Sebastian
@mrcaseb
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Engineer doing #RStats and the #nflverse. Co-Creator and maintainer of @nflfastR, @Open_Source_FB, @nflseedR, #nflreadr,#nflplotR. Herbert is my QB
Joined December 2019
The #NFLPreseason is in the books and we are only 10 days away form the #NFL 2024 season opener. I looked at the betting markets and determined the implied probabilities of season outcomes, team ratings and strength of schedule. Can't wait for regular season football!
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Today's loss by the #Chiefs to the #Bills completed the 2024 Circle of Parity! Inspired by @FieldYates, who has posted circles in previous years, I have created a possible circle (there might be more).
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I used the Vegas win totals by @DKSportsbook as well as the projected total of 11 wins for the Packers by @rjwhite1 to compute the 2021 strength of schedule for each team based on the projected wins of their opponents as of now
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A while ago, @LukeBraunNFL posted a chart showing Vikings point differential by game minute. I "zoomed in" a little and computed it by game second for all teams. There is so much to see in this chart, I love it. Data: #nflverse
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.@DKSportsbook released early NFL win totals. I put them together with the division, conference, and Super Bowl futures.
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Ever tried to get historical data of closing lines and odds for NFL games? Well, today might be a good day. I managed to get spreads, totals and money lines as well as odds from up to 27 sports books. Enjoy!.
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Overthecap flipped the switch to 53 player rosters and I summarized their cap texture breakdowns. I like this viz because it shows how teams spread their money. The viz is sorted by cap space.
Salary cap space update for today.
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I have simulated the remainder of the #NFL season for 50k times and looked for the most likely Wildcard rounds. The AFC Wildcard round could be a lot of fun! .Although I have Kansas City most likely to win the AFC no. 1 seed, they are the no. 2 seed in the most likely wc rounds.
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I used the Vegas win totals by @DKSportsbook as well as an estimated 9.5 win total for the Browns to compute the 2022 strength of schedule for each team based on the projected wins of their opponents as of today.
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Some wild point differentials this season:. 1.) The +64 point differential of the 10-1 Eagles is the second lowest point differential of all 10-1 teams in the SB era. (and last year's Eagles rank 6th in this table!)
Eagles have very few convincing wins (predictive of team strength going forward). What's remarkable is the Cowboys having a 32-point loss to the 49ers and still having a better point differential than SF (or anyone else)
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#NFLSchedule2023 is out! Let's have a look at each team's schedule and the strength of their opponents measured in predicted wins through Vegas win totals. Red lines represent team win total. #nflverse
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Does unit investment pay off? Here is how much NFL teams spend on their units in 2024 vs. their respective PFF grades through week 9. (You don't want your team in the red area which means "expensive and below average")
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I finally found the time to get the historic lines and odds of college football for #bettingsports and #GamblingTwitter. More than 1 million lines and odds of more than 13 thousand games since 2006. This is massive.
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### Links to my work/projects ###. — 🏈 nflfastR . — 🏈 Open Source Football. — 🏈 nflfastR roster. — 🏈 Historic Lines and Next Gen Stats. — 💻 personalr .
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Implied win total of each team's opponents on a weekly base using @DKSportsbook odds. Note: .-- Split by conference.-- Packers still with 11 implied wins using multiple sources.-- Opponents above red line are expected to win more games than the team itself.
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I looked at the betting markets and determined the implied probability of winning the Division, Conference and Super Bowl. In addition, the win totals and (based on the spreads of all games) the team ratings.
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A year ago, on the first NFL Sunday of the season, I was just some random guy who was into football. One year later, I‘m still a random guy but feel responsible for providing play by play data to the entire analytics community. But still I am really up for it!.
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Draft comes closer so here is what the market thinks who will be drafted at picks 1-10. Percentages are the vig removed probabilities according to @DKSportsbook that a player will be picked at the corresponding position. Data as of today and subject to change. #nflverse
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Seeing all those EPA/Play Charts by @benbbaldwin I was wondering about special teams because in the tight games especially in playoffs many TV experts point on their importance. So I used some functions by @LeeSharpeNFL and of course Data by @nflscrapR and checked EPA/Play.
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The NFL #BigDataBowl 2025 has started! This year with pre-snap data!. "This year's competition turns to a new type of data -- what happens before the snap -- to generate creative insights and actionable predictions into what the offense or defense does after the snap.".
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These drive charts are probably finding their way to rbsdm dot com soon. It's easier to read when split up in two separate charts for each team. This version also includes the location of each play within a drive as well as a scoring summary. Any type of criticism is appreciated
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@benbbaldwin I was curious what there best point differential has been compared to all other teams and well.
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Less than 1 week until #NFLDraft2023! So here is what the market thinks who will be drafted at picks 1-10. Percentages are the vig removed probabilities according to @DKSportsbook that a player will be picked at the corresponding position. Data as of today and subject to change.
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I am currently working on high efficient algorithms for NFL conference tiebreakers in data.table and it’s probably the hardest problem I have ever worked on. It’s almost done and will be part of nflseedR 2.0.Probably my final big contribution to the nflverse.
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The first thing I did in NFL analytics about 2 years ago was special teams EPA plots. I forgot that completely until I saw that @EthanCDouglas' DPR also uses special teams performance so I decided to rebuild the EPA plots with #nflverse. Here's special teams performace by week 5
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Cooper Kupp's 3.12 Yards per Route Run in the 2021 regular season rank 4th out of 2750 eligible receiver seasons since 2006, per PFF. He is tied with 2016 Julio and 2019 Kittle. This is definitely a historical performance. Also: Julio Jones 3 times in the top-10!
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It looks like playing in the AFC East helps your Point Differential
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We are close to the #NFLSchedule2023 release. So I used the Vegas win totals by @DKSportsbook to compute the 2023 strength of schedule for each team based on the projected wins of their opponents as of today.
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Lot's of dead money for the Bears. Let's look at current dead doney data provided by Over the Cap. The #Seahawks and the #Bears take more dead money from a single player than 29 other teams in total!.(Note: these numbers are subject to change in the near future. I'll update)
If return is a 2nd and 6th, would hope Bears aren’t retaining salary. $24M dead cap for the Bears I believe is the biggest number for a non-QB in NFL history. Brandin Cooks I think was just below.
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For most people this might be a minor news but believe me when I tell you this is huge! We've completely overhauled the entire code base and made a ton of minor tweaks to make this happen. @nflfastR is on #CRAN!.
We are happy to announce that @nflfastR is now on CRAN!. 🏈🏈 ⌨️⌨️ 💯💯. That means that the package can be installed by simply running install.packages("nflfastR") and you're good to go!.
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Here are all regular season point differentials of each team in the Super Bowl era. Logos mark the average point differential.
Both the #Bills and the #Buccaneers recorded their best point differential in the Super Bowl Era in this past regular season!
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I looked at series conversion rates of the 4 championship teams over the course of the season. It can be clearly seen, that the Chiefs offense is on fire again.
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I recommend any R user out there to think about building a personal package which loads all packages you are typically using as well as some helpers. It is a huge simplification of work when you can load everything you need with a single call.
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Lots of line movement today. So here is what the market thinks who will be drafted at picks 1-10. Percentages are the vig removed probabilities according to @DKSportsbook that a player will be picked at the corresponding position. Data as of today and subject to change.
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Last year, I started replacing the NFL standings calculation in @nflseedR with high efficient code in data.table. The implementation of tiebreakers has caused a few headaches and my plan was actually to write the season simulation in data.table as well, but the development came
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Here is your favorite team's schedule along with strength of opponents calculated with look-ahead spread lines of all games of the 2024 season.
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I have updated the historical NFL opening and closing lines and odds with the complete 2020 season for #bettingsports and #GamblingTwitter! .Spread the news and enjoy the data which is now live on my GitHub:
Ever tried to get historical data of closing lines and odds for NFL games? Well, today might be a good day. I managed to get spreads, totals and money lines as well as odds from up to 27 sports books. Enjoy!.
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🚨🚨 .I am happy to announce that version 1.0.0 of thenext #nflverse #rstats package 📦 #nflplotR is now available on CRAN!.🚨🚨.`install.packages("nflplotR")`.
** ❗ NEW from #nflverse ❗ **. Have you ever wanted to do the following?.--> Transparent logos.--> Black & white logos.--> Logos in axis labels. INTRODUCING: nflplotR by @mrcaseb, an R package for easily making these plots. 📊
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Looking at PFF's Big Time Throw and Turnover Worthy Play data and I noticed that Russell and Kyler seem to be *good* this year. So I compared their numbers to all QBs since 2006. Both, Kyler and Russell, are doing very well this year (so far)! .Also sorry Jimmy G and Niners Fans
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A few weeks ago I was asked to help write a parser for the freely available Statsbomb tracking data. Basically, it's about getting the data into the form that users are used to from the Big Data Bowl tracking data. I have published the code in a gist.
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12 weeks into the season, I have computed pythagorean expectations based on @fboutsiders adjusted pythagorean theorem and compared them to the actual wins of each team. The table is sorted by expected wins based on points scored and points allowed. Data: #nflverse
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When I see how many people send @benbbaldwin and me questions about @nflfastR , I'm very glad that so many are using it. Therefore we have decided to create a central place for questions and discussions. Join our new Discord server on
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This tweet is almost certainly a joke, but I would still like to point out a recurring problem. The definition of “garbage time” via win probability is very dangerous. The 14%-86% range chosen here removes nearly half (147 out of 303) of all Vikings offensive snaps!.
Sam Darnold through 5 weeks in non garbage time (when win probability is between 14-86%). #1 raw EPA/play.#1 adjusted EPA/play.#1 composite EPA+CPOE score.#1 completion % above expected
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Since offenses like the Chiefs, Dolphins or Niners dominate especially in the 2nd quarter, I looked at how many points NFL teams score on average per quarter. Why of all teams do the Bills score the most points in the 4th quarter? Because they need it!
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@benbbaldwin The really important question: why doesn't anyone actually care that this only adds up to 48?.
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@adrianbb89 Fotograf*in hat einen sehr guten Job gemacht, konnte Krögers Schuh Game aber auch nicht mehr retten.
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Both the #Bills and the #Buccaneers recorded their best point differential in the Super Bowl Era in this past regular season!
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I have summarised the information by @MySportsUpdate on the current status of HC and GM interviews.
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I just realized that we missed the 1st birthday of @nflfastR .About 12 months of ongoing development and we are not done yet. But we have reached a very good and stable version and infrastructure.
INTRODUCING: @nflfastR, an R package for scraping NFL data faster ⚡. 🏈 Play-by-play of all NFL games going back to 2000.🏈 Includes Completion Probability and CPOE going back to 2006.🏈 Fast functions for scraping team rosters and highlight videos.
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I started publishing the code for my NFL analysis. There will be updates progressively, so stay tuned. And feel free to spread the news!.
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@benbbaldwin This is one of my favorite tweets over the last 18 months. I am literally laughing every time I see it.
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I am currently working on some cool dataviz helpers for ggplot2 in a new #nflverse package that will be announced soon. Just put a variable with NFL team abbreviations in your plotting data and the new scales and themes activate team colors and logos as axis labels.
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First time #TidyTuesday on Freedom in the World using data from @freedomhouse and @UN via @CheibSilva. An animation along 26 years. Code: #DataVisualization #DataViz #RStats
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Update to my NFL betting data: .many people asked for it so I have added opening lines (where possible). Earlier seasons are missing the opening lines a lot but the recent seasons should be complete. Data is now live on GitHub, enjoy!.
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After trading #MattRyan and #DeshaunWatson, the #Falcons and #Texans take the most dead money in the upcoming NFL season, per Over the Cap. Ryan's cap number in Atlanta's books: $40,525,000
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I am working on a way to visualize drives for Would love to get critique for this first draft. We'll keep a table with information like # of plays or time of possession. I just wanted to have a viz that helps understanding how an offense moved the ball.
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How often does an offense have to play 3rd down and how many yards to they need for a new 1st down on average?
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After the Julio Jones trade: implied win total of each team's opponents on a weekly base using @DKSportsbook odds. Note: .-- Split by conference, sorted by division.-- Packers with 11 implied wins using multiple sources.-- Opponents above red line expected to win more games
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Finally got around and automated Next Gen Stats data updates on my GitHub. Weekly and overall passing, receiving and rushing stats from 2016 up to today available as .rds and .csv.gz. Updates every night.
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How the market (in this case @DKSportsbook) reacted to the Russell Wilson trade to the #DenverBroncos. The Broncos' win probability has more than doubled.
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Almost halfway through the season, I simulated the remainder of the season 50k times. In the AFC, 3 divisions are virtually decided. And if the Bills want a shot at the #1 seed, they have to beat the Chiefs at home in W11. Look at the Lions with the highest SB win rate!
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Update on the nflfastR pbp data:.It's up and running, so that's good news. However, at the moment it looks like some things have changed in the underlying data that break some of our logic. 1/2.
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