Joe Burnett, MSBA
@IIICapital
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Bitcoin | Director of Market Research @unchainedcom | Previously @EY_US, @BlockwareTeam, @MimesisCapital | Opinions are my own | Not financial advice
Joined February 2018
Published this thread at $3,500 BTC in January 2019 when Bitcoin appeared to be on its death bed. Today, November 2022, Bitcoin again appears to be on the verge of death to many outsiders. Interestingly, its USD exchange rate is 4.7x higher.
1/ I come to the conclusion that the extreme bull and bear markets of bitcoin are a feature and they speed up the adoption process. Thread inspired by @BitcoinTina.
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LinkedIn is full of people with $250k in a Vanguard target date fund, $250k in home equity, and a $100k BMW and they think they’re crushing it. Twitter is full of people with $2,100,000 - $40,000,000,000 in bitcoin and they think they’re still short bitcoin. Lesson there.
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Apple, Google, and Microsoft have $500B in cash. Bitcoin is worth $400B. Absurdly early.
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Let me get this straight. Bitcoin is almost $100,000 per coin, no S&P 500 companies have adopted it as their primary treasury reserve asset, no major countries have adopted it as their primary treasury reserve asset, and a majority of people in the world still have a < 1%.
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Median new US home price in bitcoin . 2012 - 50,616 BTC.2013 - 19,127 BTC.2014 - 351 BTC.2015 - 901 BTC.2016 - 697 BTC.2017 - 323 BTC.2018 - 24 BTC.2019 - 84 BTC.2020 - 46 BTC.2021 - 10 BTC.2022 - 20 BTC.2023 - 14 BTC.2024 - 5 BTC.
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"I didn't realize that if the average year the money grows at ~10%, and the average return in the S&P 500 is ~9.7%, then all of the value created there is the money printer. That was startling.”. - @tadtweets, former finance professor at Stern School of Business
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Median new US home price in #bitcoin. 2012 - 50,616 $BTC.2013 - 19,127 $BTC.2014 - 351 $BTC.2015 - 901 $BTC.2016 - 697 $BTC.2017 - 323 $BTC.2018 - 24 $BTC.2019 - 84 $BTC.2020 - 46 $BTC.2021 - 10 $BTC.2022 - 20 $BTC.2023 - 14 $BTC.2024 - 8 $BTC.
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Bitcoiners can watch their portfolio drop their entire yearly salary in less than 24 hours and still remain unfazed. We are built different, lol.
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Over 5 years ago, the CEO of @CreditSuisse called #Bitcoin a bubble. Since then, BTC is up 318% and Credit Suisse just sold for ~ 1/5 the size of Dogecoin.
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Luna sold 80,000 BTC and we’re still at $30,000. Was that capitulation?.
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THE FEDERAL RESERVE HAS 20,000+ EMPLOYEES, AND IT DOESN'T WORK. #BITCOIN HAS 0 EMPLOYEES AND WORKS. WHICH IS MORE EFFICIENT AGAIN? @JANETYELLEN.
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10 BTC = billionaire . Almost nobody understands this.
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It is crazy to think that #Bitcoin will ever recover from this. This was clearly a bubble of epic proportions. The recent small uptick is nothing.
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If you own 0 $BTC, you are not prepared for the next 5 years.
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Jaime Dimon thinks there will be more than 21,000,000 BTC. The halving is officially not priced in.
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I’m not sure who needs to hear this but the US government won’t be able to buy 1,000,000 bitcoin below $1,000,000 per coin. All your models will be destroyed.
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In March 2020 Coinbase held over 1,000,000 BTC. This has now dropped to 439,000 BTC. The exchanges are being drained. #Bitcoin is on the cusp of true price discovery.
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Humans have a difficult time comprehending exponential growth. Hold on tight. This is gonna be fun. #Bitcoin
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“#Bitcoin is too risky”. says everyone who holds their entire net worth in a 401k filled with random assets they have no idea how to actually value.
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1. Trump assassination fails. 2. Trump wins election in landslide. 3. Trump creates digital Fort Knox—adopting #bitcoin as a reserve asset. 4. The United States remains the freest country for the next 250 years. 5. Economic prosperity explodes and a global baby boom begins.
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What if the U.S. issued bitcoin-backed convertible bonds to stack 2,000,000 BTC—and wipe out the national debt—at no cost?. A $100,000 bond with 0% interest and a 5-year term. Investors could convert their principal into bitcoin at $200,000 per BTC—a 100% premium. At issuance,.
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90% of $ETH holders have 1 thing in common. They still hold more $BTC than $ETH. #skininthegame.
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I think there are 3 reasonable outcomes for Bitcoin. 1. 🐻 Digital gold ($500k - $1m).2. 🔒 Reserve asset ($5m - $10m).3. 🥇 World currency ($23m+).
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BREAKING: #Bitcoin block 788695 contained transaction fees greater than the block subsidy. 6.7 BTC transaction fees + 6.25 BTC subsidy. This is a the first time in history this has ever occurred due to competitively high block space demand.
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I once met a Bitcoin OG who owns 30,000+ BTC. He doesn't have a Twitter, he doesn't follow podcasts, and he probably does not care about being a "Bitcoin maxi" or not. He simply runs his own node, holds his own keys, and lives his own life.
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Banks are failing, and a record high 67.7% of all BTC has not moved on over 1 year. The stage is set for a parabolic bull run unlike any other. Hyperbitcoinization is here.
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Germany selling #bitcoin into an illiquid 4th of July market is a complete waste of their tax payer’s money.
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Algorithmic stablecoins backed by #BTC will accelerate hyperbitcoinization. Few understand this.
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Median new US home price in #bitcoin . 2012 - 50,616 BTC.2013 - 19,127 BTC.2014 - 351 BTC.2015 - 901 BTC.2016 - 697 BTC.2017 - 323 BTC.2018 - 24 BTC.2019 - 84 BTC.2020 - 46 BTC.2021 - 10 BTC.2022 - 20 BTC.2023 - 14 BTC.2024 - 7 BTC.
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Bitcoin is going to $1,000,000+ and 99.9% of you on this website won’t believe me.
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BREAKING: NEW ALL TIME HIGH. ~ 61.9% OF BTC HAS NOT MOVED IN OVER 1 YEAR. Name another asset where holders refuse to sell after a 72.3% drawdown.
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The same people who think it's crazy to store wealth in #Bitcoin hold their entire savings in a 401k filled with 1,000+ assets they've never heard of.
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Bitcoin will likely get super boring around $10,000,000.
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1. Trump wins. 2. Federal income tax is eliminated. 3. US strategic reserve holds 1 million bitcoin by 2028. 4. Bitcoin reaches $2.5 million. 5. CPI stays below 2% due to energy abundance and technology deflation. America 🇺🇸 wins, and a new era of prosperity begins.
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Bitcoin has been severely mispriced by the market for 15 straight years, hence its 100% CAGR. MSTR found a way to make money accelerating accurate price discovery. Its the largest arbitrage opportunity in the history of financial markets correcting a $100T+ market inefficiency.
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XRP is down ~90% from its all time high measured in bitcoin.
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On July 1, 2013, Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss filed the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust as a planned bitcoin ETF. At the time, the price of #bitcoin was less than $100. Thankfully the SEC did not approve it, in an effort to protect investors from a 450x return.
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The #bitcoin bubble has finally popped. Your worthless digital coins are clearly going to zero. Did you really fall for buying bitcoin at $20,000 2 years ago? Or $9,000 4 years ago? A crash was clearly inevitable.
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In the next 4 years, #Bitcoin will unite America 🇺🇸 and soon after that, it will unite the entire world 🌍. This will be incredible to watch.
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$5M $BTC would still be “early”. We’re at $0.04M. This technology will completely transform the world.
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$MSTR being added to the S&P 500, if their market cap continues increasing, reveals the end game very clearly. #Bitcoin is going to be a part of virtually everyone’s portfolio whether they know it or not.
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If your government or company doesn’t embrace Bitcoin in the next 5 years, it won’t exist in 10.
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BREAKING: In 10 years your house will not still be worth ~ 25 BTC. It likely won’t even be worth 1 BTC.
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Median US home sale price in #Bitcoin . 2012 - 50,616 $BTC.2013 - 19,127 $BTC.2014 - 351 $BTC.2015 - 901 $BTC.2016 - 697 $BTC.2017 - 323 $BTC.2018 - 24 $BTC.2019 - 84 $BTC.2020 - 46 $BTC.2021 - 8 $BTC.
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MSTR wants to issue 10 billion more shares. At current market prices, that would be $3.3 trillion—or 36 million bitcoins. What comes next will be unprecedented. Something will have to give, and I’m guessing the price of bitcoin will be going much higher.
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2 years ago today, Bitcoin was trading for less than $10,000. Today it is comfortably above $30,000 and sentiment feels like we’re below $3,000.
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Bitcoin is up almost 6x from March 2020 lows. And sentiment is near an all time low. Insane.
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The polls were wrong, the experts were wrong, the PhD economists were wrong, the establishment was wrong, and the mainstream media was wrong. You were right. $75,000 bitcoin—new all time high.
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Believe it or not, if you hold $BTC on an exchange, you don't actually have any #Bitcoin!. You must hold your own private keys and use a full node to verify your coins.
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99% of middle class America needs to hear this. The United States national debt is at $32.6 TRILLION. In the end, they will either rug your USD savings, rug your 401k, or both. Opt out by buying #Bitcoin and taking self custody.
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#Bitcoin liquid supply decreased by 145,000 $BTC over the past 30 days. This is the largest decrease recorded in the last 3 years. HODLers 💪are stacking.
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If you still have zero Bitcoin, congrats on storing your life’s work on dead trees.
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Both candidates have a plan to run trillion dollar deficits. Buy bitcoin.
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Bitcoin is hyper volatile because its a $450T+ asset trading for less than $2T.
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The year is 2029. Your college econ professor says, "the #Bitcoin bubble has burst as the price has fallen from $12M to $10M in a couple months.". His net worth? 100 sats.
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#Bitcoin is 1 black swan event away from $0.5M - $1M. Once a major government, central bank, or $500B+ corporation adopts a Bitcoin standard, the real fun will begin.
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Do miners sell #bitcoin to cover their expenses? Yes. Does the halving cut mining revenue in half? Yes. Do the weakest miners and ASICs turn off? Yes. Does the marginal seller affect the price of bitcoin? Yes. Does the halving then affect the price of bitcoin? Yes. Is there.
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You could have bought #bitcoin for $53,000 earlier this week. Now it’s at $58,000. What were you thinking?.
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Median new US home price in #bitcoin. 2012 - 50,616 BTC.2013 - 19,127 BTC.2014 - 351 BTC.2015 - 901 BTC.2016 - 697 BTC.2017 - 323 BTC.2018 - 24 BTC.2019 - 84 BTC.2020 - 46 BTC.2021 - 10 BTC.2022 - 20 BTC.2023 - 14 BTC.2024 - 7 BTC.
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The next Bitcoin parabolic bull market will melt minds.
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I’m a hyper #bitcoin bull, but sometimes weeks like this are a bit frightening to me. Most people truly do not grasp how drastically the world will change if we’re right. And of course I think we are right. Buckle up, things will get interesting.
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You don’t own real estate. You have a ledger entry on your state’s database, protected by your county’s military, and the ledger entry states you must pay an annual fee otherwise they confiscate “your” real estate. You can only truly own #Bitcoin.
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A one month long #bitcoin miner capitulation is about to come to an end. Can you guess what happens next?
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Ethereum is a startup. Bitcoin is the world reserve treasury asset.
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If you're deep into Bitcoin this early, you're not a normal person. Full stop. 😂😂😂.
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Median new US home price in bitcoin. 2012 - 50,616 BTC.2013 - 19,127 BTC.2014 - 351 BTC.2015 - 901 BTC .2016 - 697 BTC .2017 - 323 BTC .2018 - 24 BTC .2019 - 84 BTC .2020 - 46 BTC .2021 - 10 BTC .2022 - 20 BTC .2023 - 14 BTC .2024 - 4.3 BTC.
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How did Bitboy get so popular not understanding anything?.
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If all investors follow BlackRock’s optimal BTC allocation, Bitcoin will be worth more than 5x the total value of all equities, real estate, and bonds. 84.9% BTC and 15.1% everything else. If total global wealth is ~ $800T today, #Bitcoin would be $190M per coin.
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$75,000 bitcoin isn’t cool. You know what’s cool?. $7,500,000 bitcoin.
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Yes, Bitcoin is the only asset to ever survive four 80%+ drawdowns only to come back multiples stronger than before. But after the recent 50% drawdown, you’re sure it’s going to 0 this time.
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Most people don't intuitively understand #Bitcoin because they've never thought deeply about money.
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The first moment bitcoin trades for $100,000 Coinbase is guaranteed to be down.
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It blows my mind that more people are not immediately somewhat captivated by #bitcoin. Here’s a likely way to turn $64,000 into $10,000,000. Them: interesting, you watch the game last night?.
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#Bitcoin is the only asset in the universe that has a credibly fixed supply. Let that sink in.
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A net 19,000 BTC were withdrawn from exchanges just yesterday. Global exchange balance is now down to 2.36M BTC. We're just getting started. #Bitcoin
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Bitcoin is hyper volatile because it’s a $10M+ asset trading for $103,000.
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Almost ~ 2,000 BTC are being withdrawn from Binance every hour. If you have BTC on Binance, you may not actually have any BTC.
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Why is $MSTR soaring? It’s a bitcoin black hole. 1. Borrow money (convertible notes) to buy bitcoin. 2. If it's a bull market, leveraged bitcoin will trade at a premium (MSTR). 3. Sell new shares at premium and buy more bitcoin. 4. Repeat.
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If you own shares of the BlackRock spot Bitcoin ETF, you own 0.00000000 BTC. Few will understand this.
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