scuttleblurb
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$schw some thoughts on charles schwab (no paywall)
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“a previously unknown unknown has now become a known unknown, and consequently is now already factored into investor risk appetite and market positioning...”
🔥🔥
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One of the toughest things about investing today is balancing an appreciation for the non-linear effects of scale (especially internet-enabled scale) and the reality that even great companies can be mediocre investments at certain prices.
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focusing on whether you are up or down on a position means anchoring on the past. it distracts from the job of making the best possible decision in the present.
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scuttleblurb biz update (no paywall):
thanks for all your friendship and support this year
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$CPRT, $KAR taking the paywall off this Copart post from a few months ago.
(as usual, other free posts can be found here:)
thanks for all the support. you guys are the best
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young analysts - heads up, Windancer is holding a stock pitch competition w meaningful $ for the winner ($20k + 10% performance fees on a $5mn co-invest)...if interested, email memos/models to coinvest
@windancerholdings
.com by nov. 15
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$schw quick follow-up on charles schwab
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often variant conviction > variant view. “i also agree, only more so” won’t win ira sohn but can make all the difference in the world
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some scuttleblurb stats. thanks for the good year you guys...have a wonderful ‘21 👊
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recent comments from $bkng
"we are really excited about this social media because we are now seeing that the effectiveness of social media platforms in terms of performance marketing spend has suddenly seen kind of a leapfrog change. Why? Because we see that the effectiveness of
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last post of the year. $v and $ma ($)
also, some biz stats for 2022. scuttleblurb looking like a non-gaap rule of 40 covid stock. even so, it's a small miracle that i’m still able to write this blog after 6 years. thx for all your support!🙏
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2019 / 2023. same routine different scenery. lot more grey hair
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in this episode,
@aaronjsallen
and i speak with
@BluegrassCap
about standards, ratings, and status. enjoy!
$mco $it $yelp $ea $nlsn $fb $goog $trip
post re: $mco from a while back (no paywall)
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excited to have
@BluegrassCap
on the pod next week.
we’ll be talking about standards, ratings systems, trust, and that sort of thing. should be good.
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scuttleblurb biz update (2021)
what an insane year. thanks for your support and have a great holiday!
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building materials: part 1 (paywall)
$bldr, $bcc, $bxc, $lpx, $jhx, $aep.v
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final scuttleblurb post of 2020.
$fvrr, $upwk freelance marketplaces (paywall)
i am lucky to have this community. thanks for all your support this year.
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Hi everyone, I am terminating the monthly subscription option for now. Quarterly subscriptions ($100 every 3 months) are still available on the Wordpress version of the site. For writers who offer frequent commentary on time sensitive news flow, offering monthly subscriptions
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"expect the full year 2023 operating expenses to increase at the lower end of the mid-single-digit range...that is above our prior forecast of low single-digit percent growth or the higher end of low single-digit percent growth."
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$fis $fisv $gpn $sq $adyen On payment processors, distribution, and technology (paywall)
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Part 4
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the subtext to “i’m not smart enough to own banks” is “you guys are idiots for owning banks”
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@jfc_3_
@MichaelKitces
i was running low on time/savings when
@LibertyRPF
@BluegrassCap
and
@IntrinsicInv
discovered my obscure little blog and shared it on twitter 2 years ago. since then, scuttleblurb has turned into a nice lifestyle biz. nearly all my subs can be traced back to fintwit
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in this episode,
@aaronjsallen
and i discuss fat tail investing, never selling, $fergy, and $wso
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first scuttleblurb podcast episode now on itunes
my co-host
@aaronjsallen
(of merion road capital) and i blaze through: $bxc $zg $wizz $prmw
we recorded a few weeks ago. it’s a bit rough. i’m thinking these will get better with practice
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a tour through payments: pt. 2 (adyen, fis, fisv, gpn) (paywall)
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i did a solo podcast on $algn and $sdc. here's a transcript:
you can also find this ep on spotify
also check out the business breakdowns episode that dropped earlier this morning. it's really good. enjoy!
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when drawing lessons bt nature and investing, be sure to cherry pick behaviors in nature that confirm concepts you already like and believe and then make it seem like nature taught you those things.
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it’s sort of obnoxious when someone uses an analogy that is harder to understand than the thing the analogy is supposed to clarify. like don’t use quantum mechanics to explain investing
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i was on the ropes last year. w/o this community - esp. the early support of
@LibertyRPF
,
@BluegrassCap
,
@IntrinsicInv
,
@tmcmill81
, and
@Magyer
- my little blog enterprise would be toast. scuttleblurb was built on fintwit. thank you.
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heads up - on aug. 7 i'm jacking up the price. existing subs will be grandfathered in at current rates. thanks everyone for your support 🙌
annual: $210 -> $240
monthly: $25 -> $30
quarterly: $70 -> $80
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took the paywall off this post from a year ago. enjoy
class 1 freight rails: part 3 – Hunter Harrison, PSR, and investment implications $cp $cnr $csx $nsc $unp $bnsf
h/t
@KoyfinCharts
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took the paywall off this $TRUP post, if you care to read. potentially huge market, not sold on the moat.
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@patrick_oshag
$mco, $spgi, $fico industry benchmarks / standards
$vrsk (iso biz), $googl, $tru, $efx data "flywheels" / pooling
$eqix, $v, $ma infrastructure / network fx
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going to publish parts 2 & 3 of the class 1 rails series at the same time...it's a beast, will take a bit longer than usual...thx for your patience 🙏
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taking the paywall off this $iac / $mgm post from last sept.
$apo write up coming next week
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“i learned very early the difference between knowing the name of something and knowing something”.
- R. Feynman
descriptions are not explanations. moats emerge from a process, they don’t inhere in biz models. “capital light” is not a moat. “recur rev” is a symptom, not a cause
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the idea is to buy mispriced stocks, not great companies. sometimes these intersect, but they don’t have to.
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loving this 3-part series from
@NonGaap
on corporate governance "dark arts"...some interesting stuff i never considered or bothered to look for
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some recent posts (paywall):
$TDG – TransDigm: Niches get riches
$TTD – The Trade Desk: A gorilla in ad tech?
$BUR – Burford Capital: Part 1 & Part 2
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episode 7:
@aaronjsallen
and i chat with
@AndrewRangeley
about media companies
$nflx $cbs $dis $sbgi $wwe
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re: role of software in b2b payments “a payment is not born a payment. it’s born an invoice and then it becomes a payment at the end of a workflow”
@mineraltree
cfo
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scuttleblurbing in okinawa. trying my damnedest to avoid retreading familiar ground on $v and $ma
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@marketplunger1
length is not synonymous w fluff. even if a thesis boils down to just 2-3 things, those things can take time to thoroughly unpack. meanwhile, writing a 1 paragraph pitch that overlooks risks and nuance is trivial. gotta assess case by case. have seen amazing long writeups,
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someone shoot some holes in this. $mjco is pulling an $adbe, shifting more of its biz to cloud. they are a clear laggard to $gwre and get 2/3 of revenue from low-margin services (thread).
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may be the best pretend finance line from a show ever: “get me nassim taleb. i’ve gotta make sure this thing is a real black swan event”
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$evbg looks interesting. ~no viable competition in a niche space, selling a critical product, clear ramp to higher avg. deal sizes as they include more functionality onto the platform. 110% net rev ret, terrific unit economics, big white space. future data moat? not there yet.
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Old Dominion and less-than-truckload
$odfl, $xpo, $fdx, $saia, $yell, $arcb
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i sometimes think that mental models are too liberally applied and that the commingling of concepts seems more profound than it actually is. maybe a bee’s mating rituals have nothing to teach us about trading stocks. maybe instead learn about actual businesses and find cxns there
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recent posts (paywall)
$TTD [Chr. Hansen, Novozymes] all the small things (plus some quick thoughts on The Trade Desk)
$WSO, $POOL thoughts on Watsco and some businesses like it
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@_inpractise
classic flywheel effect. the more companies that use the term to describe their businesses, the more investors use it in their pitches, which in turn causes more companies to describe their businesses as flywheels
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new $xpel ppf bull case just dropped
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launching a substack. same stuff as scuttleblurb classic but w a monthly $25 option (go for annual 😉). if you're already a sub no need to do anything - i'm keeping both versions. scuttleblurb is a blog that analyzes co's through an investing lens
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May posts (paywall):
FICO and the Consumer Credit Bureaus: Part 1
FICO and the Consumer Credit Bureaus: Part 2
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recent posts on market infrastructure (paywall):
$fds, $lse part 1
$spgi, $mco part 2
$mktx, $tw part 3
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“There may even be a phenomenon like Dunning-Kruger at work, where the most conventional-minded people are confident that they're independent-minded, while the genuinely independent-minded worry they might not be independent-minded enough”
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cobra kai is surprisingly good. was expecting just a modern version of kk, but no. plot lines are nuanced. grown ass men consumed by childhood karate is a flimsy premise but by poking fun at itself, the show beats us to the punch so it doesn’t really matter
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recent posts (paywall):
$ICE $NDAQ $CME $CBOE exchange operators: fragmentation and new points of differentiation
$WDAY $CDAY $PAYC Workday and competitive dynamics in hcm
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recent posts (paywall):
$adsk $ptc simulation, CAD, and PLM: part 2
$cvna fat tail investing
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also my go-to response when pple offer reasonable constructive criticism on my stock picks 🔥🔥
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one tell tale sign of a terrible movie is when the characters bluntly remind each other of who they are for the audience’s benefit, ie, “as the director of the cia, i can assure you that...”
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the saddest part about this joint is that the light is on motion sensor, so it turns off every 10mins and i have to wave my hands in the air to turn it back on
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in this episode,
@aaronjsallen
and i discuss $chwy and $zo1 (zooplus). enjoy!
scuttleblurb post from a few years back (paywall)
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june posts (paywall):
no/low code evolution
$SMAR $PEGA $APPN
barriers to scale; moats vs. revenue models
Admiral, $PGR
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