Micah Cohen
@micahcohen
Followers
64K
Following
2K
Media
1K
Statuses
8K
Politics Editor @AppleNews. Formerly Managing Editor @fivethirtyeight at @abcnews and @espn. Formerly formerly reporting/editing/getting coffee @nytimes.
New York
Joined April 2010
We did it!!!! 🤗🤗🤗. (Also, @realDonaldTrump, @FiveThirtyEight is the number of votes in the Electoral College — it’s a pretty important number if you, for example, were running for president or something like that.).
72
473
4K
My colleagues @FiveThirtyEight worked smartly, tirelessly and just . they did a LOT of work . to cover this election. More to come, but could not be prouder — including of the pieces leading the site right now. Please read.
93
86
3K
Delaying the Kavanaugh vote by a week means one more week for polls to come in, and the polling trend isn't great:.
301
922
2K
I am soooo curious about the edit at 1:28.
50
160
2K
This is a brutal loss for FiveThirtyEight. And if you’re an editor, you should be spending the next few days trying to find a way to work with Clare.
So, I got laid off late last week as part of the ABC News layoffs. I won’t lie, it was a bit of a surprise, but if anything 2020 has been perspective-setting & I’m grateful for the past 5 years, if a little sad. So. onward. Some of my best work follows. (Hi, editors!) 1/.
53
72
2K
@NateSilver538 I beg to differ. Here is the custom built, real-time election night forecast needle that @stephrooster and I are using:
37
201
2K
fwiw, both these things can be true:.1. The allegations against Franken are VERY different from the allegations against Moore.2. Democrats standing by Franken are hypocrites.
75
337
2K
🚨🚨🚨 OMG BIDEN +17 IN WISCONSIN!?!?!?!? 🚨🚨🚨. This is how polling works. You conduct the poll, make sure your methods are sound, and the result is the result. Releasing "weird" results is the sign of an honest pollster.
81
138
1K
.@NateSilver538 out-loud in the @FiveThirtyEight office: "Here's what i think . this is bad for Trump.". [laughter]. "No, I mean that in a more profound way.".
14
166
1K
What's that? You want all the data we use at @FiveThirtyEight in one easy-to-find-and-download place?. OK:.
29
403
1K
We just published, to our knowledge, the most complete set of Russian troll tweets available. Notice how long before AND AFTER the 2016 election they were active:.
56
773
1K
Civil rights protests, essentially by definition, BEGIN as unpopular.
45
401
1K
BTW, 5 years ago yesterday @FiveThirtyEight re-launched as a standalone site. Took us a little time to figure things out, but could not be prouder of how far we've come. Thanks to everyone for reading.
9
18
1K
Kavanaugh’s strategy today — all-out attack, paint everything as partisan — might have been the best strategy to both:. 1. Get on the court.2. Do Republicans max damage in the midterms.
45
156
1K
If you had to pick just ONE chart to summarize the most important trend(s) during last few years in American politics, which would you pick?. A contender: .
53
315
985
Does having @KellyannePolls on your show or quoting her in your stories, do anything to inform the public? Does any good come from it?
Must-watch—.CONWAY: Spicer gave "alternative facts." .TODD: "Alternative facts are not facts. They are falsehoods.".
77
341
943
I’m trying to get away from the news but I can’t stop thinking about that moment the president of the United States released a video that included a “we love you” to people who had violently stormed — and at that moment were occupying — the U.S. Capitol.
20
114
855
Our post-debate poll with @Ipsos is in!!!. @JoeBiden clearly won the debate against @realDonaldTrump:.
21
206
776
Ladies and gentleman, we have CONFIDENCE INTERVAL SEPARATION! 🚀🚀🚀.
15
321
796
The moderation of this debate should be used in journalism schools to illustrate the hollowness of both-sides journalism. #Debates2020.
8
185
724
Kamala Harris hugely outperforming the media coverage she got on campaign kickoff .
37
216
637
I feel like, as a nation and a press corps, we need a better way to deal with political gaslighting . .
15
46
706
Walking the 🐶 and a woman walks by just now playing @ABC News on her phone and who do I hear?!?! @NateSilver538!!!!. I can’t get away!!!!!.
7
1
675
😮.
Here’s a useful read––a reminder of the importance of de-escalation by police in their interactions with protestors.
18
18
635
I hope we've reached a point where we don't need to pretend statements like this are earnest.
Biden has a historic opportunity to unify America behind the sentiment that our political divisions have gone too far . But instead he decided to promote the left’s efforts to use this terrible national tragedy to try and crush conservatives or anyone not anti-Trump enough.
10
70
630
The idea that Susan Collins doesn't know SCOTUS picks are ALWAYS political is . hard to believe.
Susan Collins says she's more concerned about Biden announcing he'll pick a Black woman than Trump announcing he'd pick a woman because Biden made his announcement when he was a candidate & therefore politicized the process. (Remember Trump's ACB superspreader event at the WH?)
72
72
560
This, i think, is one of the main problems in covering Trump (including his tweets):
43
420
634
Also also, it hardly seems worth correcting, but @FiveThirtyEight gave Trump about a 1-in-3 chance of winning in 2016 — we and @NateSilver538 were one of the few people saying Trump had a real path:
22
50
632
I really miss going into the office, and especially seeing my @FiveThirtyEight colleagues. But on the other hand:
11
5
626
Getting more speculative, but it's such a hard edit too that it makes me think whomever put this together had to really, really, really want to get the cut section out of there.
21
32
576
What did I learn from #GA06? Maybe journalism will never learn how to accurately and proportionally report on polls.
36
155
570
Please take the next 2-3 hours and read ALL the recent midterm coverage on @FiveThirtyEight — our team spent many long hours on it all and it’s full of insight and nuance and knowledge:.
43
90
585
Is anyone sparing a thought for the fact-checkers tonight?.
22
19
569
.@SenWarren's biggest strength in the 2020 Dem primary may be her ideological positioning: She's perfectly placed and has the policy chops to back up the rhetoric.
315
123
549
Am I the only person who just likes the phrase "basket of deplorables"?.
26
121
557
Note: Republicans have underperformed in every single special election since Trump was sworn in.
@538politics Here's where the #AZ08 result falls among all federal special elections in the Trump era:.
19
129
487
An idea for the @538politics podcast tonight, @galendruke @ClareMalone @NateSilver538:. We secretly pick one of us to NOT watch the debate, and then podcast listeners/viewers have to guess who it was. Waddya think?.
20
4
516
Judging by the early coverage of Elizabeth Warren, it seems like many in the media haven't really taken any lessons from 2016. 😞.
11
55
478
This is so so so incredibly stupid and hackish — there’s not a fairer, more self-reflective journalist working today than @ForecasterEnten.
CNN Analyst: ‘Unfortunately’ Majority of Polls Show O’Rourke Losing to Cruz
11
24
492
The moderator of the next debate should have control over the candidates' mics. #debatenight.
17
198
472
This, obviously, is NOT true. The polling pointed to a range (based on the size of polling errors historically) from a Biden landslide to a nail-biter. IF we end up on the far, I-don't-have-any-nails-left side of that range, there will be legit questions about the polls.
18
30
481
Seeing Bernie supporters (on Twitter) go from. "@FiveThirtyEight is a shill for the establishment" --> ."FiveThirtyEight . awesome!" . now that Bernie is up in our forecast post-Iowa has been super fun!!!!.
24
26
488
head's up, political reporters: . I'm going to a dentist appointment right now; the last five times I've tried to do this major news has happened (travel ban, Manafort indictment, etc).
16
19
468
The post-New Hampshire picture:. 1. @BernieSanders is the front-runner. 2. Chance that no on wins a majority of pledged delegates is 📈.3. We need more polls in post-NH contests!!!!.
26
69
464
Some uninformed thoughts on Mueller:. 1. Would have been more meaningful had it come pre-report release. 2. Seemed like an implicit correction to Barr's framing. 3. I'm not sure implicit does anyone any good in today's politics.
9
32
436
Most cable news coverage last week:. 1. @BernieSanders .2. @BetoORourke .3. @PeteButtigieg .4. @KamalaHarris .5. @TimRyan .6. @ewarren.7. @JulianCastro .8. @amyklobuchar .9. @SenGillibrand .10. Everyone else.
89
245
418
The Nevada Democratic Party has confirmed to @FiveThirtyEight that it will not use an app in its caucuses.
8
66
418
ICYMI: we've added a "get the data" thingy to our articles where applicable.
13
84
426
the idea that Trump's base hasn't eroded is just factually wrong:
25
175
391
That poll showing young people not turning out actually showed young people turning out (more than normal).
22
119
377
Democratic lead on the generic ballot is back up in the double digits:.
22
84
398
So Kavanaugh's testimony about this "Renate" thing contradicts what his lawyer said, which contradicts what the person referred to says? And all of it contradicts what their contemporaries remember? Do I have that right?.
13
132
368
Trump is getting Bush-after-Katrina-level marks from the public for Hurricane Maria response:
34
190
364
Thanks for the kind words everyone! I love each and every one of you!.
In other personnel news. Micah Cohen (@micahcohen) has been promoted to become FiveThirtyEight's Managing Editor! Micah's done an amazing job anchoring our politics coverage and we're very lucky to have him!
12
3
400
Just remember: all the time spent talking about Hamilton (including this tweet) could be spent doing journalism.
15
95
395
Trump and Sessions are running a "law & order" administration while releasing less information on law & order:
13
269
380
Will Harry be missed?.When I walked into work this morning, the first thing the security guard (in a building where hundreds of people work) said to me was:."I'm gonna have to get used to Harry not being here"
Oh and I'm moving to CNN to do some writing and appear on some tv as a analyst/writer. So that also happened this morning.
4
8
415
Like, you looked at this chart and thought "there's no way Handel wins" -and I should trust you to report a school board meeting accurately?
21
149
386
What does the Tim Kaine pick mean? It means Clinton thinks she has Trump beat.
64
224
363
Dear @lawfareblog,. Please hurry and publish things about the Manafort deal so I can repeat them as my own thoughts on the 🚨emergency @538politics pod 🚨 we're about to record. Sincerest thanks,.Micah.
8
15
357
Remember that "DEMOCRATS COLLAPSE IN MIDWEST!!!" thing?. Hmmm. yeah, not really.
13
74
348
This just in: . Apparently about a quarter of the @538politics Iowa live blog team is watching @BachelorABC instead of Iowa results.
12
15
389
People started staying home before the government asked them to:.
30
89
365
This "Fox News purposely released a poll showing Jones up a lot to depress Dem turnout" conspiracy theory may be the dumbest in a long line of dumb poll-related conspiracy theories.
19
71
383
today I'm thankful to be able to publish tables like this:.
19
36
372
The GA polls showed an almost perfectly tied race (as did all reporting).One candidate won by few percentage points.There's no story there.
28
103
366
In case you needed a needle fix (I'm just reusing my code from Nov. 6):.
10
38
366
It hardly seems worth pointing out, but @realDonaldTrump is wrong that the Electoral College favors Democrats:.
21
87
355
Democrats up to 13-point lead on our generic ballot tracker -- that's best position we've seen since we launched it.
28
104
342
The @FiveThirtyEight politics team just decided polls-plus is heroin, polls-only is booze and cigarettes and the now-cast is cocaine.
20
77
356
When I was getting people coffee at NYT, David Carr treated me like I had a Pulitzer. In person and in the paper, he was a great.
11
171
357
May I present the official @538politics nautical terminology for the 2018 midterms:. 1. anti-wave (Dems lose House seats).2. trickle (Dems gain 0 to 10).3. swell (11 to 24).4. wave (25 to 34).5. flood (35 to 49).6. tsunami (50+).
26
62
357
How divided are U.S. politics? Here's what the House map would look like . if only women voted and if only men voted:.
21
172
352
Yeah . no.
I have no doubt that, if the attack on Dr. Ford was as bad as she says, charges would have been immediately filed with local Law Enforcement Authorities by either her or her loving parents. I ask that she bring those filings forward so that we can learn date, time, and place!.
7
126
338
I wish I could +10,000,000 this.
Tv networks should not have partisans on these election night broadcasts. When you’re trying to communicate a clear FACTUAL report on allegations of election “stealing” from the president, it really uh, muddles things.
1
5
348
It's pretty amazing, despite all the talk about how careful everyone needed to be with results tonight, how NOT careful lots of people in the media are being. To be fair, there are also lots of people being careful, but . .
8
23
350
So people like the needle again now? . As a consistently big fan of the needle, it almost seems like some people hated the message and got mad at the messenger. Maybe?.
13
4
350
Cruz winning Kansas isn't surprising -- Cruz winning Kansas by 25 percentage points is.
24
202
329