Sammy J
@sammyj_19
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VP Corp Dev @ C21 / #MSOgang Founding Member & Chief Data Officer / #cannabis comp table nerd
Joined December 2013
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Proud of this achievement, especially given all the industry headwinds. To be able have no financed debt after paying off $30M principle, ~ the size of our current MC, with 15Qs of +FCF, without the need for a capital raise in 4yrs, is certainly a first for a cannabis pubco:
C21 Investments Announces Full Repayment of $30 Million Senior Secured Note
Debt Retirement Eliminates $6 Million in Annual Principal Repayment Obligation
$CXXI $CXXIF
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Since the beginning of 2021, the three largest 🇺🇸
#cannabis
companies, Curaleaf, Trulieve, and Green Thumb, have combined to pay $785 million in Income Taxes, yet the govt does not protect their employees by allowing them to bank like every other industry.
It's time,
@SenSchumer
.
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S3 ✅️
A3 ✅️
SAFE ✅️
Decriminalize/Justice ✅️
Test & Regulate ✅️
Wow. 🤯
As I have previously stated, I believe it is time to end needless arrests and incarcerations of adults for small amounts of marijuana for personal use. We must also implement smart regulations, while providing access for adults, to safe, tested product. As a Floridian, I will be
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OpEd out this evening from the NAACP:
"Without SAFE Banking, the forward-looking state equity programs designed to support Black and brown entrepreneurs are largely futile."
Cc:
@SenSchumer
@SenBooker
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Public NA
#Cannabis
: 🇺🇸vs.🇨🇦 Market Opportunity:
-2020 🇺🇸&🇨🇦Cannabis Sales
-2030 Projected Markets
-Big 5 $MSOS / LPs Market Cap
-Last Q Big 5 Cannabis Sales Annualized
-Last Q Big 5 aEBITDA Annualized
-2022 Big 5 EV/Revenue
-2022 Big 5 EV/EBITDA
cc:
@todd_harrison
@timseymour
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Big news today on the ongoing lawsuit around the FOIA redaction of the HHS letter to the DEA:
Thanks to Matt Zorn &
@admindotlaw
for their relentless pursuit of this disclosure:
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Big news for 🇺🇸
#cannabis
with potentially very positive implications for legal Operators:
Statehouse (formerly Harborside) just had its legacy IRS 280E bill reduced from $22.1M to $5.8M with payment schedule of only $50k per month for the next 116 months:
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1. Revised Cannabis Sales Chart: Top 36 Public Companies in revenue, with minimum $40M CAD ($30M USD) annualized last reported quarter.
Added Gross Margins & adjusted EBITDA columns.
Sorted by adjusted Operating Income.
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1/ Perhaps flying under the radar today is this article on Dem lawmakers urging the Treasury / FinCEN for updated guidance on legal cannabis businesses.
As we know, an update would be triggered in the event of SAFE(R)'s passing, but is now being requested irrespective of reform:
Democratic lawmakers are urging the Treasury Department to revise “out-of-date guidance” related to state-legal marijuana businesses and the Bank Secrecy Act.
@BrendanPedersen
with the letter they wrote to Treasury officials:
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"...first of all, medical marijuana has been amazing. I’ve had friends and I’ve had others and doctors telling me that it’s been absolutely amazing, the medical marijuana" -
@realDonaldTrump
$MSOS
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@natsfert
@yongecity
Assuming an interception on the hail mary, from this day forward,
@SenSchumer
,
@SenBooker
, &
@SenSherrodBrown
should be invoiced for every robbery of a legal cannabis store, as well as funeral expenses should there be any further tragedies.
A $25B legal cash industry is insanity.
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For all that question where the HHS rescheduling recommendation landed due to it being redacted, here is a member of Congress stating today in his letter to the DEA that it was indeed Schedule III: 👀
🚨BIG NEWS:
@DEAHQ
has FINALLY begun its review on softening federal
#marijuana
regulation.
#Cannabis
shouldn't be a Schedule 1 drug—more like Schedule 420. I've pressed the DEA on this for years (most recently in July, QT'd 👇) & I'm weighing back in today. Full letter here:
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Update: $MSOS short interest increased +22% to record biweekly levels for the start of '24 at 21.3M shares:
Shoutout to
@Th1902D
for the heads up
Update: $MSOS short interest increased 6% to 17.5M for the final biweekly '23 update:
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FWIW, most recent $MSOS short interest at 16.5M shares, still floating near its all-time high short interest:
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1/ The Impact of 280E: How Schedule III Affects The Bottom Line:
This 🧵 will attempt to illustrate 280E tax overage for cannabis vs. standard corporate tax.
Applied is a hypothetical lens on the past 3yrs to show the impact on profitability for 🇺🇸 $MSOS.
Ch.1: $GTII / $GTBIF:
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Remarkable line of questioning here highlighting the incongruence of federal/state law as well as the absurdity of Schedule 1 classification:
BREAKING: DEA Administrator Milgram Commits to Pushing
@HHSgov
to Get A Schedule 1 Marijuana Determination 👇
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1. Here's the updated chart, w 6 new cos., $VFF, $LABS, $NRTH, $HVT, $META, & $CLIQ. Also, added a rank change column.
$CXXI $MJAR $TGIF $PLTH $TRUL $SNN $MMEN $PLUS $CNNX $TRST $HIP $FIRE $OH $IAN $CWEB $OGI $CURA $APHA $HEXO $GTII $ACRG $HARV $CL $GGB $ACB $WEED $TLRY $CRON
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$BTC $68.8k to $34.3k since Nov. 10th. -50% in 10 wks & $1T wiped out in crypto.
Arguable store of value/inflation hedge/intrinsic value.
All🇺🇸
#cannabis
now $30B valuation for $100B CPG sales starting to normalize/migrate from illicit.
Markets can get it wrong until they don't.
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👀 SAFE(R) co-sponsor GOP Senator to
@donmurphy12a
:
" You'll be happy... Just be patient"
#SAFEBanking
co-sponsor: “You’ll be happy, just be patient.”
A swing and a miss from SAM and usual suspects Prohibition Pete(s). And On Location with
@mpadvisorshares
. Have a great weekend Twitter Friends.
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Final tally on what is likely the best day for $MSOS's underlying basket in 🇨🇦 on a 🇺🇸holiday:
Intrinsic Value = $8.81 (closed Fri. $8.20)
US$23M notional traded
9 underlyings up double digits:
@ShardiB2
Instrinsic value of $MSOS's basket is currently trading in 🇨🇦 @ $8.72 (closed Fri. $8.20/$8.28 AHs) on US$17M notional traded.
So, if that carries over to tomorrow, then it would indeed equate to ~+13% on $MSOX.
This doesn't even factor potential buying stateside or any inflows.
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"President Joe Biden ordered a review of federal marijuana policy in October 2022, and a formal decision from the DEA is expected soon, potentially in the coming weeks, according to two people with knowledge of plans." -
@NBCNews
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1. Public 🇺🇸Cannabis Operators Peer Comp Table:
Cash Flow from Operations (trailing twelve months)
$VRNOF $GTBIF $TCNNF $TRSSF $CRLBF $MRMD $CXXIF $AYRWF $TLLTF $CNTMF $VEXTF $JUSHF $PLNHF $HBORF $SHWZ $FFNTF $SLGWF $LOWLF $GAEGF $FLOOF $GDNSF $HRVSF $CCHWF $ACRHF $RWBYF $CURLF
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1. Updated Cannabis Sales Chart: Top 36 Revenue Generating Public Companies, with a minimum $40M CAD ($30M USD) Annualized Cannabis Sales as of Last Reported Quarter.
Includes Gross Margins, adjusted EBITDA, & sorted by adjusted Operating Income.
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👀On 🇺🇸cannabis:
Dr. Ebeigbe (DEA) "...we're in the process of writing that recommendation."
Interviewer: "Does the public comment period play at all in this?"
Dr. Ebeigbe [smiling]: "That is an unknown right now. That is an absolute unknown right now."
H/T
@DTRTcannabis
🙏
🎙️ WATCH
#DEACampus
podcast Prevention Profiles: Take Five! w/ guest Dr. Buki Ebeigbe, a DEA Diversion Control Division pharmacologist. Discover insights into the Controlled Substances Act, common misperceptions, and her journey into DEA.
Tune in now:
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"As President, I will...decriminalize marijuana and automatically expunge prior marijuana convictions. I'm Joe Biden and that's my commitment to you..."
One year later...
Tick tock,
@JoeBiden
.
Cc:
@SenWarren
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1 in every ~1000 Americans is a legal
#cannabis
employee - one of the fastest growing 🇺🇸industries. Yet, many are denied access to bank accounts, loans, insurance... Their safety is at risk while handling $20B+ in cash transacted this year at legal dispensaries.
@RepPerlmutter
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Noteworthy out of today's Senate session on fentanyl that cannabis was omitted from the chart on federal mandatory mininum sentencing for Schedule I&II drugs:
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As happy as I am for our industry/investors on this monumental news, on a personal level this 👇 is remarkable , as someone who suffers greatly from permanent neuropathic pain/spinal injury from getting hit on the hwy yrs ago & needing narcotics to get out of bed.
Gamechanger.
you know, i think this is really more than most honest marijuana legalization advocates would have hoped for: HHS includes what the National Academies found way back in 2017: pretty serious evidence for cannabis's efficacy in pain management
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Anybody know of an industry right now with the potential to infuse $billions in deposits into the federal banking industry?? Asking for a friend...
#SAFEBanking
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Missing the news in Jamaica but congrats everyone. FWIW, same thing happened when I was on family vacation with HHS in August. I need to vacation more clearly.
Also, reminder, not all benefit from S3 the same on OCF.
Eg. $CXXIF 275% effective tax rate whereas some don't book 280E
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Wow GTI...
@Bkov9
just throwing it down.
Cannabis bellwether/best-in-class just raised the bar, yet again.
Imagine what these numbers/beats can look like when 280E falls off, cost of capital recedes, and canna pubcos can go on offense without both hands tied behind their back.
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1. Public 🇺🇸/🇨🇦 Cannabis Operators Peer Comp Table:
TTM Cash Flow & YTD Share Price Performance
Includes all 16
#potstocks
in NYSE-listed $MSOS:
$TCNNF $GTBIF $AYRWF $CXXIF $PLNHF $TRSSF $VEXTF $VREOF $JUSHF $CURLF $FFNTF $INDXF $CRLBF $CCHWF $HRVSF $ACRHF
$VFF $CGC $ACB etc.
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👀Update: $MSOS short interest has increased +10.5% to another record biweekly level of 23.6M shares as of Jan. 31st:
Update: $MSOS short interest increased +22% to record biweekly levels for the start of '24 at 21.3M shares:
Shoutout to
@Th1902D
for the heads up
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1. My two cent rant:
Today is the end of tax loss selling for
#potstocks
. If one is to consider investing in the sector on the potential of a bottom here like last Dec. 27/28th, it's time to consider who actually runs a viable business currently. (cont'd
@AllStreetsWolf
's point).
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If you want a taste of the liquidity difference for 🇺🇸Operators once uplisted:
$TLRY has traded over $200M... Since 4pm alone.
Approaching $1B on the day
$SNDL has traded 75M shares... Since 4pm alone.
350M+ volume on the day
Or a good year for some MSOS on the CSE.
One day.
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1/ Random thoughts:
Like I've stated for some time, you'll now see why $MSOS is the engine of the sector
Everyone that cried at the ETF should now thank their lucky stars for its inflows / arb
Down to 10-15 investible cos. at most, so capital/Inflows have fewer places to go
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Wow, US$8M notional traded now for the Canadian listings of the $MSOS 🇺🇸 underlying basket, which never happens on 🇺🇸holidays.
To put into perspective, there are days when that is the total notional with the 🇺🇸markets open.
IMO, this isn't just 🇨🇦retail:
FWIW, $3.5M notional traded opening 30min vs. <$500k the entire day on 🇺🇸Thanksgiving.
Still peanuts but a relative win.
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The CBO scored/published SAFE Banking yesterday. Remains to be seen if this practical step is an indication they're finally ready to move on this bill.
As we all know by now, safe harbor for financial institutions remains a massive hurdle for our $MSOS sector:
h/t
@MangoneDavid
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As we breach noon, US$12M notional now traded in $MSOS's underlying basket for their Canadian listings:
Wow, US$8M notional traded now for the Canadian listings of the $MSOS 🇺🇸 underlying basket, which never happens on 🇺🇸holidays.
To put into perspective, there are days when that is the total notional with the 🇺🇸markets open.
IMO, this isn't just 🇨🇦retail:
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EVs of 🇺🇸
#cannabis
thru 3/12/21 in USD($0.80):
$CURLF $11.58B
$GTBIF $7.60B
$VRNOF $6.59B
$TCNNF $6.23B
$CRBLF $5.56B
$TRSSF $3.04B
$AYRWF $2.32B
$CCHWF $2.28B
$HRVSF $1.75B
$JUSHF $1.46B
$PLNHF $1.17B
$ACRHF $1.03B
$FFNTF $910M
$VREOF $433M
$INDXF $389M
$CXXIF $179M
Source:BMO
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1. I never fully appreciated how geographically biased investing in the cannabis sector is & how it colours our viewpoint. Cannabis isn't dead as an investment. Canada got it wrong, due to greedy suits & ineffective gov't, but the U.S. hasn't even started. It's 2015 on that side.
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Perfectly stated,
@JSchultz44
.
The FDA science/research is binding. Any article that claims that they're waffling over this due to potent strains has prohibitionist hit piece written all over it. Consider the source and the politics of the outlet.
This WSJ article is a straight up hit piece.
How do I know? Because I know the DEA has EXTREMELY limited discretion in the rescheduling decision especially with the HHS rec for S3. The DEA’s role is strictly and exclusively limited to determining whether the move would violate
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👀👀
Source out of Washington D.C. says marijuana rescheduling is "imminent."
No wonder there's been so many senators calling for de-scheduling this week. If they know it won't happen, it's a safe political play, and they position themselves in front of the issue for November.
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All you need to know about how disjointed cannabis stocks still are can be summed up by:
$ACB +60% today on 250M traded, a 🇨🇦LP & terrible operator that gets no benefit from 🇺🇸 rescheduling
vs.
$TSND red on 300k traded, who will benefit greatly from 🇺🇲reform
Long way to go.
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1. $CXXI Q3 Financials’ Highlights & chart update:
$10.6M USD revenue ($14M CAD, $56M CAD annualized, MC $70M CAD, 1.25x sales)
$1.2M USD Operating Income ($1.6M CAD, $6.4M CAD annualized), now 2nd to $TRUL for US Operators
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Proud of the fact that we are the only public cannabis operator that has generated 5 straight years of +OCF / +FCF. With all the headwinds and absurd effective tax rates.
New dispensary expected to come online this month. 🙏
$CXXI $CXXIF $MSOS
C21 Investments Announces Preliminary Year-End Results
A 5th Consecutive Year of Positive Free Cash Flow
$CXXI $CXXIF $MSOS
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IMO, there are 15-20 truly investable public 🇺🇸
#cannabis
operators (16 in $MSOS) now. Verano, Gage etc. will factor too but there are more institutions wringing compliance depts. ready to charge the space. Then there's RHers/traders who can/will only touch big board liquidity.1/4
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$30M senior debt paid off ✅️
Cultivation expansion ✅️
Retail expansion commenced ✅️
C21 Announces Agreement for the Acquisition of Cannabis Dispensary in Reno, Nevada and Private Placement of Convertible Debenture Units
A 6,500 square-foot purpose-built additional retail channel for the Company's expanded cultivation
$CXXI $CXXIF
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1.
@BenjaminA_Smith
& I were chatting cheap paper yesterday & the need for coverage on this in the sector. I mentioned I would give it a go by doing a series. I will try to address one cannabis company's paper each day moving forward. To start, let's go with what I know -- $CXXI.
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🇺🇸 $MSOS profitability vs.🇨🇦LPs big board effect:
Last Q annualized totals:
Top 9 🇺🇸MSOs (in USD):
$45.6B EV
$3.4B Revs
$1.0B aEBITDA
Top 9 Big Board 🇨🇦LPs (in CAD):
$55B EV
$1.7B revs
($484M) aEBITDA
Price 02/15/21, sorted by EV, with '21 & '22 multiples
Source: BMO, SEDAR
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A lot of the volatility we are seeing the past two days is simply from the $MJUS rebalance. It is creating negative arb and balloon squeezes in specific names... in other words, this volatility is artificial & temporary like we've seen in the past.
Follow
@boldux
for updates.
$MJUS continued rebalancing as of yesterday (2/12) with a -1.4% outflow. Plus, $MJ sold off 1M shares of $MJUS as part of rebalancing (no outflows)
New positions: $AAWH $SHWZ $IXHL
Cash: $4.3M
#MSOGang
#potstocks
$MSOS $WEED $GTBIF $CURLF $TCNNF $VRNOF
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In 3min. only it seems crystal clear to everyone and yet
@donmurphy12a
still has to waste his youth on such a no-brainer piece of legislation to make a growing industry with 400k workers SAFER.
Thank you,
@RepDaveJoyce
for your tireless effort. 🙏
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1. Great note out this morning from Craig-Hallum on 🇺🇸
#cannabis
operators. Interesting to see their Tier breakdown:
Tier 1: $CURLF $GTBIF $TCNNF $TRSSF $CRLBF $CCHWF $AYRWF
Tier 2: $VREOF $FFNTF $CXXIF $HRVSF $JUSHF $PLNHF
Source: Craig-Hallum (w permission)
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👇👇 Nobody gets the games hedge funds play better than BB. This had short & distort written all over it:
-The "waffling over science" premise is false (FDA science/research is binding)
-There wasn't a single current admin source (DEA/HHS/WH), as they all declined comment.
I guess the WSJ article about the DEA being a little skittish to reschedule did the damage to $MSOS today -7%
The media’s main sources for stories derive from hedge funds & political wonks
Hard to tell which one is the driving force behind this story & its salacious headline
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Here is the updated chart as of Friday's close, with $GGB & $CNNX added by request, as well as updated $MMEN revs:
$WEED $ACB $APHA $CXXI $OGI $TRST $TLRY $HEXO $FIRE $CRON $HIP $TRUL $GTII $CURA $CWEB $ACRG.U $CL $HARV $IAN $OH $MJAR $TGIF $PLTH $SNN $PLUS
CC:
@st0ckm0nster
1/6
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A few reminders:
99.9% of $MSOS underlying MCs didn't trade yesterday. This isn't capitulation/retail panic - This is sell programs into no bid.
Algos/arb have no conscience. There's no fundamental support. Need bids for that.
Doesn't make it less painful...Just context, FWIW.
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My updated chart w 37 top cannabis cos. in sales & valuation ranking:
$TRUL $CXXI $HALO $META $PLTH $OGI $SNN $LABS $DYME $VFF $MJAR $VREO $CWEB $TER $IIPR $FAF $ZENA $FIRE $TRST $TILT $TIUM $GTII $OH $IAN $CURA $GGB $CL $HARV $MMEN $CCHW $GWPH $ACRG $HEXO $TLRY $ACB $APHA $WEED
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“Americans have made it clear that Congress should resolve the ongoing conflict between state and federal law on cannabis banking issues by passing legislation that will enhance public safety, tax collection and transparency,” said Nichols.
New today - ABA unveils consumer survey data on debit cards, overdraft and other banking issues in play in Washington.
Learn more:
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I'll be taking a break from here for a bit. Too many nasty people with malicious intentions. I only wanted to share my DD on what I still think are value plays in a bloated sector. Have to protect myself & the anonymity of twitter makes it impossible to know who you can trust.
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As
@RepPerlmutter
states,
#SAFEBanking
is an urgent bipartisan issue needed to reduce public safety risk in communities, support small businesses, & protect the financial system.
You want to
#BuildBackBetter
? How about protecting legal employees at work:
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Dear $MJUS,
You need to have your heads examined.
Sincerely,
People who don't recklessly dump good cos. into no bid just to buy up the offer on bad ones
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1. Even if you discount my verbose rant yesterday, supporting my OCF/Operating Income thesis/chart is 2019 performance. Here's the correlation between Operating Income & SP past 12 months:
Green on my chart:
1. $TRUL 52%
2. $VLNS 129%
3. $LABS 125%
4. $PLTH 80%
5. $CXXI 23%
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Agreed. As much as I hesitate to sound bullish given the PTSD everyone has from too many sector rug pulls, this is the single biggest catalyst in 🇺🇲
#cannabis
to-date given its path to 280E repeal.
IMO, $MSOS's tracking basket likely outperforms as was the case in past bull runs.
This is going to sound crazy coming from us, since we are peak skeptics on the political process, but stocks should actually be up much more on this reco from HHS.
Not in any way opining on timing etc, but just saying directionally, moves should be steep. Even poorly run ETFs
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@todd_harrison
These generic comps are fine to understand the ~2x in profit on rescheduling but wait til you see the breakdown I'm working on of everyone for a 280E vs. Non-280E profit difference.
Eg. When we go from 275% effective tax rate to 21% (no NV state income tax).
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For those who deliberate on SAFE's importance, this is just one of the impacts the delay in passing this bipartisan, bicameral reform has had on the industry.
Taxation without representation (banking, insurance etc.) is the plight of the industry.
Do your job,
@SenateBanking
.
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One Prohibitionist Turtle down 🐢...
WASHINGTON (AP) — Mitch McConnell will step down as the Senate's Republican leader in November, ending a record run in the powerful post.
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🇺🇸Cannabis Comp Table: Cash Flow from Operations
Updated Q2: $VEXTF $TLLTF $JUSHF $PLNHF $SLGWF $CNTMF $GAEGF
Merged: $TCNFF + $HRVSF
$VRNOF $GTBIF $TRSSF $MRMD $CRLBF $CXXIF $AYRWF $HBORF $SHWZ $LOWLF $FFNTF $FLOOF $GDNSF $CCHWF $RWBYF $ACRHF $CURLF
Price thru Aug 27
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How it feels being invested in 🇺🇲 cannabis with conviction -- unequivocally hostage to federal reform -- while watching everything else make new highs:
You can borrow someone else’s stock ideas, but you can’t borrow their conviction. Conviction can only be obtained by trusting your own research over that of others. Conviction is necessary because at multiple points with every multibagger it's going to be you against the world.
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Hopefully S3 makes this far overdue, necessary piece easier to cross the finish line once & for all.
ABA Statement: SAFER Banking Act Still Needed, Even if Administration Moves to Reclassify Cannabis
Read more:
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Nice to see $TLRY's better execution but trading AHs ~900x $2.2M EBITDA posted, whereas $TCNNF trades ~25x $67.5M EBITDA last Q.
Also, US$41M in cannabis sales + US$53M in $APHA's cannabis sales isn't "the world's largest cannabis company based on pro forma revenue"... It's 6th.
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Beacon out today with their Q2 Cash Flow Report, including 29 cos w $CXXIF's & $MMNNF's Q2 results:
"...we view the leaders on OCF margins as (in order) $VEXT, $CXXI and $TRUL. Net of working capital, the leaders on CFO margins were $CXXI, $VEXT and $VRNO "
$VEXTF $TCNNF $VRNOF
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FWIW, this OLC legal opinion would be binding.
My sources tell me the OLC legal opinion requested by the HHS is done and ready to be published. It’s also validating the HHS recommendation and in our favor regarding rescheduling. $MSOS
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@jthum9101
Share unlocks:
$HARV 217M started May 15th but structure unknown.
$TRUL 75.5M July 25th.
$VREO 48M in 1/3rd tranches Sept/Dec/Mar.
$CURA 371M Oct. 20th.
$MMEN 375M starting Nov 25th in increments over 12 months.
$CL 205M Dec 3rd/June 3rd.
I'll look to put out a full list soon.
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Here are some upcoming catalysts for $CXXI:
1. US ticker: US registration statement is effective. US banks with licenses in Canada/CSE can trade shares (eg. TD Ameritrade). Call your broker. Company is awaiting SEC paperwork to file with FINRA for active US ticker. 1/7
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2/ The idea that the market is "telling" us something about reform timing when the entire flush this wk has been on <1% of the sector's MC is simply ridiculous.
The market isn't telling us a thing, other than what we already know -- a deficient market awaiting material change.
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Investing in
#Cannabis
:
Big 5 🇺🇸MSOs (60% of $MSOS ETF):
$CURLF $GTBIF $TCNNF $VRNOF $CRLBF
🇺🇸Totals:
EV/TTM Sales $4.5B = 4.6x
EV/EBITDA $1.5B = 13.9x
vs.
Big 5 🇨🇦LPs (35% of $MJ ETF):
$TLRY $CGC $SNDL $CRON $ACB
🇨🇦Totals:
EV/TTM Sales* $1.4B = 9.3x
EV/EBITDA ($543M) = 100.2x
Just a quick
#cannabis
comp table as companion to the popular graphic that
@S_Andreoni
put together, with updates to LPs who reported fins last week as well as added adj. EBITDA column. Note: Cannabis Sales
🇺🇸 $CURLF $GTBIF $CRLBF $TCNNF
🇨🇦 $WEED/ $CGC $TLRY $APHA $CRON $ACB
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Thanks for having me on, TDR!
Always a pleasure to chat about the sector, even on the not-so-fun red days. 🙏
MSOS Stock Analysis & Key Industry Catalysts Ahead | Trade To Black
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Here is one of the more comprehensive & succinct theses I've come across on the catalysts ahead for 🇺🇸cannabis, by the investment advisory firm, ICANIVEST:
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Wow! To all the bashers that were so certain a $CXXI PP was coming in 20% lower, how about 20% higher! Didn't see that coming. C21 continues to execute deals with shareholder value in mind. No doubt this relatively small dilution will set things up well for upcoming expansion.
News: C21 Investments$CXXI.c closes $7.71-million private placement @ $1.38/unit
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@iancassel
@junglejava1
Have you heard the one about a $100B🇺🇸industry by '30 stuck on illiquid/foreign exchanges w no institutional access/custody issues, legislative hurdles, suffocating algos/naked shorts, predatory lending/antiquated tax regime, w ~20 investable names, a dozen already CF+ despite⬆️?
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Fantastic news for $CXXI longs, as
@CB1Cap
&
@todd_harrison
will bring much needed credibility, awareness, & market reach to
@C21Investments
as their strategic advisor. Looking forward to seeing what this partnership brings!
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1. Agree with
@JSchultz44
's read on this 👇, although the timing here by JPM seems suspect at best, as most of the custody/compliance issues came to a head much earlier this year with CS, BAML, Wasatch etc.
FWIW, I've done some sleuthing on this and will share what I can...
@WeedStreet420
How I read this: “we’re asking for updated, clear FinCEN guidance and an updated Cole Memo once
#SAFEBanking
passes, and we need to ask with clean hands”
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1/
$SAM $4.3B MC
18% YoY Growth
TTM EBIT=$57M➡️80x EV/EBIT
TTM Cash Flow=$56M
$27M Cash
$GTBIF $3.8B MC
48% YoY Growth
TTM EBIT=$215M➡️18x EV/EBIT
TTM Cash Flow=$147M AFTER $125M 280E provisions
$230M Cash
Oh, 🇺🇸
#cannabis
is poised to 2x sales from $25B in '21 to ~$50B in '26.
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"But don’t miss the broader significance. As far as we’re aware, this is the first time the DEA has publicly acknowledged any review is ongoing. A DEA spokesperson told Bloomberg back in August that the agency would initiate its review after receiving the HHS recommendation."
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Officially an oil extraction co. now, $CXXI can begin to showcase how their subsidiaries are more than the sum of their parts.
Hopefully you didn't believe know-it-all bashers that Swell wouldn't close.
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Globe & Mail article yesterday picked $CXXI as 1 of 6 US cannabis cos. to invest in, noting Silver State acquisition (4x cash flow) as a coup. They should have mentioned Sparks is the most profitable dispensary on the planet ($11.2M USD EBITDA in '18).👇
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Skate to where the puck is going, so they say... Unless politicians are too inept to reform antiquated, incongruent federal law with the state-led green wave, leaving no custody for 99% of capital to enter.
In that case, you've skated to purgatory, where 18 of us still believe:
TD COWEN: “.. Legal Cannabis Now a Formidable Competitor to Alcohol. .. over the next 5 years, the cannabis category will add 18 mm past-month consumers, while alcohol will lose 2 mm .. as consumers increasingly embrace cannabis and temper their alcohol consumption.”
$MSOS
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"The bill may include wording that could reassure banks that they can work with cannabis companies on basic things like bank accounts and loans, and propose removing the tax known as 280E that has kept many companies from profitability."
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Hardest principle to practice is to let winners run (assuming fundies/thesis intact). 🧐🧵👇 by JW on riding strength, esp. for the asymmetrical 🇺🇸
#cannabis
in 1st inning w its catalysts still on deck (SAFE, uplist, repeal of 280e etc.) If you don't mind a bumpy ride...
#MSOGang
@jimcramer
I’m a big fan of William O’Neal (IBD) and his research indicates that the stocks that have the best relative strength, are the best ones to buy going forward.(as long as fundamentals are good) To IBD doubling or tripling is a qualifier not a disqualifier. Bottom of the 1st here!
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Live shot of JPM's clients watching 🇺🇸
#cannabis
🌿 this week:
All these fundamental catalysts are still on deck.
$MSOS +20% move in a week is an anthill compared to the mountain of Growth + Multiple Expansion that we'll see.
$CURLF $GTBIF $TCNNF $CRLBF $VRNOF $TRSSF $AYRWF $MSOS
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I just got off the phone with OTC Markets and they confirmed that $CXXI now has an active US ticker, $CXXIF. These things usually take a day or so for your broker to have it live for trading online. GL
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Winner of the best 🇺🇸
#cannabis
analyst note title goes to Craig-Hallum:
"Smoke 'Em If You've Got 'Em. The Time To Act Is Now As Congress Prepares Legalization Bill"
"we believe there's significant upside in Tier 2 Operators... $VREOF, $FFNTF, $CXXIF, $HARVF, $JUSHF, & $PLTHF"
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Top 10 in Cash Flow generated last quarter for public 🇺🇸&🇨🇦
#cannabis
+ current CF trading multiple (EV/CFO annualized):
1 $CL 92x
2 $AYR 35x
3 $GTII 188x
4 $PLTH 121x
5 $CXXI 15x
6 $APHA 663x
7 $HITI 21x
8 $TIUM 42x
9 $HARV 449x
10 $MRMD 80x
Sources(CAD):
EV: BMO
CFO:👇+SEDAR
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In Mar. '22, after 3.5yrs of failure operating in 🇨🇦cannabis, $TLRY's CEO, with NO current 🥦operations in 🇺🇸, is asked about U.S. federal reform by
@cnbc
, instead of an actual MSO's CEO.
Like asking
@Bkov9
about growing potted mums in 🇨🇦greenhouses.
Because we're still early.
Lawmakers should listen to constituents who want legal marijuana, says Tilray CEO $TLRY
Irwin Simon, Tilray chairman and CEO, joins ‘Closing Bell’ to discusses the likelihood of the SAFE Act being passed through Congress and what that means for investors.
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The long wait is over for $CXXI's Business Acquisition Report (BAR) for Silver State Sparks dispensary & audited numbers are very impressive. $24.54M USD 2018 TTM revs confirmed, but $14.52M USD gross margins & $11.18M USD net income better than expected. 60% margins & profitable
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