Mr. Nick Beaudrot
@nbeaudrot
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Tolerating our gerontocracy. Dad. Chart and Map enthusiast. Fall Out Boy apologist. Bad opinions are my own, good ones are my employer's.
Seattle, WA
Joined June 2008
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Here's my take on the latest polls:
It's Gonna Be A Close One.
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We're talking about Biden being old because he
- is presiding over an economic boom
- hasn't told anyone to drink bleach
- doesn't have Trump or even Bill Clinton levels of corruption/greasiness
- isn't hornyposting from the Oval Office
Kind of the only thing left to say...
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"I never thought the leopard would eat MY face", said the crank libertarian venture capitalists who put his money in the Bank of Face Eating Leopards
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The IVF thing is not going away, Republicans can say all they want but I think everyone understands the score on this issue.
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Like how is this supposed to work? The odds that Trump can adhere to pretrial conditions meant to ensure the integrity of the trial are zero.
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Yes because Trump will use a Sharpie to write "Russia" over eastern Ukraine.
Big if true: GOP Rep. Troy Nehls says he’s a hard no on Ukraine aid because it’s unnecessary. “When Donald Trump wins, Putin’s leavin. Putin’s leavin Ukraine.”
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What is Bank of America's plan to recoup their investment in Twitter dot com?
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The thing about this cope is that we aren't getting many insane outliers in the other direction.
You'd hope to see things like Biden +4 in Georgia or +8 in Pennsylvania every once in a while.
Again, the NYT/Siena Nevada poll has Biden losing Clark County by 8 points. That is not going to happen. Insane that outlier numbers are driving so much coverage.
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@chrislhayes
I can't tell TikTok's influence, but yeah it's probably nudging people in a right wing (and more specifically low social trust) direction.
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It's sorta weird that Nixon's OLC concluded that the President can't pardon himself, but everyone is just assuming it'll be the very first thing Trump does.
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I am but a simple country lawyer, but I think the best way to defeat Donald Trump in an election is to say "Donald Trump is an unpopular loser obsessed with the 2020 election so even if you like what he stands for voting for him doesn't help"
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Tariffs imposed by executive fiat give the executive lots of opportunities to accept bribes in exchange for lowering tariffs on specific goods or even specific companies.
3.) The IRS isn't perfect (i.e. racial disparities in audits), but I'm confident it doesn't selectively enforce tax law to benefit the President's political supporters. Switching from income taxes to tariffs as revenue source would grant Trump far more control over who pays taxes
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Stop trying to do Zoom school. Just stop it.
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Keep in mind this is a bill that (1) everyone knows is DOA, and (2) would only extend the debt limit enough to last a month or two.
It's a total joke message bill, and McCarthy can't get it passed!
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As with sports, an increasing percentage of the market for polls and forecasting is just straight up gambling.
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The savvy take is that Trump has a good political antenna on abortion, but "I ended Roe vs Wade" is both bad policy and bad politics!
Trump just now in Dubuque, Iowa:
"We ended Roe v. Wade...52 years they fought & they fought hard...they couldn't get the job done. I got the job done. I got it done."
"Now the pro-life community has tremendous negotiating power. You had none..."
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When Republicans hold power, they use it to cut taxes for rich people and restrict abortion rights.
We know this because it's what happens at the state level, and it's what happened when Donald Trump was President.
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@chrislhayes
You're about to get roasted by midwesterners ...
But at a minimum no households need _two_ EVs with ranges that long.
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Quit your job and go work for TMZ or a Hollywood trade magazine.
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If Trump loses the presidency he should just run for Mayor of NYC.
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Folks, there are books about this and everything. The Internet is built for delivering slow downloads without fixed deadlines or very short messages quickly. live video is neither of those.
@nbeaudrot
@chrislhayes
Sound like a Boomer. Can't wait till y'all are gone and off Earth, but TV is old. It's a dinosaur, like you, and the internet is future.
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@BusinessmanLego
90% chance this is staffer driven, but that also means (1) he has staffers who want to make 14/88 shitposts, and (2) he doesn't have process controls in place to stop that.
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If Team Biden wants last minute SOTU ideas:
* Boomer Corps: pay the seniors who have left the labor force to go tutor elementary and middle schoolers in reading and math
* A federal law banning districts from counting Zoom school on snow days as instructional time
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Utterly noncontroversial nominees to non-ideological government positions are being subject to cloture votes for no other reason than to waste Senate floor time.
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Jingles are an underrated campaign tactic, this rips.
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@chrislhayes
Plus it's an open invitation to bribe him to get your company's tariffs lowered!
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@SpecialPuppy1
1. Universal free school lunch
2. Let the Trump tax cuts expire, use the money to enact a permanent monthly CTC and extend the ACA subsidies.
3. Vibe.
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@teddyschleifer
@Bencjacobs
Can you refresh my memory, does Trump have a history of fraudulently exaggerating his finances?
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The school districts are lying to themselves that this is free and appropriate public education. Nobody learns anything and the parents can't realistically work while it's happening.
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"Dems should replace Biden but can't because the party has decayed" is literally "faculty lounge politics". Please point to the time in US history where it was possible to an incumbent president *without* destabilizing the electoral situation.
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I feel like all the "wow Walz is a refreshing pick" takes have erased the public's view of Joe Biden, 2008-2016.
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Merchan should at a bare minimum *threaten* to put Johnson, Vance, Tuberville, Trump's lawyers, under oath in an evidentiary hearing on whether there was any coordination here.
But he should probably go do it!
New today: Trump wanted to launder his contempt of court through Republicans not covered by Merchan’s gag order, while hiding evidence that he was “directing” their comments—conduct also prohibited by the order. But he got caught.
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@JoePostingg
"socially conservative non-white voters voting D because racism" also underrepresented, but less so.
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@BobbyBigWheel
hospital debt is pretty fake now (credit unions have agreed to ignore it, basically)
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@chrislhayes
How much of this is just other attacks (too corrupt, to culturally liberal, too gaffe prone) falling flat?
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At the time this was tweeted, the Trump trial was the A1 story on ABC's website. NBC had Johnson at Columbia; CBS had Biden signing the foreign aid package; NYT had SCOTUS abortion case hearings; CNN also had Johnson at Columbia.
On a day where the trial isn't in session.
Democrats had hoped this would be the Summer of Trump trials. Will it become the Summer of Protests instead?
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@chrislhayes
It's also amusing he doesn't understand that DoD saying "invading Iran will cost $10 trillion and 30,000 American soldiers will die" is the DoD saying they ***don't*** want to invade Iran.
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This gets as something much bigger ... why did the Senate stop launching long-lived investigations? It was such a big thing for a while (Iran-Contra, whateever Al d'Amato was made about that day), etc.
NEWS: Rep Jamie Raskin has been making the case to Senate Dems that they consider using their subpoena power to continue his investigation into Trump's millions in profits from foreign governments while in office.
Why aren't Senate Dems pursuing this? 1/
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There were like 50 fake "Obama's Katrina"s and then Trump actually had one in his first year.
January 6th was exceptionally bad— and it has obsured the fact that the rest of Trump’s presidency was far less appcalyptic than our emotions suggested it would be. I’ll be dunked on for saying this (“oh, if you exclude the coup, it was basically okay!”) but it’s true.
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Haley is getting 21%.
Someone please tell me which party is in disarray.
With about half of the vote in from Washington, the Uncommitted vote in the Democratic Primary is just shy of 9%. There wasn't any 2012 contest here so there's no good comparison
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News consumption is down which means Dems really have to collect the greatest hits (and make them relevant to people's lives) in the fall.
This is maddening: New polling conducted by Dems finds that an alarmingly small percentage of voters surveyed are familiar with Trump's most blatant authoritarian threats, such as his "dictator" quote.
This is bad. But it's also an opportunity. 1/
Link:
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@chrislhayes
it's so depressing that could have been a big rah rah moment and it just wasn't.
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We are going to meme the "go on hot ones" thing into existence or die trying.
@nbeaudrot
Harris and/or the eventual veep should do a little bit more elevated, for sure try and do hot ones
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Now Mr Tate, I just have one last question. That slice of pizza in that video looks delicious. I reckon I'd like to try some. Can you tell the court where you ordered it from?
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This was really good!
The
#WITHpod
tour w/
@chrislhayes
kicked off with former federal prosecutors and co-hosts of MSNBC’s “Prosecuting Donald Trump” podcast,
@AWeissmann_
& Mary McCord, in Austin
Download “Why Is This Happening?” wherever you get your podcasts.
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@chrislhayes
I've been trying to dig up that 2016-17 piece from David Frum about "so you want to take a job in the Trump administration -- are you willing to go to jail for him? Because you might." and not having any luck.
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@joshtpm
(1) Bankruptcy is way less favorable to debtors.
(2) The 30 year fixed only really exists in the US because of massive government intervention.
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@mattyglesias
This map (or the same thing but also losing Wisconsin) isn't crazy.
I also think Democrats should see if Lisa Murkowski would endorse Harris, send Tim Walz to Alaska, run some ads (it's cheap and most of the population lives in Anchorage/Fairbanks) etc.
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@ryxcommar
My guess is a lot of "solutions engineers" -- people who buy the product thinking it will solve all their problems and then it turns out they need help with implementation.
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You went to five guys so we already know you're not price sensitive, who cares.
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(The GOP attacks on Clinton corruption were always overstated, but he wasn't like that cleanest politician ever, and he was followed by two who ran pretty tight ships).
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It happened after everyone on the East Coast went to bed, but the more moderate/centrist candidate is currently leading in all 7 Seattle City Council races that were on the ballot. (via
@ericacbarnett
)
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@chrislhayes
Activities being pushed out of schools is bad for many reasons, but "parent time/convenience" is underdiscussed as one of them.
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@ArmandDoma
The Democratic version probably has some poison pill like $15/hour or bringing the tipped employee minimum wage in line with everybody else.
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@conorsen
Imagine a policymaker saying "I'd prefer a decade of underemployment to 18 months of mid single digit inflation"
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If you went back to 2007 and told everyone "teens are drinking and having sex less", policymakers and pundits would be ecstatic.
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A reminder that Pennsylvania Republicans have deliberately refused to allow ballots to be counted the way they're counted Florida, North Carolina, etc., so that the results are more chaotic.
@JoeNC05
As of Wednesday at 9 am EST it was still only Fetterman+2.5 when he won by 4.9 in the end.
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@far33d
If Engineers made all the decisions, you would have to graduate from Hogwarts in order to use any product.
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@broderick
@xenocryptsite
I was today years old when I learned that "Fake TED Talk" was a thing! It makes sense though.
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Hopefully some cracker-jack lawyers at the Ag department and Office of Legal Counsel are finding a way to mail grocery store gift cards to every American as an "official act".
If the Republican justices invent any level of “official acts immunity” for the transparent purpose of protecting Trump, the only acceptable position for Biden to take is that sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander. He should put them on notice now.
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@chrislhayes
The Internet is very much not built for this. TV - broadcast and cable - is!
I'm very mad about this apparently.
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How much jury pool tainting and witness tampering can Trump get away with before the prosecution files a motion to have him detained pre-trial?
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Alternative teacher prep pathways. YES. In addition to addressing teacher shortages, this would help with the most important crisis to Twitter: too many broke humanities grad students.
You finished a history PhD and taught college freshman? Go teach high school seniors!
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@chrislhayes
wait what's the point of living in NYC if your kids can't take transit?
(there are 6th graders who walk themselves home after Math Club at 5:15)
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@janecoaston
This photo of one of her pitstops. Imagine feeling like this and saying "yep, another couple of weeks of this. Let's do it."
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The Floor Action Response Team ("FART")
Newsy: House Freedom Caucus members are signing up to take shifts to guard the House floor in order to prevent resolutions they’d consider unsavory from slipping through that could curb their power, per two R sources.
This Floor Action Response Team (“FART”) aims to guard
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Do the five paragraph essay haters have some proposal to get the median ... I'll be generous ... _college bound_ high school student to spit out something _more_ cohesive?
ChatGPT is a gift to writing pedagogy: its perfect imitation of the 5-paragraph high school essay reveals the complete worthlessness & intellectual vacuity of this inane, disciplinary ritual exercise.
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I guess this is the simpler out card for Trump, instead of a self-pardon.
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@_jameshatfield_
@DKThomp
@arindube
The title of the chart is "real hourly wages". "Real" means "adjusted for inflation".
The chart sets all lines to 1.0 at whatever their actual value was in January 2020. Mr. Thompson's description of the chart is accurate -- everyone's wages are rising, poor people's the most.
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If America had a decent second-tier basketball league with salaries in the $150-500K range, we wouldn't have to speculate about Markquis Nowell's chances of having a good summer league performance and earning a roster spot.
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3 out of 4* is pretty good, but I think red state Dems probably need some way to clearly signal affinity with right-leaning vibes -- policing, patriotism, religiosity.
Colin Allred tells me he'll make a big pitch to rural voters in taking on Ted Cruz:
*GOP blocked Medicaid expansion
*Rural hospitals in trouble
*Teacher shortages at rural schools
*Cruz helped Trump on 1/6 (rare for Ds to say this in red areas!)
Listen👇
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As a lib I will be very owned if Republicans force Joe Biden to enact permitting reform in exchange for raising the debt ceiling.
NEW: House GOP eyes a new demand in debt talks - energy permitting
Palmer: "I think permitting’s got to be part of the debt limit discussion"
W/
@jordainc
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He does local media! National media is mostly in the entertainment business. I'm sorry you're not getting more
#content
.
"It’s a bit of a mystery why Walz has largely stopped doing national media, especially given how effective he was over the summer. The campaign seems to have trapped him in the same hyper-protective Bubble Wrap it has placed around Harris..."
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@ImNotOwned
One of the hardest things about the Trump years was trying to game out what could actually be operationalized. Do not want to go back to that.
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@JoePostingg
I absolutely must have a close personal relationship with the office that I send a HIPPA-compliant message every 30 days asking for a Ritalin refill.
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I was just looking for generic minimum wage tweets from this guy, but it turns out dunking on "the economy is bad because of the price of lunch" is like shooting fish in a barrel.
Can’t imagine why people think this isn’t a great economy. Lunch for three at McDonald’s: $44!!
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The kids don't pay attention.
Poor students don't have suitable home internet connections.
The telco infrastructure can't actually handle it.
Just stop!
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@csilverandgold
There was some reporting on this ... the Trump campaign's plan is
1. Hold NC
2. Flip GA and PA
That's it. They are not trying for any other paths to victory.
It seems like the wrong idea to me! It might not matter BC the odds PA is the tipping point state are so high.
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