Yesh Ginsburg
@yesh222
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Loves sports, especially college. Shares random thoughts that come to mind. Treat everyone as if they're discussing in good faith unless they prove otherwise.
Joined April 2011
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Neil Gorsuch is unique because he is, quite possibly, the only major and impactful political figure in American history who thinks that we have to honor our treaties with Native Americans based on what they assumed the treaties meant, not how America acted about them.
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I love this picture because it pretends conservatives haven't changed at all since 2008. Ask any strong Republican now what they think of John McCain. You can't claim the right is at the same spot as it was in 2012. The right is very proud of the fact that it's nowhere near there
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Bad news (real data) for Dems in Florida.
There's a city council election in Jacksonville today.
First of all, turnout is massively up. It's over 5% higher than it was in May 2019 with some precincts left.
In 2019, Dems won this seat by 16%. GOP about to win it by 4% today.
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Dear lord.
The United States is going to be the only major democracy that doesn’t respond to current left-liberalism crises with a massive conservative insurgency because our conservative movement decided to worship Donald Trump.
Tories (41%) Open 18-Point Lead Over Liberals (23%), Lead in Every Region Except Quebec | Ipsos
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Arizona Dems were so expecting a red wave that they strategically did not even run enough Arizona House candidates to win a majority.
Pretty clear that Lake/Masters dragged the ticket down enough that Dems would have had the majority had they fielded a full slate.
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Even giving the most charitable bonus to Democrats for the uncontested races, Republicans currently lead the Congressional total vote in Arizona by 7%.
Kari Lake is running 7.5% behind a generic Arizona Republican.
Blake Masters is running **12.5%** behind a generic Republican.
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Semi-final numbers, accounting for uncontested races:
GOP Congressional candidates in Arizona: +6.3%
Kari Lake ran 7.1% behind Arizona Republicans. Blake Masters ran 11.4% behind AZ Republicans.
Kimberly Yee ran 4.9% ahead of AZ Republicans.
Yee ran 16.3% ahead of Masters.
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A census bureau mistake saved three House seats in Democratic that should have been axed and cost seats in two Republican states (Florida and Texas) and we're just kinda moving on from it?
BREAKING: 14 state populations were significantly miscounted in 2020, the Census Bureau said — a revelation that comes after the numbers were already used to divvy up House seats for the next decade.
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@EsotericCD
Press charges for assault. If the school is mask-optional, the teacher has no right to force one on your child without your or your child's permission.
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He's avoiding public appearances so it's going unnoticed, but he has visibly aged since he left the Oval Office. He does not look good.
“It’s nasty out there,” Trump said as he arrived in Iowa. It’s -10 degrees here
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@carlquintanilla
@charliebilello
This chart shows our inflation rate is about 15% higher than the next-worst developed country.
Sounds pretty unique to me.
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This sounds impressive until you realize that there are literally only three GOP nominees alive.
Trump is the only GOP nominee alive that’s been able to to win either PA, WI, or MI.
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@CAFranchise
@tencor_7144
It's a bit more than that, actually. It's a form of originalism that asks, "What were the Tribes expecting when they signed this?" Even if the text was one that can be read as favorable to the U.S., he wants to know the intent when signed.
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It's going to be a long time until I can ride a New York City subway without wondering if some of the people in the car with me were those in Times Square openly cheering the murders of my brothers and sisters yesterday.
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I am extremely happy for Griner and her family. She certainly didn’t deserve what happened to her.
This is absolutely a foreign policy failure, not success, from Biden. And treating it like a success will have consequences in the future.
Moments ago I spoke to Brittney Griner.
She is safe.
She is on a plane.
She is on her way home.
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@AdamKinzinger
What about this isn't protected? It's not directly advocating violence in any way. It has a reasonable interpretation of "make sure to buy guns," which by definition makes it protected.
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This image, courtesy of
@politicalmath
, is the United States Surgeon General under Trump proving a point, indeed. The "non-expert" he's talking to got the pre-print to retract and correct their data, and no one on ACIP did notice it.
Absolutely yikes.
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@KyleMartinsen_
@MaxNordau
It's quite obvious what that is. It wasn't so well done, but just because you don't get the reference doesn't mean that it was crazy.
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DeSantis Derangement Syndrome is just insane. I don't get it.
He's doing a tour called "early treatment saves lives" where he's promoting FDA-recommended therapy that's proven effective, as well as pushing the vaccine at every single stop, and people are calling him evil for it.
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DeSantis is such a worse candidate then Trump. Here's my math proving that in a full-turnout Presidential election, he'd only do about 6% better than Trump.
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I have no idea what people watched last night. Biden was completely lucid and had an excellent grasp of details the entire time.
The problem is that he looks and feels really old. He mumbles and stutters and can’t beat the stutter all the time anymore, which gives off old vibes.
Krugman four months ago: "As anyone who has recently spent time with Biden (and I have) can tell you, he is in full possession of his faculties — completely lucid and with excellent grasp of detail."
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Talk about burying the lede.
I've been quiet on this story for a bunch of reasons, but the AP spiking a story and alerting a political candidate to potential oppo is a massive event. It means the largest news syndicate in the country (world?) is explicitly partisan.
Finally,
@realdailywire
can report that the AP newswire had the Susanna Gibson porn candidate story a week before the Washington Post did, tipped off Gibson about it-leading her to get the videos removed-and decided not to run the story, despite seeming obviously newsworthy.
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Conservatives don’t seem to understand that nothing about anything terrible Biden does will matter—to media or the average citizen—as long as Trump is the presumed Republican leader. Because no matter what, everything else pales in comparison to… *gesticulates wildly*
What should be a bombshell report and the talk of Washington, much less the rest of the country, about one of the worst fiascos in American history is buried so far under an Independence Day weekend news dump that you can hardly hear it.
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Kimberly Yee, the incumbent Treasurer who was considered the likely nominee for Governor before Lake jumped in the race, is easily winning reelection, up 11.5% right now. She's running 12% ahead of Kari Lake, 17% ahead of Blake Masters.
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Every real-life Trump supporter I know says they are voting for him in the primary but they want DeSantis or Haley to win so that they can move on from Trump's drama.
It's a *baffling* dynamic.
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Gaetz's logic makes zero sense.
If McCarthy survives with five Dem votes, it means McCarthy caved.
But for Gaetz to win, it would require the assistance of 212 Democratic votes.
Why are people letting Gaetz get away with this nonsense?
Gaetz: “I have enough Republicans where at this point next week one of two things will happen: Kevin McCarthy won't be the Speaker of the House or he'll be the Speaker of the House working at the pleasure of the Democrats, and I'm at peace with either result because the American
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@gdatz
@UWMadison
She’s saying “martyrs,” but her accent makes it tough.
Of course, the “by any means necessary” chant shows they support the minders, too.
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I want to point to an unnoticed line: The towns that were massacred were not "illegal under international law." They were in Israel proper, inside lines every country agrees are Israel's.
They think that Jews living anywhere in Israel are illegal and worthy of death.
This one might be the worst I’ve seen so far. Students for Justice in Palestine at
@UVA
says Hamas brutality makes them “hopeful for the future of Palestine.”
The indiscriminate murder of Jews is “a step towards a free Palestine,” they say.
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It's a citywide race, and this result will more or less match the average partisanship of the city for the past decade or so. But this was a Dem-held seat, and losing it in this fashion has to hurt the local party. And doesn't portend well in other races.
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No one will notice or care, but Ryan Lochte just passed Mark Spitz as the second-most decorated male Olympian swimmer ever.
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The Biden CDC––doing exactly what Biden and Harris warned us Trump would do during the campaign––is poised to set childhood vaccinations for preventable diseases back half a century. This should be an extremely big deal.
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This Gretchen Whitmer story is bonkers and the complete lack of coverage it's getting in left-leaning media outlets is all the proof you'll ever need to call them left-leaning.
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@ClayTravis
Two million deaths was based on no social distancing or interventions. We've now intervened, and are continuing to do so.
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@_MikeMoss
@StephenLevin33
@NYCMayor
@NYGovCuomo
I'm pretty Libertarian when it comes to government intervention.
If the government has one job, it's to make sure that peoples' "not smart" decisions don't kill other people.
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Ohio Republicans have a 67-32 majority.
In an upset, 32 Dems voted with 22 Republicans to get Stephens elected Speaker over the very-slightly-more-firebrand-style Merrin. Might be a lesson for the U.S. House today...
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It's extremely telling how much online liberals are freaking out over Mu*k expressing relatively boring mainstream non-Trump Republican views. Do these people really never speak to people more conservative than them?
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@JayCaruso
@MaxNordau
When was the last time I heard someone quote friends?
Five minutes ago, actually.
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I honestly believe that most pro-Palestinian liberals are well-meaning. 20 years of relative security has made people forget why Israel does what it does to protect its people. So sometimes it feels too far or disproportionate.
I hope those people now recognize they were wrong.
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This is the kicker. Dissatisfaction with Biden is showing a GOP turnout advantage.
That is almost certain to rapidly dissipate if Trump is the nominee. If we’ve learned nothing over the last eight years, it’s that everything Trump touches is turnout jet fuel for Dems.
2024 National GE, Among Independents:
Biden 50% (+12)
Trump 38%
.
@SienaResearch
/
@nytimes
, 1,016 LV, 12/10-14
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It's amazing how Marc Elias has quietly stopped pretending to care about "defending democracy" and openly cheerleads for one party.
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Chatham County is in. Trump's lead is down to 3,600 votes.
Biden won Chatham County 11.4K to 5.3K.
That's about 68%, which is more than the margin he should have been looking for in this area to flip the state.
He's on pace with few votes left to come.
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I don't understand this thing that right-wingers do where they pretend that "an incredibly formidable Republican candidate for the year 2004" wouldn't absolutely crush Joe Biden.
Nikki Haley continues to be an incredibly formidable Republican candidate for the year 2004
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Yeah. This cartoon was very popular when it came out a decade ago. Nothing changed:
Israel: We want to survive
Hamas: We want to kill Jews
The west: Listen Israel, you're gonna have to meet halfway here, don't be unreasonable
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If a GOP nominee performed as well on average as well as Virginia Republicans did last night they would win 346 electoral votes.
Biggest losers last night: Mitch McConnell, Chris Christie and Never Trump Republicans who tried to convince us that Virginia was the perfect model of the post-Trump GOP.
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This is amazing because it shows how Trump actually feels about them if you know how to read it:
Burgum: Good Governor, no threat
Christie: Personal hatred
Haley: Scared
Pence: Over him, moved on
Scott: Possible cabinet spot
Vivek: Doesn't care
DeSantis: Absolutely terrified
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We'll get the full transcript later, but
"I vote for Kevin, not a member of the Freedom Caucus, unanimous leader of the Republican delegation, [more talking, unrest in the chamber, more talking]"
"I vote for Kevin Hern"
Is just incredible juvenile trolling. Embarrassing.
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Moreno is the only candidate who could possibly lose the general election, so of course Trump endorses him.
You know, it kinda surprises me that people who are so nervous about massive conspiracies and the deep state don’t worry that Trump is a Dem plant to destroy the GOP.
Big
#OHSen
breaking news: Trump endorses Bernie Moreno in the three way GOP Senate primary to take on Sherrod Brown. NRSC has stayed neutral thus far in the contest between Moreno, Secetary of State Frank LaRose & State Sen. Matt Dolan
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Nikki Haley does **16%** better than Trump in a key swing state, and Republicans seem to think Trump is the option more likely to win.
In a match between Biden and Republican candidate Nikki Haley, Haley is supported by 57% and Biden by 41% among registered voters. Among likely voters, it is Haley 57% and Biden 42%.
#mulawpoll
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Holy cow. This might be the best policy I've seen presented by a Presidential candidate.
Sure, he's probably going to want colleges to be right-wing indoctrination tools (he already views current ones as left-wing indoctrination). But this idea will actually fix universities.
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This is more true than even Doug realizes.
In Iowa, where Kim Reynolds is the party brand, Republicans did well (not quite as well as Florida, but well).
Everywhere that was about Trump or a Trump surrogate, the GOP underperformed (especially in swingy areas).
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This isn't a "scoop." It's public knowledge that being a Democrat is a requirement for joining the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. Republicans have their own Hispanic caucus (the Congressional Hispanic Conference).
Scoop:
@repmayraflores
was rejected from being able to join the Congressional Hispanic Caucus because she is not a Democrat.
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Lakshya is underselling here.
Gaetz performed 10 points worse than a generic R against the single worst nominee Dems put up in any House race in 2022.
Last one for today! Matt Gaetz's
@SplitTicket_
Wins-Above-Replacement scores:
2018: D+3
2020: D+6
2022: D+10
Unlike most, incumbency seems to hurt Gaetz — each cycle, his performance gets worse. Last cycle, he was 10 points worse than a generic R against a horrific Dem nominee.
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Yeah. Kari Lake is almost certainly going to win. Senate in question.
MARICOPA BALLOTS REMAINING UPDATE: ~400k total ballots remaining. 275k were dropped off on Election Day. 125k were mailed back from Saturday to Tuesday.
Election Day drop off batch likely strongly favor Republicans & the ballots that were mailed back will lean Republican.
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It takes 65,000 donors and 3% in a few polls. Can his followers get Coach on the next debate stage?
If I was on stage, I would turn any topic into football, watch me:
Abortion: “Abortion? Let me tell you Mike, the biggest abortion I’ve seen the last two years is Michigan’s defense in the college football playoff.”
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There needs to be an absolute reckoning among New York Democrats with the New York DSA. Every single Democrat in the state needs to disavow. You cannot allow members of your caucus to openly support evil like this.
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Every Republican (including DeSantis) who thinks that as of now Trump isn’t the prohibitive front-runner for 2028 is deluding themselves. Maybe by 2032 his base will accept that he’s too old.
This is going to suck again when Trump is the nominee in '28.
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If Republicans do as well as they expect next week, I doubt there will be any self-reflection.
But I wonder if anyone in the party will stop and think to themselves how much better they could have done if they weren't tied to Donald Trump on top of that.
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Seriously, what's the point of having 24-7 cable news networks if a major world figure can be assassinated and none of them bother to even mention it?
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Also, something tells me that “Glenn Youngkin’s name sounds Chinese” won’t resonate with GOP voters the way most Trump insults do. Most his on an uncomfortable reality. This is just weird.
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Kari Lake: I love Donald Trump more than I love my husband.
Donald Trump: Kari Lake is a loser because Ron DeSantis endorsed her.
Trump attacking DeSantis for endorsing Kari Lake, Mehmet Oz, Herschel Walker, and Doug Mastriano.
Under the bus you go
@KariLakeWarRoom
Now that’s chutzpah.
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I don't know what those CNN panelists are saying, but that entrance poll is **awful** for Trump.
One third of GOP intense primary voters saying they'll bail if Trump is convicted? That's... DOA numbers for November.
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@BFriedmanDC
I mean, that's pretty clearly a swastika made up of syringes, which is anti-vaccine by comparing vaccines to Nazism.
Which is crass and gross all on its own. But it's not meant to be supporting the swastika. It's saying a swastika is bad.
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This is such a disingenuous talking point and it's embarrassing that people keep making it.
PPP loans were never meant to be paid back. They were given with the intent that they be forgiven as long as they were used for payroll.
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It’s honestly astounding that in a state that’s still probably close to 60% conservative (maybe 55%) they’re going to have one of the most left-wing Senators in the country because they can’t just not nominate wackadoodles.
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Congratulations,
@UCF_Football
. The Colley Matrix, a recognized NCAA national champion selector, will have you at
#1
. UCF is in the NCAA record books as a national champion.
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The Pennsylvania GOP had their *sixth* chance since 2022 to try to flip the PA House in a Special Election. Like every other opportunity, the GOP candidate massively underperformed. Tonight, she ran 25% behind Trump's margin.
The GOP is not currently a serious political party.
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AZ-06: Juan Ciscomani just gained from that Pima drop.
That is exactly what he needed to see from the late earlies. Not over yet, but he just went from being a very slight underdog to a very slight favorite.
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Look, I still don't like DeSantis from a policy perspective.
It's very hard to deny that, from a crisis management perspective, he's the best we've seen, from either party, anywhere in this country, in decades. Possibly ever.
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Arizona Republicans could have had this woman as Governor. I'm not going to lie, it's kinda hard to actually "own the libs" more than this.
Instead they chose someone with a louder megaphone who couldn't really do anything.
Below is my response to a letter I received from the Governor's Office staff yesterday. This letter should alleviate the concerns of the Governor and her staff, and I expect to receive supporting documentation of her assertions immediately.
Full letter:
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@neontaster
@Neoavatara
She did the same thing a few weeks ago too. She tweeted obvious bait and when people said, "You're wrong," she responded with "Why do you assume I'm talking about Israel?" It's tired, transparent, and juvenile.
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@xtrixcyclex
@DrDenaGrayson
You can't sue Trump for your own stupidity. They didn't even take the drug. That requires a prescription. They took something that they bought that happens to have the compound, but also has phosphorous in it. It's the phosphate that was instantly lethal.
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Alvin Bragg should withdraw his charges because his sham political nonsense looks incredibly petty now compared to the actual indictments for real crimes handed down since. It’s embarrassing that he even filed them.
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Look, this is probably a bad or weird poll. But when your Senate candidate is running 18 points behind the top of the ticket, it's time to find a new Senate candidate.
🇺🇲 2024 GE:
@CBSNewsPoll
ARIZONA
🟥 Trump: 52% (+5)
🟦 Biden: 47%
—
AZ Senate
🟦 Gallego: 49% (+13)
🟥 Lake: 36%
——
FLORIDA
🟥 Trump: 54% (+9)
🟦 Biden: 45%
—
FL Senate
🟥 R. Scott (inc): 45% (+8)
🟦 Mucarsel-Powell: 37%
YouGov |
#4
(2.9/3.0) | 5/10-16 | 2,374 LV
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Where is the “ceasefire now” crowd on this?
In first public message since Oct. 7, Sinwar says Hamas won’t surrender . Click to read ⬇️
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This tweet is, at best, censure-worthy, and quite honestly expulsion-worthy.
Some staffer has to get thrown under the bus and Collins has to apologize. There should be no quarter for this. This is honestly more antisemitic than anything Tlaib has tweeted the last six months.
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Republican voters would rather lose with their ideal candidate than win with a less-than-perfect one.
It's a cult of personality, not a political party.
📊 NEW HAMPSHIRE 2024: Marist (A)
Biden: 52% (+7)
Trump: 45%
.
Haley: 47% (+3)
Biden: 44%
.
Biden: 51% (+9)
DeSantis: 42%
.
Biden: 44% (+3)
Trump: 41%
RFK Jr: 12%
—
Generic Ballot
Republicans: 48% (+1)
Democrats: 47%
—
1,157 RV | 1/15-17 | MoE: ±3.8%
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Starting to look like Dems exhausted their Maricopa voters in the early voting.
Dems have to hope that Kelly has good crossover appeal or wins Independent voters by a lot, because trends here are pretty ugly otherwise.
High noon update: 19k voters in the past hour for Maricopa County. Indy and Dem voters ticked slightly upwards, but only 1.5%.
Dems look to increase their vote share in the afternoon.
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I think this is very accurate.
Further, I think Trump's broad (and seemingly successful) campaign to torpedo DeSantis likely set conservative Republicans back decades, because DeSantis is their most generational talent since Reagan.
Them's the breaks when your party is a cult.
Absolutely none of the people insisting that
@RonDeSantis
has somehow run a terrible campaign – which he has not – would ever vote for anybody but Donald Trump.
None of them would vote for Ron DeSantis over Trump even if RDS had run some sort of theoretically perfect campaign,
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"The Supreme Court that includes Clarence Thomas, Sam Alito, and three Justices I appointed is awful and biased against me" is approaching peak Trump. Just incredible. How does anyone still take this man seriously?
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Here's the problem for Ohio Dems:
Turnout so far around the state (where I can find data) is a mixed bag. Some conservative areas with high turnout; some with lower. Same with liberal areas. But turnout in the deepest blue parts of Cleveland and Columbus is off the charts low.
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Look, I don’t particularly blame Bowman for not showing up at any Jewish solidarity events or rallies. He likely wouldn’t be welcome at this point anyway.
But the tokenization of the few Jews he found who agree with his priors anyway is just gross. Don’t pretend we support you.
I have spoken with Jewish members of my district every day since Hamas's brutal attacks, and they are in pain - and they do not want their pain exploited by the right wing to justify even more civilian deaths.
Make no mistake, these efforts are funded by GOP mega donors.
In
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Blocking access to a place of worship is a federal crime with up to ten years of prison if someone is injured in the process.
Biden's DOJ is currently charging people for blocking access to abortion clinics under this statute. He could stop these "protests" by charging people.
I’m appalled by the scenes outside of Adas Torah synagogue in Los Angeles. Intimidating Jewish congregants is dangerous, unconscionable, antisemitic, and un-American.
Americans have a right to peaceful protest. But blocking access to a house of worship – and engaging in violence
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Kevin McCarthy on Nancy Mace:
"I just got a text from her primary opponent. 'Why'd you spend $3M against me?'"
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They did this by beating the Trump-endorsed candidate.
Senate GOP landed their star recruit in Alabama
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Glenn Youngkin has a +22 approval rating in Virginia Beach.
I know everyone hyper-focuses on DeSantis, but the GOP would be insane not to give Youngkin a serious look for POTUS.
NEW POLL:
@ElaineLuriaVA
and
@JenKiggans
deadlocked at 45% in the latest
@WasonCenter
poll. The House race in Virginia's 2nd District is a nailbiter.
@13NewsNow
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Also, this is incredible bravery and I don’t think the average American—who cannot even fathom real consequences for refusing to sing an anthem—will ever truly appreciate this.
Iran players and head coach refuse to sing the Iranian national anthem in protest
#TeamMelli
#IRN
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The AZ GOP chair yelling at a teenager on Twitter does not seem like the most productive way to turn her party's misfortunes around to me, but what do I know.
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It might be too late, and it might have never been possible, but the Haley campaign is hitting every note it has to right now.
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@amy_hortop
@fakethom
@Markgatiss
@MyLifeAsRodney
@Twitter
I reported for encouraging self-harm. Best option there is.
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How outraged would you be if, in response to a White Supremacist rally, the local police force told Black people to avoid the area instead of ensuring that Black people are free to walk publicly anywhere in America?
Why are Jews different?
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