These are alarming precipitation forecasts for Austria, Czechia, and Poland for rain fall until Sunday morning. Most of it will fall on Friday and Saturday. The ICON-EU and GFS predictions are potentially disastrous:
In preparing for an
@essl_ecss
@eumetsat
expert workshop on moisture retrievals, it is good to have an extra pair of eyes to check out those temperature and humidity curves. Real paws-on work!
@ReedTimmerAccu
Great footage. I tracked an object that seemed to be lifted particularly fast early in the video. I calculated speeds partly over 100 m/s (360 km/h or 225 mph). Later, debris can be seen to move horizontally at similar speeds just 20ish meters above the ground.
⚠️A dangerous flooding situation will likely develop across Greece, in particular on Tuesday and Wednesday morning in Thessaly and Central Greece. The amount goes literally off the scale in this ICON-EU model forecast map. ECMWF's IFS and the GFS are not much different.
The Czech HydroMeteorological Institute is warning for the upcoming heavy rainfall and gives a press briefing ahead of the event. Great to see this pro-active attitude👏:
⚠️Výstraha ČHMÚ ℹ️ Během následujících dní, minimálně do neděle, bude počasí u nás ovlivňovat tlaková níže spojená s frontálním rozraním, které bude na většinu území přinášet výrazné srážkové úhrny, v jihovýchodní polovině Česka a místy i na návětří výše položených míst až
I have never seen anything even remotely like this before. Since yesterday evening, one supercell after the other tracked roughly from Milan to Venice to Zagreb while producing around 10 cm large iceballs. Absolutely insane.
Devastating storms raged in large parts of northern Italy last night. We observed a strong supercell near Pordenone and found hailstones up to 11 cm in size in Azzano Decimo even four hours after the storm had passed!
@Djpuco
@pgroenemeijer
@PavanFederico00
Never seen anything like this. A supercell-like circulation within a bent-back occlusion producing a swath of 35-40 m/s wind gusts. This is just one run of the ICON-D2 model. Some others had similar features though in other places.
#notaforecast
This is unheard of. Such large hail in November in this part of Europe, along with possibly a tornado. It occurred with a low-topped supercell storm in association with storm Ciarán. CAPE low, very strong low-level wind shear.
The incredible severe weather episode is continuing. After an earlier storm produced hail of 11 cm (!) this morning, new supercells have formed, tracking eastward. The fluffy cloud escaping from the southernmost storm top is indicative of an extremely powerful updraft.
An excellent and well-illustrated (!) explanation of how and why supercell thunderstorms form. This is proof that it can be done in an informative and understandable way without mentioning "clashes of air masses".
🌪️ Durante la tarde del día de ayer, 21 de junio, se llegó a observar un
#tornado
en
#Alca
ñiz,
#Teruel
. ¿Cómo se forman y qué son las supercélulas tormentosas?
👉 Nos lo explica
@Armeteo
en este vídeo.
@rtvenoticias
This is pretty much what was to be expected: very powerful storms initiating over Northeast France this evening. Likely with large or very large hail and gradually the risk of severe winds should increase as they move to Luxembourg and Germany:
At
@essl_ecss
we are working with
@ECMWF
on providing ensemble predictions for large hail. It is still experimental, but this was a the forecast for this Tuesday 0600. I will tag some pictures of hail in the various regions in the thread.
A woman was killed last night when her car was tossed by a strong tornado that apparently either barely missed or hit Rome's main airport:
More storms expected today:
I needed to add contour levels to the hail forecast maps, given the weather situation of Thursday. I am not sure how good the extrapolation is in this rarely visited part of the parameter space. Livorno seems to be at the centre of the risk.
This deeply frustrates my colleagues and me at
@essl_ecss
, and many others working in the area of (hydro-)meteorological hazards. We must learn *why* the warnings "didn't work", and where the chain broke. Likely there are multiple weak links. (1/4)
The storms that are about to cross the Seine river in NW France are in a strongly sheared environment. Low-level hodograph curvature indicating streamwise vorticity should further improve in the next hours.
A potentially dangerous situation could develop Wednesday morning across the Netherlands and Northwest Germany as a cyclone forms and likely deepens quickly. Wind gusts of 120 km/h (30 - 35 m/s) are becoming more likely with newer model runs. Here ICON-D2 at 11 local time.
Extreme damage to a farm in
#Belgium
caused by yesterday's extraordinary long-track tornadic supercell, that tracked from the Morvan all the way into Belgium. Source: relayed to
#ESWD
by Bas v/d Ploeg.
@essl_ecss
In short:
1: The forecast user must receive the information
2: The forecast user must understand the information
3: The forecast user must know what to do with the information
4: The forecast user must believe the information
5: The forecast user must take effective action
(3/4)
We have launched the website with experimental forecasts of lightning and hail for Europe based on post-processed weather model data. We plan to gradually expand this site with more products. Here is a forecast for tomorrow:
This must be among the highest convective available potential energy (CAPE) in Europe. Today's 12 UTC sounding from Cuneo in NW Italy boasts 4267 J/kg of ML and 5666 J/kg of surface-based CAPE. Source:
@MateuszTaszarek
From 2010 until 2020, 3827
#tornadoes
have occurred over land in and around
#Europe
. 329 of them were strong (F2 or higher), 28 intense (F3 or higher) and 2 violent (F4 or F5). The deadliest tornado since 1950 occurred in Ivanovo, Russia (9 June 1984) with 69 fatalities.
A storm like
#Numa
is not a unique. In a study at
@essl_ecss
, my colleague
@alois_holzer
found that four such systems that developed between 1982 and 2006 even reached hurricane strength.
A powerful thunderstorm with lots of detected lightning passed near Porticello (northern Sicily) where a ship capsized this morning killing one, and leaving 6 persons missing. Either a downburst or tornado over water (waterspout) probably occurred.
De drukgolf van de Hunga-Tonga Vulkaan kwam zojuist Homoet voorbij. Een snelle stijging en inmiddels weer daling in de luchtdruk. Wat bijzonder om dit zo te zien zeg!
Najbliższe dni przyniosą nam ulewne opady deszczu, zwłaszcza w płd. Polsce. Wystąpią powodzie i zalania Znajdziemy się pod wpływem niżu genueńskiego. W woj: dolnośląskim, opolski i śląskim, od czwartku do niedzieli, prognozowana suma do 150 l/m2. Punktowo kumulacje opadów wyższe
@Estofex
This is the included graphic of this forecast of the track and intensity of the Mediterranean cyclone. The models are in good agreement regarding intensification to above hurricane intensity.
@ReedTimmerAccu
FYI: I measured the width of two nearby driveways/carports (6 and 7 m) as a reference using Google Maps and counted that the frame rate was 30 fps. The object moved 3 to 4 m every frame. That is how I got to 90 - 120 m/s. I am sure this will be analysed more in detail.
Francesco de Martin presents an analysis of the mesoscale factors leading to tornadoes in Italy's Po Valley, which is probably the most tornado prone area in Europe.
#ECSS2023
. Cool stuff!
Rainfall predictions look bad for Croatia tonight and tomorrow. Also Bosnia and possibly W Serbia will be affected. There is a high risk of flash floods. Also see: (loads slowly)
The giant hail occurred with a right-moving storm that had very strong deep-layer shear of almost 30 m/s per ICON-EU, strong storm-relative boundary layer winds and > 2000 J/kg CAPE. A classic signature in the IR/VIS sandwich product showing a cold-v shape.
Giant hail in Spain today. This hailstone has been reported in the ESWD with a diameter of 11 cm. Southeast of Zaragoza, Aragón can carefully measured remotely from Wiener Neustadt by ESSL's
@essl_ecss
quality control team.
La supercélula que ha crecido en el Sistema Ibérico, ha cruzado el Campo de Belchite y se encuentra ahora en el Bajo Aragón, ha dejado granizo gigante en Herrera de los Navarros. Posiblemente +10 cm.
@essl_ecss
@Djpuco
@MateuszTaszarek
@pgroenemeijer
There was a really pretty thunderstorm near
#Gouda
🇳🇱 this evening. This storm produced quite some lightning with strikes about every 3 seconds and the colors were beautiful because of the sunset.
Those significant weather maps for aviation have been a very poor guidance for today's convective risk across the Balkans. Are they usually that bad? Yesterday I argued an area for severe hailstorm risk should be added. I overdid it a bit (on purpose) make the point 1/...🧵
@samgerrits
Dat heb ik zo nog nooit gezien. Mooi filmpje van een horizontale wervel tussen twee luchtsoorten, waarbij de koelere lucht (rechts) daalt zodat de bewolking oplost en warme lucht links stijgt zodat waterdamp condenseert tot wolkendruppels. En ook nog eens in 3D.
With today's very large hail in France in mid-October, let me share that I am convinced that large hail occurrence is increasing rapidly in Europe. From the European Severe Weather Database () alone we cannot conclude this ...
[Orage de grêle en
#Sologne
ce jeudi fin d'après-midi] Ce jeudi, en fin d'après-midi, un violent
#orage
de nature supercellulaire a touché la commune de Mur-de-Sologne (
#LoirEtCher
) avec de la grosse
#gr
êle ! Photos : Leon Alexandre et Chloé Morin pour Météo Centre.
The recent period of active hurricanes in the Atlantic is highlighted by large swaths of upwelled cooler waters resulting from (west to east) Franklin/Idalia, Lee, Nigel and Margot:
The European Severe Weather Database is being updated while the event is still unfolding. I have heard of more tornadoes further east in Germany and hail in France. Winds in SE Germany and Czechia have not been entered yet, but there are already 118 reports from 4 countries:
I am curious to learn how high the pressure excess will be from the Tonga shockwave at it meets itself from all directions on the opposite side of the globe. That should be somewhere around here:
Such impressive work by my
@essl_ecss
colleagues and partners (shoutout to
@Pre_Temp
@ThiloKuehne
and
@igolask
) in collecting 1464 (!) severe weather reports (not all shown) over the last 7 days. Some screenshots from the database ():
Loop of satellite sandwich product, based on
@eumetsat
imagery showing the evolving storm tops as one of the supercell storms produced the tornado. Also, note the activity over southern Poland that had earlier produced 8 cm large hail.
When you send off four besties and they end up being „attacked“ by hail, lose half of the cockpit nose and have their front windows shattered prior to arrival.
#OS434
Palma to Vienna. Very pleased you all touched ground - alive. Thanks
#austrian
#aua
#airlines
Geosphere Austria is warning for the upcoming heavy rain that could lead to landslides and writes that strong winds and broken trees because of early heavy snow in the mountains are another important hazard:
#Regen
-,
#Schnee
- und
#Wind
-
#Warnung
. Sehr große Regen- und Schneemengen
in den nächsten Tagen. Überschwemmungen und Muren möglich, in höher gelegenen Regionen Schneebruch mit Problemen auf Verkehrswegen und bei Stromverbindungen. Details auf
What a severe weather episode this is across Europe! Third high-end day with the 3rd
@Estofex
level 3 in a row. Maybe quieter on Friday, and then an unseasonably strong jet enters western Europe on Saturday with more severe weather likely.
I had to add contour levels of our experimental hail forecasts for last Thursday. Here you can see the latest ESWD reports overlaid. The largest stones were at least 12 cm in diameter near Riccione and San Marino, occurring near local midnight.
#wxtwitter
@pgroenemeijer
@Djpuco
has any of you aver seen this picture before? It's not something you see everyday and it would be exceptional if true for Italy
What we are seeing fits in a trend that our team at
@essl_ecss
modelled😶. Indications of a strong upward trend in (very) large hail were presented by my colleague
@fra_battaglioli
at the recent European Conference on Severe Storms in May:
The coast between Genoa and Elba will be hit by the bow echo in the next half hour (10:00 - 10:30 CEST). La Spezia seems to be more or less at the apex of the bow and may see the strongest wind gusts. Let's hope it will be less than the ~200 km/h gusts measured at Corsica.
The ongoing tornado outbreak over Shandong province, China (🌪️in Dongming, Yuncheng, Zibo) is taking place in a highly supportive environment. Particularly strong low-level shear & helicity in warm sector SE of a deepening surface low. Very humid too, with dew points around 25°C.
No joke today with a large level 2 and two level 3 areas issued by ESTOFEX. A couple of strong supercells and bow echoes with very large hail, damaging winds, and even some risk of tornadoes across Austria, Slovenia, Hungary, and North Italy:
Severe weather outbreak likely on Sunday from N Italy through Austria into W Hungary. The highest risk of destructive hail will be in N Italy, while the highest risk of damaging wind gusts and tornadoes in E Austria/extreme W Hungary. Read more at
Proximity soundings of a number of NWP models for the approximate time and location of the tornado. All showing high CAPE and strong wind shear. Some differences in the wind in the lowest kilometres:
Mimořádný jev nad Posázavím 21. září 2021 v podobě výrazného otáčivého víru.
Jev NEBYL tornádem či supercelou, jak mohl při pohledu ze země na první pohled vypadat, byl omezen pouze na nejnižší hladiny atmosféry, do cca 2,5 km nad zemským povrchem. Nebyl ani zaznamenán radary.
Vandaag is er in een groot deel van Frankrijk, en België kans op lokaal grote hagelstenen volgens ons experimentele model. Zondag is de kans groter en ook aanwezig in Nederland en West-Duitsland. Zie:
Een potentieel gevaarlijke situatie kan zich woensdagochtend ontwikkelen in Nederland en Noordwest-Duitsland wanneer een depressie snel uitdiept. Windstoten van 120 km/u (30 - 35 m/s) worden waarschijnlijker bij nieuwere modelrun. Hier ICON-D2 om 11 uur lokale tijd.
Náš spolek
@AMSzsCZ
ve spolupráci s
@CHMUCHMI
dnes oficiálně provedl leteckou foto a video dokumentaci v obcích na jižní Moravě, které byly včera zasaženy tornádem. Pás škod je 26km dlouhý a 100-700m široký. Následovat bude tvorba mapy s přesným postupem tornáda a škod.
#tornado
New storms over the Tyrrhenean Sea and western Tuscany form in an extremely unstable environment with more than enough shear for powerful supercells. It is probably not over yet for Central Italy. (Very) large hail and some more severe winds are likely.
🔴 [
#EnDirect
] ⚠️ Grosse suspicion d’une tornade MAJEURE entre le Doubs et la Suisse. Les images sont difficiles au Locle (CH) le où les vents ont probablement atteint 300km/h. Le bilan humain n’est pas fixe.
#Tornade
#Jura
It looks like we should be counting with the possibility of widespread wind damage across Burgundy, Alsace, Lorraine, Rhineland-Palatinate and the Rhine-Main region.
@Djpuco
And regarding very large hail, which is the main risk before the wind risk increases, this is what the latest (09 UTC) models suggest. Outside of these areas (very) large hail risk is a bit lower, but by no means ruled out.
Ik was op het zes uur journaal om te vertellen over het
@essl_ecss
. Het was maar één zin die ik kon uitspreken, maar goed 😉. Misschien meer om acht uur. Ik ben trouwens één van de zeven oprichters van ESSL. Ik kijk erg uit naar de nieuwe ontwikkelingen bij het
@KNMI
Incredible wind gusts of around 200 km/h (!) have hit Corsica, France, this morning between 8 and 9 a.m. as an extremely severe bow echo hit the island. There must be very serious damage with such wind speeds.
This is the aviation significant weather map for Europe, for tomorrow 12 UTC (from: ) . I made a small but important addition, based on . Today, there already was large hail up to 8 cm reported in 🇧🇬.
Convection permitting models are great. But they are not a panacea. Consider the weather forecast for tomorrow morning for the island of Corse. This is what AROME, MeteoFrance's model predicts:
1/x
Right. I think it is quite exceptional. In addition to the risk of large hail, this strong low-level shear suggests there may be a few tornadoes as well.
Not something you expect to see in late
#October
. A marked risk of severe
#thunderstorms
with (large)
#hail
across parts of SW and central
#France
tomorrow. Both ECMWF and ICON forecast profiles with some remarkable CAPE/shear parameters in the afternoon.
Dit soort dingen intrigeert me. Kennelijk denkt het model dat dit kan. Zulke rare verassingen zijn *heel onwaarschijnlijk* maar niet onmogelijk. Hier een uit de hand gelopen extratropische transitie van een hurricane. Bronnen: en
Supercélula desplazándose desde las tierras altas de Caravaca (Región de Murcia) hasta la provincia de Almería. Ha dejado granizo de un tamaño considerable en algunos puntos. 25/8/24
Sadly, it seems the forecasts have been on the right track. Now at 9:00 UTC on Tuesday morning there are already weather stations having recorded more than 500 mm of rain.
Achtung: Region Emilia-Romagna in Norditalien in den nächsten drei Tagen ebenfalls mit extrem viel Regen.
Große #Überflutungen,
#Hochwasser
sind zu befürchten - Regenmengen von 200 bis über 300 l/m² sind prognostiziert!
Es geht schon los - akt. Radar Italien (in die Regionen):
Immens staark
#Rotatioun
virdrun net all ze wäit ewech vun Eschduerf (grob ageschat)! Well dat do en zimmlech däitlechen Dipol ass, wëll ech net ausschléissen, dass do tatsächlech en
#Tornado
um Wierk war. All Informatioun ass wäertvoll! Där Verdachtsfäll hu sech elo schonn e
Such hodographs are as tornadic as it gets in Europe. ICON-EU, ECMWF agree, with the GFS having a tad less shear and CAPE. Compared to the 2 August outbreak over W Russia & Belarus, shear is comparable and CAPE higher. A bit of capping needs to be overcome this time.
In the wake of a damaging bow echo that moved across parts of 🇸🇮🇭🇷, powerful supercells are about to move into an explosive air mass with 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE and strong 1-3 km shear across Friuli and Veneto. Hail > 10 cm size is possible. Take care in Treviso, Mestre, Venezia.
After some local (possible) tornadoes in Germany today, it looks at least as favorable for tornadoes on Friday, but in North Germany.
@Estofex
@djpuco
will issue a forecast. The hodograph looks similar in all models: about 300-400 m2/s2 of both CAPE and Storm Relative Helicity😲!
Erhebliche Schäden in Korschenbroich im Kreis Neuss in Nordrhein-Westfalen. Noch ist unklar, ob die Schäden durch starke Fallböen oder einen Tornado verursacht wurden. Vielen Dank an Silke O. für die Zusendung