Todd Dashefsky
@tldash
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#FGO9周年
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#Liella_神奈川Day2
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This is one of the most complex times I have seen, as an outsider, for software industry management teams. It seems impossible to really know how much of the complexity is macro (not insignificant) vs AI edge out / prioritization, architectural changes, and competition both from
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@KirkHerbstreit
Most of us are not football players. But all of us can learn from Nick Saban. His work ethic, process-driven approach, discipline, ability to adapt, and even his humor are lessons for all of us college football nuts who have never played a down for him. Good luck, Coach Saban
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@AaronMcMann
Was a consistently undervalued piece of Michigans success year after year. A coach who would make every position group he touched better.
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@bluebyninety
Maybe we should wait until they don’t leave in the April window before celebrating our ability to retain them. Just a thought
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It is roughly 10 years since Hock began Avago’s acquisition strategy with the purchase of LSI Logic in May 2014. Guess what his EBITDA margins were in fy2014? Around 22 pct. He just reported a 60 handle. What I have always loved about Hock is that he said there were too many
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@ryanwhitney6
Some of the best passing I’ve seen ever watching the rangers has happened in this series. Just awesome
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@GuyAdami
@iamjohnoliver
Absolutely legendary display of staying in character by Melissa and remarkable self-control by you
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Going back over the Dell transcript...is it fair to say they simply see the Server business, AI or otherwise, as CAC for the rest of ISG? Or do they see enough years of maintenance attach $'s, including from hyperscalers, to justify making limited money from hardware sales? I
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@Buccigross
The Rangers passing is atrocious. How many more turnovers before the Panthers capitalize.
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lot of people talking about how company xyz should start "massively buying back their stock." With conferences next week, if you are an analyst preparing for meetings with CFOs/IR, think about a few things before asking 20 ways about buyback:
1. Have a spreadsheet with your
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@alexeheath
I am here for all the tech company CEOs talking smack about their competitors like they were old school college football coaches.
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If Salesforce/Informatica reports prove true, I'm curious about the slide deck they will put forth to announce it. AI-heavy with a focus on how this tectonic shift can reinvent the experience in its core applications by vertically integrating even more deeply in the data stack.
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Confluent - that is two quarters in a row of streamlined message, little numbers upside and managing numbers through year pretty well. Seems like there are too many secular tailwinds for them not to have a breakout quarter sometime this year if they can get products out the door.
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On our way back from London where my wife completed the marathon today. Her marathon running is a treasure chest of memories in our family, and a source of escape for my wife for many years. But her last four marathons were more statements than escape routes. 2022’s NY Marathon
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@cpaik
I am genuinely interested to see this idea presented to decision makers in the healthcare, financial services and other heavily regulated industries and see the time frame they believe this could play out. In a completely deregulated world, who knows, you might be right but the
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@ShortSightedCap
I think a big secret that no one wants to say is that you will not be a perfect parent, and that really is ok. I have four…kids not cats. I assure you my parenting has never been confused with perfection. And yet, I’m confident that my kids will tell you I have been a good dad
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@BarstoolUofM
JJ is predetermining his throws on third downs. Missed wide open receiver in the middle as he stares Loveland down
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@_fabknowledge_
This was the other side of buying Xilinx and it hits a down cycle and diversification goes against you during the mi300 product cycle. Gaming/embedded (most of Xilinx) down 40-50 pct y/y. Bulls say growth rate accelerates from here and industrial/auto cycle for Xilinx has already
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@lessin
Debate has to start with the baseline you present above. Nvidia doing over 100bn revenue run rate and whatever the gaudy margins/profits are (but a lot greater than 30bn ebitda. So the bulls don’t believe a decline comes any time soon and that the margins are in the zone of
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@_ZachShaw
None of this is new, guys. We all thought they leaked the 10yr/125 deal, etc. let’s see how the day plays out. Need some nfl jobs to come off the board. Draftkings odds now -150 to the chargers but +100 to stay. Anything still possible
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@anthonytbroome
This is a terrible misunderstanding of what Herbert was (and why Harbs wants him despite NFL players having trainers). He was a culture definer, locker room glue guy, change agent. He was always that to Harbaugh. Harbaugh is an exceptionally insightful CEO for recognizing it
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A few end of week closing thoughts:
1. AI - maybe obvious to many others, but this week it clicked that the development of memory within LLMs really raises the stakes for enterprise customers to choose carefully their partners as switching costs materialize
2. Another 1980s
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@Buccigross
Less than a minute in the period. Stop trying to make the damn elbow check into the boards.
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@chamath
@JonathanRoss321
@GroqInc
This was a great discussion. It gave me so many questions to go figure out. More of these please
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@AriWasserman
And the continuity that we hoped Sherrone would bring is now made moot as this could become a real rebuild task if the DL studs hit the portal in the spring. As you said, hard work ahead for Coach Moore
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@HarryStebbings
@infoarbitrage
Great episode. Amazing to be so credible across as many subjects were covered from a professional and personal standpoint. Perhaps most importantly, Go Blue!
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I am fascinated by the debate surrounding Adobe and AI being a positive or negative for them. A lot can happen but as someone who watched them pull off the first SaaS transition, they know how to execute through industry changes. MS presented the math hedge funds are doing on
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Let’s just go right to the third period of this Panthers / Oilers game. No intermission. Panthers playing desperate, McDavid is absolutely flying around the ice and both goalies feel super vulnerable. Playoff hockey rocks
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@RihardJarc
@Revealera
M Scarpelli was not subtle about saying that he wanted to set the new CEO up to succeed. I belive he said that on the call and at the Morgan Stanley conference presentation
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@altcap
Uber investors really going to appreciate Prashanth as CFO. from his days at ADI, he understands fully loaded costs, capital allocation and running really profitable businesses even at semi cycle low points. Expect a strong message next week’s investor update
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My super novice takeaways from ADBE analyst day: 1. "workflow software is the enterprise vault" - like servicenow (and maybe Box
@levie
?), i heard ADBE say, we are the natural ingestion point for your models, data, digital assets. put us in the middle, and we will
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@lessin
And on Apple, equally some core questions (beyond the stock moving ahead of WWDC and/or an AI phone cycle)
1. China - terminal value of the market to Apple. Market sharer, geopolitical risk vs size of apple as employer in the country, can mobile gaming services revenue pick
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Going to be very interesting to see Texas Instruments' management team respond to Elliott. Recall, in February, management presented their annual capital allocation update, reiterating their logic for their spending. Since then, the analog cycle appears headed for its upturn,
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@Balas_Wolverine
This is slow moving (and now fast moving) complacency. Taking success for granted. Letting good coaches and players leave (bc it’s hard to believe we aren’t losing players now). Hopefully if they are hiring Cullen he will find some years of eligibility for Chris Jones
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@bgurley
Ultimately these companies will be able to show a cohort analysis for the model iterations as investors/companies observe the incremental capex/opex to build the next version, the incremental revenue from the spend to build the next model, and then the ongoing cash flow stream of
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@alexisohanian
Elite level sweating. Reminds me of the “Cheers” episode when they debated the sweatiest movie ever. “Cool Hand Luke….oh yeah, buckets”
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@stevesi
European regulators see an opening to get more aggressive against US big tech given that it is likely harder for the US government to say they are being unfairly targeted (as they often have in the past) as the US itself steps up its own aggression against Big Tech
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@RihardJarc
@Revealera
You can also see the same trend in Finance jobs which supports not only the transition you suggest but likely also the transformation to emphasize more of its “for profit” side and governance makeover
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@altcap
Great discussion. For software, the main event debate will ultimately be pricing. Pricing , I think, is a matrix of value delivered and switching costs. Will AI and parts of the stack reduce either / both? If so, the net retention rates for some enterprise software names could
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@bgurley
@jasonlk
@rao_hacker_one
On the SBC issues, have to work toward share count growth much lower than the 4 pct plus they have shown. If you want to emphasize FCF, commit to and embrace FCF/share so investors don’t need to worry about 40-50 pct dilution over the next decade from the dilution compounding.
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Rangers, a few issues
1. Panarin - turnovers in the offensive zone and holding the puck too long on power play
2. Schneider - someone hand him the memo that Florida aggressively fore checks. They are attacking him
3. When the Rangers have three guys behind the net, it
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@ballmatthew
@wolfejosh
Whichever analyst created the analysis for the indefensible right of use (IRU) did some solid damage but small peanuts vs others including Rogoff/reinhart as mentioned above
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@altcap
does ad pie first grow more than goog/search share loss as ROIs rip higher from AI? other point - regulatory precluding GOOG M&A of disruptors a first win for Lina Kahn's anti-goog efforts? notable to watch goog's capex/R&D vs buybacks in next few years; p/e risk noted earlier
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@StanfordSteve82
@danielrainge
Svp is just so damn good handling any situation with the perfect tone, ability to close a conversation etc. that was a very touching segment.
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I could watch playoff hockey handshake lines for hours. Love everything about the tradition.
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@Stocktwits
Perhaps this is TAC in the AI world and Google is willing to pay AAPL in some way?
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@MichaelDell
@PatrickMoorhead
Amazing to see the reverence other tech CEOs showed to you
@MichaelDell
during your presentation.
#respect
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@BryanMillsFist
@anthonytbroome
Yup. A coach who takes a 50 pct pay cut, gives millions of bonuses to staffers, and wins a natty is really tough to love from a fans perspective. Love Harbs
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@altcap
great episode start to finish. SBC so tricky for public markets. markets tend to go up, when they do, people look for highest nums on which to put highest mulitples. sbc fades away as concern, sends signal to mgmt teams, sell/buyside, rinse repeat. that said, for growth
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I read a number of tech transcripts this week with harsh stock reactions. Some recommendations to IR that are consistent with mgmt's L/T value creation focus and acknowledgement of corporate comms, employee, other constituencies' presence on call:
1. Managing for 930am stock
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Highly recommend the second episode of “Mind the Game” with Lebron and JJ Reddick and taking it in via YouTube vs just listening. When they discuss the finer points of defending, you can see Lebron trying to make digestible all the details he processes in his head. Amazing to
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@JordanAckerMI
@CoachJim4UM
Just Warde vs JH no? That post Covid contract was Warde trying (flaunting?) to manage the football program with a “gotcha” short term “value play.” Felt like a public company managing for the quarterly report at the risk of the company’s mid term growth (JH’s trust). Good lk
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@CGasparino
Brian is one of the best things about eating in New York City. Always makes you feel like the place is happy to see you, asks about my kids…no bigger Ranger fan to boot. Absolute gem of a man.
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@altcap
Cost rationalization must come with acceleration in new product cadence. Apple/Shop Pay both lower friction experiences. New CEO has discussed too many past acquisitions; "tech debt" is high. amzn (ie, non pypl) accelerating gains also a structural challenge
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If you are like me, it’s hard to focus on baseball until the NBA and NHL are finished and then you have no football until late August. But what Aaron Judge has done since May 1 is so otherworldly it is hard not to notice. Barry Bonds had runs like this in the early 2000’s and
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@EricNewcomer
@om
…if this leads to a discussion of central offices and circuit vs packet switching, what a glorious day…the salad days of Lucent and Nortel…rejoice!
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@bgurley
@jasonlk
@rao_hacker_one
Would also add that GTLB’s experience being a public company hasn’t been the smoothest. Execution relative to expectations has been up and down, debate about long term growth and/or positioning relative to msft/github persists, AI winner or loser debated by public investors, and
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@RihardJarc
@altcap
@friedberg
@chamath
@bgurley
Clearly a “mix math” challenge and requires flawless execution. They believe inference costs won’t be a burden within few years (2/22/23 Reuters story). With new chatbot revenues, COGS normalizing, opex cuts, etc, could downside eps be > than feared?
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@jowyang
How many of these companies will sustain for the long term or at such elevated profit levels? AI, if the logic holds, will simply spawn many more companies who will attack the profit umbrella of the efficient companies before them. Seems way early to think we know how this goes
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@EricFlaningam
lots of people pointing out cloud acceleration in 4q. Important to note how much easier the growth compares were in 4q vs 3q. In all 3 cases, 2 yr growth rate decelerated; AWS the most. while it’s great to see net new starting to work, we would like to see the two yr hold better
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@SpikeAlbrecht
@bluebyninety
And that’s only if we can’t convince Jay Wright to come out of retirement
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If DBRX from Databricks is as good as advertised so far, this seems very interesting. Accelerating the industry to drive down model/compute costs to free up “AI spend dollars” or accelerate application deployment l, both of which open more TAM for Databricks’ core analytic and
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@modestproposal1
Obviously this discussion is a big driver of the push for on device inference
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@WolverineChron
You know what? Let’s just skip the part where everyone does damage control and posturing. Onward to defending the national championship to which harbaugh led us. Be thankful and optimistic about the future, whatever that looks like for the team and coaching staff.
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My dad doesn’t become giddy when speaking about much of anything. Telling stories about Willie Mays was one of the few times he did. He did so because of how ridiculously good he was, so good it was basically nonsensical. 300 career hitter, 660 HRs, 3200+ hits and nearly 2k RBI,
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With tonight’s performance, Aaron Judge now leads MLB in batting average, HRs, and RBIs. The two plus month stretch of dominance he is on is in the rarified air of Ruth, Gehrig, Williams and Bonds. While the Yankees are showing cracks left and right, Judge is simply the best
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@RihardJarc
tone was what bulls wanted. Button share + stopping Braintree carpet bombing pricing = get transaction margin growth going (button share not easy); message on costs, m&a tells you opex focus. Hard work ahead but path to positive revision. + ntm Ayden read from Braintree pricing
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ServiceNow analyst day preso was illuminating, particularly after
@Adobe
analyst day,
@salesforce
's data cloud strategy & INFA rumors,
@SAP
's earnings call, and
@Rippling
memo that was published with recent funding. AI requiring better data avail. and transmission speed. If
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@ballmatthew
Talk to IR of the company. They reference Epic Games’ headcount being thousands less than the pro forma 5k after today
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@RenMacLLC
We appreciate your recognition. We look forward to our big ten colleagues who complained about us, argued for our punishment, etc to donate their CFP bonus checks that we earned for the conference to charity because I’m sure they will be above taking money so ill-gotten
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