Ralph
@rpahlmeyer
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BD @valoryag , Investor @kervecapital
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1/
As many people have heard, $CoW Protocol, a $250M FDV critical infrastructure provider for open finance is re-evaluating their fee structures, business models, and tokenomics which could potentially drive more than $80M in revenue, resulting in a $1.2B market cap outcome. 🐄🧵
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Everyone is fawning over $FXS, but wait until they realize $CVX is actually the main reason why $FXS is successful.
How is Frax's "innovative" market leading LSD yield possible? Answer: $CVX.
How is Frax's basepool yield and adoption possible? Answer: $CVX 🧵👇
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Most fund managers I talk to are forced to stay away from $RLB due to fund mandates around regulatory issues and the fact that the team is not doxed and won’t take investor calls. My fund is also not invested in $RLB but due to these reasons.
That being said, these same fund
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I've mentioned before that you don't see many funds shilling $RLB because it's difficult to underwrite due to the opacity behind the team, company formation, and KPIs. However, their numbers are easily backed up by triangulating various onchain metrics vs other
Rollbit's crypto futures volume doing more (>) than DYDX's
See snapshot from
@coingecko
At the same time, actual fees accrued for the past 7 days for Rollbit crypto futures puts it on track to beat it's Casino fees quite soon
It's at 50% now (vs Casino fees). Before it was
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$LINK shorts getting annihilated. Will be one of the winners of cycle. My plan is to continue to accumulate on dips.
@CatfishFishy
has been my $LINK guru and kind enough to patiently answer my zillions of questions. If you’re interested to learn more about
@chainlink
he’s a must
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@CryptoWhale
LOL, he's been quite but market is down and now he's saying "i told you so" LMAO
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I'm pleased to publish the long-form thesis on $COW. Because this was our first rodeo making our research public, we had to get legal involved which took a while. We'll look to share more in the coming months. I'm excited about the future of
@CoWSwap
.
1/
As many people have heard, $CoW Protocol, a $250M FDV critical infrastructure provider for open finance is re-evaluating their fee structures, business models, and tokenomics which could potentially drive more than $80M in revenue, resulting in a $1.2B market cap outcome. 🐄🧵
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1/
Not only will the $CoW DAO be turning on the “fee switch”, but the Protocol is adding a mechanism that will buyback of the $COW token. This mechanic, if assumed for both CoW Swap and MEV Blocker, would remove at least $9M in $COW from the market over the coming year... 🐮🧵
TL;DR
This proposal would replace CoW Protocol's current fees with a network fee and a protocol fee, and ask solvers to collect both.
Solvers would (calculate and) keep network fees to reimburse their gas costs, and pay protocol fees to CoW Protocol 1x/week in $COW tokens.
🐮
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Markets are so efficient.
$RLB derivates revenues are higher than $DYDX.
Yet $RLB FDV is less than 20% that of $DYDX.
🤔
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I'm a believer that strong
#Metaverse
/
#GameFi
assets will outperform
#DeFi
. You can count on me being a $CRA buyer around $0.82
@PlayCrabada
has everything going for it: strong team, community, $AVAX subnet catalyst incoming, and $CRA as the gas token.
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Everyone bullish $FXS (myself included) but $CVX is $FXS + $CRV with less inflation. $CVX earns 49% while veFXS is at 4.5% and/or 23.4% in cvxFXS/FXS Curve pool. What's going on around here?
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Autonolas ($OLAS) is the one of the most interesting protocols being developed today and I couldn’t be more excited about its future.
@Autonolas
is a new and original
#Web3
primitive.
Background
I was originally introduced to
@Autonolas
early this year through my work with
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@ConvexFinance
owns 288.6M $veCRV. That is over 6.4x times more locked CRV than their closest competitor. Convex has one of the strongest and most loyal communities. $CVX has a current intrinsic value of $6.94 based on locked holdings. What's the current price $5.10🤔... NFA.
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I love this quote, "Ultimately, the rich own assets with fixed supplies (real estate, stocks,
businesses, art, rare cars, etc.). Their assets largely outperform inflation, and they literally make money while everyone else is hemorrhaging it. That’s by design, of course...
69 crypto theses for 2022...
from the dark place under your feet
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Bullish $ANGLE right now. The coin is producing 65% APR paid out in USDC off very little volumes. Tokenomics have been improved with veANGLE already live.
@StakeDAOHQ
about to release a $veANGLE locker which should incentivize new buyers as many don't want to stake for 4 years.
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👀 Pretty bullish for $NEWO that an esteemed
#DeFi
OG like
@0xMaki
is joining the
@neworderDAO
multisig. Love to see it.
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Most people don't realize that
#crypto
investing is most similar to venture investing, in that a few of your plays often carry your entire portfolio. This requires research, patience, conviction, and yes, a bit of luck.
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More ownership of $fxsETH and $FRAX leads to a higher price of $FXS. Basically, their ownership of $CVX is giving them a higher $FXS price which is allowing them to accumulate more $CVX. Will other DAOs, stablecoin protocols, or LSD protocols realize this and join in?🤔
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Being inundated with PFP projects, how many more unoriginal projects can the market handle? If you'd like to buy into sleeper
#NFTs
,
@mallowsxyz
is one of the most unique projects you can find. Learn about "bring your own algorithm" (BYOA)
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2/
CoW Protocol is most known for their product called
@CoWSwap
, but what is lesser known is their product called MEV Blocker (). MEV Blocker could soon be CoW Protocol’s highest revenue generating product.
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@blocmatesdotcom
@ethersole
I'm stacking $NEWO instead. Better fundamentals, and you're buying $BTRFLY at a huge discount. $NEWO owns $27mm in $BTRFLY, and has $10mm in $USDC with a $12mm marketcap. Sounds good to me.
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1) Fantastic writeup from
@lyrafinance
about the project's new fully autonomous on-chain system governance structure. I hope more projects go in this direction.
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Seems karma has affected me in the best possible way. Do good and good will happen.
@0n1Force
rise up.
#0N1Force
#0N1Fans
#nftcollector
#NFT
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5/
CoW Swap currently has a DEX aggregator market share of just 13% but has been growing at a rate of 70% over the last 12 months. Meanwhile, 1inch, the largest DEX aggregator in the space has seen its market share decline from about 68% to 53%.
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Meanwhile, the market is FUDing
@ConvexFinance
. Why? Well the market thinks
@StakeDAOHQ
or
@iearnfinance
is somehow going to close the gap on locked $CRV. How far ahead is
@ConvexFinance
? Well, Yearn owns 44.7M $veCRV. Stake DAO owns 24.5M $veCRV.
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Just listened to the AMA with
@official_CVI
and the new team including CEO
@moizcohen
. The old team had been quite slow to implement updates, and it seems the new team is on top of what needs to get done in order to scale and increase adoption. I came away impressed. Here were
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The
@stakewise_io
team is quietly executing to plan. Since the launch of their v3...
1) TVL has risen by over 25% (and therefore revenues have risen by over 25%) - from 110k ETH staked to now over 138k, driven largely by demand for
@eigenlayer
restaking.
2) $SWISE emissions
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Frax's market leading 20% DAO ownership of $CVX is allowing them to pump emissions to their pools and achieve the highest APRs. With $CVX Frax is able to direct $CRV emissions, which creates a flywheel effect: Better APRs on their pools lead to more ownership of Frax's products.
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The $JAY token has been stressed tested and the mechanism works. My prediction is that the mechanism is going to be copied like crazy, but built on top of better products and better business models.
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@Crypto_McKenna
Structured products for institutional investors like
@UmamiFinance
that have
- CeDeFi integrations (w/Circle) for fiat onboarding
- Money Services Business license.
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The new
@Delphi_Digital
report on $RLB had a nice scenario analysis on Rollbit deflation. Assuming you believe the purported revenue and growth numbers, Delphi has estimated that $RLB will continue to deflate at an average rate of ~17%, while it's revenues climb 66% to $1.13B
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7/
In addition, MEV Blocker has recently been integrated into Rabby, Uniswap, and Brave wallets and has yet to fully penetrate these userbases.
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You know this
#crypto
meta is peak PvP when quality assets like $CVX and $FXS are bleeding while people pump total shitcoins on
#Metis
,
#Arbitrum
and
#Dogechain
.
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3/
CoW Swap is a fully permission-less decentralized exchange (DEX) aggregator. Its core innovations are (1) batch auctions promoting fair uniform clearing prices and (2) trading protection from different sorts of MEV such as sandwich attacks or front-running.
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The recent NFT wipeout has been quite startling to many. I feel badly for those who have been negatively affected. I’ve been thinking about this and really hope this recent NFT washout changes the space for the better. Change can be a good thing. 🧵 👇
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@ianbremmer
Wow Ian, that is a pretty elitist thing to say.
@USC
is a great school, it's actually ranked
#22
in the country, higher that your alma matter
@Tulane
at
#44
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Here is some alpha on
@neworderDAO
from the recent discussion between
@0xKolten
and
@0xSami_
, I'm going to ignore talk about $BTRFLY because most people know about that project already... New Order is an incubator looking to become the YCombinator of
#DeFi
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Autonolas $OLAS is the one of the most interesting protocols being developed today and I couldn’t be more excited about its future.
@Autonolas
is a new and original
#Web3
primitive.
Background
I was originally introduced to
@Autonolas
early this year through my work with
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A good friend of mine just got a quote for a mobile app from a dev shop in NYC. Guess how much...? $400k!
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12/
The $COW token has been a major underperformer vs $ETH over the prior 18mo. One of the reasons for this has been inflationary rewards paid to solvers. To learn about solvers check out the documentation here:
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@0x_zeno
@CurveCap
@DeFi_Wonderland
He told everyone he's going to continue working on Fixed Forex and KP3R, shouldn't be a surprise.
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11/
MEV Blocker will likely adopt a model that takes 10% from the validator fees. Over the past 12 months, a 10% take rate from validator earnings would have earned $5.2M*
*Note that these fee models are just assumptions and the exact mechanics have not been decided.
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6/
MEV Blocker, which just launched in May 2023, is already doing 72% more volume than incumbent Flashbots. MEV Blocker has had astonishing growth with 450k unique users as of today, adding an avg. of 64k users a month with a transaction volume growing at over 99% YoY.
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4/
MEV Blocker is a free Remote Procedure Call (RPC) endpoint that protects users against harmful MEV. It prevents your transactions from unfavorable rates, saving users money in the process.
So how have both of these products been performing?
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This is the catalyst I've been expecting. Very bullish $ANGLE. I see
@AngleProtocol
becoming a key part of the Forex DeFi ecosystem in the coming years.
1/ Angle Tokenomics upgrade will be live on the first half of January 2022! 🚀
Consequences for protocol stakeholders will be BIG!
We share here some details for the rationale behind the key features of the upgrade 🏗️
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18/
The base case is that CoW Swap hits 30% marketshare with a $500B TAM.
For MEV Blocker, the base case is 3.5M users doing 25M transactions a year, allowing for validator earnings of ~$450M.
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@0xfanfaron
If this was a venture backed startup in the U.S., I'm pretty sure you'd be getting something for the civil courts to think about, and maybe even the criminal courts.
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20/
Disclaimer: This thread is for informational purposes and should not be relied upon as investment advice nor is this a recommendation for any security or investment.
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$NEWO is trading at a $40m marketcap.... but their treasury owns $10m in USDC, $34m in BTRFLY, + 10%
@optyfi
, + 10% H2O. $NEWO is trading significantly below the DAOs treasury assets.
$NEWO is my number one buy right now. Irresponsibly down 20% because $BTRFLY crashed and that crashed because $OHM nuked.
@neworderDAO
should not be correlated to $OHM. There are some smart guys behind NEWO and they're soon launching two new projects.
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If you're interested in learning more about the
#DeFi
options AMM space, I recommend
@hansolar21
who has put together this incredible resource on the niche space of on-chain options:
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19/
For a more detailed analysis, stay tuned for my long form thesis.
Thanks to the CoW Protocol team.
Data driven by
@tokenterminal
and
@artemis__xyz
.
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8/
One could see how this -5.9M deflationary-esque mechanism could potentially create a supply squeeze which could drive up the $COW price significantly. 🐮🐮🐮
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$NEWO is my number one buy right now. Irresponsibly down 20% because $BTRFLY crashed and that crashed because $OHM nuked.
@neworderDAO
should not be correlated to $OHM. There are some smart guys behind NEWO and they're soon launching two new projects.
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Agree with this take🤝
This is a flash in the pan product if I’ve ever seen one. Only benefits influencers, and there are many platforms for influencers to monetize, like the very one we’re on now.
Let’s give it six months.
@ethersole
Because fren tech isn’t actually that great of an implementation. It will remain popular for the next 6 months but the airdrop is clearly skewed to social engagement and crypto is meant to be an open & inclusive place. Personally prefer to share content publically
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@Buffsaur
Also $BENT is grossly undervalued. More locked $CVX than the market cap and $3-4x the voting power per $.
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People are sleeping on $ANGLE, the vote to approve holders sharing protocol rewards is about to be approved and a veANGLE token similar to what Curve does. $ANGLE will become a revenue passive income token. CC:
@rektfoodfarmer
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13/
In time, CoW Protocol should be able to reduce $COW emissions over 40% by paying solvers in ETH or stables with revenue earned after turning on the fee switch.**
See current solver emissions here:
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Jaypeggers' NFT tax loss harvesting idea is not a big or new idea. It's the token and vault mechanism that's very cool.
Go check it out, it's worth a read:
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@kindahangry
Don't forget
@stakewise_io
on the high beta eth list, launching v3 which is a game changer. Will open up institutionalized staking, reduces centralization risks, and tokenomics are legit with 10% fees going to $SWISE holders.
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10/
CoW Protocol will likely start with a model that takes 50% from positive quote deviation. Over the past 12 months, this take rate from positive quote deviation would have brought in over $3.1M*
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@adamscochran
@adamscochran
MIM is overcollateralized. What are you saying? Check this out:
What are your thoughts?
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Here is the $NEWO treasury breakdown:
$48m treasury on a $40m marketcap and that's not even counting two new projects that
@neworderDAO
will own 10% of each.
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8/
But what about revenue?
Well, CoW Protocol could conservatively be doing $8.4M in annual revenue upon turning on the fee switch across both products today. But will they?
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9/
The CoW Protocol team announced plans to test fee models:
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Gird your loins because $ANGLE is the next $KP3R,
#forex
stablecoins are going to explode in popularity as it makes no sense to have USD be the only ultra large marketcap stable coin. $ANGLE protocol revenue sharing underway.
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Daily Degen crushing it as usual. Give them a follow - an incredible resource for daily market updates.
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It's hilarious to me how these
#NFT
influencers who happened to be early in the space with BAYC, Cool Cats, etc. have now become full blown art critics. How does getting into a technology early make you an art critic judging what is good and bad digital art? It's too funny.
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For those of us who have attempted to be active in DAOs over the years and have found it incredibly frustrating, dysfunctional, and hopeless, you're not alone. Help in on the horizon in the form of
#AI
, and this sentiment has been referenced by a number of interesting people,
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Aurora, Near's low gas EVM chain, is the most obvious rotation at this point. Over $800m in incentives beginning to trickle in. Assuming you believe the market is recovering, this one is a rocket ship. Lot's being built at the moment on
@auroraisnear
1/ Announcing the Embeddable Rainbow Bridge — As you know by now, user experience is a core focus at
@auroraisnear
. One of our first goals was to design the Rainbow Bridge in a way that addressed all the points of UX friction we’d experienced in other bridges.
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15/
We’ve already covered CoW Protocol’s strong market adoption, most plausible revenue models, and ability to reduce token emissions significantly.
But what’s the TAM and how big could CoW Protocol grow?
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7/
The proposed buyback mechanic assumed for both CoW Swap and MEV Blocker would remove 36M COW from the market. So +30.1M in investor inflation - 36M via $COW buybacks = -5.9M net COW remooooved from the market.
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@JackNiewold
$NEWO owns 10% of $BTRFLY and 10% of 5 other projects being launched in the coming months, e.g.
@optyfi
and
@H2O_data
among others. What does that make
@neworderDAO
?
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@crypto_condom
@berachain
@BifrostFinance
@MoonriverNW
@Stacks
Imagine the smell if these bera NFTs don't actually get you an airdrop.
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@kamikaz_ETH
@napgener
Nagener goes from the most bullish guy on crypto Twitter to the most bearish.
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17/
3) A potential expansion of CoW Protocol crosschain and support for new token types (i.e. ERC-721 and ERC-1155) will increase TAM by ~12% CAGR.***
***Note that expanding crosschain or supporting new token types has not been announced and is just an assumption of future growth
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A few of the reasons why people don’t understand
@sudoswap
, a thread 🧵…
People identify NFTs as profile pics (PFPs) and/or art. Sure, there are some fantastic profile pics and art NFTs but NFTs at a core level are simply just another token traded on blockchains.
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@NorthRockLP
This isn't a crypto market mispricing, but rather a TradFi market mispricing. Crypto market participants are buying BTC spot. TradFi currently wants nothing to do with crypto.
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In our current player vs player meta where people are just looking for 2x pumps, the most undervalued assets are the
#defi
blue chip protocols like $FXS and $CVX and future blue chips like $ANGLE and $RAIL. People need to stop chasing ridiculous pumps and focus on sustainability.
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@neworderDAO
is expected to launch at least 4 other projects this year, of which it'll own 10% of each. $NEWO is now trading at a $6.5M marketcap, but it owns $6M of $BTRFLY, $1.4M $USDC, and now 10% of all projects I just listed.
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And there is coming down the pipe.
@neworderDAO
is planning to incubate 20-30 projects per year where $NEWO will have a 9-10% stake in each. I can assure you this is not currently priced into $NEWO today.
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@kamikaz_ETH
What is the purpose of this tweet? Just a bunch of complaints with zero critical thinking or suggestion on how to think about it.
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The research I've been seeing on US wealth management being keen to rush in on
#crypto
is quite poor. I remain highly skeptical that this sector of asset management will recommend the incoming ETF. Anecdotal, but I used to work with and still keep in touch with many financial
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Brilliant writeup. I've been using
@stakewise_io
since Dec. 2021 after
@JustinCBram
covered the project on his YouTube channel. Admittedly, I've been farming and dumping $SWISE until I got word a few months ago of Stakewise v3 coming out...
🧵The
@stakewise_io
Thesis🧵
Stakewise V3 is a complete game changer in the Ethereum Liquid Staking Derivative market. My thesis boils down to:
1. V3 Marketplace PMF
2. Tokenomics
3. Track Record & On-Chain Metrics
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Absolutely love $FLX at ~$340. It’s one of the more innovative new stable coin protocols and is undervalued massively at just a $54mm market cap. Rockstar team advised by Nikolai Mushegian (the technical cofounder of MakerDAO). Check out Adam’s thread…
1/25
Today's thread covers one of the newer assets on my list for 2022 (and beyond) which is
@reflexerfinance
's $FLX (warning there are other tokens using that ticker!)
Let's talk a bit about the money god and maker of $RAI
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