Toby Channabis 🇺🇸🌿
@mayortoby
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Chief Investment Officer of my PA. Buy and hold 🇺🇸 cannabis MSOs and multifamily RE 🏢. No investment advice here. Tweets are only my opinions.
CA
Joined May 2009
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Valuation of the largest company in each sector:
Pharma: $430b
Alcohol: $420b
CPG: $370b
Soda: $240b
Restaurants: $200b
Tobacco: $140b
Coffee: $140b
Cannabis: $7b 😀
Don't overthink this one.
$CURLF $GTBIF $TCNNF $CRLBF $VRNOF $AYRWF $TRSSF $MSOS
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VP's cannabis update is seeing strong press coverage.. AP, ABC, CNBC, NBC, CNN, NPR, Reuters, WaPo.
Exactly what the administration wanted. $MSOS
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Trump scores the trifecta:
Schedule 3 ✅
FL legalization ✅
Banking ✅
$MSOS
#TrumpForCannabis
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Huge. $MSOS
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What a day.. and the news cycle is just getting started. $MSOS
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Cannabis reform will enter the election chat at some point.
Neither candidate will defend the current Schedule 1 status. $MSOS
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DEA Schedule 3 ruling won't be a "sell the news" event imo.. there's too much money on the sidelines waiting for that signal to buy.
$CURLF $GTBIF $VRNOF $TCNNF $CRLBF $TSND $AAWH $AYRWF $MSOS
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Biden mentioning cannabis rescheduling during SOTU.. after the public release of the full HHS recommendation.. tells you:
1) White House approves Schedule 3
2) DEA will accept this
Coordinated effort.
$MSOS
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@SenSchumer
@FordhamNYC
Cool glasses Chuck.. now can you please put SAFER banking up for a vote so we can protect the 400k+ legal cannabis sector workers?
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Dear
@DEAHQ
,
DEA received HHS recommendation 8 months ago.
The VP, Heads of HHS & FDA, Congress members & your constituents.. are publicly questioning DEA's delay.
DEA should provide its ruling or give transparency into the process.
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Trump supporting FL legalization means its nearly certain he supports Rescheduling.
Both Presidential candidates now support some level of common sense reform & the Rescheduling process is far along.
Whoever wins the election will see it completed. $MSOS
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The SAFER Banking Act would allow credit card co's to provide services.
Seems significant.
$CURLF $GTBIF $TCNNF $VRNOF $CRLBF $TSND $MSOS
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Timely reminder on Rescheduling:
1) vastly more important than SAFER (bye 280E)
2) doesn't require congressional action
3) already in process
$CURLF $GTBIF $TCNNF $VRNOF $CRLBF $TSND $MSOS
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Just learned a large $90b pension plan recently invested >$100m in a leading cannabis focused fund. $MSOS
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Respectfully..
Cannabis investors & advocates are a small community as it is. Let's appreciate everyone who contributes.. those that post quantitative data.. make memes.. host spaces.. call out politicians.. read charts, etc..
Same team.
$MSOS
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HHS didn't write 252 pages recommending Schedule 3 just for kicks. $MSOS
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Most cannabis investors on Twitter know significantly more about the sector than 99% of global institutional capital.. for now..
$CURLF $GTBIF $TCNNF $VRNOF $CRLBF $TSND $MSOS
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If Trump wins, he will take credit for Schedule 3 and Amendment 3.
History will show Rescheduling passed & Florida AU launched during his term.
He'll be the first President to achieve major cannabis reform. $MSOS
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Napkin math.
MSO's trade at 8x 2023 EBITDA while offering 25% profit growth.
S&P trades at 12.8x for 8% growth.
Giving MSO's the same multiple/growth ratio suggests MSO's *should* trade at 40x.
Easy to see the 5x rerating opportunity.
$CURLF $GTBIF $TCNNF $CRLBF $VRNOF
@cannabisinves11
Revised comp sheet fixing '21 ev/ebitda valuation for $CRLBF and $VRNOF that were incorrectly showing '20 valuation figures for those 2 cells. All of the other 198 valuation figures were and remain correct. 🙏 👀🔍
@cannabisinves11
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Whether the DEA proposed ruling is released next week or in a few months, very little chance they go against the HHS S3 recommendation (especially as news of it becomes more mainstream).
This is a coordinated effort.
$MSOS
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Reasonable to think the HHS rescheduling recommendation IMPROVES the chances for SAFE Banking, right?
$CURLF $GTBIF $TCNNF $VRNOF $CRLBF $TSND $MSOS
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The rescheduling of cannabis in the near future is almost guaranteed now.
Biggest change in federal policy in 50+ years. $MSOS
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While the rescheduling process is still with DEA.. the American Medical Association has now published 2 separate reports in April saying cannabis legalization doesn't lead to increased youth usage.
Coincidence? $MSOS
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SAM has pivoted their efforts to stock manipulation & trolling investors..
instead of engaging govt appointees involved in Rescheduling..
shows they accept Schedule 3 will be confirmed.
This is bullish. $MSOS
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Jefferies published a 100+ page thesis refresher on US cannabis.
Seems the largest bank to cover the sector is confident in the potential for more institutional interest. $MSOS
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My IT dept is working on a clean recording of yesterday’s Spaces with $CURLF Chairman
@Boris_Jordan
.
*By “IT dept” I really mean me so stay tuned 😀.
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Prohibitionists SAM says rescheduling could be "soon" & asking supporters to message POTUS & Congress.
Datapoints keep stacking up. $MSOS
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The Cannabis Investor's Trifecta:
1) Schedule 3
2) SAFER + AG memo
3) FL & PA legalize
All potentially in 2024. $MSOS
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White House pushing cannabis reform & mentioning rescheduling again today.. while knowing HHS recommended Schedule 3 & Kamala called on DEA to "get to it quickly".
It all seems so scripted. $MSOS
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Almost everything is pointing to Schedule 3.. except the stock prices.
$MSOS
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Not a political strategist but..
Cannabis would have won over more undecided voters than "eating dogs". $MSOS
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Same-sex marriage was legalized by SCOTUS in 2015.. when it was legal in 37 states & with 58% popular support.
Compare that with Cannabis.. legal in 38 states & with nearly 70% popular support today.
$CURLF $GTBIF $TCNNF $VRNOF $CRLBF $TSND $MSOS
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$MSOS was $15 on hopes of only a banking bill.
At $8 today and we have strong prospects for Rescheduling, some big states flipping AU, normalized taxes, & increased profits.. on top of much stronger biz models.
$CURLF $GTBIF $VRNOF $CRLBF $TCNNF $TSND $MSOS
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Imminent DEA proposed ruling hugely increases the chances that Schedule 3 will be finalized before the election.
This has been coordinated & orchestrated since POTUS ordered the rescheduling review. $MSOS
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Prediction: we will see the final rule reclassifying cannabis to Schedule 3 by the time of the Democratic National Convention in mid August. $MSOS
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Don't say it much but wanted to express my gratitude for this community. Too many accounts to name that are all adding value in complimentary ways. Thankful for those that just passively follow/read/listen too.
$MSOS
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Huge. $MSOS
I will vote YES on Amendment 3 in Florida because the states current medicinal marijuana system approved overwhelmingly like by voters is user unfriendly , bureaucratic, restrictive, and expensive. Yet another fuck up by Ron DeSantis.
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Daily swings in stocks irrelevant to LT investors.
Both Dems and GOP are jockeying for control of cannabis reform.
Mace's bill is a big de-risking catalyst.
Top MSO's are cashed up and generating profits.
It's "when" not "if".
$CURLF $GTBIF $TCNNF $CRLBF $VRNOF $MSOS
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We're at the stage where Schedule 3 is a 90% certainty.. while maybe only 5% of retail investors and 1% of institutional investors even know about the sector.
We'll need more media coverage for the stocks to work much higher. $MSOS
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🇺🇸 cannabis current menu:
*Appetizers*
SAFE
Better cost of capital
*Mains*
Re/descheduling review
Uplisting
Institutional ownership ⬆️
280E reform
More states legalizing
Investments from strategics ⬆️
$CURLF $GTBIF $TCNNF $VRNOF $CRLBF $TRSSF $MSOS $PSDN
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I value this $CURLF refinancing at ~7% accretive to shareholders.
Back of envelope math.
$20m potential interest savings at 25x multiple = $500m
Bigger takeaway is that credit markets are very open for 🇺🇸 cannabis even without SAFE.
$MSOS
Super proud of the
@Curaleaf
team– today’s debt offering raises $425M at 8% interest, reducing cost of funding by 700 basis points from Jan. 2020! Major milestone for us AND the industry- largest debt offering ever for a US-based cannabis Co. $CURA $CURLF
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Can't overstate how significant Schedule 3 would be for Cannabis.
e.g. Curaleaf expects $150m+ of tax savings (cash flow).. which with 280E today, would have taken a TRIPLING of sales to produce (per
@Boris_Jordan
).
$CURLF $GTBIF $TCNNF $VRNOF $CRLBF $TSND $MSOS
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Name another potential $100+ billion market where stocks have been deserted.. with multiple significant catalysts on the horizon?
$CURLF $GTBIF $TCNNF $VRNOF $CRLBF $TSND $MSOS
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Germany legalizing cannabis is an important milestone.
It's the 3rd largest country in the world by GDP & most populous EU member (85m people).
$CURLF $GTBIF $VRNOF $TCNNF $CRLBF $TSND $MSOS
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Strongly agree with others' take on this..
Recently increased rhetoric from the prohibitionists = further confirmation that Rescheduling & SAFER is closer than ever. $MSOS
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Biggest surprise from today is the coordinated videos/messages from POTUS, the VP & the DOJ on Rescheduling (as OMB approval & NPRM was expected).
Shows it's a priority & completely orchestrated. $MSOS
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A year from now we will likely see:
*cannabis on $30b run rate
*Top MSO's strongly growing EBITDA/FCF ($ > %)
*NJ launched
*optimism for NY 2023
*closer to rec in FL, PA, & OH
*cost of debt improved
*SAFE enacted
*path to eventual uplisting
Forest > Trees.
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Released by popular demand..
My chat with Curaleaf Executive Chairman
@Boris_Jordan
.
I know the Twitter community appreciates his engagement.
Also 🙏 to
@march2millions
for helping edit this.
$CURLF $GTBIF $TCNNF $VRNOF $CRLBF $MSOS
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Just listened to
@bcobblaw
on his 18th podcast this month.
If SAFE passes in '21, much respect for his work and dedication.
If not, much respect for his continuing work and dedication.
Big props either way.
$CURLF $GTBIF $TCNNF $CRLBF $VRNOF $TRSSF $AYRWF $MSOS
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Me this weekend trying not to "bore" friends/family by talking.. MSO's, Rescheduling, SAFE, Senate markups, AG memos, 280E, uplisting, yada yada yada..
$CURLF $GTBIF $TCNNF $VRNOF $CRLBF $TSND $MSOS
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Potential catalysts on deck for 🇺🇸 cannabis:
Schedule 3
no 280E
SAFE Banking
Garland memo
FL/OH/PA legalization
Better/leaner biz models
Uplisting
..all while $MSOS still -50% from Dec 2022 SAFE peak.
$CURLF $GTBIF $TCNNF $VRNOF $CRLBF $TSND
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Just in:
@Boris_Jordan
on
@TheDalesReport
:
"I don't think there will be an ALJ".
"Heard DEA has reviewed 90% of the comments (including SAM's) & determined no ALJ hearing needed."
$CURLF $MSOS
MSOS Monday: Curaleaf Boris Jordan Talks Rescheduling + Tilray Earnings
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Within 95 days, cannabis could see both the largest Federal (rescheduling) and State level (Florida) catalysts to date. $MSOS
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Good chance most cannabis biz's never pay another dollar of 280E tax ever again.
Stocks haven't even begun to price that in. $MSOS
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Fact of the Day from
@Bkov9
at $GTBIF:
Illinois collected more tax revenue from cannabis than alcohol in February 2021.
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Huge generational gap between who voted YES (orange) vs. NO (purple) on cannabis in Ohio's election.
Rescheduling or legalization inevitable.
(source: NBC News)
$CURLF $GTBIF $TCNNF $VRNOF $CRLBF $TSND $MSOS
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Trump's pro cannabis statement making him look moderate & inline with popular opinion..
especially to the important swing/undecided voters that will decide the election. $MSOS
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"We're hearing.. they're going to bypass an ALJ & go straight to a Final Rule" per
@adamgoers
. $MSOS
Thanks
@V_arrell
@ElGuapoTron4000
.
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Still think this Rescheduling review is coordinated & scripted.. so would expect to hear *something* during what the WH deemed to be "Second Chance" month. $MSOS
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Reminder: the DEA has never rejected a HHS rescheduling recommendation.
$CURLF $GTBIF $VRNOF $TCNNF $CRLBF $TSND $AAWH $AYRWF $MSOS
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If Schedule 3's confirmed, stocks could double & still be wildly undervalued.
Makes sense that larger investors would just wait & pay up for certainty.
$CURLF $GTBIF $TCNNF $VRNOF $CRLBF $TSND $MSOS
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Rescheduling right on schedule & timed for maximum benefit for
@KamalaHQ
. $MSOS
The Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) remains on track to finalize the rescheduling of marijuana by October, according to an agency official.
$MSOS $MSOX $YOLO
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The fact that DEA didn't sign the proposed rule doesn't matter:
1) AG Garland (the DEA's "boss") signed it
2) Biden (DOJ's "boss" ) strongly promoted Schedule 3
3) OLC opinion looks strong
Schedule 3 highly likely. $MSOS
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Trump has a narrow window to "steal" the cannabis issue by
1) criticizing Biden/Kamala for delaying reform and/or..
2) going a step further & supporting descheduling or legalization.
Kamala needs Rescheduling done ASAP to pre-empt this. $MSOS
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Guessing
@JasonGWild
doesn't need to know exactly when SAFE will pass.
Maybe he only checks on his portfolio a couple times daily.
He might even have a time horizon longer than a month.
Be more like JW.
$TRSSF $MSOS
More
@JasonGWild
, with the most beastly insider buying we can recall. Another ~$188k of reported common shares purchases today and $1.746M reported yesterday (21 Tx between both days). By our rough math, Jason has purchased ~$3.7million in $TRSSF stock since November 19th.
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Told an institutional investor that's buying 🇺🇸 cannabis that they must be a bit lonely being one of the first.
Their reply?
"That's when we often generate our best returns".
Well said.
$CURLF $GTBIF $TCNNF $VRNOF $CRLBF $TRSSF $MSOS
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Which MSOs charts should you be looking at?
Needham shows top MSO's revenue up and to the right.
Stock prices are the other way.
This is what I call a huge opportunity.
$CURLF $GTBIF $TCNNF $VRNOF $CRLBF $MSOS
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113
Bad news: institutional capital doesn't own US cannabis.
Good news: institutional capital doesn't own US cannabis yet.
$CURLF $GTBIF $VRNOF $TCNNF $CRLBF $TSND $AAWH $AYRWF $MSOS
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Not priced in: Rescheduling.
Not even remotely priced in at all: Kamala/Walz running on federal legalization (after rescheduling done).. & then winning.
$MSOS
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It's now obvious that Trump supports cannabis reform (3 comments in a month & plans to make another statement soon).
He clearly supports Rescheduling at a minimum. $MSOS
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110
$MSOS now positive YTD.
+14% YTD
+62% in 5 days
-37% in 1 year
still -85% from the Feb 2021 peak
$CURLF $GTBIF $TCNNF $VRNOF $CRLBF $TSND $MSOS
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Please take a walk on the Wild side with myself and TerrAscend Executive Chairman
@JasonGWild
.
This will be recorded.
$TRSSF $MSOS
🇺🇸🌿
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Potential catalysts for Cannabis:
1) Rescheduling (Schedule 3 most important)
2) New states (FL/OH/PA)
3) SAFER / AG memo
4) Uplisting
5) Fundamentals (growth & cash flow)
$CURLF $GTBIF $TCNNF $VRNOF $CRLBF $TSND $MSOS
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ALJ hearing was only a risk bc of delay into potential Trump presidency.
Trump's FL support now a huge de-risking event.. & ALJ strengthens the case for Rescheduling (checks box in process). $MSOS
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We've cleared the highest hurdle with HHS Schedule 3 recommendation..
the DEA seems boxed in & almost has to agree..
and comment period won't change HHS & DEA's decision.
Schedule 3 is just a matter of time. $MSOS
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DEA seems to be boxed into moving cannabis to Schedule 3.
No logical way for them to justify Schedule 1 or 2. $MSOS
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Me trying to explain rescheduling, HHS, DEA, Schedule 3, SAFER, 280E, Tier 1's, uplisting, etc.. to the "normies".
$MSOS
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Significance of Schedule 3 rec still underrated by the market.
Cannabis sector has made investors skeptical (understandably).. but this is way more meaningful than "SAFE in NDAA" chatter (when $MSOS saw $14).
$CURLF $GTBIF $TCNNF $VRNOF $CRLBF $TSND
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If/when Schedule 3 confirmed, the largest MSO's would each see $100m+ of annual tax savings (Curaleaf $150m+).
20x multiple on $100m = $2 billion of value ($3b for Curaleaf).. on current mkt caps of $1-3.5 billion.
$CURLF $GTBIF $VRNOF $CRLBF $TCNNF $TSND $MSOS
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We have a detailed 250+ page HHS recommendation (historic).. press saying DEA ruling soon.. & politicians getting louder (frontrunning decision?).
Schedule 3 is still the most likely outcome..
don't let stock prices or sentiment convince you otherwise. $MSOS
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GTI and Verano showing real Free Cash Flow (after 280E) while competing with a larger untaxed illicit market..
is like running a marathon with 20 lb ankle weights.
How fast can they run in a Schedule 3 world?
$CURLF $GTBIF $TCNNF $VRNOF $CRLBF $TSND $MSOS
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New AP article says:
1) DOJ signing Schedule 3 NPRM been planned since at least March
2) some DEA people think it politically motivated
3) implies Biden wants it done before election
This is bullish. $MSOS
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VP just gave this update on cannabis rescheduling (loose quote):
“I cannot emphasize enough that we want them to get to this as quickly as possible.. I’m sure the DEA is working quickly and we look forward to hearing their work”.
The message is clear.
$MSOS
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If Ohio approves cannabis by a wide margin (60%+).. that would be just as (if not more) important than SAFE to the bull thesis imho.
$CURLF $GTBIF $TCNNF $VRNOF $CRLBF $TSND $MSOS
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Best guess on $MSOS upside from $10:
S3 proposed ruling & AG memo = $20
S3 final ruling, FL/PA pass & credit cards = $30
Uplisting & strategic acqn of MSO = $40+
*using $MSOS as proxy
$CURLF $GTBIF $VRNOF $TCNNF $CRLBF $TSND $AAWH $AYRWF
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That 250+ page HHS report & OLC opinion isn't going back on the shelf. $MSOS
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UPLISTING is the real IPO for cannabis co's.
Until then, MSO's are semi-private co's trading in an inefficient market.
$CURLF $GTBIF $TCNNF $VRNOF $CRLBF $TSND $MSOS
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My rescheduling timeline prediction:
DEA has read all comments & no ALJ needed ✅.
Working on Final Rule now (if not done already).
Final Rule published pre-election.
$MSOS
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US Cannabis "trifecta" thesis:
Schedule 3
New states (FL & PA)
Capital markets reform
None are priced in today. $MSOS
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Valuing 280E savings at reasonable multiple = 100-200% of current mkt caps for many.
Then add potential for: new states, institutional participation, uplisting, strategic investments..
$CURLF $GTBIF $VRNOF $CRLBF $TCNNF $TSND $MSOS
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Put aside rumors and look at facts. YTD we've seen:
252 page Schedule 3 recommendation
SOTU mention
HHS leader Becerra firmly defending S3
VP hosting public forum (today)
$MSOS
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You know we’re super close to cannabis reform when a few senators mention a stale/irrelevant UN treaty, ask DEA not to act on “political” reasons & SAM does a victory lap. $MSOS
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What will Trump say when he learns that Canadian cannabis companies can list on US exchanges..
but US cannabis companies can't. $MSOS
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UPDATE: post has been deleted as SAM realized more people used their link to express support for rescheduling (than opposing it).
Geniuses, right?
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"For the good of the country we encourage (DEA Administrator) Anne Milgram to reschedule cannabis IMMEDIATELY" - GTI's CEO
@Bkov9
on the 2Q earnings call. $GTBIF $MSOS
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SAM saying Schedule 3 soon.
DEA said comment period likely.
DEA supply chain conference tomorrow.
It’s still “Second Chance” month.
Timing is anyone’s guess though.
$MSOS
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Germany's legalization of cannabis is important bc:
1. Pressures 🇺🇸 to at least do something
2. Shows how quickly positive reform can happen
3. Validates $CURLF EMMAC acqn
4. Other MSO's may start evaluating a global strategy
Btw 🇩🇪 ranked
#4
in global GDP.
$MSOS
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Look at the VP’s words, tone & body language (mentions marijuana safer than heroin which is Schedule 2 twice)..
It’s clear the WH is in charge here & DEA almost has to accept Schedule 3.
$MSOS
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