Paul Cerro
@paulcerro
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CEO @cedargrovech 2x exits // CIO @cedargrovecm multi-strategy equity research in the C&R space
New York City
Joined November 2014
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👋🏽The quick "Who I Am" tweet 👇🏼
I started my career on Wall Street as an Investment Banker for Merrill Lynch covering consumer/retail/cannabis. Since then, I've worked at various tech startups helping them strategically scale and grow their product/service offerings in the US.
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Lots of my friends in finance can't get jobs.
They have Tier 1 bank experience and some even have MBAs. It's truly a blood bath out there.
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I had to deal with the >100/hr work weeks too. Absolutely brutal.
But on the last deal I did before I quit, I remember having a 7 day period where I worked 149 hours. There's only 168 in a week to put things into perspective for you.
In one stretch I worked 29 hours straight
The death of the BofA associate from overworking is tragic and touched a nerve.
The typical reaction is usually: “guys, take care of yourselves, it’s not worth it, it’s just a job”.
But it’s not that simple.
I was there. I know.
Imagine you work hard all your life, you land
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For anyone curious, here's me sleeping, quite literally, on my desk at 4am
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Geez, De Beers slashes lab grown diamonds by up to 40%
"The man-made gems, which have gained in popularity with frugal diamond buyers, were reduced in price to $500 a carat from $800 — a 37% discount."
This is really only the beginning.
Lots of headlines have been coming out about the declining prices of mined diamonds v lab-grown
While visually, chemically, and physically identical to a natural diamond, lab-created diamonds can cost up to 85% less
See why the market for LG diamonds is just heating up 👇🏼 $SIG
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This $RIVN looks multiple times better than a $TSLA model-Y/X, it's not even a contest.
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I always loved this one from Aston Martin
The 15 most creative car ads I've collected:
1. Range Rover
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@patrickdibia
@GoreClipps
During a firefight it's critical to not have the MMG, LMG, or HMG go down. Seconds are critical and losing any fire superiority could mean more friendly soldiers getting hit.
Once you roll off the downed gunner, medics get called to pull him away from direct fire and be treated.
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$CVNA was losing $3,255 for every car it sold in the first three months of this year while CarMax $KMX made $465.
What an operational nightmare.
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The buy and hold good companies narrative doesn't always work.
Look at Disney $DIS for example. If you invested 5 years ago, you'd have a negative total return from a blue chip name.
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@Pappiness
Every single one of his public speaking events is just him rambling with filler words - how does no one pick up on this???
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@John_J_Ahearn
I mean, that's why they pay you so much. Only the very efficient last at that place. The problem is when you're consistently overworked with little sleep. That leads to bad outcomes if not handled quickly
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@GGGrahamatic
Literally. You're just turning comments from your D or MD.
You can make 50 iterations to one slide before they "sign off on it"
A lot of the time is waiting too because they don't care about your time.
They can send you comments at 6pm, and you can turn them in 30min but have
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If you're a $HIMS investor, just mute this guy. He really doesn't know what he's talking about.
You're better off without his half-baked takes.
And yes I say this as a holder of the name on the long side
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$AMZN acquiring $PTON? Doubt it.
Amazon, the company that prides itself on creating its own internal products/services pay $11b (MC post news) for a fitness bike company riddled with problems?
They could honestly just build it themselves and rollup classes into Prime. I call BS
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@MRD87694463
These are front office roles. Not accounting ppl. Advising clients and active investing is not easily replaced by software
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Everyone keeps ripping on
@BillAckman
for $NFLX but we've all been there with other trades. He's not god.
He's still up for the year (I think?) which is most likely better than 99% of FinTwit right now.
Sheesh
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$HSY buys commodity hedging contracts 3-18 months out. It won't be enough to offset this parabolic rise but they're not dumb.
It's in their 10k. Lmk how Mr. beast hedges against this
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@Tzaidecar
@GGGrahamatic
I think it's more the MDs lack of ability to know what they're trying to convey before seeing 50 iterations for it
I will say that clients definitely notice mistakes
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Coming out of 2023, small caps are definitely going to be the best performers in my opinion
What's a sub-$1 billion market cap company you're bullish on?
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@elonmusk
Elon used to be my idol and I respected him for what he was doing to change the world with his companies.
Now he's so bored that he just fcks around with crypto because he knows he can and the SEC does nothing.
Shame. You used to motivated/inspired so many of us. What happened?
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@CapitalMeek
In finance the roles are pretty much the same wherever you go. They might be different based on strategy, coverage, size, etc but the skill set is more or less the same (based on non-quanty roles) and they're just saying funds and banks have hunkered down and slowed hiring
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$WMT CEO on consumer
“The consumer is still very pressured...and if you look at economic indicators, balance sheets are running thinner and savings rates are declining relative to previous periods. And so that’s why we take a pretty cautious outlook on the rest of the year.”
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@luismen1991
@realDonaldTrump
Idk last time I checked the RP had a kill count of 180k as of this morning
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@Larryjamieson_
The key to making money in real estate is buying the house 20-30% below market rate and then selling for a profit.
Groundbreaking...
Make sure to sign up for this guy's masterclass. Can't get this level of strategy for free.
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@CarlieMiller4U
@Headfullofnigh1
@realDonaldTrump
Please do research before you say stuff.
How Full Are Hospital I.C.U.s Near You?
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@chrishaberle
@GGGrahamatic
Worst worst case, they send you a reply with no direction at all or no actual answers to your question
"We can adjust our exit multiple to 12 but then our IRR looks abnormally high and unrealistic. Do we want to adjust our assumptions to compensate?"
"Thx"
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@franchisewolf
According to a very reliable source, it takes "about $365,000 in annual gross sales" to produce a modest "$35,000/yr income for the owner" and "about 60% of all US stores do not break even"
I constantly see too many franchise locations for sale - worrying
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@ValueStockGeek
Both. $LULU pioneered the modern yoga pant with the triangle stitch for women and the quality is just superior
However, rise of athleisure helped them immensely with the status that premium yoga pants brought while out in public
That little circle logo carries weight
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Ozempic is now available on the website but Wegovy is out of stock👀 $HIMS
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@Austen
It's pretty great considering that Android had it for years before Apple decided to give it to iPhone users
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@ZJ1111111
Yea I remember sitting in one meeting and my associate had to tell me to close my mouth.
I was in such a comatose state I didn't realize my mouth was open and I was starting to drool on the floor
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In regards to $HIMS, I have those who appreciate my impartial commentary and those who think I hate the stock because I keep highlighting risks (lol)
The POV no one bothers to ask is this...
If you're sold on the future of telehealth, $HIMS ability to continue executing in the
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@HindenburgRes
This is like Elizabeth Holmes of
@theranos
telling journalists that the WSJ exposé held no water
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This still has to be the most hilarious trade of 2022
Having to take delivery of 50 tons of eggs 😂
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LOL, $PTON under investigation for insider trading
"When Peloton issued the recall, it admitted the company had "made a mistake" in not acting sooner. Officers and directors allegedly sold more than $300M of stock at inflated prices while investors were in the dark..."
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What do you think will go down as the worst investment decisions of this decade?
I'll start.
Hands down Elon on buying Twitter out of ego and stupidity
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Okay, I decided to write a $HIMS post so that people who follow me or not know some things so we're all on the same page and not assuming things. Will make it easier for everyone to follow along going forward if the baseline was understood.
First and foremost, I am long $HIMS
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@polo_valdez
Everything. High rates means deals can't get funded because vacations don't make sense (PE/RE)
HFs getting crushed for a number of reasons
Not much deal flow for IB so no need for capital markets/advisory
Just everything
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@Badgirlsbedhead
I don't think people truly understand how the system was made to keep them there
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@SPYSTSignals
Yes people think the drug use on the street is to party. Like, no. It's literally to stay awake.
People had all kinds of tricks. Cases of red bull, loads of coffee, caffeine pills, hot sauce, I only knew one that did cocaine.
My cube-mate would drink ~3 iced ventis a day
If I
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Check me on this
The reason $HIMS should focus on the U.S. at the moment is because the cash pay model works well here given
a) lack of insurance coverage
b) high insurance premiums
c) high deductibles
Moving abroad to countries with socialized HC isn't low-hanging fruit
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Markets are unbelievably irrational
$NVDA adds $70B because xAI raised $6B which will be spent on $NVDA chips
Make that make sense
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Some more news for the $HIMS crowd that think GLP-1s aren't the story for the company
" $LLY is now selling vials of its blockbuster weight-loss drug Zepbound to patients for as little as $399 through their DTC site."
This is a direct response to pharmacies compounding.
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This call kind of reminds me of Bill Ackman and Carl Ichan's phone fight like a decade ago $RICK
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Reading through Stifel's Obesity report $HIMS $LLY $NVO
- Tirzepatide still leads to more weight loss at the higher dosage
- GLP-1 patients getting less cancer
- Over 124 drugs in the pipeline
Some snapshots below
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Last night, I falsely accused
@Aktiediplomaten
of insider trading from a post he made back in May.
I shouldn't have done that and frankly, it was none of my business anyways. I'd chalk this up as one of those Twitter posts that shouldn't have been tweet.
I apologize for the
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Problems at $AMC????
No way, not true at all! 💀
Quality research 👌🏼
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More examples of reading the room
$M Macy's dumps on cutting guidance despite all the *positive signs* they were seeing earlier in the year
$DG Dollar General absolutely puking on expecting negative earnings this year
But sure, consumer is doing fine! Soft landing!
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What people haven't mentioned yet is that SVB has ~9,000 employees that are more or less out of the job
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Appreciate the comment from
@herbgreenberg
this morning on $HIMS!
As someone who's read my research, he can attest to the quality. Getting the right information, even when it doesn't fit your narrative/position is still critical to investing.
Link to the quoted research below
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$GTBIF $TCNNF $CURLF $AYRWF $CRLBF have all seen their valuations rise during the pandemic and crushed since early 2021 due to a lack of key legislative passing
Sales & EBITDA have been growing at triple digits, sometimes quadruple digits, and yet buyers continue to dump.
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What do you think the real risks are for $HIMS? I'll take anything you have to share.
Want to see how good of concerns people have on this company.
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@lindseyswansong
No way. Chiropractors fixed my back after my injury. Big fan of what they can do. (FWIW I was once a skeptic)
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HAHAHA omg it's hilarious the $HIMS news that keeps coming out and rugging everyone on here (including me)
Filing for a mixed shelf offering when everyone was praising how their FCF was soooo much that they initiated a $100M, 3 year share buyback authorization.
At least I
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🚨🚨 Won't stop pounding the table until BNPL gets called out for what it truly is, a disease for the consumer.
These companies don't have the same reporting standards as traditional credit companies which makes it very easy to hide how the actual consumer is really doing.
The
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Sahm Rule just got triggered based on July unemployment 🚨
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Sahm Rule hasn't ever been wrong in predicting a recession (yet)
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Is Cava the next Chipotle $CMG? Or the next Sweetgreen $SG?
Will be very interesting when it goes public
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@GuyDealership
That's disgusting. Tell them to go to BofA. They have a promotion right now for 0.15% off.
I have an 820, took out a $32k auto loan from them, 60 months, 4.54% rate.
7.49% makes no sense for them
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As a short seller myself, the call yesterday on $HIMS held little weight as many pointed out.
Full of things everyone already knew about (i.e. compounding isn't FDA approved, there are risks associated with compounding, $LLY and $NVO suing bad actors even though $HIMS isn't one
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With so much positive feedback and new followers this week regarding my $HIMS coverage, I want to try one last time for people to get access and read the report so you are
a) informed by what's actually going on
b) finally understand my position so you're not guessing into the
$HIMS released their Q2'24 last Monday and the market was less than pleased and sent the stock briefly down below $15 on Thursday.
We believe that the comments made by Andrew around the future strategy of compounded GLP-1s are less than ideal.
Teaser report in next comment
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@qcapital2020
My inner college kid says this guy's a nark
The capitalist in me says this was brilliant
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@Tzaidecar
@GGGrahamatic
I think it's more the MDs lack of ability to know what they're trying to convey before seeing 50 iterations for it
I will say that clients definitely notice mistakes
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The NASDAQ is up 10% in just under a month at the START of the year!
Does no one see any issues with that?? $NDX
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@redwood_ryan_a
I feel like you're not using your car right. I have the A4 too and it's amazing.
All the things you highlighted not being able to do are literally human error and you are just being used to everything on an iPad right in front of you.
Most of the things you mentioned are
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Puru is one of the biggest cancers on FinTwit
This guy literally flip flops his opinions based on which way the market is turning.
I've seen pieces of hair stand up stronger in the wind than this guy's opinion. Why do ppl follow him?
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@meetbarvadiya
@John_J_Ahearn
1st year analyst at a tier 1 bank makes like $105/$110 base plus a $10-$20k signing bonus plus up to 100% of base as a first year bonus
On an hourly basis it's hardly more than a McDonald's manager but you're really not spending money cause you have no time to
Also it's on your
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Walgreens $WBA will hit $10,000/share once they unlock their shelves.
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