secretlyaninja Profile
secretlyaninja

@secretlyaninja

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Twitting some of my stock trades or ideas in semi-real-time to keep myself accountable. Not investment advice. Do your own due diligence.

Secret ninja school
Joined August 2012
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@secretlyaninja
secretlyaninja
2 days
$VTY: Bloomberg Opinion making the case that lower mortgage rates and robust UK labor market should drive higher demand for homes and rising housing prices.
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@secretlyaninja
secretlyaninja
3 days
@alvarogomezolea @puppyeh1 Here is $MON.V announcement.
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@secretlyaninja
secretlyaninja
3 days
@puppyeh1 Sounds like these guys picked up your $MON.V shares
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@secretlyaninja
secretlyaninja
8 days
@Cash_Flow_Cap At 9x earnings and 11.5% FCF yield, $CI can miss their growth target and still be a good investment. If they can get close to their target, it'll be a great investment.
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@secretlyaninja
secretlyaninja
9 days
The big risk is that $OCSL BV continues to erode due to defaults. That's always a risk with BDCs. It's mitigated by the fact that my cost is at a big discount to BV, Oaktree has shown confidence with its $100 MM purchase at BV, and new incentive fee structure.
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@secretlyaninja
secretlyaninja
11 days
Another banger by @AndrewRangeley with @1MainCapital on $IWG. Highlights: 1. $IWG at 7x '25 FCF which is consistent with my napkin math of 14% FCF yield 2. On track for $1 bil EBITDA by '28 (from ~$500 MM) 3. Builder owner survey show high satisfaction
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@secretlyaninja
secretlyaninja
11 days
Risk 3: $CI does a dumb acquisition. My thesis is predicated on mgmt using $45 bil of FCF for capital return over the next 5 yrs. If the CEO goes on empire building adventure, I'm out. $CI already tried to buy $HUM in '24 before talks fizzled.
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