Alex (xelan)
@xelan_gta
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Highlighting crucial Canadian Real Estate & Macro Trends with a spotlight on Toronto Metro (GTA). Contact for bespoke market research(＄).
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Here is my paid newsletter for April 2024.
📉GTA resale weakened, inventory ⬆️
🏙️GTA rent prices declined YoY
🏗️High completions impact the market
🧑🤝🧑Less international students prefer 🇨🇦
💰 2024 budget will help 🏘️
🏔️ Spike in business insolvencies receded
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Canada’s population growth strategy is a failure on so many levels.
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Housing market in 🇨🇦 is the most unaffordable since the data exists.
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Canada was the top destination for international students in 2022🏆
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Reading the comments about 70%+ price correction.
🔢Here is a friendly reminder of how price correction math works:
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🔥 Canada issued a record🏆 number of International Study Permits in March and throughout Q1 2024.
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🔥 GTA Active inventory update
Resale inventory continues to 🚀
A big market shift is happening in June.
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⚠️Toronto Metro (GTA) weekly active inventory update.
Resale inventory increased significantly in June when it should typically be declining.
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Population outflow from Ontario to other provinces is accelerating.
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Many believe 🇨🇦 real estate market will stabilize by spring 2023 and return back to growth.
While nothing is off the table this chart makes me very skeptical about it. We are at the worst affordability in 30+ years.
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Annual population growth in 🇨🇦 should drop from 1.2M to about 240,000 for 2025-2027.
I did more accurate modelling regarding the recent non-permanent residents'(NPR) reduction announcement, and here are the results. Estimate of cumulative outflows increased to about 800,000.
1/5
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🚨 Toronto Metro (GTA) weekly active inventory update.
The resale inventory increase was so big that I had to double-check the data.
If the trend doesn't change a significant market weakening is expected for September👀
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Or, for sligtly over $1M CAD you can buy a much bigger unit in the world's tallest building overlooking world's largest choreographed fountain show.
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Here is a cheat sheet for the mortgage rates' impact on the maximum available mortgage amount for homebuyers.
Inspired by
@daniel_foch
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@BenRabidoux
I keep wondering if the growth in public sector employment is correlated to the productivity decline🤔
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Housing Affordability comparison between Australia🇦🇺, US 🇺🇸, and Canada 🇨🇦.
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Toronto Metro (GTA) weekly active inventory update.
Both rental and resale inventories continue to grow.
#Tore
#torontorealestate
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A friendly reminder that Canadian real estate market is not uniform.
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🔥Toronto is officially the most expensive metro market in Canada, beating Vancouver in January!
A trend that I flagged in my Sep 2021 newsletter and was watching closely since then.
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🔥The Bank of Canada's modelling confirms an annual population growth drop in 🇨🇦 from 1.27 million to about 300,000 for the next three years.
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Toronto Metro (GTA) weekly active inventory update.
Resale inventory continues to accumulate, with combined resale and rental inventory now exceeding🏆 the peak observed in October 2020 at the onset of the pandemic.
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Here is a visual for that data.
Homeownership rates of young adults on the decline: 2021 Census
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Just successfully negotiated a $175/mo rent reduction for 12 months with my PBR landlord. (Well below my sign in rate from 2018)
Here is how:
- Be a good tenant
- Present the case
- Include comparables
- Be ready to move out
My DM is open if you have any questions.
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🔥GTA weekly active inventory update.
Resale inventory continues to accumulate rapidly.⚠️
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🧵MPR by the Bank of Canada was very insightful today. I'll start with my favourite chart. Homeowners have so much savings that even if they lose jobs it requires 6-8 months to drain savings to pre-pandemic levels.🤯
Why Bank of Canada is surprised by robust consumption?🤷♂️
1/7
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Toronto Metro (GTA) weekly active inventory update. Buildup continues.
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Affordability for homebuyers and math for investors in GTA are currently the worst on record.
Down payments sourced from financial markets are impacted and those sourced from home equity are about to be impacted as well.
Pretty bad setup for housing demand until those reverse👀
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This is one of the best examples of why interest rate increases take time to have a full impact.
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A RE agent called me and said while panic is out today is a unique opportunity to buy a property.
Why would I invest in RE if stocks are offering 20% discount today and RE is at peak valiation?🤔
Watch all asset classes during this downturn to get a clue where money will go.
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In the light of 🇨🇦 Canada credit rating downgrade let me remind you about our total debt level.
BoC and government is trying to narrow your focus on the government debt part to ease concerns about the deficit but here is the full picture.
(Q4 2019 data)
🚀to the top.
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Toronto Metro (GTA) weekly active inventory update.
Resale inventory exceeded 20,000 reaching the highest level since 2018.
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CIBC is providing insight into the financial resilience of 🇨🇦 households.
No surprise housing markets are holding up.
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Despite record population growth in 🇨🇦, rental vacancies for higher-priced rentals in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) continue to climb, surpassing x2.5 the pre-pandemic levels.👀
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Lowest new construction condo sales in the GTA in the past 9 years.
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📚For those who are interested in my views on the current housing market slowdown.
Long read, lots of opinions, unique stats, still a learning curve for me.
This one won't be sent by email.
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GTA active resale inventory continues to accumulate rapidly. In fact, about 80% of monthly amount of inventory increase normally expected for March due to seasonality happened within the last week.
❄️Cooling down narrative continues (pending sales data).
Rental inventory is flat.
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GTA market weekly update.
After a brief pause during the Spring Break(SB), active resale listings shot up again.
Kudos to
@nasmadotali
,
@daniel_foch
,
@areacode416
, and other RE industry experts who correctly identified SB-related impact and set accurate future expectations.
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👀Potentially a turning point for the GTA resale market.
High-frequency data is pointing to the growth of active resale inventory beyond the seasonal pattern with a sharp acceleration in the last week.
There is never certainty with early indicators so take it with 🧂
1/2
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Toronto Metro (GTA) weekly active inventory update.
Both resale and rental inventory continue to accumulate.
#torontorealestate
#tore
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🚨Toronto Metro(GTA) weekly active inventory update.
The resale inventory is accumulating rapidly, with the seasonal target for June 1 already exceeded.👀
It's now barely below the 2023 peak.
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The worst financial stress for 🇨🇦 property owners is still ahead.
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GTA weekly active listings update.
The upward trajectory for resale inventory is intact for now. Inventory grew by 934 listings compared to the last week.
Rental inventory continues to decline.
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GTA condo investment cash flows continue to deteriorate, especially when the principal portion is excluded.
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Weekly GTA Active inventory update.
Resale inventory 🚀
⚠️At this pace historical average for active resale inventory will be achieved within 2 months.
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"Based on information we obtained from Urbanation, out of the 30,000 condo units that were supposed to be launched in 2022 in the GTA, no less than 10,000 have been cancelled or put on hold. And the situation in the purpose-built space is even worse." - CIBC
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Toronto Metro weekly active listings update.
Inventory buildup continues.
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🏗️The number of units in the Toronto Metro construction queue exceeded 90k units.
This is almost 3 years' worth of housing supply, based on today's rate of completions.
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So far every month in 2022 Canada issued a record number of new international study permits.
Cumulative 2022 Jan-Apr new study permits are 33% higher than the previous record set in 2021.
This housing demand goes under the radar with poor/no supply planning by municipalities.
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Toronto Metro (GTA) weekly active inventory update.
Resale inventory continues to build up.
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Toronto Metro (GTA) weekly active inventory update.
Resale inventory buildup continues.
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GTA weekly active inventory update.
👀Pay close attention to resale inventory accumulation.
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I see many are retweeting it so I'll bite as well. This is a hell of a misleading piece of data. When the overall market is 📈, all sales are migrating to higher price ranges. On a YoY basis, this trend interferes with the recent 📉.
In reality, GTA luxury is leading the slowdown
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Population growth estimate for GTA is only released once a year and I can't stress enough the importance of this data, especially the outflows portion of it.
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Toronto Metro (GTA) weekly active inventory update.
Active resale inventory exceeded the month-end seasonal target confirming that another resale inventory buildup period has started.
🚨Expect market weakening ahead.
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Massive changes related to international students in 🇨🇦 announced today.
➡️Cap with reduction as much as 50%+
➡️No PGWP for community colleges
➡️No work permits for spouses(some exceptions)
Will share more details later but looks significant.
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Unpopular opinion: What if strong sales # this summer is not only due to deferred spring demand but also autumn's one pulled forward because nobody went on vacation this summer?🤔
If that theory is correct sellers are in for a weaker seasonal demand this fall.
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Hold property for 10 years and you will be fine! - says almost every realtor.
Alberta’s reality:
“They bought it for $910,000 in 2008. It has an estimated present value of $625,000, 31 per cent less than they paid.”
And that doesn’t account for inflation.
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👀 commodity prices - the worst nightmare of the central bankers is playing out.
They went all-in on “transitory inflation” narrative by rising rates much later than they would normally do.
Stock/Real Estate markets, you are on your own now.
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Important milestone.
“Bank of Canada Ending Pandemic Program That Helped Real Estate Prices Surge”
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Hi there, my name is Alex, but you know me as xelan. Before you asked what the hell just happened here let me explain.
I am excited to present you my new project🍾:
Subscription contains both free &paid options so check it out, it has some cool stuff.
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Toronto Metro(GTA) weekly active inventory update.
Resale inventory continues to trend above seasonality in August.
Rental inventory is slowly growing as well.
Combined inventory is the highest since the 2020 pandemic spike, exceeding 2022.👀
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Interesting fact.
Between Apr 1, 2020 and Apr 1, 2021 in 🇨🇦:
* Population⬆️ by 153,155
* Housing completions: 188,100 units
(1 unit houses 2.4 persons)
This is the type of fundamental which matters and matters a lot even though that excess supply is not really felt right now.
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A 💪start for inputs into 2022 population growth in 🇨🇦
Immigration is running at an annualized rate of 470k (SAAR) so far.
New Study permits 👇
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Have you seen the articles about the growing housing bubble in the US 🇺🇸? I did.
Americans are spending 14-15% of household income on mortgage payments when buying a typical house.
In Canada 🇨🇦, it's over 40% according to NBF.🤷♂️
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GTA Weekly active inventory update.
Resale inventory growth accelerated compared to the previous week, rising by 400+ units since then.
Growth is not typical for this time of the year.
Rental inventory is relatively stable.
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It's all talk. All you need to know is that government is ramping up immigration while unemployment is high.
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Toronto Metro population grew by only 15,924 between July 1, 2020 and July 1, 2021.
During the same time, more than 2x units were completed. That raises the question about the strong rebound of the rental market.🤔
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Toronto Metro (GTA) weekly active inventory update.
There was a pretty rapid increase in rental inventory👀
Resale one continued to build up as well.
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@RobMcLister
It's an interesting take.
If HELOCs provide a lot of fuel for the market on the way up, why do you think those are not going to turn into a systemic risk on the way down?
Aren't HELOCs callable?
Using equity to bid up prices and create more equity is a recipe for disaster IMO.
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GTA Weekly active inventory update.
Resale inventory increased by +733 compared to the last week. Traditionally May is the peak for active inventory so any further increases will go against the seasonality.
Rental inventory seems to be stable for now.
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In February, the average rent price in Toronto dropped below last year's level.
Data from the fantastic platform run by
@RealosophyRE
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GTA new construction sales plummeted to the lowest level since at least 2016.
If nothing is sold, almost nothing will be built.
Important to note that developers are proactively adjusting to changes by reducing new launches. The number of unsold units declined compared to July.
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🔥GTA Weekly active inventory update.
Resale inventory buildup continues against the seasonality.
There is a weekly increase in rental inventory as well👀
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I often say that the era of "Central bank is your friend" is over. Inflation is absolutely a game-changer.
My view comes directly from BoC, look at their messaging.
Don't be surprised if they hike against slowing housing, rising defaults, or unemployment.
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@CTVNews
Good. Canadians deserve affordable housing solutions that actually make a difference, not just empty programs that give the illusion of progress.
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🔥 New year-over-year 🇨🇦 population growth record of 1.2M (prev. 1M).🏆
734k of that 1.2M are non-permanent residents.
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I second that however I don’t care about RE market at all until deferrals & CERB expire.
I must admit, people bidding up house prices amidst the deepest recession in living memory is something I definitely did not see coming.
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The official number from TRREB came even higher, at 8,183.
The Toronto area had 7,860 condo apartments for sale at the end of May
That is the highest number of units for sale ever
In any month, any year, including during COVID
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“In fact, Toronto currently has more cranes in the sky than New York City, Los Angeles, Seattle and Boston combined.“
Save this picture somewhere.
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🇨🇦Canadians accumulated about $100 billion of excess savings during the pandemic.
CIBC is trying to figure out when and how it's going to be spent.
#cdnecon
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Census 2021 data reveals interesting trends.
1. Toronto population growth is slowing down even during 2016-2021 population boom.
2. Toronto population grew by +4.6% and housing stock +7.1% during the last 5 years.
3. 131,732 unoccupied dwellings.
Housing shortages?🤔 Thoughts?
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Here is my public newsletter for April 2022:
📉Toronto Metro housing correction is underway
💪Rental market is strong
🏆 Condo sector may not see its reopening glory
🤔Views on the bond market and its impact on RE
🚀 Strong population growth inputs in 2022
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This puzzle is solved now. 🏦The Bank of Canada consistently underestimated 🇨🇦 population growth over the past year, revising its forecasts upward with each Monetary Policy Report (MPR).
This is the biggest puzzle for me.🤔 Is
@bankofcanada
forecasting a sudden drop in population growth in Q3-Q4 2023?
I see no signs of it for now.
This forecast directly impacts GDP so should we expect an upside surprise to GDP if population growth doesn't slow down?
6/7
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“International students in Canada will be restricted to a 20-hour work week”
Temporary measure allowing international students to work more than 20 hours per week is set to expire on Dec 31, 2023.
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People who bought new condos around 2016 (ave. price $450k) are cash flow negative today.
What about 35-50k condo investors in GTA who bought after that and still waiting for their units to be completed?
New condo prices more than doubled ($984k today) since 2016.
#Speculation
Freshly finished condo buildings have seen between $200 to $600 in monthly negative cash flow, based on local listing data from the rental website and new condo pricing collected from BuzzBuzzHome.
#tore
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Toronto Metro (GTA) weekly active inventory update.
Resale inventory is declining towards the seasonal target while rental inventory continues to grow.
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It's very frustrating when GTA housing market is booming during recession and I'm thrilled to share a comprehensive report which I hope will help you navigating through those unprecedented times.
Over 60 statistics and various metrics were carefully refined in order to deliver
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This is an absolute record for Canada.
As a share of population you need to go back to 1957 to see a reading that high.
Don't downplay this downturn folks.
929,000 Canadians have now filed for jobless benefits. Or nearly 5% of the entire labour force. We are only in week one of quarantine.
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Against all odds, 401k immigration target was reached in 2021. Thanks to the extraordinary PR admissions in the second half of 2021.
"Canada welcomes the most immigrants in a single year in its history"
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