Benjamin A. Smith
@BenjaminA_Smith
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Senior Financial Writer @ Skyline Group of Companies. Capital markets professional, commentator & marketer.
43.6766° N, 79.7848° W
Joined February 2018
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Just published, I took at look at all the debt maturities among 9 top $MSOS (Ascend Wellness, Ayr Wellness, Columbia Care, Cresco, Curaleaf, GTI, TerrAscend, Trulieve, Verano) to see if 'debt cliff' concerns for 2023 were grounded. Data table included.
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Initiial videos of Michigan's 1st day of
#cannabis
legalization are out. The one below is the lineup outside of Exclusive Ann Arbor - the state's first licensed rec dispensary. A great turnout - even though most 1/8s and grams are retailing for $50 and $17, respectively.
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Colorado
#cannabis
sales are out. Incredibly, a state with only 5.7M people is out-retailing Canada (pop. 37.05M people) by close to 40% nine months into legalization. How many $HEXO s will it take before gov realizes lack of retail and medieval branding regs are the problem?
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Well, confirmation has finally come about that the DEA will reclassify
#cannabis
to Schedule III, which brings about the alleviation of 280e. Congrats to all $MSOS and cannabis equity holders for staying the course. Hopefully your just reward is due.
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Alan Brochstein after publicly telling investors to sell $GTBIF last week, only for GTI to beat on rev growth & topline, EBITDA and increase their buyback by another $50 million.
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🇺🇸
@POTUS
should fire
@DEAHQ
Administrator Anne Milgram for derelict of duty for slow walking rescheduling, despite the August '23 HHS recommendation to which they are legally binded to accept the science.
Like & retweet if you agree!
$MSOS
#CannabisCommunity
#legalizecannabis
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Can't make this up. 13 mo after
@jimcramer
emplored investors to buy $CGC at $49/share "It's done down", Cramer now advising that "The 🌱 industry is just not what it was cracked up to be." All b4 🇪🇺/🇺🇸 unlocks.
This is why retail keeps getting hosed.
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Just in the last 3 weeks,
#weedstocks
investors have had to face:
- $TRST un/lic grow affair
- Bruce Linton's 🥾 from $CGC
- $ACRG / $HARV state investigation for license limit breeches
- $CURA receives
#CBD
🛑 letter
If you can survive this shit storm, u can survive anything.
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Sickening: $KODK Executive chairman granted options for 1.75M shares ONE DAY before Trump admin announced a $765M financing deal sent stock soaring.
Corruption is so blatant nowadays, from all sides and political leanings. WhereTF is the SEC?
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This just hit my inbox courtesy of Seabreeze Partners Management. It appears
@DougKass
is making a significant directional call here, so take this as you will. 🍀 to all. $MSOS
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The absolute gall of shameless pandering knows no bounds with Schumer or his out-of-touch SM staff. We're clearly being trolled, and have been for a very long time. Bring a floor vote or STFU!!! Just about everyone has had enough of this 💩 $MSOS
The SAFER Banking Act would be a huge step to help cannabis businesses.
And we must pass it along with provisions to expunge records for cannabis offenses like HOPE and GRAM.
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This is what the $ACB “largest experiential and retail cannabis store in 🇨🇦" in West Edmonton Mall looks like. Modern, bright, airy high ceilings feel, and most of all, an inviting/non-intimidating atmosphere that's sure to attract customers of all ages.
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$10.08 — Remember this number.
This was the apex high (premarket) of the short-lived Sep rescheduling rally in $MSOS. There's scant overt technical resistance until the $14 area, where prices crashed after SAFE's NDAA failure in Dec 2021. If I were short I'd be getting nervous.
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Is anyone else done with the never-ending hopium that politicians will get meaningful legislation done. The latest: Bipartisan lawmakers have refiled bill to lay the groundwork for federal
#cannabis
legalization.
Just deschedule—that's all that's needed!
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Dear Republicans,
Now would be an ideal time to pass the
#SAFE
Banking Act. Let cannabis companies do their part. Economy needs all the help it can get.
NEW: Fed official says U.S. unemployment rate may hit 30% in the second quarter.
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Medipharm $LABS fins are out:
Total Rev: $31,472M
Cost of Sales: $20,161M
Gross Profit: $11,311
Op Income: $4,227M
Net Income: $1,967M
Congrats for being one of the few solidly profitable industry players on a net basis. Real profitability too not one-time gains or adjusted.
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So if the IRS ruled that 280e does not apply, implying by defacto than cannabis is not or should not be considered a Schedule 1/2 narcotic, WTF is taking the
@DEAHQ
so long? Federal agencies should NOT be in conflict with one another.
$MSOS
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Just out: $CGC Canopy Growth receives Health Canada licence for modern beverage facility in Smiths Falls. The new facility is operational and will begin producing 🌱-infused bevs *today*. First wave of production with include 11 different beverages.
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Kamala Harris has done it 3x. This additional reiteration to "decriminalize
#marijuana
" on the national stage leaves little doubt about policy intentions should the blue wave arrive.
Thanks
@weedstreet420
and
@S_Andreoni
for article contributions.
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When you waited weeks for a meaningful dip to buy US $MSOS but none ever came.
$AYR +4.12%
$CRLBF +5.43
$CURA +5.76%
$GTII +6.40%
$TER +5.11%
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Wow... Love the Aurora Cannabis $ACB news and taken aback by the reaction. $1.4 billion on FD market cap added pre-market... When
@CamBattley
signaled that the institutional investors were coming, he wasn't messing around. Trian is a multi-billion dollar asset management firm 🏆
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In my view, more great news for vaping hard/cart makers as the CDC CONCLUSIVELY singled out Vit E Acetate as the culprit for the crisis. Not a THC or CBD or nicotine issue. Reg risk still present but the news cycle is turning. $SLNG $KSHB $TILT worth 👀.
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Sudden
#weedstocks
CEO resignations/firings so far in 2019:
Bruce Linton – $CGC
Sean Dollinger – $N
Vic Neufeld – $APHA
Alex Coleman – $TILT
George Scorsis – $LHS
Rishi Gautam – $MJAR
Rupert Haynes – $HUGE
Diane Jang – $HEMP
Being a cannabis top 🐶 is often a perilous endeavor
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Upcoming Aphria Inc (TSE:APHA) Extraction Division Could Be a Key Momentum Driver via
@midasletter
#apria
#extractioncenterofexcellence
#ecoe
$APHA
#cannabisextraction
$LABS $NEPT $VGW $RTI $CANN $HERTF
#cannabisstocks
#potstocks
#weedstocks
#cannabisnews
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You have to be a special kind of triggered supercuck to block someone for this kind of response. I will not miss the clickbait and inordinate amount of page filler to satisfy SEO requirements. $MSOS
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My ML experience has set the stage for my new position—confirmed today—as a copywriter at James E. Wagner
@JWCcorp
. As well, I'll be working closely with Marketing and Management on strategic coms. I'm thrilled to integrate into a company I've believed in all along. 5/5
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Just a head's up for followers. Working on weekend piece that will highlight a stock which, I believe, has a great investable thesis going forward. Been awhile since I made a $JWCA -type call, but several dynamics line up. Still early. No position or ML affiliation. Stay tuned.
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People still dump on 🇨🇦 LPs as being fully valued compared their $MSOS counterparts. But no denying the big domestic sales growth according to StatsCan.
#cannabis
sales have 5x from the 1st couple of Qs following legalization. The market has unlocked.
$CGC $TLRY $APHA $ACB $HEXO
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Aurora Cannabis $ACB receives cultivation + processing licenses on their "5th & 6th" sites respective. One of the licenses pertains to Aurora Sun in Medicine Hat AB. It doesn't look like $APHA Aphria Diamond licensing came through this week, however.
Congratulations
@CamBattley
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Wow. Some real scumbags preying on vulnerable CDN jrs with cash/advisory needs.
Appears Moez Kassam (Anson Funds) DECIMATED $ZENA ($ISOL too) via huge naked shorting and mole Board placeholders after PP participation. Shocking account. Poor Kelly Brown.
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With Big 4 quarterly ERs now filed, the quick recap:
$CRLBF - Smashed rev exp., FCF+
$CURLF - Good ER, overcame NV/MA COVID issues
$GTBIF - Solid Q all round
$TCNNF - Smashed everything, raised FY guidance, NI+
I think this was the Q we can say the future holds little doubt.
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Privateer Holdings may not be selling Tilray $TLRY stock in 1H 2019, but CEO Brendan Kennedy is cashing in. Just nine days after his company's lockup expiry ended, Mr. Kennedy divested 149,916 shares for an approx. gain of $11M USD. Congrats on winning the cannabis lottery.
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Huge. The WHO Expert Committee on Drug Dependence will: “Delete cannabis and cannabis resin from Schedule IV of the 1961 Convention”
The vote passed with with 27 votes for and 25 against with 1 abstention.
#Cannabis
will now be removed from Schedule IV.
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So how must CIBC analyst John Zamparo feel ($12~$6.50 PT) with $APHA posting 💪 fins?
- No impairment
- Killed "aggressive" avg analyst est
- No "leadership void"
Planned on retiring use of term, but investors got
#honeydicked
by Zamparo on this one.
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Wow, they actually did it. Following a joint investigation by the OSC and RCMP IME Team, 3 former directors and officers at
#CannTrust
#CNTTQ
have been charged with offences under the Securities Act (Ontario). Peter Aceto, Eric Paul + ML get their due.
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Even in the mid-nineteenth century, they KNEW cannabis was safer than opioids.
- Tilden & Co., 1858: Formulae for making tinctures, infusions, syrups, wines, mixtures, pills, &c
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Aphria $APHA one of yesterday's Germany's medical canna license tender winners—one of 3 LPs if I'm reading the translation correctly. Last year, German pharmacies filled 185,000 Rx where an estimated 40K medical canna patients reside. This will grow fast.
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In the span of about 24 hours, we've had:
$TGOD unable to procure funding for Valleyfield Phase1A completion
$HEXO 😲 miss rev numbers/withdraw guidance
$VFF pricing bought deal 11.07% under market
If there was a way to short inv. bankers and gov policy, I'd be all over it.
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Cowen sell side Managing Director and cannabis analyst, Vivien Azer, is moving on. She announced these intentions tonight on LinkedIn.
Of note: a final pontification on U.S. cannabis, which she deems "is still set to be the most disruptive consumer trend of my lifetime." $MSOS
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Missouri, with a population of around 6.2 million, has recorded the best opening sales month ever among recreationally legal
#cannabis
states. This, despite doing it in a short month and sales beginning on February 3. ✔️ $MSOS
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Just a reminder that $ACB Q4 2019 Financials will be released after the close on September 11 (CC Sep. 12). The results will, at minimum, set the tenor for sector trade to close out the week. Aurora Cannabis is expecting positive Adj. EBITDA for the 1st time in its history.
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In classic
#weedstocks
fashion, watch $ACB gap & run on-open yesterday. Every dip was gobbled up until early aft, on way to a 15.46% trough-to-peak run. Aurora rose another 4.88% today, while most of the sector stumbled.
Damn, this type of ferocious buying was good to see again.
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This week will live in infamy where mass capitulation happened - everyone bogeyed ER. Check out the insane weekly Tier-1% drops (2:15EST):
$CGC ↓28.51%
$ACB ↓29.65%
$OGI ↓36.88%
$VFF ↓27.39%
$CRON ↓26.99%
I feel for the investing community. DM me if you'd like to talk.
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Special thanks to the cannabis investor community for all the support over the past 1.5 years. I plan on continuing to commentate on cannabis market—specifically policy, material events and non-CDN LPs (competitors) as time (and my new employer) allow, so stay followed! 5/5
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Not one to extoll Communist revolutionaries, but I think this quote will most aptly apply to $MSOS and various geopolitical developments in 2024. Interesting times ahead.
"There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen"
—Vladimir Ilyich Lenin
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$MSOS with a little pop on the headline that Mitch 'Turtle' McConnell to step down as Republican Senate leader in November. Good riddance to this corrput cannabis hater, who stonewalled SAFE and other regulatory developments for years.
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Parsing through the $ACB earnings release. Data point that initially jumps out at me:
"Aurora brands accounted approximately 30% of the total market supplied through the OCS"
Quite a dominant position on OCS shelves thus far, considering all the entrants.
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Reading over the $APHA ER—wow. Most everything went right, except ↓ GMs/↓ med prices.
- Net *cannabis* rev ↑65% QoQ (!!)
- Flipped from NI loss to gain in Q3
- All-in" COGS sold/gram ↓14.64% QoQ (!)
- Avg rec 🌱 sold ↑ to $5.47/g (4.78%)
Definitely 📈 tom—standout release.
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Did Cantor's Pablo Zuanic bottom-tick the market in $MSOS? Too early to tell, but it wouldn't be the 1st time an analyst was WAY behind the curve on a macro market call. Thanks for the buy signal Sir! Now let's hope Schumer can give all
#cannabis
investors a 2022 to remember.
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A big scoop:
Ontario, 🇨🇦 biggest market, will begin consultations with industry members to pursue a dist. model where LPs will ship directly to retailers, sources said. **An 📣 could come as early as next week**.
Limit the middleman - everyone wins.
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"I suspect it will be a rescheduling decision by the DEA, *but it could also be something more dramatic*."
Either this will end up being among the biggest pumps in $MSOS history, or we might have actually reached the re/descheduling promised land. SAM must be in shambles ATM.
Um... I think I need to buy more...
$MSOS $MSOX
I said this morning....could be any day now..
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Amazing.
- Terry Booth $ACB
- Cam Battley
- Michael Nashat $TER
- Adam Bierman $MMEN
- $SNDL (multiple)
- $FLWR (multiple)
- Now reportedly (
@BettingBruiser
) Kevin Murphy $ACRG
An incredible shakeup of C-Suite transition in the sector, and we're not even six weeks into 2020.
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Oh my... $GTII $GTIBIF was much better than inline—they crushed it in Q3 2020 :
- Rev $$157.M vs. 13-analyst est of $135.75M
-Adj. Operating EBITDA increased 50.2% to $53.2 million - well over ~38M est
- EPS $0..04 vs. $0.01
All with 0 stores open this Q. What a COVID rebound!
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🤔
A group called 'Law Enforcement Leaders to Reduce Crime & Incarceration' urged Biden to reclassify
#cannabis
in a Thu letter. The rub: DEA Admin
@AnneMilgram
belongs to that org.
If she doesnt reclassify, she goes against her own group's wishes $MSOS
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Still one of the funniest
#cannabis
-related clips I've personally ever encountered. And... some good advise. Love this 😅
Looking forward to 2024!
@POTBROTHERSATL1
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Unfake news: Numbers imply the
#vape
crisis might be over. According to the CDC “Data suggest the outbreak might have peaked in mid-September..." (Dec 12). Meanwhile, anti-vape articles continue unabated. Why has it taken 5 days to hear this perspective??
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Among the best places to be in CDN cannabis this year are the oil/concentrate extractors. Valens Groworks $VGW and Heritage Cannabis $CANN $HERTF are leading the pack in 2019, each with dbl-digit gains. $HALO closing-in with good recent news flow. It's a good niche to be in ATM.
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Asked a $MSOS CEO tonight about
#SAFE
Banking's effect on the sector. He said his disp. in 3 states cannot accept credit cards + debit processing fees are high. He thinks avg. basket size can ↑10-15% overnight if buying on credit was available. He said his situation was the norm
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Congrats
@weedstreet420
on arriving at 10K followers. Your contributions are well appreciated by everyone. Good job Sir!
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Is SAM getting ready for a big pushback once it is formally announced the DEA is descheduling (Sh3)
#cannabis
?? If so, it would be TREMENDOUSLY satisfying to see Kevin Sabet and his ilk (👎) in a decidedly defensive position.
Interesting times dead ahead! $MSOS
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The single best reason to invest in $MSOS - it is COVID proof.
Legal sales across the U.S.—15 states allow rec, 35 allow for medical —hit a record of $17.5 billion, a 46% (!) increase from 2019, according to a new report. Stay the course
#MSOGang
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Valens $VGW out with Q3 2019 ER
- Rev ↑87.1% QoQ ↑641.4% increase over Q1 2019
- Gross profit ↑$12.8M, or 77.8% of rev
- Adj EBITDA of $9.8M in Q3, or 59.4% of rev (23.0% of rev in Q2 2019)
- Net income of $5.9M (or $0.05/sh)
Numbers look juicy 🍬
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It appears
#Edmonton
- home HQ of $ACB - is leading 🇨🇦 in terms of cannabiz innovation. Councillor is using bylaw loopholes to introduce lounges.
“No other place.. has enabled in their bylaws the concept of a 🌱 lounge.. we’re breaking new ground here."
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Canadian
#Potstocks
that have gone into creditor protection (CCAA), 2020:
CannTrust $TRST
Green Relief
Invictus
James E. Wagner Cultivation $JWCA
Pure Global Cannabis $PURE
Sadly, we just exited the 1st quarter and we're just getting started.
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For a long time, the U.S. gov has known that
#hemp
hurds (core fiber) is ecologically superior to wood as a paper making material. It's about time policy catches up with logic - even if it's 100 years too late.
- US Department of Agriculture, Bulletin No. 404, October 14, 1916
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Amazing how BNN Bloomberg, Globe & Mail AND Toronto Star all come out with glowing $APHA / DeFrancesco pieces on the same day (yesterday). Coordinated maneuvering or biggest cannabis market coincidence so far in 2019? The defacto line-by-line rebuttal continues on extraneously.
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Could be something or nothing at all. Below info request date from Sen Warren + 10 others—including Chuck Schumer—regarding sent letter to AG Garland & DEA Administrator Milgram, urging them to remove MJ from Schedule I Jan 30. Does the DEA respond? $MSOS
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Things that Aphria $APHA has divested since the company's Special Committee took charge:
- Stikeman Elliot LLP
- Vic Neufeld
- Cole Cacciavillani
- Liberty Health Sciences
- Green Growth Brand's unsolicited interest
- The Hindenburg "Gap"
I'd say the SC is getting stuff done.
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15
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After some DM consult, extending an olive branch to
@thomasg_grizzle
and crew from the unfortunate twitter cycle both entangling both parties this wkd. Apologize to all for the distraction. Nobody benefits. Hopefully, we call ALL respect each other's messaging going forward.
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Just finished reading the entire iAnthus CC transcripts. One big takeaway was this quote about $IAN $ITHUF expectations:
"The opportunity isn't just about [being]... a $10B company. It's about a $30B company, or $100 stock. But you don't get there just by wishing and hoping."
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@JackPosobiec
@RegularGuy28
Perfect - does this mean my wife can finally stop showing me these endless goofy and senseless videos now?
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Even the AG of the decidedly red state of Arkansas is OKing medical cannabis to get on the ballot now. WTF is the
@DEAHQ
waiting for?? $MSOS
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@CitronResearch
Never short based on valuation—especially early after the IPO. You should already know this after getting destroyed on your Tilray $TLRY call at $65/share. Silliness can last awhile, as you're aware. Need a more compelling reason than 'valuation" here.
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Right now on Indeed... Simple industry due diligence or something more, you decide. However, this is Legal Counsel and not just some market researcher/analyst they're hiring. Have to wonder whether the dominoes are indeed falling, as Vic Neufeld would say. $APH $APHQF $ACBFF $ACB
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OMG
@S_Andreoni
you are truly legend. Now some of the higher echelons on the right of the platform are retweeting your video. Brilliant way to shed light on the issue😅 $MSOS
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Not calling a LT bottom, but the market is priming itself for a wicked short ST covering event. Bears have had it too easy ($200M in 2 days) as short sellers keep piling in as prices collapse. The five largest short positions: $CGC $ACB $GWPH $CRON
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CEO Irwin Simon 📺 on CNBC today. Little new ground covered in terms of why the
#cannabis
sector is struggling, but we learned:
- $APHA selling all vapes it can produce
- Bevs coming in April
- Jr LPs are in trouble (lack fo scale)
↓ Simon 🐻 on NT federal rec legal prospects
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Huge day for U.S. $MSOS as the Georgia Senate runoff is happening. In my view, the potential between a clear expedited path to cannabis legalization or a more elongated state-by-state path. Biden may have the authority to deschedule regardless.. Starting a thread and covering 🌛.
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Significant. NBA is reportedly removing
#cannabis
**from its list of banned substances** and will no longer drug test players as part of a new 7-year collective bargaining agreement.
If the NBA can do **this**, why can't Secretary Becerra rec MJ removed from Schedule 1? $MSOS
No April Fool's joke as a major sporting league enacts logical
#cannabis
policy. NBA is reportedly removing marijuana from its list of banned substances and will no longer drug test players as part of a new 7-year collective bargaining agreement. $MSOS 💥
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My initial reaction if this Canopy Growth $CGC ~ Acreage Holdings $ACRG rumor does come to fruition:
Think about loading up on Liberty Health Sciences stock $LHS $LHSIF as soon as possible.
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Usually an optimist with a positive outlook on life. But is anyone else disgusted by the media disinfo, general disunity, political polarization and toxic discord permeating society? Not to mention the fake potemkin stock market.
Humanity better turn things around soon.
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Tend to concentrate of pre-breakout cannabis setups such as the $CXXI $BAMM $MSVN $STEM of the world, but you guys have converted me. Let's do this.
Glad to be new proud member of the
#MSOGang
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Characteristics btw predatory "pumpers" and legitimate "messengers" in
#weedstocks
:
Pumpers
-incessant chatter on single stocks
-urges buy-ins before the move
-persistent use of pumpish emojis (i.e.🚀, 🔥)
-appearing/disappearing during bullish/bearish impulses
-criticism fail
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$CURA CEO Joe Lusardi appeared on Bloomberg today
Below he explains how U.S. fundys are different than Canada, and how Curaleaf can't grow 🌱 fast enough to service domestic demand.
Once Tier-1 MSOs PA untether from CDN mkt + list on major exchanges, things will get fun again.
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The irony of all ironies:
#CitronResearch
about debunk peer short researcher
#Hindenburg
. Popcorn 🍿 please:
"Congrats to $CRON.. time to rethink all valuations. $APHA compelling on all metrics. Cdn footprint too large to ignore. stock should see US$10. MORE DETAILS TO COME."
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**Significant** news on the NY
#cannabis
front.
Top marijuana advisor to Gov. Andrew Cuomo says legalization legislation will again be introduced through the state budget in January, with goal of enacting reform by April.
$CURLF $CGC $CCHWF $ACRG $VREO
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This seems rather significant: Valens $VGW $VGWCF receives organic certification for cannabis oil production for its proprietary CO2 and ethanol extraction processing methods in accordance with the Canadian Organic Standards. Can't hurt pricing power.
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How about getting the FinTwit Cannabis Queen well over the 2000 follows mark. She rarely takes a day off and makes cannabis investors' days easier by aggregating the most relevant sector news. You deserve to be part of the '5000' club... Rec follow.
@junglejava1
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Wow. New ad campaign (📺this wk) backed by Michigan gov hits every neg
#cannabis
steroetype imaginable:
Users can't focus ✅
Disassociative hi ✅
Grubby 🧔/enviro ✅
Body shaming (?!) ✅
Can't believe some marketing agency thought this was ok. Better ways to dissuade teen use.
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Sales data from OLCC shows Oregonians bought $84.5M worth of cannabis products in March—a monthly record since OR went legal in 2015. A $1 billion run rate for a state with just 4.20M people.
A great example of what REALIZED market potential looks like.
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@DTRTcannabis
This entire situation is ridiculous. If this were about outright legalization, that's one thing. But rescheduling is about acknowledging the medicinal benefits of cannabis, to which there is no debate. It is still a controlled substance under Sh3. What's the problem here?
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