Nazri
@nzrnrdn
Followers
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aggregating defi @ranger_finance | prev. @laevitas1 @PsyOptions @SDX_Markets
Singapore
Joined June 2010
@james_eagan not me. i made $40 billion this month by making my own coffee instead of going to starbucks.
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you gotta delete the whole country now
Indonesian girl, 15, who was raped by brother is jailed for having an abortion .
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*sees a cat on the street*. My brain: .Don't say it .Don't say it .Don't say it .Don't say it .Don't say it .Don't say it .Don't say it .Don't say it .Don't say it .Don't say it .Don't say it . Me: "meow tsk tsk tsk”.
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1/. I spent the last 12 hours digesting this podcast so you don’t have to. Here’s part 1 of the key stuff that was said and why @solana is so popular, according to @aeyakovenko and @scottmelker. (with timestamps, in case you want to give it a listen).
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you’re wasting your time here, my mind’s made, don’t intrude on my space . what?. @BelmontChicago
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Scooped up another @THELILYNFT!. I'm not stopping until I get my hands on a Charizard. 🔥🔥🔥 . LGTS @notbunjil @0xKylieGender
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- skews saying we bottom soon.- gex saying we see'll see goblin town if BTC loses 90k (heavily -ve gamma → dealers will sell to hedge). think this may be a case where if we do get > 10 vols in put premium, we likely see a relief rally before going lower (see: dec 20)
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besides skew, i think oi-weighted funding rate is a good indicator of froth in the market. $btc is probably the only one you have to look at too, since you can use it as a trigger to short/tp correlated alts. oiwfr between 0.09-0.12 = HEAVY leverage, and market is due a flush
looking at liquidations is fun and all, but so are oi-weighted funding rates
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chat is this the local bottom?. - skew > 10 vols in put premium. historically, a put skew between 10-20 vols has marked the start of a reversal (see: oct 11 and sep 6). - gex is very +ve at 90k. MMs/dealers will be hedging — selling as BTC rises/buying as it falls (see: 100k)
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personal update:. super thrilled to be back in the @solana ecosystem and joining the chads at @ranger_finance 🪖. always been a big fan of derivatives data and i'm looking forward to contribute towards ranger's mission of unifying both data and onchain liquidity. /acceleranger
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as a kid, i loved zoos because i love animals. as an adult, i hate zoos because i love animals.
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everyday i thank god i was raised and grew up in the east. can you imagine being raised in like ᵇᵒᵒⁿ ˡᵃʸ???.
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to whom it may concern,. btc.d ↑ + btc ↑ = alts ↓.btc.d ↑ + btc ↓ = alts dump ↓↓↓.btc.d ↑ + btc → = alts →.btc.d → + btc ↑ = alts ↑.btc.d → + btc → = alts →.btc.d → + btc ↓ = alts ↓.btc.d ↓ + btc ↑ = altsznnnn ↑↑↑
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interesting how short-dated skews have flipped to a put premium (2 vols) despite ATHs . compared to previous ATHs when skew was deep in call territory (5-15 vols). flush incoming?
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vol is meant to be sold. at least until $BTC double bottoms + vrp prints negative (which is now). then it's time to max bid
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as much as i wanna be long in uptober, short-end skew suggests otherwise. weekly skew still only at a 5 vol put premium, not anywhere near the 10-15 vols we usually see at local bottoms
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RT if you prefer epok-epok. Like if you prefer popiah. Trying to prove a point.
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oi weighted funding rate just flipped negative. the last time this happened, $SOL rallied from 160 to 260. data from @laevitas1 and @ranger_finance
$JLP enjoyooooors check in 🫡. calling this is like calling the $SOL bottom so lemme brag for a bit 🙏
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i fear that we are not close to bottoming out. i fear that i am right
interesting how short-dated skews have flipped to a put premium (2 vols) despite ATHs . compared to previous ATHs when skew was deep in call territory (5-15 vols). flush incoming?
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1/ Over the past month, I've had the opportunity to speak to many teams who participated in the @solana Grizzlython Hackathon. Interestingly, over 50% of these teams are planning to launch their own tokens. If you're keen on launching a token, here’s a better way to do it: 🧵
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sad story: i remember when i had hand food and mouth disease, my sister slapped me, knowing i couldn't talk or tell my mum.
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probability of BTC @ 100k a week from now stands at 33%. seems about right considering:. - positive gamma at 97k, not to mention the big 100k (dealers hedge as price goes up). - OB looking thicccc from 99k onwards
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easier said than done. equity curves for selling BTC vol since july '23:. 1) 10-delta weeklies: -15%.2) 10-delta monthlies: -21%. adding a short put (effectively a strangle) recoups some losses but still only yields:. weeklies: +2% .monthlies: -9%
Why not buy $500,000 worth of bitcoin, earn $2,500 per month selling covered calls, and still experience significantly more upside over holding Coca-Cola or a house?.
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same can be said for $SOL. oiwfr > 0.075 = we should see some deleveraging/flush. anything else is just noise
besides skew, i think oi-weighted funding rate is a good indicator of froth in the market. $btc is probably the only one you have to look at too, since you can use it as a trigger to short/tp correlated alts. oiwfr between 0.09-0.12 = HEAVY leverage, and market is due a flush
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lots of interest (for lack of a better word) on the 90k and 102k strike for $BTC 27DEC24. iv on that expiry stands at ~55%, implying a 1sd move of ~6% which puts the expected move within the range of 90,500 to 101,500. interesting
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1/. I spent the weekend watching and digesting this stream (full of alpha!!!) so you don’t have to. Here’s part 1 of The Pit w/ @RandomTask555, @hxrobtc, @blknoiz06 and @somekidpunk. (with timestamps, in case you want to give it a watch).
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somewhere in coalinga, california. liquidation dashboard on a tesla dashboard. @ranger_finance
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"how are you so positive after all that's happened?". "what other choice do i have?".
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why was i just rejected from joining a facebook group called “My Home in Simei” like bro. i’m the biggest simei stan you will ever meet. cut me open and i bleed simei.
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you don't know true stress until you're the last one in a 5 man bottle flip challenge
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weekends are for learning. curious how others are going about with retaining information, trying to make improvements in my learning process, which currently involves:. - reading about a concept/topic.- dissecting it the way i understand it.- recall and review to reinforce
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frontend vol up 20 points, term structure in backwardation and VRP printing +ve . think an interesting play would be to sell short-dated and buy longer-dated vol if you:. - think 90k is gonna hold.- but also bullish mid/long term
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not saying i called the local bottom but. skews don't lie
chat is this the local bottom?. - skew > 10 vols in put premium. historically, a put skew between 10-20 vols has marked the start of a reversal (see: oct 11 and sep 6). - gex is very +ve at 90k. MMs/dealers will be hedging — selling as BTC rises/buying as it falls (see: 100k)
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assuming the flush ends soon, i think BTC-27DEC24-108000-C is worth a punt. vrp printing neutral as well
onchain liquidations coming in hard and fast in the last hour. a flush was necessary—it's gotta be green first (longs liquidated) before we resume uponly. data: @ranger_finance
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we ended up getting that 10 vol put premium (sub-12 vols actually) and would ya look at that PA. we're in call skew territory now but uptober remains intact, at least until we hit 10 vols again. rinse and repeat
as much as i wanna be long in uptober, short-end skew suggests otherwise. weekly skew still only at a 5 vol put premium, not anywhere near the 10-15 vols we usually see at local bottoms
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i know it might not seem like much but this is the first time in a long time i've fasted the first 3/3 days!!! :))).
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1/. Back with more results from @laevitas1’s backtesting tool. This time, we’re comparing iron condors vs. short strangles.
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i have a business meeting with $112,000 on the line this wednesday, please send your well wishes into the universe. if it’s successful i will buy everyone a kinder bueno, thank you.
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they could have 1000x zoom and i’d still get an iphone.
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alhamdullilah this has been my most successful fasting month in recent years. 8/8 days, don’t wanna jinx it but i really really really wanna hit 30/30 for the first time in my life.
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not to mention that bids are looking thiccccer than a bowl of oatmeal at 90k
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HOLY SHIT I DID IT! alhamdullilah, 30/30 for the first time in my life! shoutout to @sssyakirah for keeping me in line. i couldn’t have done it without her, i can’t wait to hear about her month and tell her about mine! . selamat raya, guys. hope you had a wonderful ramadan.
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1/. Selling $BTC volatility during choppy price action in 2023 proved to be a winning strategy. I've been thinking of doing the same, considering that $BTC has been predominantly ranging—a trend expected to continue through the summer. ☀️. Here are my backtest results. 🧵
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1/ . I spent months backtesting one of the most common candlestick patterns over a period of 13 years. Be warned—while the results are interesting, it will shock you. Let’s dive in. 🧵
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Law of JC: As the rate of stress increases, the rate of fuck-this-shit increases too.
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assuming mid-term vol reverts (it has the last 6 times we've hit this level), the play would be to sell vol. if bullish short term, use the premiums from that to offset the cost of going long short-dated vol
Here's a test for our Greeks Live options trading community on CT during the weekend. What does this mean?. We'll pick a winner in the comments below for a prize.
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election premium may be rich but selling vol hasn't really been the play this year. this is the equity curve for selling 10-delta weeklies. vol is meant to be sold, but maybe grass is meant to be touched this week
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aside from skew, think gamma exposure's also useful for identifying local tops/bottoms. since dealers/MMs aim to stay delta-neutral,. in a positive gamma environment: MMs are long gamma > they hedge by selling $BTC as price rises. hence the local top at 90k.
3/. At the $90k level, the market is in a positive gamma environment, with dealers/MMs likely long gamma due to significant call open interest at this strike.
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My fiancé saw that we have a weekly “all hands” at @PsyOptions and asked what an “all hands” meant. Long story short, she now calls our weekly wedding planning sessions an “all hands” 😅
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3 red candles on the hourly and y'all turn bullish???. skews just flipped to a call premium after ranging between 0-8 vols in favor of puts
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ngl i was lowkey hurt after that comment so i said fuck it and decided to go back to school. looks like ya boy’s gon be a finance student 🥴🥴🥴
just received my first racist comments on tiktok 😅 . “uneducated soccer yalam boy”. i mean…he ain’t wrong though 😂😂😂. drag him pls 🙏
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If I don't marry my current girlfriend, I think I'll have to tell my next partner that I lost the only girl I was ever truly in love with. 😔.
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8/. That concludes part 1 of this thread!. If you enjoyed this summary,. - Follow me (@nzrnrdn) for more threads like this (I’m tryna be a threadooor). - Please smash that RT and <3 button.
1/. I spent the last 12 hours digesting this podcast so you don’t have to. Here’s part 1 of the key stuff that was said and why @solana is so popular, according to @aeyakovenko and @scottmelker. (with timestamps, in case you want to give it a listen).
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DJ Khaled's full name is Khaled Mohamed Khaled. His legal name is Khaled Khaled. When being named, parents literally said "another one.".
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don't worry it's all good guys i straightened the tower and now it looks better #nazrisavespisa
http://t.co/NkAtgeMixJ.
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interestingly, at extreme levels of OIwFR (+/- 0.09 - 0.12), the points of froth/depression seem to act as good levels of resistance/support when retested. (see: BTC on 5 dec and SOL on 20 jan). tl;dr: wait for retest for a better r/r?
besides skew, i think oi-weighted funding rate is a good indicator of froth in the market. $btc is probably the only one you have to look at too, since you can use it as a trigger to short/tp correlated alts. oiwfr between 0.09-0.12 = HEAVY leverage, and market is due a flush
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y'all really prefer $ETH over $BTC and $SOL???. you can run, but you can't hide from @ranger_finance's onchain liquidation heatmap
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1/. As @solana nears its 500th epoch in just 9 hours, I wanted to share my experience on the chain I call home. From the first project I interacted with to the most recent, here’s my Solana story so far. #Happy500thSolana
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been meaning to gain some exposure to $ORE for a while. initially started by DLMM-ing ORE-SOL to farm some ORE through fees. but recently fell into the @ISC_money rabbit hole with ISC-ORE LPing & staking. bullish on a hard money future.
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could be an interesting play if you think $xrp is going higher. frontend vols up 45%, backend vols up 10% since last week, 1w VRP prints +ve and 1m vrp just flipped -ve. backwardation makes a case for selling short-dated, buying long-dated
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tabs i always have open:. > @MeteoraAG (most of my port is in DLMMs).> @dexscreener (check my ranges).> @JupiterExchange (to swap).> @tradingview (main charting tool).> @ranger_finance (track onchain liqs + funding).> @laevitas1 (follow vol/skew changes).> @NotionHQ (for notes).
tabs I always have open : . > @ranger_finance .> @JupiterExchange .> @SquadsProtocol .> @_kaitoai .> @x .> google calendar, gmail .> @linear.
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