Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
@skalemliozcan
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Mom, Economist, Professor, Avid Reader, Researcher, Writer, Women+Education Advocate. Views are my own.
DC; Providence; Istanbul
Joined January 2015
I am proud to give a congressional testimony on unequal global vaccinations and global supply chain disruptions. As the title of the hearing goes: A global crisis needs a global solution, here is the link: hearing and written testimony:
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New beginnings at my alma mater! Super excited to be back at @BrownUniversity to teach, research and work on establishing the Global Linkages Lab---a new platform for international dialogue, exchanging ideas, and undertaking collaborative research to inform evidence-based policy
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This is insane. Turkish case should be studied in all econ textbooks: How can you sink your currency with colossal monetary policy mistakes, eroding policy credibility and driving your risk premia to the roof in an emerging market with good fundamentals!.
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Finally out! We share the capital flows by sector data with everyone and will update it regularly in real time!.
Forthcoming article by @StefanAvdjiev @BryanHardy9 @skalemliozcan @LuisServen1 “Gross Capital Flows by Banks, Corporates and Sovereigns” @EEANews @OUPEconomics. Teaching slides available:
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Our paper that constructs quarterly data for capital flows by sector since 1996q1 is forthcoming @JEEA_News and data is posted @BIS_org . To understand the vulnerability of corporates, banks and sovereigns to capital flows, this data is essential:
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All are welcome to our first women in international economics conference!
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Super happy to see this paper finally out in RESTUD showing the risk channel of US monetary policy spillovers to emerging markets with amazing micro data from Turkey (we started working on this paper during 2010 US-QE!):.
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A long run started in 2012! Our "data paper" providing a guide for constructing representative firm data from ORBIS is in @AEAjournals. To show the importance of using representative data, we draw out implications for SME financing/concentration trends:.
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I highly recommend this lecture on inflation by @IvanWerning and thanks so much for citing our work on inflation and supply chains! Proud to be in the endogenous cost push shock group since 2021 with our early paper on inflation!
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For all who are thinking about pursuing an Econ PhD and want to learn more about international econ, global connections over trade and finance, please come work with us at our new Global Linkages Hub @BrownUniversity ! Apply here:
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Our paper is out, w/@GitaGopinath and Mitali Das on the effects of pre-emptive policies to deal with capital flows related risk shocks for emerging markets; our work is related to IMF's influential IPF framework that I had the pleasure to contribute to:
Emerging markets can reduce their external finance premia during risk-off shocks by employing preemptive policies before these shocks, from Mitali Das, Gita Gopinath, and @skalemliozcan
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1st summer school in international was so much learning and fun in beautiful Crete! Thanks to organizers @JavierBianchi7 ,Martin Uribe, Costas Arkolakis, Natalia Ramondo, our host U. of Crete for giving us the opportunity to teach amazing students in trade & international macro!
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Emmanuel, my dear friend, we loved you, we miss you. You were so brilliant, so kind, so much to give, a spectacular economist, an incredible person, a true friend. The world is less bright without you.
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Please submit your papers to the upcoming NBER research conference on May 7-8, 2025, in Istanbul, hosted by the Central Bank of Türkiye. The deadline is February 2025!.
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Had a great time presenting our work w/@pierredeleo @GitaGopinath and listening interesting papers on "Macro in EM" conference honoring Martin Uribe, organized by Vivian Yue and Pablo Ottonello!
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Here is NBER video on our paper predicting, 9 months ago, the detrimental effect of supply chain disruptions on recovery with uneven global vaccinations. Rich gain from investing in vaccinating the poor: "no economy fully recovers, until everyone does":
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To all juniors of 2024-2025 job market working in international macro, international finance, international trade, domestic macro, we are hiring @BrownUniversity, here is our add, please apply!
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Excellent speech by @GitaGopinath on emerging markets; what should they do to weather the storms coming from a global uncertain economic environment!
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TL exchange rate since 1970s, the figure tells all:
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Had a great time at this year's Jackson Hole! Great program, nature, excellent hosting and an amazing number of women economists! Thank you @KansasCityFed !
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Great program by IMF @IMFNews #ARCPOLAK, @pogourinchas, @GitaGopinath, to honor Maury Obstfeld, from whom I learned tremendously! Check out amazing papers below:.
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Coverage of our inflation paper by @nytimes. The role of supply shocks/bottlenecks/labor shortages in driving consumer demand led inflation much higher is important to understand in a world of more supply shocks and a possible de-globalization.
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This is a "must-watch" lecture! Our session on EM capital flows, featuring 4 papers from @GitaGopinath @guido_lorenzoni @JavierBianchi7 @itskhoki @anusha_chari, Dima Mukhin, Kristin Forbes, with great discussants, contributing to New Foundations for International Macro Policy.
It is time for "New Foundations for International Macro Policy" & to update our textbooks. You can watch my lecture here: @Susan_Athey's kind introduction starts at minute 34 & my lecture at minute 40.
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1/Here is a great interview from @ecb chief economist Phil Lane @FT w/@martinwolf_ on the current inflation debate in US and Europe. Our academic research on inflation with its sectoral network focus backs this up:
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Had a great time learning from the timely and insightful papers #JacksonHole2024 , and meeting many friends @guido_lorenzoni, @profsufi ! Thank you.@KansasCityFed for inviting us and including so many women economists!
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It was a pity that #ASSA2023 had fewer people but it had many celebrations! With much negative in global economy, 2023 needs to celebrate great research, great lectures, great leadership more and more! Thanks @AEAInformation @AEAjournals @Susan_Athey @GitaGopinath @itskhoki
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Looking forward to 2nd Women in International Economics Conference, here is the program, please join:
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I am honored to be featured with all these great women for the CEPR/UBS Women in Economics initiative!.
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``Fear'' of slower growth, not `actual slower growth' led markets ignore fundamentals: Monetary policy is doing its job---economy is cooling, not cracking. International implications depend on both FED's actions and investor-risk-sentiments, as we study:.
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There is nothing surprising in current Turkish situation: if such a credit boom is financed with foreign debt instead of structural reforms, this type of crisis and loss of value in currency is inevitable as I wrote 4 years ago:
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Great speech by Chair Powell at Jackson Hole citing our work on inflation. Our work, quantifies how inflation went up and came down due to pandemic-related supply and demand shocks in a multi-sector-country world, linking cost push shocks and labor market.
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Our new NBER @nberpubs paper on risk-taking and monetary policy transmission shows the importance of heterogeneity in macro-finance using detailed loan-firm-bank level data from the U.S.
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Celebrating Calvo with dear friends, at this amazing conference organized by @Columbia @NYFedResearch @andyneumeyer, Martin Uribe. I am honored to present our work with @GitaGopinath @pierredeleo on monetary policy cyclicality in emerging markets:
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Aynen. Üniversite eğitimi uzakdan olmaz. Bu çok ama çok yanlış. Üniversitelere, eğitime, bilgiye, bilime 20 yıldır değer verilmediği için zaten bu noktadayız. #TurkeyEarthquake @SelvaDemiralp @ugurses @HandeDemireltv @DidemArslanoglu @takyol96.
Yurt genelinde üniversitelerin uzaktan eğitime geçmesi depremin zararlarını geleceğe yayar. Hiçbir alternatif, yarınlara attığımız temellerimiz olan gençlerimizi kaybetmekten daha maliyetli değil. Temelleri zayıf atılan hiçbir şey ayakta kalamaz.
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Honored to present our work decomposing demand and supply drivers of Euro area and US inflation to central banking community and academics at #ECBForum, paper, slides and video of the presentation here:
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Great macro annual! My discussion, the 2nd paper by Camara, Christiano, Dalgic-the International Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism-that shows both trade and financial channels work to contract EM output with FED hikes:
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Excited that our paper w/@pogourinchas , Veronika Penciakova, Nick Sander is forthcoming @JEEA_News. A novel channel, tested with European firm data during COVID: firm exit during liquidity shocks depends on government support under financial frictions.
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My interview from yesterday @BloombergTV #JacksonHole2023 : 1) Stay with restrictive monetary policy until 2%. 2) Soft landing was always possible as shown in our 21-22 global production network papers. 3) Sectoral labor supply shocks are inflationary.
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1/3 of the US inflation, as of end of 2021 is from supply side factors, inflation would have been 6 percent w/o the 3 percent coming from supply shocks as we have argued at the #ECBForum
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Looking forward to our @nberpubs presentation on emerging market monetary policies w/@GitaGopinath @pierredeleo next week!.
Do emerging market central banks raise rates when the US Fed does? They do not. However, even though they cut rates, market rates tend to rise from tightening global financial conditions, impairing monetary policy effectiveness. @pierredeleo @skalemliozcan
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Conference for the mind and the soul!.Papers at Women in Macro conference @VeronicaGuerri7 @afogli001 @mazzimon77 .range from macro-effects of exchange rates to homelessness!
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Recent @TheEconomist coverage of our work with @GitaGopinath, @pierredeleo on emerging market monetary policies and why they can be ineffective in the face of importance of external factors/finance:
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I am honored to be part of the celebrations for Mark Gertler's birthday and BBVA award for Gertler, Bernanke, Kiyotaki and Moore at this amazing conference with super interesting papers:
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Happy to present our paper w/@GitaGopinath and @pierredeleo on short-rate disconnect at this great conference on capital flows organized by @AmbrogioCB , @bankofengland that featured a fantastic keynote by @helene_rey and a policy panel on fragmentation--program and slides are.
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Excited to present our paper w/@liliana_vvarela at the @nberpubs this morning , live here, that speaks to volatile capital flows, interest rates and exchange rates in emerging markets---a case in point is Turkey as recently covered in FT:
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Thrilled to be part of the @ecb monetary policy conference: bridging science and practice and present our work w/ @MattDarst3 and Cecilia Caglio on heterogenous monetary policy transmission through firm credit markets! Here are all the presentations from this amazing two-day
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I was thrilled to teach at this great big data initiative:
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Our work that makes the economic case for global vaccinations with my colleagues @SelvaDemiralp , @Cem_Cakmakli, Sevcan Yeşiltaş, and Muhammed Ali Yıldırım is featured in FT today!.
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Having a wonderful time at Women in Macro Conference; great papers, amazing company! Thank you @VeronicaGuerri7 @mazzimon77 @afogli001 hosted by the UCSB, program chairs @Ale_M_Peter and Corina Boar, program here:
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We are looking forward to applications from all graduate students who are interested in international!.
Announcing the first Summer School in International Economics. Hosted by University of Crete (Rethymnon, Greece) June 14-16, 2023. Lectures by @LucaFornaro3, @skalemliozcan, Mendoza, Costinot, Eaton & Rappoport. PhD students, apply by January 30:
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Amazing women power!.
Lots of good meetings at @ecb Forum in Sintra. @Lagarde @Isabel_Schnabel @helene_rey, Silvana Tenreyro
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Looking forward to the NBER EFG meeting today! We are presenting our paper on U.S. monetary policy transmission during low interest rate period of 2012-2019 with heterogenous firms and banks!
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Together w/@BryanHardyEcon, @StefanAvdjiev, @luisser, we spent years on establishing this data, published @JEEA_News. It is the only data that can show capital flows/currency related vulnerabilities before crises. It is super that everyone can use it real-time thanks to @BIS_org!.
The literature has long ignored the sectoral composition of gross capital flows. Great to see the updated dataset of international capital flows and stocks by sector: @BIS_org @StefanAvdjiev @BryanHardyEcon @skalemliozcan @luisser Luis Servén.
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Türkiye yabancı yatırıcımcıdan borç alan bir ülke, borçlanma faizi küresel risk prim i ile hareket eder (şekil), yabancı yatırımcı negatif real faiz den borç vermez, kaçar ve enflasyon ve kur daha kötüye gider:
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My new piece in Project Syndicate on the Neo-Fisherian experiment of Turkey and why this will not work in a small open economy that finances its growth with capital flows:
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Martin Wolf's coverage of our work on the economic case for global vaccinations in FT:.
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Had a wonderful time at the 10th Asian Monetary Policy Forum, discussing the great paper by Maury Obstfeld and visiting beautiful Singapore!
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2/2 Our work calculated trillions in costs of not vaccinating the poor countries for the rich countries; a return on investment in COVAX of 166 times. @IMFNews shows even bigger returns with investing in increasing vaccine supply!
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Super happy to be at the Women in Macro 2022 @WomenInMacro ! Great program put together by amazing @afogli001 @VeronicaGuerri7 @mazzimon77.
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Listened great papers at the conference by the @IMFNews on Advances in Monetary Economics and honored to be speaking in the policy panel on inflation together with @ojblanchard1 , @pogourinchas and Phil Lane.
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Great article from @SoumayaKeynes. If you want to learn how to be a more useful economist, come and work with us at the Global Linkages Lab at @BrownUniversity and apply for the pre-doc position: last day to apply is tomorrow!.
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Looking forward to Pierre-Olivier's @pogourinchas presentation of our joint work today with Veronika Penciakova and Nick Sander, and other talks, at the Jackson Hole conference,
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Why policy credibility is key for FX market? w/@liliana_vvarela, in Policy uncertainty can explain key puzzles for international risky arbitrage, more common for EMs. This is why UK is now an EM, fiscal credibility is questionable as in @Francesco_Bia.
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Great conference on Geoeconomics, thanks @MSchularick , @Ch_Trebesch, @cepr_org. It was a great honor for me to deliver the laudation for @GitaGopinath, recipient of Bernard Harms prize! Here is the video for the prize ceremony and paper presentations:
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Had a great time and learned a lot, at the 4th WE_ARE_IN macro-finance-international conference organized by @ecb , @BancoDeEspana , and @BIS_org , presenting our joint work on EM monetary policies w/@GitaGopinath and @pierredeleo ! Thank you @helene_rey , @Bea_GonzalezL ,.
🚨 Live now!.The 4th WE_ARE_IN Macroeconomics & Finance Conference joint with @ecb, @BancoDeEspana, and @BIS_org has just kicked off!.Watch the livestream to hear from women in Economics sharing new insights into macroeconomics & finance.🔗
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In general strong USD is associated with FED hikes, even though their effects on EM are different. This hints at the key channel underlying international spillovers of US monetary policy. Our paper w/@dfilizunsal, Cristi and Sans @AEAjournals explains:
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I had a great interview with @colbyLsmith of @FT ! Thank you for this great article summarizing my views and others' on FED, interest rates and inflation!
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We have worked on an extension of this paper that explains how much of the aggregate demand effect is due to fiscal stimulus: I will be presenting at the ASSA, Deglobalization session, January 6-"Quantifying the inflationary impact of fiscal stimulus under supply constraints".
From July #CEPRin2022.CEPR Discussion Paper - DP17449.Global Supply Chain Pressures, International Trade, and Inflation.Julian di Giovanni @NewYorkFed, @skalemliozcan,@Asilvub @UofMaryland, Muhammed Yildirim @kocuniversity @HarvardCID.
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Here is our new paper that decomposes "observed" inflation in US and Eurozone, during 2020-2021, into supply and demand side drivers based on influential network model of @DBaqaee and Emmanuel Farhi. We also calculate exported/imported inflation.
COVID-19 response policies aimed at stimulating aggregate demand would not have produced such high inflation without the negative sectoral supply shocks, from Julian di Giovanni, @skalemliozcan, @asilvub, and Muhammed A. Yildirim
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Great to be in Paris at the @cepr_org Symposium, and giving the keynote on US monetary policy transmission!
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New name for financial repression: monetary policy transmission. Macroprudential policy is used to cap risk premia evident in diverging lending rates and policy rates. Textbook case---why EMs w/o monetary policy credibility cannot also use macroprudential.
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I am honored to give the keynote lecture today at the Barcelona Forum, Firms in the Global Economy!.
Don’t miss the keynote delivered by my amazing co-author @skalemliozcan today on firms in the global economy at Barcelona GSE Summer Forum!.Webinar Registration- Zoom
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Thanks to @pogourinchas for moderating the policy panel @IMFNews 25th Annual Research Conference and to my fantastic co-panelists @Isabel_Schnabel , @R2Rsquared and Nathan Sheets. It was an amazing conference with great new papers! Here is the video:
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Sevgili arkadaşım, @SelvaDemiralp dan Türkiye ekonomisi 101 dersi! Yanlış ekonomik politikalara rağmen nasıl büyüyoruz?. My good friend and co-author @SelvaDemiralp explains why there is still growth in Turkey in spite of bad economic policies.
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Honored to give the keynote today on emerging market monetary policies at the 60th meeting of the network of central banks and finance ministries organized by @the_IDB during the #WBGMeetings, #IMFMeetings.
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Looking forward!.
Welcome Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan (@skalemliozcan), from the University of Maryland (@UofMaryland), as keynote speaker to SHoF’s annual conference. She will present insights from her research on international transmission of US monetary policy index. Register:
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So frustrating to see the same policy mistake again and again in a large emerging market such as Turkey. Our earlier PS piece predicts this crisis exactly the way it is unfolding based on lost monetary policy credibility:
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Looking forward to my plenary at Midwest Macro tonight @SMUEconDept, @SposiMichael and also Esteban's @HansbergRossi tomorrow. Great papers on the program, including young women economists and grad students!.
Reminder: The Fall 2022 Midwest Macro will be hosted by @SMUEconDept in Dallas on Nov 11-13. The submission deadline is one week away.
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Check out our Symposium on US Private Firms, financing, regulation and impact on aggregate macro- economy, organized by the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business bringing together academics, regulators and data providers, will be livestreamed:
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Results so far in the most important election of 2023 that will have global implications: .33 percent of ballots opened. Kılıçdaroğlu is in the lead with 47.71!.
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Had an amazing time at JacksonHole! Academics and policy makers' interactions were great! Excellent presentations by @GitaGopinath @Francesco_Bia and others point to key sources of inflation: fiscal stimulus and supply side-cost push shocks. We quantify how much each accounts for.
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Thank you for everyone's prayers, messages and interests in #TurkeySyriaEarthquake. You can make donations to FusunSayek Foundation below setup in the Hatay-Iskenderun region, on the ground, to help victims directly with immediate care and future rehabilitation/education needs.
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Thank you all for your messages and prayers #TurkeyEarthquake. This is a catastrophe beyond words. Many of you asked how can you help. Anything counts, you can donate the items listed here:
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Quantifying drivers of 2021-2023 inflation in the US is @AEAjournals : demand-amplified supply chain issues are important. We are now working on quantification for other countries through the global production network linkages.
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This was a great conference @IMFNews with timely papers on EM capital flows. I am honored to take part in the policy panel discussing current inflation, effects of strong dollar on EM and what EM can do.
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Please join!.
Call for Papers: WE_ARE_IN Macroeconomics and Finance - Basel - September 29-30, 2022 -
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Super excited for our conference on fragmentation and supply chains this week! @nberpubs @pol_antras @CBChileresearch @pogourinchas.
Next Wednesday March 1st and Thursday March 2nd the “International Fragmentation, Supply Chains, and Financial Frictions” conference will be held together with the @nberpubs. Check the program out at Don’t miss it!.
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Thrilled that I was part of a great panel on capital flows @IMFNews, discussing w/@GitaGopinath, @CLMannEcon, @SAReserveBank, @BancoCentralBR, and @cnbcKaren the role of policy credibility+strong macro to bring capital flows to EM, make it work for growth!.
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Looking forward to our Annual Conference at Central Bank of Chile! Covering all the key and super timely topics for EMs!.
Thrilled about our virtual @bcentralchile Annual Conference next week on EM Credibility, Investors Risk Perceptions & Capital Flows. 10 new papers, 2 keynotes by @carmenmreinhart & M. Obstfeld. Joint with @skalemliozcan. Hard to find a more relevant topic for EMEs these days!
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My dear friend Selva @BloombergHT Hayatta dogru yoldan yuruyup, adil olup, insanlari ezmeden ve haksizlik yapmadanda basarili olundugunu cocuklarina ogretmek isteyen anne-babalar icin mutlak seyir.
📢 Bir Hayat Hikayesi: Prof. Dr. Selva Demiralp. ❓ Küresel ekonominin merkezi FED'e giren ilk Türk olmayı nasıl başardı?.📝 Aşı eşitliği çalışmalarıyla dünya basınına nasıl damga vurdu?.🤔 Bir kadın iktisatçı olarak iş hayatında neler yaşadı?. #Profil ▶️
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Please join, this great conference starts tomorrow and will last for 2 days!.
Thrilled about our virtual @bcentralchile Annual Conference next week on EM Credibility, Investors Risk Perceptions & Capital Flows. 10 new papers, 2 keynotes by @carmenmreinhart & M. Obstfeld. Joint with @skalemliozcan. Hard to find a more relevant topic for EMEs these days!
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Our paper's summary @voxeu with @GitaGopinath @pierredeleo on emerging market monetary policy cyclicality, US monetary policy and risk premia leading to a short-rate disconnect for emerging markets.
Global risk perception challenges emerging economies' monetary policy. Gap between policy rates & short-term market rates reveals countercyclical measures may fall short for stimulus. @pierredeleo @UmdEcon @GitaGopinath @IMFNews @skalemliozcan @UofMaryland.
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Great piece on US/Europe inflation @TheEconomist @COdendahl on our research with Julian di Giovanni, and also @IvanWerning @guido_lorenzoni @VeronicaGuerri7, on the importance of demand and supply factors, structural shifts and differences in US vs Europe:
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Thank you so much, this is great service to all of us who are hiring in this field! @BrownEconomics All candidates in international finance and macro are amazing as also the ones in international trade! Everyone should hire in these fields given the extreme need to study and to.
📢As in previous years, I have put together the list of JMCs in International Finance (inspired by.@TradeDiversion's list in International Trade). Check out the candidates here, and let me know if any are missing: . #JMCs #EconTwitter
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Great conversation with @EliasPapaioann2 on COVID and Turkey and Emerging Markets.
One year on. how has #Turkey performed during the #COVID19 crisis? We invited @skalemliozcan – Neil Moskowitz Professor at @UofMaryland – to share her views. Watch here:
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Absolutely brilliant AEA/AFA luncheon address from @GitaGopinath; honored to be there; must reading for academia and policy world and for all the students in international macro!.
Just gave the AEA Joint luncheon address on “New Foundations for Macro Policy” Great to see old friends, including brilliant women @Susan_Athey, President of AEA, & @skalemliozcan.
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Here is an excellent short video at NBER by @pogourinchas describing our joint work with Veronika Penciakova and Nick Sander on COVID-19, SME failures and Fiscal Policy:
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