Za
@ZaStocks
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My trading and investing journal where I share charts, trading ideas, and market thoughts. Posts are not financial advice.
Boston, MA
Joined December 2020
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CNBC is running a $NVDA earnings countdown like it’s New Year’s Eve. It was a good run everybody, it’s so over.
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$TSLA
I listened to the entire earnings call so you didn’t have to. Master list of of all 29 major points discussed:
1) Low cost vehicle production possible in late 2024, likely early 2025.
2) Referred to Robotaxi as “Cyber Cab”.
3) Has installed roughly 35,000 H100 training
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Cathie dumped $PLTR out of her top 20 positions over the last few months and today she added 1,967,732 shares after it gaps up 30%. She's an absolute joke of a money manager. Unbelievable.
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After this $META presentation I can confidently say I think the stock is going to $1,000/share. I’d even argue it’s the best positioned name in the Mag 7 for this AI breakthrough we’re going to experience in the coming years.
Must own stock. These glasses are revolutionary.
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$PLTR
Rule of 40 score is now 64.
“The Rule of 40 is a principle that states a company's combined revenue growth rate and profit margin should equal or exceed 40%”
Palantir has the highest rule of 40 in the entire market.
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$DWAC $DJT
$175M straight cash. Iconic.
Tiny float. Insiders can’t sell shares for 6 months. I think this is a $200-$300+ stock by the election.
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One thing you can take away from the awful $TSLA earnings call is that $NVDA earnings should be great.
Elon said the demand for Nvidia’s GPU’s is so big that Tesla is doubling down on Dojo because Nvidia is selling out of their chips so fast.
Bullish $NVDA $SMCI $ARM $MU $TSM
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Kamala Harris announced that she backs Biden’s 44.6% tax on capital gains along with a 25% tax on unrealized gains.
Wow.
Imagine you own a stock, it goes up, you pay unrealized taxes on it, then it comes back down and you end up losing money.
Then what? Refund? What a mess.
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The move to
@CharlesSchwab
has been a nightmare with issues at every turn. I’d advise everyone to avoid using their platform.
Thinkorswim functions much worse than it used to, the Schwab app is a joke/archaic, and both apps crash consistently.
Such an absolute joke.
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$AMZN
The rumors of Jeff Bezos buying the Boston Celtics are heating up according to Bill Simmons.
Few notes from his podcast:
-Bezos would build an “Amazon Dome” somewhere in Boston which would be the new state of the art arena for basketball, concerts, etc.
-Bezos wants to
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$AMZN
After reading the specifics of the Bezos sales plan it looks like he isn’t selling any shares under $200.
Basically every tick over $200 will need to see buyers to match Jeff’s selling until he’s done. Once that lid comes off the move will be explosive.
$250-$300
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In case you were wondering yes Cathie bought 450,000 shares of $PATH yesterday before it dropped 30% today.
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$NVDA
Seeing “breaking news” on Friday night at 11PM that the Blackwell chip is delayed. “The Information” is notorious for awful reporting.
Just 2-3 days ago at Siggraph 2024 Jensen said “we're sending out engineering samples of Blackwell, all over the world."
Nvidia last
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Last 5 year performance of the Magnificent 7:
$AMZN: +91%
$AAPL: +331%
$GOOGL: +211%
$META: +161%
$MSFT: +225%
$NVDA: +3,447%
$TSLA: +1,149%
$QQQ: +157%
One of these names stands out and is due to play some catch up.
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On Monday I’ll officially be forced over to Schwab after using TD Ameritrade my entire trading career. From what I’ve seen Schwab app is horrible.
Weekend ruined.
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$AMZN
Ok had a chance to look over the report.
I’m fine coming to the conclusion many have already, Jassy is a major disappointment.
Quarter was fine but nothing to be excited about (what else is new). I tried giving him a chance but at this point there’s nothing else to see,
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$PLTR
I listened to Alex Karp’s comments on the Palantir earnings call so you didn’t have to. Here’s a recap:
1) “We crushed Q1 in the US, we’re on fire”
2) 67% growth in the US commercial segment.
3) Deal growth in the US 70 to 136 in 1 year.
4) General enthusiasm around
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$CELH
4 main catalysts for this selloff, perfect recipe to create the price destruction we’re seeing today.
1) Morgan Stanley noting that Celsius is losing market share.
2) Reports that someone died due to liver failure after drinking 2 Celsius’ per day.
3) The convertible
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$SMCI
Elon confirms Super Micro Computer is building out xAI’s supercomputer.
This chart looks ready to explode.
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$PLTR
I listened to the earnings call so you don’t have to.
Main points:
1. Strong execution in US commercial and re-acceleration in government
2. Market quickly awakening; Palantir stands alone in delivering AI at scale
3. Enterprise AI opportunity is unprecedented
4. $200B
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$PLTR
This report is one of the most impressive I’ve seen in a long time. Holy shit.
EPS $0.09 vs $0.08 est
Rev 678.1M vs $653.23M est
27% YOY Rev growth
33% Commercial Rev growth
24% YOY Gov Rev growth
US commercial customer count 83%
Big guidance raise
One word: Wow.
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Elon Musk in 2019: I believe $TSLA will be a $500B+ company.
Tesla market cap:
2019: $75B
2024: $710B✅
Alex Karp in 2024: I believe $PLTR can be 10x larger than we are today.
Palantir market cap:
2024: $80B
2029: ?
Elon was called crazy then, Alex is being called crazy now.
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$NVDA
$TSM reported July revenue of $7.49B, +44.7% YOY.
Everything is aligning for Nvidia to report great earnings.
-Record big tech CAPEX
-AMD: “data center demand isn’t slowing down”
-TSMC reports record AI chip demand
Stock down 30% headed into the report. Great setup.
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$NVDA
This is being bought so strongly today for 2 main reasons.
1) Microsoft’s AI commentary and CAPEX projections. This is very different from Google. Microsoft has significant revenue generating AI applications (CoPilot) already and even has an inside look into the leading
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$PLTR
One of the most bullish weekly candles I’ve seen. 50% move from the lows engulfing 25 weeks of price action, these are rare. This week they blew out earnings, partnered w/ Microsoft and announced Wendy’s is implementing their AIP product.
Market leader. All dips buyable.
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Some nice big tech upgrades today.
Citigroup raises price target on $NVDA to $250
Rosenblatt upgrades $AAPL to buy, raises price target to $260
Bank of America reiterates buy on $AMZN, raises price target to $220
Jeffries reiterates buy on $GOOG, raises price target to $215
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The 5 horseman of the rate cut theme:
$AFRM $UPST $RKT $Z $TREE
If you pull up a chart of any of these names you’ll see they’re on the verge of exploding higher.
You could focus on these 5 stocks for the foreseeable future and probably outperform if you nail your entry.
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When I get loud about an idea such as $TSLA $250 10/10, $BTC under $57K, $AMD $150, $RDFN $9, $COIN $150, $RKLB $6, etc. it’s because I’m sized into it. I don’t really pound the table about ideas unless I’m confident because I want everyone here to make money, that’s the goal.
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$AMZN
If Jeff really can’t sell unless the stock is over $200 I don’t see how they don’t finally initiate a dividend and announce a massive buyback this quarter.
That would assuredly get the stock back over $200 so he can sell. Same playbook as $GOOGL last quarter.
Do it Andy.
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$AMZN
Bezos sold about $863M and again not a single share sold below $200. That’s the lowest price he’s going to sell.
Sucks but he’s not close to being done, he’s selling $5B total and has only sold about $1B.
$AMZN
After reading the specifics of the Bezos sales plan it looks like he isn’t selling any shares under $200.
Basically every tick over $200 will need to see buyers to match Jeff’s selling until he’s done. Once that lid comes off the move will be explosive.
$250-$300
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The $130s $TSLA bottom has to be known as the Ross Gerber/Gary Black bottom from now on. They nailed capitulating at the lows.
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$PLTR
Peter Thiel is now selling $1B in shares.
There was also a block sale made for a total of $340M in after hours. The underwriter of this sale? BoFA, the same bank that announced a $50 target this morning.
Realize this: Analyst price targets aren’t there to help you.
$PLTR
$50 price target from BoFA this morning.
Karp is the type of CEO his employees would run through a brick wall for and it’s rare to find that type of person leading a company. Have to think everyone who works there walks into work every morning mission oriented and
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Going long $HOOD here for the next month or so because Schwab is the worst trading app I’ve ever seen seems like a good bet. What a horrific platform.
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@BillAckman
Funny how all of a sudden Americans are unable to lose weight and are told "obesity is a disease" now that GLP1's exist.
If you stop taking it you gain the weight back, they want people taking these drugs for life. It's like a subscription biz for big pharm.
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$AMZN
Jefferies upgrades Amazon’s price target to $235.
The amount of upgrades this has gotten over the last few weeks is funny, it’s like every bank is collaborating to push it over $200 through Jeff’s selling.
Jeff you can’t hold the train back much longer..
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Short $HIMS.
Anyone chanting death to America, trying to destroy the American flag, and causing chaos on college campuses should be arrested.
The US has become an absolute circus.
Moral courage > College degree
If you’re currently protesting against the genocide of the Palestinian people & for your university’s divestment from Israel, keep going. It’s working.
There are plenty of companies & CEOs eager to hire you, regardless of university discipline.
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Rates coming down is going to benefit many different sectors but in my opinion the 5 groups most impacted will be:
Solar
EV
Fintech
Housing
Biotech
3 favorite names from each group:
$FSLR $ENPH $RUN
$TSLA $RIVN $AEHR
$UPST $AFRM $SQ
$Z $RDFN $RKT
$CRSP $SAVA $MRNA
This will be
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$NVDA
Jensen on CNBC earlier was super bullish. He claimed Blackwell is in full production and demand is “insane”. This could be the catalyst needed to get chips going again.
Looking at this chart it’s been a series of lower highs since ATH at $140.70. To confirm a resumption
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Rumors swirling that
@BillAckman
is going to be revealing a new position or two in the coming days/next week.
Flows and price action in $SBUX $NKE $PYPL lead me to believe one or two of these names will be included.
Fits his MO of buying distressed/beaten down big name brands.
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This bottom in the market on 8/5 looks and feels like the same one we had in October 2023.
Back in October we bounced off the 200D and had multiple breakaway gaps (we’ve had multiple breakaway gaps in the last 10 days) without a real pullback to let anyone get in. It felt and
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Might be controversial:
If any stock will be the poster boy of the AI “bubble” it’ll be $SMCI. Not $NVDA.
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CPI in line.
Jackson Hole next week and the setup is perfect to get out of this downtrend. A cool PPI, in line CPI, dovish Powell and $NVDA earnings can send the markets back towards ATH’s with ease.
Pullback into Jackson Hole would set up a launchpad.
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Haven’t seen action in one sector like this in a long time.
$PATH $MDB -30%+
$CRM -20%
$S -17%
$NOW $NET $CFLT -10%+
$OKTA $CRWD $GTLB $CRWD $DDOG $SNOW -7%
$MNDY $HUBS -6%
It’s obvious that AI isn’t giving these companies the earnings boost investors initially expected.
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$AMZN
The biggest beneficiary of robotics, AI, and an increasing cloud based world is sitting in plain sight way below a $3T market cap.
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$SMCI
NASDAQ inclusion didn’t get much of a reaction, I think we could see an earnings preannouncement in the coming weeks. Potentially a split too, the CEO knows how to pump.
Chart shows what I expect. Thinking a few weeks of consolidation then an explosive move to new ATH’s.
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Everybody is expecting a pullback into or after Jackson Hole (myself included) which may be why we just rip to new ATH’s before anyone has the chance to get in.
Textbook lockout rally.
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If $INTC couldn’t even outperform the market during the biggest semi/chip bull run in history it might actually go to single digits at some point.
What an awful company with terrible management.
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$NVDA
Another thing to think about re: the “Blackwell delay”:
It’s been almost 2 days since the initial report.
Why haven’t any other major news outlets picked up on this or confirmed the report? “The Information” had the scoop but WSJ, Bloomberg, and CNBC didn’t?
Doubt.
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$AMD
Everyone sees it and is thinking the same thing, this looks exactly like $TSLA before it exploded higher. Everyone knows it’s not $NVDA but it’s one of the few companies making revenue from AI.
Starting the breakout, think we see this move towards $180 in the coming days.
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$AMZN
These headlines say all there is you need to know. Robotics, nuclear energy, AI, and cloud services.
To me the chart is showing a higher low around $185 right above previous resistance. If the market firms up Jeff won’t be able to stop the breakout that’s coming.
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Last night I had my first experience with Tesla FSD and I was blown away. Downtown Boston with tons of traffic and difficult to navigate spaces.
The Uber pulled up in a Tesla and we started talking, he asked if I’d heard of FSD. I said yeah and he asked if I wanted to try it,
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$SNOW
Here’s what Jensen had to say about the $NVDA and Snowflake partnership.
If true, the earnings report we’re getting from Snowflake today should beat. The collaboration began in June ‘23, about 8 months ago. That’s enough time to see the numbers reflect the partnership.
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$HIMS long thesis was simple in hindsight.
America is filled with fat bald depressed guys who can’t get hard and Hims is the one company who’s addressing all of those issues at once.
Very bullish Hims but bearish America.
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The “beaten down consumer names nobody wears, shops at, or eats at anymore” list:
$NKE $MCD $SBUX $TGT $LULU $ULTA
I think this is another group that could see some major rotation inflows in the weeks ahead.
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$META and $TSLA are the two Magnificent 7 names to own outside of $NVDA from here in my opinion.
What separates these two from all of the others is they’re the two biggest companies applying AI to the real/physical world. AI enabled consumer centric devices the world has never
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People who shorted $TSLA at $160 but not $400, $300, or $200 are crying about “pumping”. Embarrassing.
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$AMZN
List of upgrades since Jeff announced his $5B sale on 7/1:
TD Cowen: Buy, $245
Roth MKM: Buy, $210
Needham: Buy, $205
Redburn: Buy, $250
Mirae: Buy, $238
Jefferies: Buy, $235
Bernstein: Outperform, $210
Wedbush: Outperform, $225
Monness: Buy, $225
Mizuho: Outperform, $240
$AMZN
Jefferies upgrades Amazon’s price target to $235.
The amount of upgrades this has gotten over the last few weeks is funny, it’s like every bank is collaborating to push it over $200 through Jeff’s selling.
Jeff you can’t hold the train back much longer..
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$NVDA
I don’t think the large cap trade is as dead as everyone is making it seem. This AI cycle has only lasted 1.5 years. I think we see a bounce here or very soon.
Reminds me of $BTC. Ugly chart and everyone saying “double top/lower high, going to $100.”
We’ll see.
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Wow the bravery of people to now start claiming the AI trade is dead when:
$NVDA -20%
$AVGO -20%
$ARM -25%
$SMCI -40%
$AMD -40%
Where were these people at the top or even close to it? Probably cheering and calling for higher.
If this isn’t bottom we’re close to it.
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$SMCI
Not to pile on but a few things look scammy:
1) The decreasing margins and increasing revenue.
2) The massive guide up and stock split masking the awful revenue and EPS.
Doesn’t help there’s a history here of accounting fraud.
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$AFRM and $UPST look like they’re going to explode. Perfect environment, charts, and sentiment.
Many still question whether or not their biz models can work, just what you want to see. When everyone is consensus bullish it’s rarely the time to buy.
$100+ potential on both.
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Add $CRWD and $SMCI to the list of stocks that absolutely cratered after being added to the S&P500.
Since their additions:
Crowdstrike -40%
Super Micro -60%
Lesson:
Don’t buy companies after they’re added to the S&P500.
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$AMZN
Sentiment is so bad it reminds me of $AAPL before it took off.
Everyone was saying Apple has no innovation/AI but then they beat earnings, announced a record buyback, and had their AI event.
Earnings beat, buyback/dividend, and AI event coming for Amazon? I think so.
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$AMZN
Expectations couldn’t be lower going into ER, no big tech company has gapped up after reporting so far.
The $MSFT cloud miss might mean AWS is taking share. Add a dividend or buyback for Jeff to dump his shares into and Amazon will fly.
Don’t mess this up
@ajassy
.
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My thinking is yes the bottom is in.
Everyone is calling for us to drop and retest the low so they can buy, typically means it doesn’t happen.
-16% on the NASDAQ and -10% on the S&P500 are both legit corrections.
Pullbacks likely but I think we reach new ATH’s before 2025.
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$META
The Zuck turnaround is unparalleled.
Tonight he and Meta came out admitting they were censoring information during COVID. He committed to never doing it again and said he’ll no longer be donating to either political party.
Stock is too cheap at $1.3T market cap.
$2T+
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50BPS now and another 50BPS to come in 2024.
Fed sees rates at 3.4% in 2025.
WOW.
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In the next two weeks we have two of the biggest catalysts until the election in November.
Jackson Hole and $NVDA earnings
Have to think Powell will be dovish at Jackson Hole after last week, maybe a dip early next week to set the stage for a rally into Nvidia’s report.
HAGW🥂
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$META
I think this could emerge as the market leader over the coming months. Earnings call was fantastic and they have the AI blueprint.
It’s held up better than any mega cap tech name and is only a $1.2T market cap.
Should be closer to $2T which is about $750-$800/share.
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Fintwit’s quant
@fundstrat
has spoken.
S&P 500 to 15,000.
Seems crazy but I’ve thought that about a few of his predictions and they’ve come to fruition.
Not a guy to bet against.
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Huge beat on retail sales and unemployment lower than expected. This comes the same morning we had great Walmart earnings
The economy is doing better than most think.
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$IWM
The last 2 times stocks got this tight in $AMD $TSLA they exploded higher, I think we’re close to that here.
I can feel sentiment getting worse by the day and it seems like a lot of people are giving up, that makes me think this is about to breakout.
My target is $230.
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This coming week has to be one of the most anticipated sell offs/gap down Monday’s ever.
-Buffett sells $50B of $AAPL
-Unconfirmed story about $NVDA delaying Blackwell until 2025
-Middle East war rumors
-NASDAQ red 4 weeks in a row
Seems fitting for this week to be green.
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$UPST
I think this could prove to be $CVNA 2.0.
Everyone was confident it was a bubble company with no MOAT and in the end it turns out the business is pretty viable. Earnings were better than feared especially for the environment we’re in.
Top of my focus list.
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$CELH
Went to Costco this weekend and saw people fighting to grab these on sale. Feels like a lot of the panic over Celsius is confined to Twitter, most consumers who drink this (I don’t) know it’s unhealthy.
$50-$57 an accumulation zone, I think this bounces back to $70 soon.
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$UBER
This reminds me of the $META and $NOW charts I posted before they exploded higher. One of my favorite setups in the entire market right now.
Everyone is nervous about the $TSLA 10/10 Robotaxi event being bearish for Uber but I think if anything it’s bullish for Uber that
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Wiz is walking away from the $23B sale with Google. This comes after seeing the Crowdstrike debacle.
This is what I’ve been talking about re: $S and $PANW. Competitors smell blood in the water.
I see many brushing this off calling the drop a “buying opportunity.” Big mistake.
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$TSLA
Look what we have here... bears spent the last few days dunking on longs just for the selling to be a shakeout. Two big green candles and +10% from the lows later we've got a runner on our hands
Shorts are going to get blasted imo, $300 target.
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Focus is on $IWM. Looks ready to explode again and with the Fed meeting not being until mid September I think we see this front run and breakout in the next week or two.
$RDFN the main name I’m watching and think it has $20+ potential. $TSLA still $250 by 10/10.
HAGW🥂
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$AMZN
Headline from next month:
“Amazon sees record Prime Day, sales bolstered by new AI shopping technology. Ads see all time high impressions”
$200+.
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I’m noticing a lot of people say we saw “peak fear” yesterday.
Peak fear is when traders stop trying to buy the dip. Everyone on my feed bought yesterday. A flush out below the recent lows wouldn’t surprise me.
Maybe we did bottom but I’m just preparing for any scenario.
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Are we in the midst of the the 8-10% pullback everyone has been expecting?
If not, these spots in big tech, specifically $META and $AMZN look good to put some risk on.
Maybe a little more downside ahead but I prefer to buy fear/key support areas.
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$SPWR
90% short interest and the solar theme is catching on again. There’s a history of massive squeezes:
$4 to $42 in 2013-2014
$4 to $57 in 2020-2021
$4 to $25+ next?
I don’t think it’s crazy to say we could see this go from $4 to $20-$25 if the solar momentum continues.
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Lots of good looking charts out there right now but these are the main names on my watchlist that I think can provide big returns into EOY:
$RDDT $PLTR $AVGO $TSLA $COHR $FSLR $RUN $OSCR $RDFN $AFRM $UPST $VKTX
Long a few and looking to get long others, this is my focus list.
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$UBER
Price was $62-$64 when I was pounding the table on it a few weeks back, now approaching $75. This company is going to be a monster and will be a mega beneficiary of autonomous vehicles. $500B market cap by/before 2030 imo.
Nothing stopping this from ATH, $100s coming.
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PPI light. CPI likely light tomorrow as well.
The rising wedge/bear flag in the indexes has to be the most anticipated and talked about bearish chart pattern I’ve seen in a while.
Everyone is posting about it and expects us to go back down. It’s rarely that obvious.
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@Jake__Wujastyk
Check out the McGill Big 3. You won’t fix anything going to a chiro, you’ll have to keep going back forever. Strengthening core/glutes and stretching will do 10x more than a chiro.
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$SHOP
This setup looks ready. Another sympathy to $AMZN, I think the Amazon breakout could ignite the entire online retail sector so I’m watching these names closely. Solid company, sold off way too hard last quarter imo.
Weekly close over $67.50 can push to $80+.
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The mega caps $META $AMZN $AAPL reporting next week aren’t sitting at ATH’s which presents a much better/easier setup.
Same with the chip names $ARM $AMD, I’m thinking a few of these have nice reactions and propel the market back up in the weeks ahead.
Happy Friday.
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Safe to say the market is growing tired of the semi names.
Both $NVDA and $AVGO with double beats and solid guidance getting sold off. Market participants are looking for more at this stage of the game. They want to see use cases and revenue generation.
Jobs report tomorrow
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