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How did Clinton take control of the 2016 election? With the most dominating 3-debate performance we have on record:
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So, apparently Trump campaign is using our what-if-only-men-voted map to claim a surge towards Trump?
New fundraising email from Eric Trump tells supporters campaign is making "huge gains" and includes this gif
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Late polls looking good for Clinton. FL, NC and NV now all light blue:
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Not enough people paying attention to a transit strike in Philly that could hurt turnout among black voters.
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Dear pollsters, can you please add
@Evan_McMullin
to your polls in Idaho, New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa and Virginia?
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Trump needed a home run, and he either struck out, hit a single or vomited on home plate (depending on your POV):
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How world opinion of the U.S. and its president has changed since Trump:
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The Women's Marches were more than 8-times bigger than Tea Party and Occupy protests combined, per our estimates.
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Conservatives didn't bring down health care. It was moderate and anti-establishment Republicans.
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Men are favoring Trump in typical numbers, but overwhelming share of women voting for Clinton.
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Avg among African American voters in 4 latest live-interview polls:
Clinton: 86%
Stein: 5%
Johnson: 4%
Trump: 2%
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Debate week was bad for Trump, but so was the week after debate week.
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The GOP health care bill may be dead, but the fissures in Republican Party that killed it won't go away so easily.
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Clinton can take a Big Ten path to the White House, or an ACC route:
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Clinton leads in all 10 states most likely to decide election, per to our polls-plus model:
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The GOP health care bill is like REALLY unpopular. So why are they so determined to pass it again?
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Clinton made it through all 3 debates without interrupting Trump once (not counting fleeting interjections):
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How did the Republican Party become the home for science skepticism? This guy -->
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Clinton's chances up nearly 6 points post-debate in polls-plus, our most staid model.
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For the true 2016 nerds, how the states are correlated (as goes Maine, so goes 58% of New Hampshire):
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It's looking like Trump may cost the Republicans their Senate majority:
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.
@rachaeldottle
wouldn't let me put a big red arrow on the actual chart, so I'm doing it here:
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Relevant to
#BasketOfDeplorables
discussion: GOP is driven more by racial and cultural resentment than it use to be
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Main check on Trump agenda (besides courts) is Congress, particularly Republicans, so we're tracking each member:
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New WaPo poll in Virginia didn't affect our forecasts much; Clinton led big and leads big:
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What does Bannon's exit mean for Trump admin policy? Probably nothing.
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New state polls confirm what national polls had shown -- Clinton is winning by a lot:
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We made a film about Dukakis's disastrous 1988 run! Do campaigns have defining moments?
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One measure of whether the GOP tax bill simplifies filing: Here's the last three months of H&R Block's stock price
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How would you describe Hillary Clinton's campaign so far? No. 1 or No. 2?
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The battlegrounds in the House and Senate look nothing alike:
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2018 is almost here. So naturally, it's time for the ...
MOST POWERFUL POLITICAL PLAYERS OF 2018 DRAFT!!!!!!!
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This includes 9 Confederate monuments in states that weren't states during the Civil War.
There are still more than 700 Confederate monuments in the U.S.
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Last night’s primary winners: Progressives, women and progressive women.
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This feels newly relevant ... 🤔 ...
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We try to separate the really important stuff that happened in Trump's first 3 weeks from the shiny objects:
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With latest polls, Nevada now the lightest shade of blue in our forecast:
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Hillary Clinton's weakness in the Midwest is really the Democratic Party's weakness in the Midwest.
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For the 2016 junkie: A list of all the latest polls, grouped by forecast update!
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Governing doesn't just happen, even w/ control of everything. You need certain things -- things the GOP doesn't have
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Clinton is really unpopular.
Trump is really unpopular.
Clinton is less unpopular.
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Hillary Clinton has a lead of at least 9 points in states collectively worth 273 electoral votes:
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One of our most contentious politics chats:
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Do you have experience ...
1. writing/reporting on politics?
2. using data to understand politics?
Write for us:
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We don't have any polls specifically on Trumpcare yet, but we do have data on some of its essential parts:
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Harvey may have boosted
@realDonaldTrump
's approval rating simply by focusing nation on something other than Trump:
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This is not the winner
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National polls: "This race is tightening"
State polls: "Nah. Clinton is up 7-8"
National: "More like 5-6"
State: 🖕
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"seriously but not literally" doesn't last 10 days:
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This is ostensibly about the 2016 election, but applies to almost everything the media covers -- hurricanes, Congress, intelligence, etc
1. So…here's the conclusion to my series on why the media* (*yes, there were exceptions) really blew the election:
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GOP in bad shape.
And all else being equal, there's no reason to think things will get better for them before 2018:
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Democratic chances of winning the Senate are way up over the last 8-9 days:
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We could be looking at the largest gender gap in a presidential election since at least 1952.
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Clinton's post-convention bounce is showing no signs of fading:
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The wings of TrumpWorld:
1 Bannon
2 Pence
3 McCain
4 Wall St.
5 Bureaucrats
6 The Party
7 Friend/Family
8 Wild Cards
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Who won our third 2020 Democratic primary draft?
@ClareMalone
?
@NateSilver538
?
@geoffreyvs
?
@sfrostenson
?
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This is an important piece:
Here's a story frm
@Crimealytics
& me abt how the first FBI nat'l crime report under Trump is missing a ton of info:
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1. Clinton blowout
2. Modest Clinton majority
3. 2012 redux
4. Clinton nail-biter (not below)
5. Trump shocks world
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Every Democratic senator voted yes on the Trump/Schumer/Pelosi Harvey-debt ceiling deal. 17 Republicans voted no.
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At base, Republicans and Democrats think different groups are marginalized and discriminated against.
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The Republican senators most likely to fight Trump's agenda, and the Democrats most likely to back it.
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The real story of the Trump campaign shakeup looks like it should have been
@KellyannePolls
, not the Breitbart guy.
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We'll be live-blogging
#AlabamaSenate
tonight, but you need not wait for analysis:
overview:
pod:
polls:
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I swear we're not just trolling Clinton supporters -- just trying to accurately describe the state of the race:
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Trump isn't remaking the map, but he could flip some safe states (from red to blue):
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You probably don’t know the name Grace Hopper, but you should. So, watch "The Queen Of Code"
http://t.co/0IhTv2JzuA
http://t.co/adP5Flru5f
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IF NV polls are wrong, it could bad for Trump or VERY bad. Depends whether polling error is NV specific or systemic
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Where does Tom Brady rank in the pantheon of NFL QBs? Very, very high.
http://t.co/37KfORsoD4
http://t.co/NcUxGP1wRH
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A formula to dance to "Shout" -- "a little bit softer now" -- without ending up on the floor:
http://t.co/sIkhZ5696V
http://t.co/GVDQFBrVTB
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Stuff Trump did in Week 1 that actually matters, without all the craziness:
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Another sign Trump's base has weakened (or always was weak):
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Why polls about the NFL protests have been all over the place:
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It's Day 200 of the Trump era: His approval rating has dropped 5 points since Day 100.
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Your mom wasted 90 minutes of her average day raising you ingrates. Get her a present for Mother's Day tomorrow!
http://t.co/FoB3W5KOxn
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Gary Johnson may finish higher than any independent candidate in >20 years:
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Also, for the nerds, a nice, brief rundown of the 6 party systems in U.S. history:
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The Senate races have detached themselves from Trump-Clinton:
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