hansolar
@hansolar21
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🔮🐶🔮 I like data, defi and degening | @Aevoxyz partner | 〰 Crypto x Options repo | ☕️ @interndao | 🏰 @Castle__Cap
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Joined June 2019
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Been doing some research on crypto options and decided to make it public...
👉Crypto x Options Repository
Currently contains
- options-related analytics sites
- automated article feed
- twitter handles
- list of cefi and defi option services
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How I used options to hedge the FTX implosion making 3376%🤯 on the trade (even before Arthur Hayes👑)
and how YOU can use them to protect yourself against black swans🦢 events
🧵 on option basics and execution
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🧵🧵🧵APY🧵🧵🧵
I spent my afternoon combing through 5,510 sources of yield data from
@DefiLlama
so you won't have to🤓
Aim : find a safe stable yield farm to park $100k
I used *base yield* and not the combined yield to look for protocols that offer
#realyield
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The ✨secret sauce✨ to making money trading crypto options 👉 Selling Options
In this thread I'm sharing some of my most closely held secrets for selling crypto options
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The largest Korean crypto lending company, Delio
@happydelio
holding 38k $BTC made a $600M deal with 3ac just before it went publicly bankrupt.
No mention of any losses from Delio yet, but 3ac fall out may not be over... Would be great if they can clarify if there was any damage
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Funding on BTC is now at 0.0913% per 8 hours.
100% annualized
This is 'god candle' territory
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ETH/BTC bottomed at the halving
then 4x'd in 365 days
something something history and patterns?
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Looking for the next GMX?
It's not another perp dex. The next narrative is options.
You can be early, or you can fomo late.
Investment thesis below👇
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1/ How did
@kingfisher_btc
predict the massive pump 22k to 25k?
👉 Gamma charts
Why did it happen?
👉 Gamma squeeze
Learn to interpret them like a pro
Option 🧵 below 👇
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7 day ETH skews hit 17%
in the options world, this is basically peak FEAR.
Betting that the local bottom is in.
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1/4 Highly opinionated stats on Defi heading into 2022🐯
Including marketcap, revenue, growth catalysts, emissions, and treasury stats (All the data other than m.cap is super spotty unfortunately)
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A month of selling(and three months of chop) leading to negative funding across the board,
high fdv alts getting decimated,
wicky PA(due to the low liquidity),
and people off on vacation for the summer…
While ETH is gearing up towards one of the most bullish demand sinks
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Don't want to get liquidated next time?
Might want to be more selective with your exchange...
CEX Bottom wicks
Binance 40,333👑
Bybit 40,184
OKX 40,210
Woo 39,406
DEX Bottom wicks
GMX 41,102 👑
AEVO 40,704
HYPERLIQUID 40,629
VERTEX 40,637
DYDX 40,200
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gm shorters
this is my gift to you
thank you for matching my longs
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The largest korean Bitcoin lending service
@happydelio
has halted withdrawals along with one of the largest korea yield services
@haruinvest
Delio supposedly 'utilizes' 41,740 Bitcoins. 1 billion dollars worth.
Source
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Does float affect drawdown?
sample duration : 1 month of chop
Top performers
DOGE +26% float 100%
WIF +18% float 100%
ORDI +15% float 100%
STX +10% float 100%
BNB +5.9% float 80%
BTC +3.5% float 94%
Bottom performers
WLD -33% float 2%😱
RNDR -30% float 72%
SEI -24.9% float 27%
0/ Tokenomics Tips - Token Float
Launching with a tiny token float has a high potential for short term euphoria at the cost of long term pain
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🔮2024 Projections & Positioning
MACRO : Bullish 2024
BTC : Positioning into ETF
BTC Eco : Narrative progression
ETH : The long ETH trade
ETH Beta : OP ARB LDO ETC
SOL : SOL is the ETH of this cycle
SOL Beta : NEON
AI : 90IQ thesis
Alt L1s : Parallel EVMs
Perps : GMX vs
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Im sure you know koreans go hard when it comes to crypto...
According to a 2023 survey targeting people with more than $375k held 'abroad', the average korean crypto holder in their 30s held a whopping $9.3m worth in exchanges and wallets outside korea 🤯
This number has
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The SOL 10x-super-fractal.
Lots of similarities with ETH 2020-2021 and SOL 2023-2024
Both fall -95% over 400ish days
Both recover as the strongest leading beta play to BTC
ETH did a +10x from 400 to 4300 in 2020
A 10x from $100 is $1000 SOL
imagin the fomo
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Lyra Thesis : The next GMX?
Similar founders traits
- Iterative builders
- First principle thinkers
- Conservative token emissions
Similar project traits
- Minimalistic UX
- Strong community
- Healthy metrics(OI and revenue)
Target : $0.3
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On conviction : Size like you mean it
Show your acct to you your friends
If they don't say you're crazy, it's not enough
Show it to your wife
If she doesn't beg you to stop, it's not enough
Show it to your dog
If the dog freaks out...
you should stop feeding your dog dog food
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smart money is basically fully deployed and out of stables
what are you doing sitting on cash anon???
h/t
@0xdefidaniel
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Empty ETH books til 3600...
Would be a shame for shorters if there were two billion dollar catalysts this week
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looks like ETH is getting some silky smooth TWAP from coinbase 👀
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1/ Ribbon Finance just opened up its
@aevoxyz
testnet last week. Some initial thoughts...
Covering UX, Margining, Architecture, Fees, Deposits/withdrawals, etc
UX is cleeean; colors, fonts, liveness, trade sounds all pleasing to eyes and ears
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BlackRock launching an onchain interest paying stablecoin is the most mfing bullish news
ignore the etf flows
ignore the fractals
ignore the fud
Listen to the footstep of giants.
They're coming.
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And closed.
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ETH price at 2410 now
From 2475 we enter negative gamma territory
Are we about to see a GAMMA SQUEEZE?
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Korean
#Coronavirus
news :
- 99 people out of 102 in a mental hospital infected
- 75% of all 763 infected are related to the religious cult
#Shincheonji
- The district health official in ground zero(Daegu) was secretly a
#Shincheonji
follower.
You just can't make this shit up🤯
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Starting a $1k to $10k thing on
@pear_protocol
🍐
Timestamp : 2024-07-17
Duration : Unknown
First trade : Long high growth retail favorite l1, short inflationary AI bubble-tech
▸ Long SOL
▸ Short WLD
Sizing : 4x lev 🔥🔥🔥🔥
Updates : Hansolar's telegram(in profile)
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Scary how accurate the Aevo pre market has been...
$4 on the premarket
$4.3 on launch
No funding to coordinate prices, just the invisible hand
Adam Smith would be proud
Dymension $DYM
@dymension
is now trading at $4, implying $4 billion fully diluted valuation
This market will be transitioned to a regular perpetual future shortly after the token gets listed today.
What price do you think it will trade at?
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Market is at new highs and you can hear crickets in the funding markets 🦗🦗🦗
👉 higher.
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260m shards * 0.00165 = $429,000
wat.
Ethena shards program began 36 days ago
- 8.3B shards/day
- roughly 340B upper bound on shards
- 750M $ENA airdropped
- 1 / (750M/340B)) = 453 shards per $ENA token
At $0.751 per $ENA, this means each shard is worth $0.0016578
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$GMX just overtook $AAVE in 7 day revenue
Revenue : 931k vs 870k
Mcap : 220m vs 4.6b
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People usually use a 50-100x multiplier for inflows affects on marketcap.
$4b of inflows would mean an increase of mcap by $200-400b
That's a 22-44% increase in price.
ie. BTC target : 57k to 67k(aths)
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Massive $1.5m naked Bitcoin calls targeting 40k by eoy
and another $500k call targeting 45k
They're paying $25k of theta per day 🤯
Conviction or Delusion? Time will tell...
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now $58m worth of consistent buying from coinbase
looks like ETH is getting some silky smooth TWAP from coinbase 👀
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gm speculators
during hyperinflationary France in the 1790s everyone lost
governments collapsed
merchants lost their businesses
working class lost their jobs
only one class thrived
It was the speculators
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Drift protocol ALPHA TICKET GIVEAWAY!🎫🪂
Drift(👾,👾) is one of the most anticipated perp platforms on Solana and you'll need an alpha ticket to try it out!
1. Follow
@DriftProtocol
2. Retweet and
3. Reply with some metrics🧮 you'd like to see!
Will pick N winners in 48 hours!
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the china spot bid is here.
korean spot bid mia still... kimchi premiums at 1.8%
good tp area is 8% premiums
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shot : found a basechain AI gem
chaser : it's actually good tech
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The kimchi premium can't possibly still work right? RIGHT?
pro-tip : Buy when the price moves up but the premium goes down
trade idea : SOL could run hard *again* (assuming SOL is this season's ETH)
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After sell-the-news, it's sell the 'dead cat bounce'.
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Thanks for the early christmas gifts
@aevoxyz
Dank memes. Quality merch. Relentless shippers
Best dex out there atm 🔥🔥🔥
Doggo approves🐾
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trying to build a legit options protocol in crypto is like trying to sell linear algebra courses at a casino
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Ok, now that we have the basics, we can talk about *EXECUTION*
IMO the best time to buy options is during extremes.
1. ATH Price : Buy puts as insurance
2. ATL Price : Buy calls as moonshots
3. ATL Volatility : Buy puts or calls depending on market situation
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All the outperformers are... how do I put this... not performing?
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being late to a narrative doesn't mean there aren't opportunities to make up for lost time
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binance biddor adamant on not buying 6 figure bitcoin
$0.2 billy market buys in an hour
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Price of rune pups are $90 now.
Implied mcap is of $1b, so my target is hit.
Current profit is around a 4.5x in 2 weeks on good size, so a good trade overall(timing was very lucky).
Was considering selling rune pups on the Arthur hayes shill today and before the airdrop bc of
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Some personal news! 📣
I'm now working with
@WOOnetwork
to bring you weekly macro and defi content through the
@AlphaCircle_
👈
Looking forward to working along side giga-chads like
@CryptoJelleNL
and
@RiceMaximalist
🍚
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@CryptoHayes
There is a tradingview indicator for Fed Net Liquidity created recently too
(For those w/o a bloomberg terminal at home)
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After sifting through the data, it looks like I am going to stick with $GMX GLP offering from 15-20%
(downside hedged with shitcoins of FTX)
Everything else is either
- ephemeral
- unstable
- too low
- too small
- imminently ruggable
- not actually yield
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*fed pivots*
👉 BTC inflows : +252m(+240% increase)
👉 ETH inflows : -5.7m(🤔)
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Trade idea
1. Buy JUP around launch
2. Sell on korean exchange listing
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remember gamma squeezes anon?
target : 70k 🎯
1/ How did
@kingfisher_btc
predict the massive pump 22k to 25k?
👉 Gamma charts
Why did it happen?
👉 Gamma squeeze
Learn to interpret them like a pro
Option 🧵 below 👇
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👉 SUI에 대한 새로운 심층분석 : 수이는 왜 폭락만 할까?
의도적으로 잘못 표기한 토큰발행규칙과
*락된* 팀토큰 과 *비유통* 스테이킹된 SUI의 보상 물량을 바이낸스에 덤핑하고 있다는 증거 포착. (1/12)
원본 :
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ethena could have it's first real test of *negative funding rates* soon.
either we get a luna speed run or get to buy some good dips
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Why Options?
This all sounds super complex... why do people trade with all this complexity when they can just use perps with 100x leverage?
Two main reasons
1. You can't get liquidated when buying(calls or puts) and...
2. up to 2000x leverage👀👀👀
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Q : Why do you trade options when you can trade perps?
A : You can trade these charts with copious amounts of leverage 👇
+490% in a day 🤯
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Whipped up an indicator on chatgpt o1.
Measures relative volume of Korean
Exchanges(Upbit+Bithumb) vs the current ticker.
For SUI it looks like korean volume is NOT cooling down.
They are almost doing as much volume as Binance:SUIUSDT
Blue = Upbit
Orange = Bithumb
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Good traders post memes all the time bc they spend most of their time either waiting for good opportunities or sitting on trades
Bad traders post trades everyday as that gets the most engagament
Know your trader.
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Reminder to self :
Next time you want to splurge on a porsche DO IT. The depreciation is probably less than your trading account.
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what if CME annualized basis lows are actually long signals? 🤔
(worked five out of five times this year)
ETH CME Open Interest in ETH terms has officially hit its ATH.
This continues to be the best indication of interest going forward. CME has officially become the 3rd largest exchange for ETH by open interest.
Nearing 400k ETH and counting.
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Massive $2m calendar spread on ETH
short 2800 calls until halving
long 3000 calls for Jun ETH spot ETF
Smart trade. Big cahoonas.
Me like.
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how serendipitous that su zhu bought TAO a week before the binance listing
this game is definitely not rigged
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In 2014, a 20 year old called Vitalik released a whitepaper predicting novel technologies that could be run on a decentralized compute platform.
In 2024, they've all been created, some have found traction, and some are even worth billions
Savings wallets 👉
@metamask
Insurance
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After getting chopped up on perps, i decided to focus on spot again.
I made three high conviction bets; ENA, Runes and Notcoin covered in the 'Daily Vol' on my telegram channel.
All three have caught on as major narratives.
All of them were fundamentally sound, but the key was
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Contrary to what you might think S. Korea has pretty tight capital controls. You need to declare capital of more than 20k when you take it abroad. And it's illegal to take money abroad for an 'arb'. Hence the persistent kimchi premiums.
Today the Korean IRS declared holding
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+400% delta neutral strategies on defillama
ape at your own risk...
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PSA : ETH shorters are on the wrong side and are about to get squeezed
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This is actually how easy it is.
1. Find the top three chains with the highest monthly inflows.
2. Long them
TVL 1m Changes
SOL +87%
BASE +74%
APT +75%
h/t
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Some ETH bulls that were bullish BEFORE the candle for those that were touching grass
Every single one of them got push back.
All of them held in conviction.
@crypto_condom
@Rancune_eth
@smartestmoney_
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Ending my long long ETH trade here
Sad to end it on a red day, but a win is a win
Gonna finally get some sleep after two and half months
First opened : Nov 7
Avg entry : 2033
Avg exit : 2420
Size : 2000 ETH
(pnl card seems to have an exit price bug)
[November 13, 2023 Hansolar’s Daily Volatility]
🌅 gm. The ETH trade
Heavily positioned in ETH for a longer-term high-leverage swing towards from 1900 to 4200 by July 2024(ETH spot ETF deadline).
Fundamentals : Based on current sentiment and general eagerness to deploy capital,
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🧵 The 10 most powerful dune dashboards on $GMX
(from the dune dashboard competition)
(in fully scrolled screenshots)
If there is onchain ✨alpha✨ on GMX, this is where you'll find it🔍
1/
Public voting is now live on the GMX
@DuneAnalytics
Dashboard Contest!
The jury has announced the nominees. It’s time to vote and help decide which of those dashboards will win the top prizes, including being featured on the GMX ecosystem page.
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You know what would really piss off the tradfi peeps?
If we blew past ATHs over the weekend 🤣
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