Jack Smith
@stockholder30
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$SYM
Earnings call is a disaster so far. Analysts are being far more hostile than previous calls, asking pointed questions regarding gross margins and customer concentration concerns. Company being very defensive & vauge, not really responding directly
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@pennycheck
My highest conviction short (currently no position). I've written extensively on $SYM. Will go full short when float expands either due to offering or when Softbank starts dumping their shares. Lockup expiry on the 17.8m shares they bought from CEO at $28 expires on 23 Jan 24
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$SYM
3 filings just released. Michael Dunn (Senior VP) just sold another 94k of shares worth $4.78m. Todd Krasnow (Director) sold another 10k shares. On a perhaps not unrelated note, Walmart just exercised their warrants in full (15.87m) at strike price of $10. Cont..
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I have literally added most of those to my watch-list for future shorts. Majority of them are future 0's or micro-caps in the next year or 2. The rest are overvalued &/or meme stocks are just riding the current market wave but will get crushed when markets turns. Repeat of 2021..
I own 22 stocks in my small-cap portfolio, which has been up 57% since its inception 5 months ago.
Let's explore the competitive moats of each holding in two parts: today, I'll cover the bottom half, and tomorrow, I'll share insights on my top 10 positions👇
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$SYM
Lockup for SoftBank shares that were purchased from CEO at $28 has now expired. Currently, $SYM is down 4% while QQQ is up 1.3%. Interestingly, short availability just increased from 25k to 250k in the past hour. Have S/B started selling already? We'll find out soon enough
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$SYM strange action indeed with orderly selling all day. I think that there are multiple catalysts that will tank the stock besides for an offering, such as Walmart selling. Softbank unlock coming up mid Jan + insiders have been selling non stop, some even liquidating their stock
$SYM not really trading with the market today. No idea if they'll pull the trigger here but if they do it'll be soon.
Could see a squeeze if they don't.
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@BluSuitDillon
The $7.5b backlog they added is from their own new company that they just registered on Friday. And Rick cohen selling 17.8m shares to Softbank at $28 which is a 40% discount to the current price is not bullish. This new JV has zero customers currently..
$SYM deal is the bear case
They are giving away the “everyone but Walmart” biz to SoftBank and keeping 1/3
SOTP: A few $B gross profit from WMT over decade, a few $B GP from JV, and 1/3 of JV
The combined is worth well <$10B
Ceo selling at 35% discount. $1B shelf
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$ASTS investors cannot catch a break. From being up 40% AH on Google strategic investment to now being down 6% on 100m share offering! Have never nor do I plan on ever being an investor in this company for obvious reasons
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$SYM
5 insiders (inc. CTO, CSO & Senior VP) all sold shares today which explains the abysmal price action. Question is what are they frontloading and why the rush to unload shares less than 2 weeks before earnings. Not a good look for the company..
$SYM
And the dump continues and now down over 8% today. Insiders have been selling consistently the past few weeks/months. Are insiders front running a negative event like an offering or SoftBank &/or Walmart selling shares, or perhaps a bad earnings report (due Mon 2 Feb AH)?
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@DeepSailCapital
Their huge backlog is basically just Walmart (90% of current revenue) and the GreenBox JV which is a related party + doesn't yet exist (0 employees/customers) and probably will never materialise
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I also covered half my $SYM short. Waiting for a major catalyst (like Walmart or SoftBank selling) to go fully short but until then, they'll be many opportunities to trade it especially as many stocks tend to bounce close to an unlock
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@dannyvena
@themotleyfool
$SYM "Symbotic stock is still remarkably cheap" "The stock is priced at less than 2 times forward sales"
This is flase. The current market cap is $28.5b which is around 20x forward sales, hence making the whole point of the article mute. It's currently ridiculously overvalued..
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@OnodaCapital
$SYM
Many upcoming catalysts..
Softbank lockup expiry in Jan, Walmart just vested their 15.8m warrants (at $10 strike price!), growth is predicted to be down q/q, massive insider selling past few weeks. Massively overvalued esp for a hardware company. Reality check incoming IMO📉
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@BluSuitDillon
$SYM
1/ There are a couple of flaws in your research as well as lots of red flags in this company. I will list a few:
Their $12b contracted backlog is primarily from Walmart (over 90% currently) so big customer concentration risk
$SYM has great price action, product, and potential. 🚨A major red flag for me is customer concentration. This, like leverage, can be good or bad depending on the outcome, but worth being aware of. $WMT represents 94% of their recent annual revenue!
From their last 10-k
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$SYM "Symbotic stock is still remarkably cheap" "The stock is priced at less than 2 times forward sales"
This is flase. The current market cap is $28.5b which is around 20x forward sales, hence making the whole point of the article mute. It's currently ridiculously overvalued..
3 Things About
#Symbotic
the Smartest
#Investors
Know
@themotleyfool
#stocks
#investing
#artificialintelligence
#AI
#robotics
#automation
#logistics
#warehouse
#distribution
$SYM
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@BluSuitDillon
Appreciate the effort and putting it out here for free. As mentioned, I disagree with lots of it but I guess that's what makes a market. Lastly, the company's merits can be debated but its valuation is absurd on all metrics and even your own projections predict slowing growth
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@BluSuitDillon
Again, the current $23b market cap is not based on its current $1b/year run rate with negative margins.. it's based on the most optimistic (IMO unrealistic) future growth trajectory leaving no room for error nor upside. $MTTR also traded above $30 on 'metaverse' hype,now below $3
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@n_bancroft2
@mukund
Current valuation is over $25b which is 30x 2023 revenue, forward P/E of 280. Extremely overvalued and trading at peak bubble valuation
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@BluSuitDillon
@GonzaloLimones
It's 97% hardware (non-recurring). Only 3% recurring revenue from software
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@mukund
Another 6% up today? $SYM dropped 2.6% + 4.85% the last 2 trading sessions respectively. Rather quiet huh? And yet still almost 40% lower then the highs from a couple weeks ago.. lol
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@RahulSetty_
There are a couple red flags regarding $HIMS as highlighted by Spruce Point in their lengthy short report on this company. My 2 biggest concerns is future competition (Amazon?) and non stop insider selling (including CEO, COO & CFO) the past year, even at the lows in the $6s. NP
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$SYM
Re-entered short position at $45. Planning to average up if/when it goes above $50. General market looks toppy so expecting it to go down along with the market in the next couple days/weeks. Upside should be limited given the eager insiders (+WMT/Softbank) waiting to unload
$SYM
From up 10% to red on heavy volume. Classic pump and dump. Managed to ride short from $41 to $38 (plenty of shares now available to short). Hopefully will get another opportunity to reshort..
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$SYM
Regarding GreenBox, they expect to start off slowly then "very fast". Sounds amazing, doesn't it. It's been 8 months since the JV was announced and 0 customer commitments so far. Also has 0 employees and no info as to how they will make money..
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$SYM
Looks like the shares from the offering are already being added to the float given that short shares availability just increased from 20k to 500k (highest it's ever been IIRC). Will still need a catalyst for significant downside but the float increasing should limit upside
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@ShortReportMeta
More insider sales last night. Another 20k by Todd Krasnow and 71k by another insider Rollin Ford
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short interest is still high with a low float so can easily squeeze again regardless of earnings results. Will evaluate post earnings and look to short higher post squeeze much like the previous time. Expecting any pop to be short lived
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@NingiResearch
Worst of all, he's selling his 17.8m shares to SoftBank at $28.05 which is an over 35% discount to the last closing price! No doubt SoftBank will be dumping those shares (along with their own stake) at any price above that
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@acemoney21
💯 This is a hardware company (97% of revenue) with tiny margins and one off installations. It's going below $20 in the medium term but it's currently a low float so will take time. Once Softbank and Walmart start selling (+CEO and family) it'll crash.. $SYM
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@Patrick60736619
No position at the moment but waiting for either a pump (which often occurs around an unlock) or for Softbank &/or Walmart to start selling or an offering. Float still very tight and short availability still very low. Earnings are in 2.5 weeks so being cautious for now
$SYM
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Ordering more systems, backlog dropped. Reminder that $WMT is 90% of $SYM revenue and majority of the backlog. $AEHR also had heavy insider selling the past few months. Ditto for $SYM, as even in the low 40s today, insiders are still dumping shares which is another red flag
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@yachtking_
@FinanceLancelot
Fintel short data is false as anyone doing basic research on float size can tell $BOWL. Short interest is in the low 20s..
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I'll assume they're sellers any price above $28 (purchase price) and Symbotic also have a $1b shelf offering waiting to be used. Still believe this company will go below $10. Will take time for float to expand. Meanwhile insiders are selling heavily so likely they agree
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$SYM
No short position at the moment as no shares available to short. No opinion on which way earnings will go but what's slightly different than last 2 earnings (when it went up 40-50%) is heavy insider sales past couple weeks/months + longs front running a squeeze. OTOH, cont.
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$SYM
Company hyping their prototype BreakPack system (which is still a couple of qtrs from launch) by listing the negatives of their current robots. Makes me wonder why companies would want their current product
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Covered $SYM at $54.50.. That was a short lived pump and dump. Every pump is a gift for shorts.. Waiting to reshort higher
Shorted $SYM at $57.50
This pump with tons of insider selling on a daily basis seems suspicious..
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@VitruvianMan725
Knapp (a competitor) is being installed in Walmart's next gen FC's. That $SYM was snubbed for that contract should be a concern given that once the installations of the DC's are complete next couple years, their biggest customer (current revenue+majority of backlog) will be gone
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@FinanceLancelot
@yachtking_
I am repeating myself and probably pointless arguing with you but FINRA data is not always reliable, like in this case. If you read the SEC filings, you'd probably figure that out for yourself, but your likely large position size (probably via options) is clouding your judgement
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@OddDiligence
I believe it's a race to the exits b/w Walmart and Softbank as to who can dump first and faster. Don't see how this won't tank the stock price as it's both dilution + float expansion. The float is currently tiny so these shares upon exercise will expand the float significantly
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@replacegreen
Definitely not a buy at any price above $10. But I wouldn't short now as it needs a catalyst for further downside and the short term trend seems like up. Furthermore, it's back to being heavily shorted which means it can squeeze. Would scale back in short between $50-$60
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@_jeff_irons
@JabroniVille69
@yachtking_
According to multiple sources, the current float is 84.37m shares. Of that, 17.92m shares are shorted which makes the short interest 21.24%, not 84%
$BOWL
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10/ which will happen to $SYM in the next few quarters. The longs in the stock who are celebrating their thesis based on the rise in the stock price are failing to understand the mechanics of a heavily shorted/low float shitco they all go down once the music stops. Caveat emptor
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3/ Growth has slowed down Q/Q and will become more obvious Y/Y from Q3 onwards when previous year comparisons become more difficult to match.
$SYM has similarities to another high growth/low margin company which is $STEM which you were a buyer of at $15+
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@dannyvena
Your Motley Fool article on $SYM has a big error that invalidates the whole buy recommendation. "Surprisingly, the stock is currently selling for just 2.3 times sales and 1.3 times forward sales, making it a bargain". Market cap is not $2b.. it's actually over $20b!
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$ASTS Turns out it was pretty accurate as offering has been priced at $3.10. That's a hefty 25% discount to the closing price. I cannot see how investors would view this as good news as they will keep having to dilute shareholders for funding. Probably going below 1 eventually..
$ASTS No clue how reliable Benzinga is but the pricing of $3-3.50 seems quite low based on the current price
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As predicted, $SYM is pumping on another mediocre earnings. They are close to peak revenue, yet losses still increasing and still no profits. Reminder-they are a hardware seller with tiny margins. GreenBox is still a fantasy/joke. Still no shares available to short/no position
$SYM earnings tonight. No position and no shares available to short so ripe for a squeeze hopefully. I plan to scale back in short above $50 if it gets there. Will evaluate the earnings report and decide. Float is still low so being cautious. Softbank lockup expiry almost over..
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1/ $SYM has now lost half of its after earnings gains and is back to its previous resistance at $52-53. I am short with an $51 average and it remains my highest conviction short, albeit not a massive position due to it's tendency to squeeze because of the current float..
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$SYM
Given that $SYM is now at $50, their $158m purchase would net them $790m (instant 5x gain). I fully expect them to start selling their newly acquired shares. When this happens, it would expand the float significantly and end the low float squeeze. Added to my short today..
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4/ $STEM like $SYM also had high growth (which is now slowing) but negative margins and vast majority of their revenue is selling hardware (mostly at a loss).
Ultimately, I expect $SYM to come down hard in the next few month much like $STEM, currently at $5.76 as it's.. cont
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@OddDiligence
Was looking into $BOWL as a short recently when it was pumped on FinTwit as a short squeeze. Ultimately chose to avoid but lean bearish in the long term mainly due to its high debt making it vulnerable to any economic slowdown (they declared bankrupcy x2)
Short report on $BOWL - Deceptive Management, Accounting Games, Insider Selling, and Earnout Shares vesting highlight a few of the red flags. Below is the link to the report. If you have any pushback or comments, fire away.
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6/ The current $25b market cap is already in pricing in your best case growth scenario (which is dubious at best).
Lastly, if you're looking for more info,
@OnodaCapital
has done some great research on $SYM
Anyways, I wish you all the best and I guess we'll see how it turns out
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$SYM
I guess we now know why insiders were dumping. Currently down 21% on earnings..
$SYM
No short position at the moment as no shares available to short. No opinion on which way earnings will go but what's slightly different than last 2 earnings (when it went up 40-50%) is heavy insider sales past couple weeks/months + longs front running a squeeze. OTOH, cont.
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$SYM Short squeeze underway which thankfully I managed to avoid as still no shares available to short via my broker. Last time it squeezed like this, it proceeded to drop 50% from the highs in a few weeks. Insiders are already selling as of yesterday. This pump won't last long..
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@FinanceLancelot
Seems like my caveat emptor on $BOWL was justified given price action on this stock the past week. Still stand by my position that the reported short interest of 84% is false and is likely far lower
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$SYM From $47 down to $32.60 in under 2 weeks! Should have gone all in short at those prices but was risky as the float is still low with squeeze potential. Still believe it will drop hard at some point and ultimately go below $10 as it's a overvalued shitco with slowing growth..
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@ShortReportMeta
More insider selling.. Bill Boyd, CSO of $SYM sold 44k of shares worth $2.47m today. Miriam Ort, Chief of HR also 9.2k shares. Almost every insider is dumping shares.. wonder what they know..
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@EricTheUmpire
Walmart snubbing $SYM for their "next-gen" mega fulfillment centers + acquiring Alert Innovations (Alphabot) last year further questions the future growth potential for Symbotic given they are currently 90% of their revenue. Disclosure: I'm currently short $SYM
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2/ Their contracted backlog has remained basically the same since last August i.e they have not signed on any major customers in almost a year.
Head of sales & marketing (only unlocked insiders until insider lockup expiry 2 weeks ago) has been selling stocks between $13-$34
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@VitruvianMan725
They have almost no other customers. Backlog is basically Walmart and the GreenBox JV. If they were so swamped with customers, why would they feel the need to launch GreenBox, which is so far a non-existent company? I also wouldn't count G-B backlog real until they have customers
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@VitruvianMan725
Target and Albertsons both have only 2 locations with $SYM systems and both were 6-8 years ago. Glazers only committed to 1 system for now. These are all tiny deals, hence why they are so reliant on Walmart. Until Greenbox actually signs customers, it's merely a pipe dream
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$SYM
And the dump continues and now down over 8% today. Insiders have been selling consistently the past few weeks/months. Are insiders front running a negative event like an offering or SoftBank &/or Walmart selling shares, or perhaps a bad earnings report (due Mon 2 Feb AH)?
$SYM
Lockup for SoftBank shares that were purchased from CEO at $28 has now expired. Currently, $SYM is down 4% while QQQ is up 1.3%. Interestingly, short availability just increased from 25k to 250k in the past hour. Have S/B started selling already? We'll find out soon enough
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$SYM More insiders sold yesterday. Finally managed to short some shares at $58. Will keep adding higher..
$SYM Short squeeze underway which thankfully I managed to avoid as still no shares available to short via my broker. Last time it squeezed like this, it proceeded to drop 50% from the highs in a few weeks. Insiders are already selling as of yesterday. This pump won't last long..
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@StockJabber
@mukund
@BluSuitDillon
@BearCaveEmail
Meanwhile $RUM was his top long idea last year and he literally bought it at the top
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$SYM
From up 10% to red on heavy volume. Classic pump and dump. Managed to ride short from $41 to $38 (plenty of shares now available to short). Hopefully will get another opportunity to reshort..
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@ShortReportMeta
Plenty of online tools to get email alerts like Capedge or similar. Incidentally, there were another 2 insider sales yesterday $SYM
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Shorted $SYM at $57.50
This pump with tons of insider selling on a daily basis seems suspicious..
$SYM Covered my short from $58 at $52. Will take a 10% gain in 1 day, especially with a stock like this that tends to attract dip buyers so can bounce higher from here. Looking to re-enter above $55 if I'm lucky
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@LadderAscend7
Yep. Looks like Softbank transferred the 11.4m warrants from its subsidiary (Sunlight Inc) to their main company (SVF LLC). Don't think it's of significance but possibly setting up to vest some of those warrants given it's now above the exercise price of $41.97 $SYM
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$SYM No position at the moment but bearish price action today. QQQ and AI stocks are bright green whilst $SYM is dumping and every move above $40 is being pushed down immediately. Wonder if someone knows something and selling in anticipation of it? I guess we'll see soon enough..
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@BluSuitDillon
@GonzaloLimones
Yeah around that. Hardware - 30%, Software - 50-60% so around 45% combined. But they're nowhere close to achieving that as current GM's are in the mid teens and hasn't changed past few qtrs
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9/ $SYM to $STEM and $MTTR which were bid up due to their high growth but eventually the market caught on that they remained unprofitable on top of slowing growth. That combination led their steep declines and now trade at a fraction of its former market cap..
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Took just over a week for $SYM to lose almost the whole 50% earnings pump (and dump). Tons of insider sales past few days. I stand by my analysis and I'm now deep green on my short while all those who bought on earnings day and onwards are red (presuming they haven't sold)
How is your call on $SYM going Jack? It is up more than 30% since your "peak bubble" comment
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@BluSuitDillon
the market reaction (from up 8% to up 1% on this "massive" news) says it all. The headline news vs the fine print is very different
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5/ I presume that Walmart is not afraid of Greenbox becoming their competitors any time soon as otherwise they would have objected and as their main customer, Symbotic would have no choice but to oblige. I predict that the next few earnings will show slowing growth as y/y..
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$SYM Update 2: From 60 to 40 in 2 weeks! As mentioned, this earnings move was a pump and dump for insiders to unload their stock which they did. I have covered most of my short position from $51 at $40 today to lock in gains. Will reshort on a bounce but going much lower soon..
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@JabroniVille69
@_jeff_irons
@yachtking_
@FinanceLancelot
Then why is he choosing to rely on 1 source where all others contradict it. Anyone doing basic research can see that the short interest figures from FINRA makes no sense especially when based on historic float data. Can elaborate via DM if you like
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@ABII32561483
Trading View is wrong. Sec filings have the most accurate information. Dilution is not main concern, it's the float expanding that will tank the stock as they'll be no demand for those shares, hence why the CEO had to sell his shares to Softbank and not on the open market
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@BluSuitDillon
$SYM
1/ There are a couple of flaws in your research as well as lots of red flags in this company. I will list a few:
Their $12b contracted backlog is primarily from Walmart (over 90% currently) so big customer concentration risk
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8/ SoftBank has a 6 months lockup, and once that is over, they are very likely to unload at any price above that.
Above all this, once the market corrects, stocks like these with absurd valuations based on all metrics (and unprofitable) tend to drop the most.
I would compare..
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@nrossolillo
@billyBobImHim
yes, I'm aware. I've gone through it and haven't seen any mention of Berkshire Grey besides when they're mentioned as a competitor
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$SYM The author is writing false info and he knows it.
"Symbotic stock is selling for just 3 times trailing-12-month sales and 1.8 times forward sales, which makes it a relative bargain for an AI stock."
False..
Valuation is $28b (not $3b) which makes it around 17x 2024 sales
Is It Too Late to Buy
#Symbotic
#Stock
?
@themotleyfool
#stocks
#investing
#ArtificialIntelligence
#AI
#supplychain
#warehouse
#logisticsolutions
#Automation
$SYM
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$SOUN
Now down 17% to $6.15.
Regret not going all in short but was risky as it could have squeezed like $AI even on mediocre earnings
$SOUN
It's taking every bit of my self control not to go full port short $SOUN at current PM price ($7.25).
It's a true shitco worth 0 and will ultimately go back below $2. Insiders dumping millions of shares past few days with "earnings" in 2 days. Too risky for me but watching
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@enriqueabeyta
Incorrect. If you watched the clip, there's not 1 mention of Symbotic $SYM. It's actually called Alphabot which was designed specially for Walmart by startup Alert Innovation. On November 2022, Alert Innovation was acquired by Walmart
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@Biotech2k1
@nfn80
@RedDevi52539977
Rick Cohen (CEO) and his family trust own the vast majority of shares of $SYM, hence why the float is so low. He tried offloading shares to Softbank but they were only willing to pay $28 per share which was a 40% discount to current price. Lockup expires around Jan on those..
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@ShortReportMeta
It's can definitely squeeze higher but that's why I scale in slowly (on the short side). Eventually the short squeeze ends and the stock will collapse. Same thing happened last earnings where it proceeded to drop 50% from the highs in a matter of weeks
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$SYM earnings tonight. No position and no shares available to short so ripe for a squeeze hopefully. I plan to scale back in short above $50 if it gets there. Will evaluate the earnings report and decide. Float is still low so being cautious. Softbank lockup expiry almost over..
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6/ comparisons become more difficult. In the next few months, there are many catalyst that will lead to the share price dropping significantly (I think below $20 and possibly much lower). Here are a couple:
The filing for a shelf offering of $1b has just gone effective and can..
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@BluSuitDillon
Well, when I (and others) questioned your bullish view on $SYM highlighting many red flags with this company like heavy insider selling, +90% reliance on Walmart and bubble valuation amid slowing growth, you replied this..
Ironically your best call 😜
@Muffin_Man1356
@stockholder30
@OnodaCapital
You’re right. Everybody is right. You should definitely short the stock and stay away from longing this one. Huge red flags everywhere, shitty company, insane valuation. Totally driven by hype,
Best short of 2023.
Best of luck to all of you.
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@OddDiligence
@pennycheck
I imagine they would wait until after 31 Dec to ann as otherwise Softbank are obligated to contribute 100m of the offering..
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@ShortReportMeta
I left way too much on the table. Didn't expect such a turnaround. Shorted some at $50 end of day as the chart looks ready for a breakdown
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@DeepSailCapital
@BeenThereCap
I'm almost sure I saw in the filings that those shares are subject to a 6 month lockup
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