Started my own booze-focused fund called
@topshelfvc
. Also run Uncharted- a community of the world’s best founders/funders. Ironman | Actor | Traveller 🤙
Hi, I'm Noah. Seeing some new followers here so wanted to re-introduce myself.
I'm Noah Friedman. I co-founded and run a venture/PE fund focused on the biggest opportunities in the multi-trillon dollar beverage alcohol industry. It's called
@topshelfvc
.
I also run a community
WATCH: Bud Light just released this new commercial with Shane Gillis.
This is likely the first of many Bud Light commercials we'll see with Shane through the rest of football season.
Old school beer ads are back!
I have a feeling Bud Light is about to have a huge year.
Hey
@Equinox
8pm close time is absolutely insane.
Some us of New Yorkers like to train at night.
It’s insane to close a gym that early especially given the monthly fee.
I can’t be the only one losing my mind over this?
Heir apparent:
Bernard Arnault (CEO of LVMH) just named his 29 year old son Head of LVMH family holding group.
Why its a subtly big deal for the family behind the $500 billion dollar empire:
The alcohol industry is one of the most lucrative and powerful industries in America. Hundreds of billions of dollars move through the system each year...
But the industry is veiled in secrecy and few understand how it really works.
Here's a quick overview:
👇
George Clooney is one of the most successful actors of all time.
But despite being a bankable movie star, most of his wealth doesn't come from movies...
It comes from tequila.
Here's the wild story of how Clooney struck gold with Casamigos 👇
Noteworthy tequila industry news:
Casa Azul wins their trademark battle against Clase Azul.
Quick background on this unique case and its potential implications for the future of the alcohol market 👇
In 2023, High Noon sold over 550 MILLION cans.
That's more than 1 can per American!
Absolutely absurd volume.
The scale of the alcohol business blows my mind.
During prohibition in the 1920's, the US government intentionally poisoned thousands of liters of alcohol, ultimately killing thousands of people.
Here's the wild, scary, little-known story 👇
Many people think the alcohol industry is in a death spiral.
They’re all wrong.
Here are some of my semi-controversial thoughts as a professional investor in the space:
An Ironman is one of the hardest races known to man.
2.4 mile swim, 116 mile bike, followed by a marathon.
I did my first one last year and beat my goal time by an hour.
A few of the lessons I learned through training and pushing myself further than I thought possible 👇
Somebody needs to start a gym built for the psychos that like training when it’s dark out.
I’ll invest and be the first customer.
I nominate
@zachpogrob
The illusion of choice about what you're drinking:
How the booze industry tricks you into thinking you’re choosing from thousands of options when you’re really not…
👇
LVMH has quietly built themselves a multi-billion dollar real estate empire.
The largest luxury conglomerate in the world has been buying up prime buildings and land in iconic locations across the world.
Some details on their strategy:
@vibhu
My take: DTC shouldn’t be considered so one dimensionally. It’s most effective in serving as a “canary in a cole mine” to build community , traction, brand awareness, and understanding of consumer before scaling into traditional retail and distro. That’s where the magic is IMO
@heyalexfriedman
@Equinox
That might be crazier. I almost can’t even process that.
I thought they were built for startups.
No startup stops working at 5pm every day
Mezcal is one of the fastest-growing spirits in the world.
But what actually constitutes a "mezcal"?
The answer should be simple but it's actually riddled with complexity and bureaucracy.
Here's a quick breakdown 👇
@JoePompliano
I actually think it’ll help them long run. Viral moments and photos taken and shared on the course that otherwise probably wouldn’t be.
But the eye is weird lol
Looking for a killer graphic designer for a fund deck. Preferably somebody who has worked with funds before, but open to anyone who is a killer.
All recs welcome!
@JoePompliano
@LewisHamilton
Big fan of Lewis. I work in the booze industry and predict they’ll pivot to an alcohol version within 24 months. Could be wrong… just my guess
The alcohol industry is one of the most lucrative and powerful industries in America.
Hundreds of billions of dollars move through the system each year...
But the industry is veiled in secrecy and few understand how it really works.
Here's a quick overview👇
@andruyeung
It may seem that way in coastal elite cities and health-focused communities but the reality is that it’s just a very loud minority of people… majority of America is still drinking a ton
@SahilBloom
I love this study.
Imagine sitting in the class thinking you nailed it and then sitting through a recruiting presentation while realizing another team crushed you 😂
Hi I'm Noah and I run a fund called
@topshelfvc
. We invest explicitly in the alcohol industry.
Always looking to meet amazing people in the booze business.
If there's anyone I need to meet/needs to meet me, please tag them!
🙏🥂🥃🍷🍻🙏
Bernard - 75 years old and one of the world's richest men- has been laying the foundation for his succession with increased intensity the last few years.
He has five children and has been installing all of them at increasingly senior positions throughout the LVMH empire.
Frédéric graduated from a top French engineering school- the same one his father went to.
He was also recently named CEO of LVMH watches, after spending some time as CEO of Tag Heuer.
This marks 3 fairly quick promotions in a row.
@andruyeung
Mostly tech bubble.
Alcohol sales spiked like crazy during COVID.
They’re normalizing now, but still higher than pre COVID.
Booze isn’t going anywhere
@M___Morgenstern
Lower west side highway and Central Park are undefeated when weather is nice IMO
But Brickell is indeed a vibe… probably best when nyc weather sucks
He recently raised the CEO age limit for LVMH to 80, so he's likely sticking around for at least a few more years, but change is imminent.
This move for 29-year-old Frédéric is the latest in a slew of his promotions and marks a particularly quick rise within the organization.
LVMH is a behemoth of a business on every level.
Bernard has masterfully built it from a $1.2 billion valuation in 1987, to the nearly $500 billion empire it is today largely through a brilliant M&A strategy.
They've expanded far beyond their original position as a small luxury house to build a sweeping holding company that touches just about anything related to a luxury experience.
They've even begun scooping up iconic real estate across the world.
LVMH has quietly built themselves a multi-billion dollar real estate empire.
The largest luxury conglomerate in the world has been buying up prime buildings and land in iconic locations across the world.
Some details on their strategy:
BIG news for the beer & alcohol industry:
Wine giant Gallo is entering the beer space through a strategic investment in Montucky Cold Snacks.
Details on the investment & why it's a big deal for the broader alcohol industry:
Having friends that push and encourage you is one of the most powerful things in the world.
I'm on the flight back to NYC after a long week.
Lot of good stuff this week, but I'm also exhausted and in my head/a bit discouraged.
This snapped me right out of it.
Grateful.
Point 1. Alcohol is a net positive for society
Humans are social creatures that need connection to thrive.
We are wired to want to spend time with others and feel real social connection with them.
Interesting (and subtly savage) move by Bernard Arnault:
The LVMH Chairman and richest man in the world, just bought shares in rival company Richemont.
Some quick details:
Point 4. Cannabis beverages WILL have a real place/effect on the industry and have huge upside
I think the largest market for cannabis in the US will actually end up being THC-infused beverages (not smoking/vaping/edibles).
Uncharted 2024 is coming this June.
Uncharted is a summit bringing together 500 of the world's best entrepreneurs, investors, and creatives for a day of content, connections, and powerful conversations.
Some quick history + how you can apply to attend:
@ellenhuet
@technology
I wasn’t gonna go this year but this article may have just changed my mind.
This kind of reset is exactly what BM needs.
I think this might end up being the best year in a while
George Clooney is one of the most successful actors of all time.
But despite being a bankable movie star, most of his wealth doesn't come from movies...
It comes from tequila.
Here's the wild story of how Clooney struck gold with Casamigos 👇
Point 3. The non-alc industry will be much smaller than many are projecting
I'm talking specifically about beverages intended to taste/smell exactly like full strength spirits/beer/wine, just without the alcohol.
I just don't see the market being as big as many expect here.
I think alcohol is one of the most proven and ubiquitous ways of bringing people together right up there with religion, sports, patriotism, etc.
There are few, if any, things are widely available and accessible that bring people together like alcohol.
UNCHARTED 2024
Still buzzing from the third annual Uncharted Summit.
Over 600 of the world’s best founders, funders, creatives and beyond together for a day of content & connections.
What a powerful day and celebration of entrepreneurship 🙏
More from Uncharted very soon…
This comes on the heels of him being appointed to LVMH board in April with 32 year old brother Alexandre, joining their older siblings Delphine and Antoine.
Bernard hasn't given any firm details on which of his children specifically will end up taking the reigns.
In 2017, spirits giant Diageo acquired Casamigos from George Clooney for $1 billion.
At the time, the brand was selling about 1.2 million bottles per year.
In 2024, they'll sell over 40 million bottles.
40X in 7 years and still going.
Hell of a deal for everyone involved 🥂
A ideal, beautiful Saturday in NYC:
Morning coffee walk with the GF.
Work outside for a few hours and finalize an LP update.
Quick workout and sauna session.
Knicks game.
Life is good 🫶
There's one metric in CPG that matters more than anything.
But most brands overlook it and optimize for the wrong things.
What it is (and why it's everything):
Prediction for CPG:
The small coalition of acquirers will make considerable moves this year to snatch up the new generation of winning brands.
I believe:
Ollipop
Poppi
Prime
All get acquired in the next 12-18 months.
I know from first-hand experience that there can be many downsides to alcohol. I'll never deny that.
But I believe that the social benefits and ability to bring people together does more harm than good on a net basis.
@JoePompliano
@Dsuds24
Somehow I doubt that NFL is gonna get in trouble with the law for a Black Friday football game running 20 mins late.
80% of the people who can get them in trouble will probably be watching 😂
So anytime you've ever purchased booze, you've never actually purchased it from the company who made it- not even when you buy it online. That's because you're legally not allowed to buy it from the manufacturer... it MUST go through the three-tier system.
@unusual_whales
Prediction:
NYTimes sells multiple six figures of tickets on anger/hype for SBF and then rug pulls everyone by “cancelling” him at the last min. Tix non-refundable
@SahilBloom
Another good one:
Worrying too much about what other people think.
I’m working hard to free myself if this weight as much as possible. It’s amazing how much it can hold us back…
In 2023, Tito's Vodka sold ~140 MILLION bottles.
That's .41 bottles per American!
That is absolutely absurd volume.
The scale of the alcohol business is wild.
Hot take:
80% of people loudly publicly declaring that they've stopped drinking are:
1) already drinking again or
2) will be back to drinking again soon
Whether or not you like it, booze ain't going anywhere.
Do hard things with people that motivate you ✊
I did a beautifully dark and painful half marathon today.
Haven’t done much long running recently.
But
@SahilBloom
asked me and
@kurtisjlin
to join him and we couldn’t turn down the challenge.
The race was brutal. I was
I raised my first fund when I was 27.
Most people told me I would fail, but that didn't stop me.
The 5 most important things I learned raising my first fund:
This three tier system was originally intended to prevent "disorderly marketing conditions" that might arise from alcohol manufacturers and retailers collaborating too closely (imagine if Budweiser owned all the bars... not great for competition).
@tobi
@lessin
@typesfast
What a world that what might have been several rounds of interviews and articles was condensed to 3 tweets in an hour. Incredible.
Congrats to all 🙏
But against a back drop of several recent promotions for Frederic, plus the fact that he's the second-youngest, this promotion feels particularly meaningful.
Wall Street, and all of LVMH's stakeholders, are watching the entire situation closely.
My perhaps somewhat controversial thoughts on the non-alcoholic beverage market:
I think it's an interesting market, and I think it will continue to grow.
But I just don't think it's nearly as big as many of the articles, media coverage, and pitch decks I'm seeing are
The best performing stock of the last 5 years?
Celsius Holdings.
Best performing stock of the last 30 years?
Monster Energy.
Beverage is a MASSIVE business.
Hype cycles come and go; people always drink!
This is one of the many reasons I started
@topshelfvc
to capitalize on the opportunity within the space and find the next Casamigos.
Follow me for more breakdowns on the beverage alcohol industry and insights into running the industry's newest fund.
Uncharted Summit 2023 🙏
What a day! Thank you to the 600+ of the world’s best founders, funders, creatives and beyond who came out to the second annual summit. Uncharted started as an intimate dinner series
@realmichaelloeb
and I started hosting together in late 2021…
The three-tier system mandates that the manufacturer of any alcohol product MUST sell their product to an independently licensed wholesaler, who can sell the product to a licensed retailer, who can THEN sell it to you.
It's still unclear which of his 5 children are the actual front runner, but Frederic's momentum seems to have real weight.
The next few years will be a pivotal and fascinating time for the organization (and the family)!
Will be watching closely to see how it plays out!