Joshua Yaffa
@yaffaesque
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Russia, Ukraine, and much more for @NewYorker . DMs open; write for Signal. Between Two Fires now in paperback:
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Next week, on May 4th, the paperback of BETWEEN TWO FIRES will be published (with a new cover!), a book the NYT called "deep and revealing" and The Economist said is "wonderfully insightful." Hope to get a chance to talk more about it and all things Russia
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So much about Russia’s invasion plan was really nuts, but the idea they could waltz into Ukrainian towns and install their own rule without local pushback looks so out-of-touch with reality as to be actually bizarre.
Huge turnout at a protest against the Russian occupation in Russian-occupied Kherson.
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So many stories like this: woman writes me to say her brother was detained by Russian soldiers at home in village outside Kyiv. Others saw him, hands tied, led at gun point to building Russians used as base. Four days later his body was found by side of the road, shot in back.
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This is where we’re at: a Russian investment expert pulls out a bottle on live television to toast the end of the country’s capital markets and says he’s going back to working as a dress-up Santa Claus
Эксперт по биржевым стратегиям и экономист в эфире РБК выпил за «смерть» фондового рынка в России.
Ведущая программы не ожидала ничего подобного от гостя и только лишь сказала, что «никак не будет комментировать этот флешмоб»
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Back in Kyiv after some weeks. Sun is out, people on the streets, some of my favorite cafes are back open. Russia announces it’s reducing operations near the capital—and yet, as midnight approaches, one can hear the unmistakable rumble of artillery fire on the outskirts of town.
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Things deteriorating at a rapid pace in Russia. Prosecutors office now says that offering material support to foreign states—read, Ukraine—during Russia’s “special military operation,” otherwise known as war, will be considered treason. 20 years in prison.
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Surreal and maddening to see our friend in a glass cage in a Moscow courtroom. An innocent man—decent, kind, and honest—arrested for doing his job. Every day he spends in jail is an outrage.
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One village after another outside Kyiv look like this. Homes obliterated by shelling, burnt to the ground, cars run over by tanks—and graffiti left by retreating Russian soldiers: “Thanks for the hospitality :)”
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Everyone is rightly talking about yesterday's courageous display by Marina Ovsyannikova, but let's take a moment to remember the consistent and principled courage of those Russian journalists who never had to break with the state machine b/c they never were a part of it.
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Man was in mid-thirties, had four-year old daughter. “Our souls are pained, we want to scream,” his sister wrote me. At least they found the body and could give him a proper burial. “So his daughter knows where he rests.”
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A story I never wanted to write: on my dear friend
@evangershkovich
, arrested by the F.S.B. in Russia. Waiting for you, my buddy.
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I just don’t see how even in the case of a military victory there is any sort of durable political solution available to the Kremlin. Mystifying they didn’t understand this before. Bunker syndrome is real.
Ukrainians march towards Russian soldiers while getting shot at. Everyone must watch this video.
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Again, it may be snowballs, but this is a level of boldness I haven’t observed at a Russian protest in nine years.
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Flynn got $40k to appear at RT dinner in 2015, writes
@nickschmidle
in this exhaustively reported
@NewYorker
story:
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I wish I could see what all the people in the replies saying some version of "Yeah right, sounds like a fishy story, probably made up, Western propaganda shill" would say if they stood at improvised graves in people's gardens with wailing relatives who witnessed their deaths.
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The long, gruesome story of Wagner, from Ukraine to Africa and the oil fields of Syria and back to Ukraine again, where it sent thousands of convicts into the "meat grinder." And then, fatefully, on the march to Moscow. My piece in this week's
@NewYorker
:
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Fiona Hill on watching Trump press conference with Putin in Helsinki: “I just sat there and thought, Maybe I should just fall over backwards onto the media behind me and fake a medical emergency just to stop this agony.” From gripping
@adamentous
profile:
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I spent the first two weeks of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine traveling between the Donbass, Kyiv, and Lviv. My story in next week’s
@NewYorker
on both the abject horror and solidarity that war has wrought so far:
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This family returned to their village after Russian occupation to see that soldiers lived in their house, trashed the place, left food wrappers everywhere, stole their TV and washing machine, and wrote “fuck Ukraine” on their kitchen wall.
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Spent morning driving around Kyiv. Checkpoints abound. Tense soldiers everywhere. Residential buildings hit. Still-smoking military equipment on the roads, with glass and munitions strewn about. Metro stations full of families hiding out.
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In late-February, the Russian army seized Melitopol. Two weeks later, they kidnapped the mayor, along with dozens of others. A dark, tragicomic, menacing occupation has followed. My story in this week’s
@NewYorker
:
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This story is so darkly fascinating because it's another reminder of how so many events of the past years that seemed odd or unexplained at the time were actually Russia preparing for war.
Ukraine is running out of ammunition for its Soviet-era artillery. The shortage points to a years-long sabotage campaign by Russia that’s intensified in recent months. Story with
@PaulSonne
:
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I wrote a whole book on how and why many Russians feel compelled to make compromises with a system they don't necessarily support or respect. But I'm still struggling to make sense of scenes of men taken away by the bus and planeload to a war many of them don't want to fight.
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Geopolitics aside, pity the people of Donetsk. They lived in a well-off city that hosted the 2012 UEFA cup. After Maidan and Crimea, many fell for the idea of a great and mighty Russia coming to save them. They got war instead. Now treated as pawns again.
пункт временного размещения в спортивной школе в Таганроге. здесь 364 человека, из них 117 – дети
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For
@NewYorker
, I surveyed the world of Russian trolls, disinfo, and active measures: such threats exist, but to "exaggerate their prevalence and potency" risks providing "an overly convenient explanation for much of what is ugly and false in our politics"
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Different angle to same snowball pelting as above. Am frankly surprised police took this so calmly. My hunch is that won’t last, and there well may be a crackdown in coming days.
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This is at once a diss and an accidental self-own: no one knows how to move on another nation state like the U.S. does.
Senior U.S. defense official: "They simply don't have a lot of experience of moving on another nation state ... on this level and size."
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Totally insane video and instant historic document of late-stage Putinism: “Putin’s chef” Prigozhin himself in a prison recruiting new mercs for Wagner, promising amnesty after six months if you survive, a burial if you don’t—and a bullet if you run away.
Ex-convict and human turd-beetle Prigozhin, who sued
@Bellingcat
in normal court (and lost) and in kangaroo Russian court (and won) over us reporting he runs and funds the Wagner PMC, here on video recruiting Russian convicts for his "own private PMC" Wagner.
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A notable defection, but not a critical one. It's been years since Chubais wielded real power, yet may have symbolic meaning, especially as a signal to other figures in the elite. Let's see how he lands: if the water is warm, will others jump next?
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Now this is really unlike anything we’ve seen at a Moscow protest, basically, ever. Scary escalation.
Yep not your same old Russian protests. The car belongs to the FSB & the driver has been hospitalized with an eye injury, state news says
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This
@nytopinion
piece contains both genetic *and* anthropological factoids about Russia, like how “corruption is in the Russian DNA” and “sharing’s not the Russian way.” Also, who knew, there is a Russian word that means “lying.”
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Yeah and the text of Putin's actual presidential order differs from his televised speech. In latter, he emphasized "partial" mobilization, but former says nothing about that: defense ministry has license to draft basically anyone. And I suspect it will.
Shoigu yesterday said they're drafting 300,000 people, but the actual number is classified, and based on reports coming out of the regions, feels like it could be more...
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For
@NewYorker
, I wrote about the excruciating, unthinkable, but vitally important work of Ukrainian psychologists who treat victims of wartime rape. “In my consciousness, the world has become a tougher, more violent place,” one therapist told me.
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In one village, a Russian APC rolled through the streets firing at people in front of their homes. In another, soldiers shot two sons in front of their mother. And in Novyi Bykiv, prisoners were held in a cellar, with four taken out to be shot.
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My reflections on a horrible and terrifying day for Ukraine. Started like a nightmare at five in the morning, and I’m afraid to think about all that’s still to come.
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I’m wary of most info floating around on what’s happening inside Russia’s security services—except when it comes from
@AndreiSoldatov
, an unparalleled expert in the field. Fascinating and important.
Putin appears to be truly unhappy with the FSB in Ukraine: he attacked the 5 Service SOiMS (FSB's foreign Intelligence branch). Sergei Beseda, head of the Service, and his deputy Bolukh, head of the DOI, placed under house arrest, according to my sources inside.
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Well this is both fucking insane and somehow also grimly predictable: founder of site exposing torture and corruption in Russian prisons is nearly killed by a sniper who hunted him down in France. But he noticed the beam and managed to get out of the way!
Основателя Гулагу.нет Владимира Осечкина пытался убить киллер во Франции. О будущем покушении предупреждал Христо Грозев
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Can’t think of a more high-profile or potentially telling case of Western tech giants bowing to Russian state pressure than this.
⚡ Apple and Google have deleted jailed Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny’s apps from their online stores as voting gets underway in parliamentary elections overshadowed by a crackdown on Russia's opposition
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For thirty-nine days, Chernihiv was surrounded and besieged, with no water or electricity, pummeled by Russian bombs and artillery. People were killed in their apartments and as they waited in line for bread. My story for
@NewYorker
on the aftermath:
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Artillery fire that sounds like a whistle, a swarm of flies, the wild roar of a dinosaur: my dispatch for
@NewYorker
from the Donbass, where the shelling is constant, Ukrainian soldiers often never see their enemy, and Russia makes fitful, plodding gains.
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Never seen this before
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In City Hospital No. 2, I met a woman whose story—her whole presence, really—affected me as rawly as anyone I've met in nearly two months of war. Meet ninety-two year-old Nina Rogacheva:
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Navalny announces he’s returning to Russia from Berlin this Sunday. I honestly have no confident prediction of what’s gonna happen when he steps off the plane.
Вопрос "возвращаться или нет" передо мной не стоял никогда. Просто потому, что я не уезжал. Я оказался в Германии, приехав в неё в реанимационной коробке.
17 января, в воскресенье, я вернусь домой рейсом "Победы".
Встречайте 😉
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War is terrible, and this one is no different. My dispatch from Kyiv for
@NewYorker
on the first days after Russia’s invasion. “I don’t tell them any fairy tales,” a mother told me of how she explains what’s happening to her daughters.
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Russian Duma creates legal framework for declaration of war and mobilization. Putin giving himself options and trying to create an effect on the audience: at home, in Ukraine, the West. Or maybe we're indeed about to see whole new chapter in this grim war.
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Paul Whelan was just sentenced to 16 years in prison for espionage. Has been in jail since his arrest in Moscow in December 2018. Trial was closed, so press/public/diplomats never got a chance to hear alleged evidence in the case.
⚡️Мосгорсуд приговорил гражданина США Уилана к 16 годам колонии за шпионаж против России:
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A very dark first, but definitely not last such case: local head of Navalny organization in Ufa is arrested and charged with extremism - but retroactively, for her involvement *before* Russian state outlawed Navalny movement.
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Luke Mogelson on the living nightmare in Bucha. If only this was the story of one town in Ukraine, and not dozens, or even hundreds.
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OMG. Just extraordinary. Like in a Bond film when a villain clumsily can't help himself from laying out the whole plot. I wouldn't want to be a certain FSB officer named Konstantin Kudryavtsev right now.
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The durability of Putin's rule has long rested on most people's (even those within the system) cynical and detached indifference to it. They won't stick their necks out to challenge it. Nor to defend it. Hence many sitting on the sidelines, even now.
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As far as I can tell, the first time a Russian official of significance has actually come out and explicitly called for nuke use, as opposed to wink-wink dancing around the issue.
CHECHEN LEADER KADYROV: RUSSIA SHOULD CONSIDER USING LOW YIELD NUCLEAR WEAPON IN UKRAINE AFTER LYMAN DEFEAT - Reuters
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Evan was not unaware or naive about the risks. It's not like he was in Russia because no one bothered to tell him it was dangerous. He is a brave, committed, professional journalist who traveled to Russia to report on stories of import and interest.
The US, and the West in general, really needs to start telling its citizens that travel to Russia there's a high chance they'll be taken hostage by the Russian state for use in prisoner exchanges. It's nakedly obvious what's happening with
@evangershkovich
.
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For this week’s
@NewYorker
, I traced the unique, colorful, and ultimately tragic fate of Lovett Fort-Whiteman, whose life spanned from Texas to Siberia, and is the only African American known to have died in the Gulag.
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Seems like a good time to remember this tweet from head of RT from day after Navalny's poisoning, in which she suggested he probably suffered from sudden loss in blood sugar--you know, which produces similar symptoms to Novichok.
Вот вы не поверите, но еще вчера я сказала дома, что у Навального, похоже, запущенная гипогликемия.
Это когда внезапно резко падает сахар в крови.
У меня бывает такое, когда очень долго не ем. Вдруг ледяной пот градом, дрожь, дикая слабость и понимаешь, что уходишь.
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It’s also united by disbelief and seething, white-hot anger. Putin wanted to enshrine the inviolable unity of Russia and Ukraine. Instead he’s torn the two countries apart, perhaps irreparably.
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Utterly shocked, thrilled, grateful, and very, very happy to have won this year’s Orwell Prize for BETWEEN TWO FIRES. A meaningful and deeply gratifying honor.
Congratulations to Joshua Yaffa (
@yaffaesque
), winner of The Orwell Prize for Political Writing 2021 for 'Between Two Fires: Truth, Ambition and Compromise in Putin's Russia' (
@grantabooks
). Yaffa's "haunting" book "illuminates the ways in which authoritarian rule is maintained."
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Up until the end I thought Russia would force through some kind of provocation or false-flag or invent a saleable reason, however transparently false, for starting a war. Instead Putin just went for it. War for its own sake, unmasked.
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I don’t think today dramatically changes the calculus for either Kremlin or opposition, but one new feature I haven’t seen before were scenes of protestors fighting back, even if with snowballs. (Links below.) If that grows and becomes new normal, then we’re in uncharted waters.
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Actually serious and very unclear how the Kremlin responds. Pugacheva is as close to universally loved national royalty as it gets—admired as much or more by otherwise apolitical, war-ignoring masses across the country than urban intelligentsia.
Alla Pugacheva publicly asks Russia's Justice Ministry to list her as a foreign agent with her husband, Maxim Galkin. Her message also calls for an end to "the deaths of our boys for illusory aims that make our country a pariah and weigh down the lives of its citizens."
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My book, “Between Two Fires,” on the dilemmas of compromise in Putin’s Russia, is officially out today—what a funny thrill to be able to say “available in a bookstore near you.” Will be grateful if you read, share, tell me what you think.
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I'm thinking of friends and colleagues at
@tvrain
,
@novaya_gazeta
,
@meduzaproject
,
@mediazzzona
,
@bbcrussian
, and lots more, who have faced legal (and physical) threats for their work and yet never caved or compromised. And now most of which have been forced to leave Russia.
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The composure and professionalism of
@OmarJimenez
here, compared with the arbitrary and capricious use of administrative force of those arresting him, is a scene I’ve alas seen before...reporting on protests in Russia.
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Poster from 16 year-old Russian protestor: “My mom says that sometime long ago Putin wasn’t president.” (Credit
@styazshkin
)
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On a wild 24 hours and the coup that wasn't, for
@NewYorker
. Short version: Prigozhin stopped short of Moscow, but Putin looks far weaker.
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Seems that Twitter also got request from Russian state to delete post w/info on Navalny’s “Smart Voting” plan. But unlike Google and Apple they declined—likely a function of Twitter having no office in Russia nor significant revenue from Russian market?
Оказывается Роскомнадзор жаловался вот на этот твит. Но твиттер ничего не удалил. Молодец твиттер
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In this week’s
@NewYorker
, my story about the thorny and complicated question of wartime collaborators—who did what and why under occupation—and what to do with them after liberation. Set in the city of Izyum, where everybody knows everyone.
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I’m getting very confused by Russia’s messaging. And also wondering if Lavrov is among those who had no idea invasion would happen until it did.
FM
#Lavrov
: The goal of Russia’s special military operation is to stop any war that could take place on Ukrainian territory or that could start from there.
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When it comes to uncensored political speech with a wide audience in Russia, YouTube is where the action is. Thus a hugely important milestone that
@Google
has removed a video from Navalny’s team under Russian state pressure.
⚡️Ютуб заблокировал видео с рекомендациями Умного голосования на выборах в Госдуму
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What I’m imagining the Kremlin sees as self-satisfied trolling or otherwise screwing with Navalny and his supporters—closed-off airport, redirected flight, etc—looks (to my eye at least) more like a display of queazy nervousness.
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Consistency matters. Be rightly outraged over Russian strikes that cause wanton civilian death and suffering in Ukraine. And don't look away—and ask questions of think-tankers and officials in DC—when US-made munitions are used to kill civilians in Yemen.
The Saudi and Emirati coalition carried out three attacks in Yemen in January 2022 that killed at least 80 civilians, including 3 children, and injured 156, including 2 children. One, with a Raytheon-made laser-guided missile kit, hit a detention facility.
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For
@NewYorker
, I traveled to the far reaches of Siberia to write about the accelerating thaw of the world’s permafrost, and what that heralds for the planet. (Nothing good.) Met some fascinating scientists and 24,000 year old microorganisms along the way.
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@nytopinion
I know this mental exercise has gotten old, but sadly it’s still necessary: would the Times publish a purported analytical piece explaining how corruption is in the Indian/Thai/Haitian/etc DNA, or that sharing is not the Moroccan/Peruvian/Ghanaian/etc way?
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Just one crazy detail after another. Kudos to
@saitomri
and
@m_tsvetkova
for a tale not only full of rich detail (bribes at Chernobyl, SBU officers caught with cash and jewels) but really important info on Russia's war plans.
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With missiles raining down on Kyiv nightly, the city’s metro stations have become improvised bomb shelters. I spent the night in one with my friend
@berdynskykh_k
and her family. A tragic snapshot of a city at war.
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Excited, nervous, thrilled to share my forthcoming book, Between Two Fires, a portrait of modern Russia and the dilemmas (and advantages, as well as costs) of compromise with the Putin system. On sale Jan 14, available for preorder now. More info here:
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“Russia’s Most Wanted”—my story for this week’s
@NewYorker
on Bill Browder and the many twists and turns in the legacy of the Magnitsky Act, from Trump Tower to Helsinki:
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It strikes me of note (not that this has any bearing or reflection on Putin's actual decision making) that there's very little sense in Moscow of people having any idea or interest in fact that their country may be days away from launching a devastating invasion of a neighbor
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This
@meduzaproject
piece lays the story: Ukraine's offensives freaked out Kremlin political technologists. Now they want to rush referendums to scare off Kyiv from trying to retake more occupied territory. If they continue, then general mobilization.
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I spent a long while trying to find an answer to a question many have been asking about Russia’s Covid vaccine: “Was it a scientific breakthrough or the dubious result of a rushed process?” I learned a lot in the process. Spoiler alert: I got it myself.
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Reporting from Ukraine these days is stopping in a village to ask 25-year-old Vanya and his uncle for directions, then learning he was held for 16 days by Russian soldiers in Kupyansk, where they beat him until he couldn’t stand and hooked up electroshock cables to his ears.
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First news of Evan from Lefortovo: prison monitor Alexei Melnikov paid him a visit. Not much detail, but we'll take what we can get. Apparently Evan is reading Grossman's "Life and Fate." Most important: "When we visited, he was cheerful, we joked a lot."
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Came to have a look at Moscow protests today. Tverskaya is blocked, so I ended up on a side street where the crowd was chanting “We’re not armed” (as a kind of “we come in peace” message, I guess). Hard to judge size/scale/anything from here.
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I wrote a book on Russia guided by the sociologist Yuri Levada’s idea of the “wily man”—“a person who “requires self-deception for the sake of his own self-preservation.” Turns out a similar type of “wiliness” is increasingly endemic in America, too.
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Everyone is just as fallen and compromised as everyone else, we’re all guided by venal self-interest—it’s a narrative I often encounter among Russia’s political elite, and I see it in America now, too. More soon on
@AmanpourCoPBS
.
New Yorker Moscow correspondent Joshua Yaffa explains how the U.S. is becoming more like Russia.
@hari
@yaffaesque
@NewYorker
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I know there's a lot going on this week but 🚨🚨🚨 new Evgenia Arbugaeva images from the Russian Arctic in
@NatGeo
:
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“I just fact-checked a fucking article!” he said. “Nothing I do today will be harder than that.” True words from Daniel Radcliffe, and a great meta-testament to brilliant and heroic
@NewYorker
fact-checking dep’t:
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This is as hard to read as it is necessary. I’m afraid we’re only beginning to understand scale of atrocities as Russian forces leave areas they controlled for weeks.
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And Ukraine these days is a place of remarkable morale and solidarity. Putin thought Zelensky would flee and Ukrainians give in—but the opposite has happened, with society mounting a historic display of resilience.
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It's become cliché to say that a criminal investigation is a sign of a job well done for a Russian journalist, but that doesn't make it any less dark and unjust.
@AndreiSoldatov
clearly being pursued for his pathbreaking reporting on the FSB.
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I've long known Oleg Orlov of Memorial as a man of great dignity and quiet bravery. Here he is on Red Square, preparing for Victory Day, with a poster that reads: "USSR 1945: overcame fascism. Russia 2022: overcome by fascism." He was quickly arrested.
На Красной площади задержали «мемориальцев» Олега Орлова и Ирину Галкову. Их доставили в ОП «Китай-город», защищать их будет адвокат от ОВД-Инфо Михаил Бирюков
Фото предоставлено Михаилом Бирюковым
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Perhaps a banal observation, but when I moved to Moscow in 2012, things were certainly tense/fraught/etc, but idea that Navalny’s entire org would be banned as extremist and state could try to kill Dmitry Bykov with poison would have struck me as a bit too hard-core to imagine.
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For now, looks like Putin is wary of the raised expectations and deliverables of a real war, not to mention turning its passive and cost-free supporters into real participants by sending their sons, husbands, etc to fight.
May 9 parade in Moscow and Putin’s speech is over. As expected, no declaration of war, victory or general mobilization
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I go to Goodwine on every trip to Kyiv and have bought wine from Vika. Every loss in this war is a tragedy—this one a personal reminder that death these days is not distant or unfamiliar, but rather, as a Ukrainian friend put it, one or two handshakes away
This is Vika, one of the people killed today by an Iranian suicide drone in Kyiv. The 34 year-old was a sommelier at Goodwine. She was the only female sommelier there. “She sincerely loved wine and her work... We loved Vika madly," her employer Goodwine wrote on Facebook…
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Russia's threat to invade Ukraine is, in large measure, a dispute over history, specifically that of NATO enlargement in the 90s. I spoke with
@e_sarotte
, who literally wrote the book on the subject, revealing a lot of interesting truths in the process.
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Damning quote from Moscow cardiologist in
@MoscowTimes
story on Russia's wealthiest buying up ventilators that is as infuriating as it is grimly predictable
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This is insane. How can this be tenable for Russia.
Day 14. Good morning. Video: Kherson - the only regional capital that has fallen. Ukrainian crowd of protestors gets angry after Russian troop start beating up a protestor. Russians open fire (in the air) and that does not stop but mobilize protestors. Pure anger and no fear
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Just when you thought an insane 24 hrs can’t get any more strange. Okay, so it’s over, for real? But what is “the plan?” Can Prigozhin really survive Putin calling him a traitor and sanctioning his destruction? What the hell was this all about?
🚨 Prigozhin says Wagner is standing its coup attempt down and going back to Ukraine "according to the plan."
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To that end, now may well be the time to show your support for
@meduzaproject
, which is relying on crowdfunded donations to support their continued work—which, I don't think I have to explain, is more vital than ever
Folks, Meduza has redesigned its crowdfunding after being disconnected from our supporters in Russia. We now turn to you—our global audience—to replace those 30k donators. Help us keep Russians & the world informed about the monstrous war against Ukraine.
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