Trade Diversion (Jonathan Dingel)
@TradeDiversion
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Trade Diversion is a blog about trade & globalization by economist Jonathan Dingel.
Chicago
Joined November 2011
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Pinned Tweet
📣 Fresh "Market Size and Trade in Medical Services" at w/ new results:
- Lumpy capital equipment is one reason big regions are net exporters
- Population growth → growth in net exports
- Geographic remoteness explains US's steeper income-health gradient
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Now forthcoming in
@JPubEcon
: "How many jobs can be done at home?" with
@BrentNeiman
. Manuscript: Replication package: Brent and I wrote this paper entirely from our homes.
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Why do economists talk about "infinitely-lived" agents? Are they afraid to say "immortal"?
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A complete course in urban economics taught by the world's best is being offered online across 8 Thursdays this summer:
Advanced PhD students should apply to present their research in a September workshop:
#UEA
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Keeping an eye on this developing story…
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I have seen the phrase "I structurally estimate the model" in too many job-market papers this month.
JMCs, please read
@PhilHaile
: "Models, Measurement, and the Language of Empirical Economics"
At least graduate from confusion and abuse 201 to 202...
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I think I spot a confounding variable in Robert K.'s assessment of his
@Stata
software upgrade.
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I am excited to be visiting
@columbia_econ
for the fall 2023 semester.
PhD students: I will be teaching a class in trade and spatial economics. See .
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My PhD trade class starts next Monday. Course materials (very similar to previous years) are online at . We’re back in the classroom this fall.
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How many jobs can be done at home?
@BrentNeiman
& I just produced estimates for 86 economies, from 5% in Mozambique to 53% in Luxembourg. The striking pattern: working from home is less feasible in poorer places. Concords w/
@FernandoSaltiel
. Code & data:
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PhD students likely undervalue clear writing because (1) their syllabi list successful papers, which in part succeed because they are better written and (2) they aren't editing or refereeing, where the first goal is often "discern the paper's main message in under 15 minutes".
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Bhagwati Award and Lösch Prize
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8
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Thinking about an econ PhD? Alongside my
@ChicagoBooth
colleagues, I'm hiring a full-time RA to start next summer. Exploit the "common app" by Oct 12 to be considered by many of us: More about my workflow:
@predoc_org
@econ_ra
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Spatial JMCs: Each year, I compile a list of spatial JMPs (e.g., ). To make sure you're on my list (and to save me some work), please reply to this tweet with info in the following format:
Firstname Surname (School) - JMP title - homepageURL
#econtwitter
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Spatial JMCs: Each year, I compile a list of spatial-economics job-market papers. To make sure you're on my list (& save me some work), please reply with your info in the following format:
Firstname Surname (School) - JMP title - homepageURL
[Trade JMCs: reply to other tweet]
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Don't use Excel to handle your data.
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I'm coming to loathe the adjective "causal".
"Causal effect" is redundant. Do we discuss non-causal effects? No. Effects have causes.
"Causal evidence" is a misnomer. You provide "evidence of a causal link" not "causal evidence" of that link. The evidence itself isn't a cause.
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Spatial-economics JMCs: Each year, I compile a list of spatial JMPs (e.g., ). To make sure you're on my list (and to save me a little work), please reply to this tweet with info in the following format:
Firstname Surname (School) - JMP title - homepageURL
10
29
123
Spatial JMCs: Each year, I compile a list of spatial-economics job-market papers. To make sure you're on my list (& save me some work), please reply with your info in the following format:
Firstname Surname (School) - JMP title - homepageURL
[Trade JMCs: reply to other tweet]
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Too many economists report estimates to multiple decimal places in their abstracts. The welfare gains from the policy are 8.34%, really?
Editors should threaten to replace excessively "precise" estimates by confidence intervals.
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9
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Revising your PhD trade syllabus for the fall? Some of my blog posts address questions not explicitly tackled in journal articles. What's "exact hat algebra"? Do 18% or 35% of US manuf firms export? What's an "iceberg" commuting cost? Should I use Matlab or Julia? Answers...
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Spatial economics JMPs (2023-2024)
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Spatial economics JMPs (2022-2023)
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Trade JMPs (2021-2022)
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Trade JMPs (2020-2021)
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How Many Jobs Can be Done at Home?
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Now published in the
@JUrbanEcon
: "Cities, Lights, and Skills in Developing Economies" with Antonio Miscio and
@newyorkonomics
. Free to download for next 50 days:
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I've posted my annual lists of trade JMPs and spatial JMPs.
Thanks to those who made my life easier. 17 (of 37) JMCs replied to my trade tweet and 33 (of 58) JMCs replied to my spatial tweet.
Rules of origin are hot this year: three JMPs on the subject!
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Spatial economics JMPs (2021-2022)
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Paper on night-lights-based metropolitan definitions now forthcoming at JUE: . We've posted R code so that you can apply our algorithm to any country (for which you possess a shape file): . Thanks to
@dylanomics
for lots of coding.
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103
Your monthly reminder to read "'Structural vs. Reduced Form': Language, Confusion, and Models in Empirical Economics" by
@PhilHaile
.
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8
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Since I've seen the phrase too many times recently, this is your annual reminder to not use the phrase "structurally estimate".
See
@PhilHaile
on "Confusion and Abuse of Terminology 201":
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"The AEA is implementing a new Data Legality Policy, effective for manuscripts first submitted after July 1, 2023. The Policy states all data used in papers published in the Association’s journals should be legally acquired."
Who will submit June 30?!
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13
101
Trade JMCs: Each year, I compile a list of international-trade job-market papers. To make sure you're on my list (& save me some work), please reply with your info in the following format:
Firstname Surname (School) - JMP title - homepageURL
[Spatial JMCs: reply to other tweet]
26
43
104
Updated paper: "Spatial Economics for Granular Settings" w/
@FelixTintelnot
. Urban economists using "exact hat algebra", beware: you risk severe overfitting problems. Monte Carlo for NYC: 100x more obs needed. Thanks to many for helpful feedback recently.
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22
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Added to my reading list: "Non-CES Aggregators: A Guided Tour" by Kiminori Matsuyama.
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Manski: "Have you ever heard anyone say they failed a robustness check? No. In all the seminars, everyone passes their robustness tests. I think that is prima facie evidence that they are not pushing hard enough."
Here is a wonderful interview of Prof. Manski by Elie Tamer, just published in Econometric Theory:
I thoroughly enjoyed reading it; highly recommended. Covers Manski's work on bounds, peer effects & expectations (but sadly, nothing on prediction markets)
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Trade JMCs: Each year, I compile a list of international-trade job-market papers. To make sure you're on my list (& save me some work), please reply with your info in the following format:
Firstname Surname (School) - JMP title - homepageURL
[Spatial JMCs: reply to other tweet]
11
40
97
I read some JMPs. A few writing tips for all students:
- Define acronyms when first used
- Search your PDF for "??" to spot broken TeX refs
- Don't put apostrophes in decades ("the 1990s")
- The phrase "causally estimate" is incoherent
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Why I encourage econ PhD students to learn Julia
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I'm teaching a PhD class in international trade again this autumn. I've posted almost all of the course material (not the homework solutions) to GitHub: Looking forward to meeting another cohort of bright
@UChi_Economics
students.
3
17
90
🚨 Spatial Economics for Granular Settings (2023) w/
@FelixTintelnot
🚨
🆕 insights for users of quantitative spatial models:
- distinguishing exact hat algebra from calibration
- introducing convenient data-smoothing procedures
- quantifying uncertainty due to idiosyncrasies
🧵
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Spatial economics JMPs (2020-2021)
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AER, Econometrica, and JPE allow authors to post the published PDF on their personal websites. QJE and REStud (with
@OUPEconomics
) don't let you host the PDF but provide a free-access link to the content on their site. Top-five journals are accessible if authors share.
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PhD students working on international economics: You should apply to visit
@DartmouthEcon
for a month/quarter/semester at . Who else will pay you money to get feedback on your JMP from an awesome set of trade economists? Deadline is end of March.
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New working paper w/
@GottliebEcon
, Lozinski & Mourot:
"Market Size and Trade in Medical Services"
If you think medical services are non-tradable, buckle up! Lots of trade between US regions: 22% of care is physicians treating patients from another region.
1/6
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.
@ReddingEcon
's "The Transition to PhD Research" guide for PhD students looks very helpful:
He endorses
@CalNewport2
's book Deep Work. I read Cal's "Digital Minimalism" and have been trying to do "time blocking" more often.
1
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Neat! Conference on Urban
and Regional Economics : "the conference will use a novel format to maximize value to participants in the online environment." Ten-minute opening statement, one-hour discussion. Participants have to read the papers. Due Oct 2.
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Incredible opportunity for PhD students studying trade: the
@Dartmouth
International Economics Ph.D. Fellowship pays you to get valuable feedback from Dartmouth's small army of trade economists. Apply by end of March:
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Upcoming event celebrating the wonderful
@PeterNeary001
: "The School of Economics at University College Dublin
@EconomicsUCD
will celebrate the career and contributions of Peter Neary with a special event on 29 April 2021."
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Arnaud Costinot (MIT) is now a coeditor at American Economic Review:
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"When should I tweet my research? Evidence from 500
@nberpubs
paper tweets"
Abstract: We assume the NBER randomly assigns papers to tweet times. Based on 500 tweets, try Tuesday around 1700 hours GMT, maybe.
#econtwitter
#endogenousresponses
#practicingtweepy
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The rapid rise of spatial economics among JMCs
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Conference aimed at young trade economists (PhD students and postdocs) w/ keynotes by
@MeredithCrowle1
and
@dix_rafael
organized by
@UniofNottingham
and
@cepr_org
:
Conference is May 6-8. Submission deadline is Feb 26.
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Costas Arkolakis is teaching a course called "The Economics of Space": Syllabus looks great: maps, models, and GIS
0
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Trade JMCs: Each year, I compile a list of trade JMPs (e.g., ). To make sure you're on my list (and to save me a little work), please reply to this tweet with info in the following format:
Firstname Surname (School) - JMP title - homepageURL
#econtwitter
9
36
69
NBER SI program for Urban Economics is available: 13 papers in one day may be a bit much.
Looking forward to
@Schoefer_B
and
@zivoren
on "Productivity, Place, and Plants: Revisiting the Measurement" based what they told me about the project.
4
14
65
Proud of our
@uchicago
trade-working-group students who were on the job market this year. A very strong start to their promising careers.
@ShimYounghun
:
@IMFNews
@AgusGutierrez92
:
@WIeconomics
@LeviGCrews
:
@UCLA
1
3
69
New note, joint with
@BrentNeiman
:
Q: "How Many Jobs Can be Done at Home?"
A: 34% of US jobs can plausibly be performed at home.
@BeckerFriedman
white paper: Replication package:
#EconTwitter
#COVID19
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Spatial Economics for Granular Settings
0
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65
Urban economics syllabi: Don Davis (), Matt Turner (), Nate Baum-Snow ()
2
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61
NEW: Location exposure indices: Among smartphones that pinged in a given county today, what share of those devices pinged in another county at least once during the previous 14 days? Look at the
#EscapeFromNewYork
& shutdown. Get all the data:
#econtwitter
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Over the last couple months, the question "What major advances are you making in economic science today?" has popped into my head a number of times. A powerful reminder to stay focused, daily.
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I wrote a shell script that renames NBER WP downloads to "Author - Title (NBER Year).pdf". (I assume your downloads folder doesn't contain other files named "w2[0-9]*.pdf")
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If you study local economic outcomes in Brazil, China, or India, you should consider using metropolitan areas: . We produced these metro definitions using satellite images of lights at night to study skill-biased agglomeration:
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12
59
7 hours and 45 minutes of urban economics presentations starting at 9:30am ET tomorrow morning. It's the
#NBERSI
Urban Economics meeting. Tomorrow is just the warm up for 8 hours straight on Friday.
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Skimming the webpages of job-market candidates in trade () and spatial () is humbling. So many economists working on neat topics. It's impossible for one to work on more than a small sliver of the interesting research questions.
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Christina Patterson,
@JoeVavra
& I think a simple fact deserves more attention: "Childcare obligations will constrain many workers when reopening the US economy".
If phase 1 is workers & phase 2 is schools, 50m workers must consider childcare.
#econtwitter
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Trade JMPs (2023-2024)
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NBER Summer Institute meeting of International Trade & Investment starts now. Runs through Thursday. On YouTube: Program:
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16
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A reminder about the definition of trade diversion
2
11
59
For almost a decade, Alan Deardorff (
@umichECON
) has been linking to trade-related newspaper stories on a close-to-daily basis. I only discovered this webpage today:
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27
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Unequal opportunities to work from home in one graph. In our recent note,
@BrentNeiman
and I reported that occupations that can be performed at home have higher average wages. Besart Avdiu and
@Gaurav__Nayyar
's visualization for
@BrookingsInst
makes the inequality much clearer:
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27
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Trade JMPs (2022-2023)
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Classifying industries as traded or non-traded
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13
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Peter Neary was a great economist and a great human being. A role model for all. He'll be deeply missed.
This recent conference celebrated Peter's contributions:
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.
@JuliaLanguage
has become "the one that scientists would turn to when tackling large-scale numerical problems." Multiple dispatch is "neither object oriented nor functional". Has "the benefit of having been designed in the age of Unicode" via
@merubhanot
0
10
55
Trade JMCs: Each year, I compile a list of trade JMPs (e.g., ). To make sure you're on my list (and to save me a little work), please reply to this tweet with info in the following format:
Firstname Surname (School) - JMP title - homepageURL
#econtwitter
9
25
53
I saw the phrase "structurally estimates" used a couple times in different places last week. But the adjective "structural" should have been used to describe the estimand, not the estimator.
From
@PhilHaile
:
3
5
53
Tomorrow, I'll present "How Many Jobs Can be Done at Home?" at a
@cepr_org
@IHEID
online seminar . 13:00 London, 14:00 Brussels, 7am Chicago. Moderated by Cédric Tille. This research is joint with
@BrentNeiman
.
2
18
54
I'll be introducing "Spatial Economics for Granular Settings" (w/
@FelixTintelnot
) for discussion at the 12th Annual Conference on Urban and Regional Economics (CURE). Novel format: you can submit questions about our paper (and others) beforehand at
2
5
54
Andrews, Gentzkow, and Shapiro () echo Phil Haile () in telling people to use the word "identification" correctly.
I bet referees will start quoting these recommendations in reports.
1
11
52
Thought experiments that exact hat algebra can and cannot compute
5
7
53
I'm excited to present "Spatial Economics for Granular Settings" (w/
@FelixTintelnot
) at the
@nberpubs
International Trade and Investment meeting this Saturday, 4:15pm ET. Full agenda at ; watch live via YouTube at
0
4
53
A list of research resources that I regularly recommend to PhD students
2
19
51
ICYMI: I have posted lists of job-market candidates working in international trade () and spatial economics ().
If I missed you (or your friends), please comment on the blog posts and I'll update them.
1
12
46
Want to research social distancing? We've posted a daily county-level device exposure index (DEX) derived from
@placeiq
data.
By March 27, the DEX was 1/3 its Feb 14 level. Metros with more jobs that can be done at home had larger reductions in exposure.
1
12
49
"Do visas hinder international trade in goods?" (JDE 2019) by
@CamiloUmanaD
. By Spanish request, Ecuadorian and Bolivian nationals lost visa-free access to the Schengen Area in 2003/2006. This considerably reduced their exports to Schengen members.
0
7
47
Apply to be a
@ChicagoBooth
research professional working with me or one of my colleagues. We start reviewing applications on Monday.
@econ_ra
2
19
51
In 2019, I noted “the rapid rise of spatial economics among JMCs” (). The trend continues. Today
@tylercowen
says “interest in economic history continues to grow, and the same is true for urban, regional, and health care economics”.
1
4
51
Update: A BIG thank you to Megan Fasules for flagging a coding error. Correcting our mistake makes the share of U.S. jobs that can be done at home 37% (up from 34%). Nearly all cities & industries increase a few pp. Updated paper & code at .
#openscience
0
4
50
Last night, Biden raised using foreign policy to alter the trajectory of Amazonian deforestation. w/ Rodrigo Adao &
@arthurbraganca7
, we're working on those counterfactual Qs: Has foreign demand affected deforestation in Brazil? Can trade policy shape the Amazon forest's future?
1
1
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#ASSA2021
session on Applied Spatial Economics on Tuesday morning:
@melaniemorten
on Dar es Salaam BRT,
@FelixTintelnot
on spatial economics for granular settings,
@ReddingEcon
on repeal of the Corn Laws & Matt Turner on Equilibrium Particulate Exposure.
0
9
48
Trade conference for PhD students and postdoctoral researchers by
@UoN_GEP
and
@cepr_org
on 28-30 April: . Submission deadline is January 30.
Keynotes by
@Tfpiasecki
and Dávid Nagy.
0
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PhD students, are you going to be on the job market in 12 months? Read the
@cawley_john
guide now:
The process will be much less intimidating if you see the big picture from the beginning rather than learning about the market at the last minute.
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Writing clearly is valuable, and most economists underinvest in writing well. Readers will understand your economics better if you write better.
I may add a writing assignment to my PhD syllabus.
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42
I doubt that the production of trade economists peaked in 2009. Young trade economists, please join Alan Deardorff's Family Tree of Trade Economists. Add yourself following Alan's instructions at the bottom of .
(I'm Alan's grandstudent via
@deweinstein
.)
0
13
44
This is a potentially confusing title for an economics paper.
@RevEconStud
Understanding the causes and consequences of the opioid crisis, and intended and unintended policy impacts, using innovative frameworks, causal methods and rich data, from
@JCMecon
, Justine Mallatt,
@christopherruhm
, and
@KosaliSimon
0
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43
2
0
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My PhD class on international trade starts on Monday morning. You can follow along at .
@UChi_Economics
0
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44