538 politics
@538politics
Followers
124K
Following
61
Media
760
Statuses
2K
@FiveThirtyEight's politics team, gone rogue
New York, NY
Joined February 2014
The United States of Women vs. The United States of Men.
152
3K
3K
How did Clinton take control of the 2016 election? With the most dominating 3-debate performance we have on record:
69
866
1K
So, apparently Trump campaign is using our what-if-only-men-voted map to claim a surge towards Trump?.
New fundraising email from Eric Trump tells supporters campaign is making "huge gains" and includes this gif
72
821
1K
Late polls looking good for Clinton. FL, NC and NV now all light blue:
57
702
893
Not enough people paying attention to a transit strike in Philly that could hurt turnout among black voters.
171
1K
752
Dear pollsters, can you please add @Evan_McMullin to your polls in Idaho, New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa and Virginia?.
37
286
634
Trump needed a home run, and he either struck out, hit a single or vomited on home plate (depending on your POV):.
28
335
514
How world opinion of the U.S. and its president has changed since Trump:
38
430
540
The Women's Marches were more than 8-times bigger than Tea Party and Occupy protests combined, per our estimates.
12
345
476
Conservatives didn't bring down health care. It was moderate and anti-establishment Republicans.
40
226
490
Men are favoring Trump in typical numbers, but overwhelming share of women voting for Clinton.
17
189
410
Avg among African American voters in 4 latest live-interview polls:. Clinton: 86%.Stein: 5%.Johnson: 4%.Trump: 2%.
42
293
348
Debate week was bad for Trump, but so was the week after debate week.
15
147
347
The GOP health care bill may be dead, but the fissures in Republican Party that killed it won't go away so easily.
11
103
291
Clinton can take a Big Ten path to the White House, or an ACC route:
39
189
262
Clinton leads in all 10 states most likely to decide election, per to our polls-plus model:.
10
179
249
The GOP health care bill is like REALLY unpopular. So why are they so determined to pass it again?
42
157
242
Clinton made it through all 3 debates without interrupting Trump once (not counting fleeting interjections):
8
196
245
How did the Republican Party become the home for science skepticism? This guy -->
29
128
252
Clinton's chances up nearly 6 points post-debate in polls-plus, our most staid model.
14
168
219
It's looking like Trump may cost the Republicans their Senate majority:.
16
151
216
For the true 2016 nerds, how the states are correlated (as goes Maine, so goes 58% of New Hampshire):.
25
140
231
.@rachaeldottle wouldn't let me put a big red arrow on the actual chart, so I'm doing it here:
15
94
221
Relevant to #BasketOfDeplorables discussion: GOP is driven more by racial and cultural resentment than it use to be.
13
143
175
Main check on Trump agenda (besides courts) is Congress, particularly Republicans, so we're tracking each member:
10
122
182
New WaPo poll in Virginia didn't affect our forecasts much; Clinton led big and leads big:.
12
118
177
What does Bannon's exit mean for Trump admin policy? Probably nothing.
8
81
179
We made a film about Dukakis's disastrous 1988 run! Do campaigns have defining moments?
17
61
193
New state polls confirm what national polls had shown -- Clinton is winning by a lot:.
10
154
178
One measure of whether the GOP tax bill simplifies filing: Here's the last three months of H&R Block's stock price.
10
101
182
How would you describe Hillary Clinton's campaign so far? No. 1 or No. 2?.
125
86
173
The battlegrounds in the House and Senate look nothing alike:.
16
50
179
2018 is almost here. So naturally, it's time for the . MOST POWERFUL POLITICAL PLAYERS OF 2018 DRAFT!!!!!!!.
9
34
173
This includes 9 Confederate monuments in states that weren't states during the Civil War.
There are still more than 700 Confederate monuments in the U.S.
6
94
152
Last night’s primary winners: Progressives, women and progressive women.
4
52
137
We try to separate the really important stuff that happened in Trump's first 3 weeks from the shiny objects:
1
73
156
Hillary Clinton's weakness in the Midwest is really the Democratic Party's weakness in the Midwest.
15
86
146
With latest polls, Nevada now the lightest shade of blue in our forecast:
13
96
145
For the 2016 junkie: A list of all the latest polls, grouped by forecast update!.
11
80
145
Governing doesn't just happen, even w/ control of everything. You need certain things -- things the GOP doesn't have.
4
42
142
Clinton is really unpopular. Trump is really unpopular. Clinton is less unpopular.
8
84
133
Hillary Clinton has a lead of at least 9 points in states collectively worth 273 electoral votes:.
4
98
124
We don't have any polls specifically on Trumpcare yet, but we do have data on some of its essential parts:
23
67
127
Do you have experience . 1. writing/reporting on politics?.2. using data to understand politics?.Write for us:
22
94
132
Harvey may have boosted @realDonaldTrump's approval rating simply by focusing nation on something other than Trump:
19
40
133
National polls: "This race is tightening".State polls: "Nah. Clinton is up 7-8".National: "More like 5-6".State: đź–•.
6
61
117
This is ostensibly about the 2016 election, but applies to almost everything the media covers -- hurricanes, Congress, intelligence, etc
1. So…here's the conclusion to my series on why the media* (*yes, there were exceptions) really blew the election:
3
54
130
GOP in bad shape. And all else being equal, there's no reason to think things will get better for them before 2018:.
12
45
121
Democratic chances of winning the Senate are way up over the last 8-9 days:.
4
65
121
We could be looking at the largest gender gap in a presidential election since at least 1952.
5
124
118
Clinton's post-convention bounce is showing no signs of fading: .
7
69
114
The wings of TrumpWorld:.1 Bannon.2 Pence.3 McCain.4 Wall St. 5 Bureaucrats.6 The Party.7 Friend/Family.8 Wild Cards.
11
55
122
Who won our third 2020 Democratic primary draft? @ClareMalone? @NateSilver538? @geoffreyvs? @sfrostenson?
121
24
118
This is an important piece:
Here's a story frm @Crimealytics & me abt how the first FBI nat'l crime report under Trump is missing a ton of info:
1
57
114
Every Democratic senator voted yes on the Trump/Schumer/Pelosi Harvey-debt ceiling deal. 17 Republicans voted no.
9
57
108
1. Clinton blowout.2. Modest Clinton majority.3. 2012 redux.4. Clinton nail-biter (not below).5. Trump shocks world.
15
74
112
At base, Republicans and Democrats think different groups are marginalized and discriminated against.
14
110
111
The Republican senators most likely to fight Trump's agenda, and the Democrats most likely to back it.
6
77
102
The real story of the Trump campaign shakeup looks like it should have been @KellyannePolls, not the Breitbart guy.
25
54
99
I swear we're not just trolling Clinton supporters -- just trying to accurately describe the state of the race:
51
75
100
We'll be live-blogging #AlabamaSenate tonight, but you need not wait for analysis:. overview: .pod: polls:
17
50
107
Trump isn't remaking the map, but he could flip some safe states (from red to blue):
5
79
100
You probably don’t know the name Grace Hopper, but you should. So, watch "The Queen Of Code" http://t.co/0IhTv2JzuA
http://t.co/adP5Flru5f.
12
112
109
IF NV polls are wrong, it could bad for Trump or VERY bad. Depends whether polling error is NV specific or systemic
13
47
99
Stuff Trump did in Week 1 that actually matters, without all the craziness:
6
63
101
Where does Tom Brady rank in the pantheon of NFL QBs? Very, very high. http://t.co/37KfORsoD4
http://t.co/NcUxGP1wRH.
13
146
106
A formula to dance to "Shout" -- "a little bit softer now" -- without ending up on the floor: http://t.co/sIkhZ5696V
http://t.co/GVDQFBrVTB.
12
163
109
Another sign Trump's base has weakened (or always was weak):
5
24
93
Gary Johnson may finish higher than any independent candidate in >20 years:.
15
73
94
It's Day 200 of the Trump era: His approval rating has dropped 5 points since Day 100.
7
73
98
Why polls about the NFL protests have been all over the place:
19
41
95
Your mom wasted 90 minutes of her average day raising you ingrates. Get her a present for Mother's Day tomorrow! http://t.co/FoB3W5KOxn.
20
217
97
Also, for the nerds, a nice, brief rundown of the 6 party systems in U.S. history:.
1
53
95
The Senate races have detached themselves from Trump-Clinton:
15
82
91