Richard Vereker
@verekerrichard1
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Tracking Russian military equipment losses, Visualising and analyzing how that evolves in charts. Contributor to 'Tracking Russia’s losses' website.
Joined April 2022
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1) The Economist magazine has published an article about Russia running low on military equipment, To my surprise they mention me as an open-source analysis. So I thought I would do a thread about it.
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@Jonpy99
@HighMarsed
@CovertCabal
@WarSpotting
19) To finish off, I want to restate that the way to fight Russia is not to try to fight them to the end of an attritional war, where Russia pulls every last thing from storage and imports what it can. Instead, the West should give a surge of equipment, and ammunition now in one
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Yet, more evidence that Russia has run out of T-80s to reactivate and those left on the battlefield are slowly being attrited away. The blue section below shows Russian T-80 losses as a % of each month's losses, and it has been shrinking every month since June. 1/3
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Russia has lost 2410 Tanks, so far. (that's visually confirmed) Including 94 In February, When I last updated the graph on 1st March only 80 tanks were recorded in Feb, but with 5 extra days, 14 more have been found. Plus some additions and amendments to earlier months, including
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2) The main thrust of the article is that Russian stocks of stored equipment are deep, but not bottomless. And I would agree with that sentiment. I will go further and say that some of the best equipment is near the end of stored equipment.
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I think I have worked out Russia's strategy in Kursk, surrender in such large numbers that you overwhelm your opponent's logistics and delay the next advance.
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Something is changing the pattern of Russian battlefield losses. Russia has been losing Tanks and IFVs each month since the start of the war. It has lost more IFVs than tanks each month of the war, an average 1.87 IFVs (red line) for each tank. but each month the ratio (blue
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3) I should say that I mostly look at data that others have gathered, especially when it comes to assessing Russian stored equipment.
@Jonpy99
@HighMarsed
@CovertCabal
are all practically prolific and worth following.
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Something is changing with Russian equipment. In the war Russia has lost 1.88 IFV/APCs for every Tank, a 1:1.88 ratio, this has been remarkably stable, with a low of 1:1.49 and a high of 1:2.22 so far in March it's 1:3.21 much higher than ever before. This could be that they have
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1) This month so far, over a quarter of all Lost Russian tanks are the very old T-62 Type! (visually confirmed by
@WarSpotting
) 26.5% In this graph I have added this month's losses to a 3-month rolling average by type.
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@Jonpy99
@HighMarsed
@CovertCabal
4) First I am going to look at IFV/APC and here I can recommend a 'Google sheet' made available by
@Jonpy99
who has done the counting. It shows that overall Russia has removed more (6756) than it has left in working condition (5781)
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@Jonpy99
@HighMarsed
@CovertCabal
5) Being a bit over halfway may not seem that good. But if you look at the numbers, some equipment is almost all gone, MT-LBs in particular. These have been heavily used, on the front line. Equipment like BRDM-2 and BTR-60 & 70s still have lost left, but little of this old stuff
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1) Russia has lost a lot of tanks, (2918 visually confirmed by
@WarSpotting
) While most of our attention is on Kursk right now, I want to keep my updates going so here is a full thread on their tank losses.
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1) Russia Artillery losses as recorded by
@AndrewPerpetua
show a dramatic change over the last 10 months. Towed Artillery, goes from under 1/3 or almost 3/4 of the total in that time.
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@Jonpy99
@HighMarsed
@CovertCabal
6) The most important of the IFV/APCs are the BMPs. which you will see sit in the middle of the pack when it comes to how much has been taken from storage. But if we look at what
@Jonpy99
has counted in more detail, we see of the remaining 1382 useable BMPs, most, (about 893) are
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Russia has lost at least 966 pieces of Tube artillery (704 SPGs and 262 Towed Guns) when grouped by calibre and laced on a graph this is what we see. Standard 152mm (boring) are shrinking. I normally get more Pushback on this graph than any other I do, So a thred to explain. 1/n
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@Jonpy99
@HighMarsed
@CovertCabal
@WarSpotting
9) That couting effort produced these numbers. Showing that over half the total remains. but most of the best tanks are gone. All of the T-90s 3/4 of the T-80s and over half of the modernist T-72s. They used a slightly different way to grade the condition of the tanks, but again
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@Jonpy99
@HighMarsed
@CovertCabal
@WarSpotting
8) Next, I will look at tanks.
@CovertCabal
produced a youtube video recently based on a hout by him and
@HighMarsed
I recommend this.
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Does Russia have a problem with its armour supply? let me explain why I ask that.
Russia has lost at least 1210 BMP-2s (visually confirmed) so far. But it looks like we are seeing a change that might be of interest to the
#OSINT
community.
Most BMP-2 are the BMP-2(K) (Gray
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@Jonpy99
@HighMarsed
@CovertCabal
@WarSpotting
18) There have been people claiming Russia is about to Run out of equipment since day two of the war, and they were Wrong. However, I come back to the point from the start. Russia's store of equipment is deep but not bottomless, We don't truly know how close to the end we are,
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@Jonpy99
@HighMarsed
@CovertCabal
7) This time I'm using data from
@WarSpotting
and I've created a chart of the % of each type of BMP lost each month. The BMP-3 is still in production about 140 made last year. the BMP-2s have been the most numerous, at least if you take losses as a proxy for use. Don't worry too
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Russia is now visually confirmed to have lost 75 Tanks in December so far, which is more than any month in 2023 except February and October. Here is a short thread of how that breaks down, data. table at the end. 1/n
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The numbers keep going up: Russia is now visualy confirmed to have lost at least 262 IFVs in March 2024, that's more than any of the last 17 months!
There is also a change in the ratio of losses. 1/2
Russia is now visually confirmed to have lost at least 221 IFVs in March, more than in any month since November 2022. (data on ) I expect that number to go up by around 20% in the next month as late reporting is added. 1/5
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1) Russian Tank losses, by type over the war, show a gradual but constant rise in the proportion of T-62s (orange) over the last 10 months. While new T-90s only hover about 10% of all lost tanks.
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Russia is now visually confirmed to have lost more Tanks and IFVs in October than in any month since March and February respectively. Based on Photos/videos from
@WarSpotting
This is even more impressive considering that there are still 5 days of the month and most losses do not
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1) Russia is Visually Confirmed to have lost 5,544 Infantry Fighting Vehcales and Armerd Personal Careas, IFV/APC. Here is what those losses by type look like over time. A short thread on what's changing.
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@Jonpy99
@HighMarsed
@CovertCabal
@WarSpotting
10) Now we will come to artillery. This table is 6 months old but shows what has been taken. 5525 towed guns and 1489 SPGs. so a lot more towed. overall it's less than half but look at the pattern some types have hardly been touched M-46 130mm, while others like the 2A36 its over
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1) Most of the Russian T-80 losses are now one of the updated Obr2022 variants, (green in graph) and the change is quite rapid. A 🧵
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Russia has just lost its 100th T-90 Tank, visually confirmed by
@WarSpotting
There are 3 Types of T-90, and the loses for each are:
T-90A: 36
T-90S: 6
T-90M: 58
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@Jonpy99
@HighMarsed
@CovertCabal
@WarSpotting
13) Russia started with about 14-18 million artillery shells in storage. they were firing constantly over 20,000 a day and at times 60,000 a day, which uses up a lot. Especially when you add maybe a million shells lost in ammunition explosions. The article states Russia can now
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@Jonpy99
@HighMarsed
@CovertCabal
@WarSpotting
14) Russia imported a lot of shells from North Korea that were in very bad shape late last year. Firing pore-quality shells uses up the barrel life, with a low probability of a hit, So I think that Russia would only have used them if there principle limiting factor was Barrels.
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Russia is now visually confirmed to have lost over 200 IFVs (including APCs) in March given there are still 3 and a half days left of March and the time it takes to process and upload losses, this month will likely have more IFV losses than any since 2022. Tanks and other types -
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Have I missed something? Has Ukrainian destroyed another large Russian ammunition storage facility?
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
HAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
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@Jonpy99
@HighMarsed
@CovertCabal
@WarSpotting
12) The article also mentioned ammunition, and I think this is most likely the overall limiting factor on Artillery, not Barrels. And I partly say that looking at the loss patterns again. Russia brought some calibers back into service like the 240mm 2S4 and the 152mm Gianstant,
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@Jonpy99
@HighMarsed
@CovertCabal
@WarSpotting
In the Economist article, it quotes my theory that perhaps some of the Twed guns have been removed to move their barrels to working SPGs. which I say based on the loss patterns, here again from
@WarSpotting
showing many more SPG losses than Twoed Guns. This is only a theory I,
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@wartranslated
Maybe they are joining the Russian army so they have a chance to surrender and go to Ukraine?
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For some reason, the losses of Russia's old BMP-1 have declined for 2 months. both in absolute terms and especially as a % of total losses. (BMP-1s are dark blue at the bottom of the chart) some thought is in a Thred 1/n
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With so many more Russian tanks destroyed in the past week, it is time for the update of this graph, and we can say with even more confidence that by analyzing the lost tanks, Russia is running out of T-80s and the T-80BV variant in particular. 1/4
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@Jonpy99
@HighMarsed
@CovertCabal
@WarSpotting
17) Counting equipment from satellite photos is hard and I want to again thank those who do this. I also want to thank
@warspotting
and their team, for the work they do counting destroyed equipment.
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Has Russia run out of ammunition for 2 of its Self Propelled Guns? There have been no visually confirmed losses of either the 203mm 2S7 or the 152mm 2S5 Gianstat-S since December almost 100 days ago. 🧵1/n
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Throughout the war Russia has lost (visually confirmed) tasks and IFV/APCs at an average ratio of 1:1.87 (red line) The monthly ratio (blue line) has varied around that but not by that much, from 1:1.47 to 1:2.21, but this month it has shot up to 1:3.49 way above its normal
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Has Russia used up all the 152mm ammunition it got from North Korea? Probably not yet, but let me explain why I ask.
The graph below is of Russia's artillery losses each month, divided up by the calibre, and therefore ammunition they use. It showed that Russia's main artillery
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@Jonpy99
@HighMarsed
@CovertCabal
@WarSpotting
15) Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), are another type of artillery, and Jompy has done a count of those in storage. Showing 3/4 and 2/3 of the main 2 types have gone. so quite high amounts, it's possible that MLRS will become another pinch point if the quoted numbers of new
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@Maks_NAFO_FELLA
So the UN was fine with Russia using Clust munitions for 17 months, but if Ukraine uses them for one month he calls for an immediate end of there use. umm
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@Mylovanov
Good Thread, There are a couple of things I would add:
1) WW2 booming campaigns showed it was far better to destroy 50% of one industry than 5% of 10 different target types if you want to maximise the overall impact.
2) Refining oil is just one step in a process, that is
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@Jonpy99
@HighMarsed
@CovertCabal
@WarSpotting
16) When counting equipment from satellite photos it requires there to be photographs, and with some of the bases, the photographs are quite old. generally, this will mean more equipment has been taken than realised in the overall numbers. It's also possible that some of the
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Russia is now visually confirmed to have lost at least 221 IFVs in March, more than in any month since November 2022. (data on ) I expect that number to go up by around 20% in the next month as late reporting is added. 1/5
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Russia has lost as many tanks (86) this month as in all of last month. As visually confirmed by
@WarSpotting
Keeping in mind that there is normally a delay of a few days before photos are fully checked and uploaded, to the website, this month could be a lot higher. 1/3
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Could this not have been done 28 months ago?
RUBLE IS COLLAPSING
⚡️⚡️⚡️ In St. Petersburg, Russia lines are forming at money changers after the news broke about the new US sanctions that caused the suspension of currency trading on the Moscow Exchange.
👉 The Ruble is going bust!!
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Russian tanks in storage, A 🧵with some thoughts.
Yesterday
@Jonpy99
shared this article about a count by satellite photos of Russian tanks in storage, 6 months ago,
@CovertCabal
with help from
@HighMarsed
released this youtube video of the same
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Russia is now visually confirmed to have lost 34 tanks in May, still a small sample, but we can start to look for trends. And is this month different, T-62s are rising rapidly, and T-90s are also increasing, T-80s stay low and T-72s are a lot less common. 1/4
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@LeahRemini
Good, so pleased when anybody escaping that cult goes public, it must be hard, so well done to her and all ex- Scientologists.
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We all know Russia has lost a lot of tanks; 2460 from
@WarSpotting
2850 from
@Rebel44CZ
on ORYX and 6832 from the UGS. But what type, what Varaint, and how has that changed over the war? a Thred on Russia's tank losses, with the data tables and my opinion on the real total at the
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Russia is now visually confirmed to have lost 2309 Tanks in this war, a short thread looking at how those have changed. 1/7
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Russia is now visually confirmed to have lost at least 10 T-90s this month by
@WarSpotting
that's more than any month in the war, so far. 1/3
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This is good news to wake up to. Well done to the Unkainas team who did it.
Early this morning, Ukrainian attack drones struck Millerovo Airfield in Rostov Oblast, a major forward airbase near the Ukrainian border used by Russian strike aircraft.
The airbase is currently burning, with multiple massive fires along the flightline.
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Has Russia acquired some BMP-2s from another nation? I don't know but looking at Russian lost equipment something strange is happening. At this stage, we should be seeing more of the very old equipment coming out of storage, so more BMP-1s, but instead its more BMP-2s 1/n
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Russian AFV losses, by the family of vehicles, with a 3-month average-smoothing. This graph is a new arrangement. It clearly shows the disappearance of the Air-mobile AFVs at the start of the war, and the rapid rise of the BMPs in December 2022, I don't know why BMPs are also
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Russin Tanks in Storage,
@CovertCabal
has just released a YouTube video of his count of Russian Tanks in storage screenshot of the most important page, and here are my thoughts by type:
T-90: These 50 are very old T-90, and if they have not been taken out of store now they
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Russia has lost (visually confirmed) 112 Tanks in May. There has not been any dramatic change in the pattern of these losses, but some trends are continuing, T-90 and T-62 losses have both slowly risen for 5 months now; T-72 and T-80 are both slowly falling as a % of the total.
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@secretsqrl123
Russian losses are coming so quickly at the moment that I am having to update this all the time, but for now, this is the pattern of Russian IFV losses % of each type each month.
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Russia is visually confirmed to have lost almost 100 of its 'best' tanks the T-90 so far. but there has been a dramatic shift in the type, at the start they were almost the T-90A (older) model, then increasing numbers of T-90M (new) with a brief showing of the T-90S (export only)
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Russia is now visually confirmed to have lost 31 Tanks in June, and T-72s are a smaller proportion of that than ever before. 31 tanks is not a very big sample, but the trend has been going on for some time. the data table below. 1/2
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@secretsqrl123
Russia is also running out of their 'good' T-80 tanks. That's not good for them.
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Russia is visually confirmed to have lost over 2,700 Tanks, including 53 in June. And T-72s once the mainstay of the Russian Army seem to be a declining share of their force 1/n.
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Russin equipment loss data suggests that Russia is moving away from using standard 152mm guns. I posted the tweet below a week ago since then Russia has only lost 3 more artillery guns, (visually Confirmed) but none of them are 152mm, I think they have a problem with 152mm and
Russia has lost at least 966 pieces of Tube artillery (704 SPGs and 262 Towed Guns) when grouped by calibre and laced on a graph this is what we see. Standard 152mm (boring) are shrinking. I normally get more Pushback on this graph than any other I do, So a thred to explain. 1/n
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Something is happening with the composition of Russia's Armard Vehicle Fleet. And it could be significant. The Promotion of BMPs that are showing up in the losses has dropped significantly since September, it was about 60% for a year, but has now dropped to below 40% in November,
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@visegrad24
For accuracy, the law has passed one vote in one chamber, it will be voted on chapter by chapter next week starting on the 6th Feb, and then once amended, will go to the upper chamber. Hopefully, it will pass largely as is, but it has already had some bits removed.
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@PStyle0ne1
A piece of supporting evidence is to look at the calibres of the destroyed Russian artillery. In the chart below you can see how Russias main artillery calibre at the start 152mm has started to become less and less common. 152mm is a good size for artillery if Russia moves to
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There really does seem to be a disappearing T-80 Phenomenon going on. over the last 4-month T-80s as A % of each months losses:
June 64.4%
July 52.1%
Aug: 46.2%
Sep (so far): 24%
I know this could be a statistical anomaly, but also it might not be, Russia has regenerated a lot
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Russian artillery is taking a hammering right now, mostly because of FPV drones.
Warspottng and Adrrew use different methods for compiling their lists, one big one being that Warspotting does not include 'damaged' in their headline totals, so don't expect all of these, to
Here are losses I could identify for yesterday:
Russians (94, 57 are combat assets):
Artillery (34)
31 Russian howitzers were damaged counter-battery fire. 27 of which used fpv drones in the counter-battery role, three from shelling.
In addition to those,
3 artillery pieces
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Russian T-72 Tanks, are getting older. by looking at this graph and dividing tanks in to one of the 3 main base modals, March has seen a big drop in the number of T-72B3s, mostly replaced by older T-72Bs, and a small rise in the even older types. I don't know how sigificat this
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I'm not going to be able to sleep now till I know what has been sunk.
❗️BREAKING❗️
There is information that 🇷🇺Russian ships were struck with 🇺🇦Ukrainian missiles strikes in Sevastopol, Crimea
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Russian Tank losses, I am updating this graph and posting it daily at the moment, 4 new tanks today. The disappearing T-80 phenomenon does seem real, replaced mostly by T-72s and this month, especially by T-90Ms. We don't know why, but Russia was set to run out of T-80s to
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Russia has now lost 13947 bits of equipment, (visually confirmed) and here they are by category of equipment over time, Tanks and AFVs have gradually increased over time, but note the sharp increase in the tank proportion over the last 3 months. 1/2
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Russia is now visually confirmed to have lost 1000 MT-LBs. Thank you to the team at
@Warspotting
who have counted all these, and even more Thanks to the brave Ukrianins who have destroyed them all.
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The daily loss data shows that the fighting is very intense at the moment. Russia's Offense in the East, is large, and costly, so why is Russia doing it for such small areas of land? So does Russia keep doing it?
I think it's related to the Russian presidential elections next
Here are losses I could identify today.
That one video was pretty bad for the Russians.
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Yesterday I tweeted that Russia was visually confirmed to have lost 221 IFVs in March and expected that number to go up by 20%, well 24 Hours later and it's now 232, and most significantly a record ratio of 3.31 IFVs for each Tank Destroyed.
Russia is now visually confirmed to have lost at least 221 IFVs in March, more than in any month since November 2022. (data on ) I expect that number to go up by around 20% in the next month as late reporting is added. 1/5
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The second reason I am suspicious of the Russian tank fleet is the sudden demise of the T-72 Obr 2022s, these newly modernised tanks were on the ascendancy, but have suddenly started to disappear. has Russia sent instructions to the factories, to send all tanks to the front ASAP,
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Russia has lost at least 959 MT-LBs (visually confirmed by
@WarSpotting
) In May they were all Base modal MT-LBs whereas at the start over 40% were MT-LBVM(K) or other types. This indicates that all those they started with in operations are now gone.
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Yes, he is right
The best way to deter China is to support Ukraine.
I just got back from Ukraine, and I’m amazed by the strength of the Ukrainian people. We need to continue to help them push back against Russia.
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Russia is losing a lot of its D-30 artillery right now, (towed 122mm howitzers also know as 2A18) over 20 today on
@AndrewPerpetua
list almost all to FPV drones
Here are losses I could identify for August 8th.
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Does Russia have a problem with its standard 152mm ammunition? I don't know but for some reason, standard 152mm guns have been becoming less prevalent among its lost artillery systems, from 67% to 25% now. there was a temporary stop in winter 23/24 after the NK ammunition. 1/2
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Russian losses of equipment over the last 5 months. showing the overall increase in losses is almost all down to rises in IFV losses, while really all the other types of losses have been, pretty stable.
I think this is a combination of Ukrainian drones becoming more numerous
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Russia lost 308 bits of equipment in December. Visually confirmed, and that will go up in the next few days. but for the first time ever IFV/APCs account for over half of all losses 51.9% and Tanks are at an all-time high proportion too of 26.3% I think this is an indication of
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Russa has lost at least 733 T-80s (visually confirmed) The T-80 has become their most important tank. The T-90 might be slightly better but there are many more T-80s, there are probably more T-80s on the front line now than the T-72s. They have also shown a dramatic change over
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For crying out loud, lift all restrictions on Ukrainian use of weapons now!
🇺🇲🇺🇦🇷🇺 An advisor to President Zelensky tells WaPo that they are formally requesting that the Biden Admin allow them to use ATACMS to hit the Russian air bases being used to launch sorties against the Kursk operation.
Ukraine has obviously been asking both publicly and
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Yesterday (Sunday) there was meant to be a massive attack on targets in Israel, but it did not happen because Israel struck first destroying the launch sights before they fired.
Today (Monday) there was a large attack across Ukraine, Ukraine knew where most of the attacks were
Over 100 drones and 60 missiles of various types were launched at Ukraine in the few hours of the morning of 26 August.
In the video, most likely Odessa which was rocked by numerous explosions this morning.
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This must be one of the longest daly list of lost equipment! Thank you
@AndrewPerpetua
and your team for collecting it.
Here are losses I could identify for September 1st.
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The BMP-3 is Russia's best Infantry Fighting Vehachal, first produced in 1988, and still in production. At the start of the war, all of the Russian BMP-3s losses were of the original model, but a new version the BMP-3 SB3KDZ has appeared and is now more common. 1/n
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Russian artillery losses by calibre. I think this graph shows the gradual decline in the use of Russia's standard 152mm calibre (orange), better than my earlier graphs. calibres go from largest at the top to smallest at the bottom but with the Standard 152mm at the bottom. In
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Russia has lost a lot of APC/IFVs, over 5,000 visually confirmed by
@Warspotting
. Recently
@Jonpy99
was counting these Vehacales in Russian storage, and Russia does not have a lot of MT-LBs left, but for some reason, they are an increasing proportion (blue in graph) of all
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Russia just lost a T-54B, this variant was only built for a short time from 1957 to Jan 1958. So it was 67 years old, I think that should be passed retirement age, even in Russia.
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Russias Visuly confirmed losses this month already stand at over 400 total including over 100 tanks and 200 IFV/APCs.
Imagine what they could do if the West gave them what they needed.
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Possible that a third Russian ship was hit last night, in addition to the 2 Ropuah Clas landing ships, the 4,000-tone Yuriy Ivanov intelligence gathering ship might also have been hit. This is a much newer ship Commitiond in 2015, it was hit by sea drones last May, but probably
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Russia is visually confirmed to have lost 673 T-80s of variants. The complete disappearance of the T-80Us is one of the most dramatic changes in Russian equipment since the was began. 1/2
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Russia has lost a lot of Tanks and IFVs, I have been tracking those visually confirmed losses and noticed a big change. Throughout the war for every tank Russia lost, it also lost 1.87 IFVs. (red line) the loss ratio has been close to this all war (blue line) when Russia is on
Throughout the war Russia has lost (visually confirmed) tasks and IFV/APCs at an average ratio of 1:1.87 (red line) The monthly ratio (blue line) has varied around that but not by that much, from 1:1.47 to 1:2.21, but this month it has shot up to 1:3.49 way above its normal
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@wartranslated
My thoughts and prays are with all the brave Ukrainian soldiers on the front like at this critical and dangerous time.
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The BTR-82 is a modern 8-wheel IFV, used extensively By Russia, who have lost at least 725, visually confirmed by
@WarSpotting
There has been a significant change in the variants being lost so here is a Thread. 1/n
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