Max Goedl
@maxgoedl
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Economist @ https://t.co/KWGtdi0etW | Research interests: macro & international finance | All-around econ nerd
München, Germany
Joined January 2019
My paper with @GoedlHanischIsa is now out as @cepr_org discussion paper. We use firm-level survey data from @ifo_Institut as well as collective bargaining data from Germany to show that wages are reset more frequently and by larger increments during times of high inflation …
New CEPR Discussion Paper - DP19403 Wage Setting in Times of High and Low #Inflation Maximilian Gödl @unibw_m, Isabel Gödl-Hanisch @GoedlHanischIsa @LMU_Muenchen @ECONMunich
#CEPR_MEF #economics
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It’s really hard to fight against a suggestive graph which seems to fit a popular narrative. You have to make the same point over and over again. Industrial Production ≠ Value Added. The latter is what matters for a country‘s income.
@JosephPolitano I wish you guys would also look at gross value added (blue line on this chart) in manufacturing - not just volume (red line). Germany is a but peculiar in that it focuses a lot on the volume numbers. Most countries tend to focus on the gross value added.
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RT @_peterzorn: @BachmannRudi @roberthabeck Wenn man die Bruttowertschöpfung anstatt der Produktion betrachtet sieht es vergleichsweise bes…
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A number of people have explained why decompositions of inflation into "profit" and "wage" components don't tell us anything about the *cause* of inflation. I have tried to make the point for my students with the simplest possible toy model. @BachmannRudi @conlon_chris
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@franzdinhobl Korrekt - und sie hört auch 2022 auf. Aber der Abstieg ist lange nicht so dramatisch wie die Industrieproduktion suggeriert.
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@Jackbmeyer Relative prices, yes. The price level? That depends on a whole host of questions including how monetary policy reactions to tariffs and how permanent they are believed to be.
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RT @ericadyork: Three Simple Principles of Trade Policy by @D_A_Irwin 1. A tax on imports is a tax on exports 2. Businesses are consumers…
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A great piece! Tariffs raise relative prices of imported goods. But a relative price change does not cause inflation. Whether or not inflation rises depends on how tariffs impact aggregate demand and supply.
Highly recommended thoughts by Diego Comin and Robert Johnson on "Tariffs are coming: How trade dynamics will shape aggregate demand and inflation"
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@HannoLustig Isn’t it true that a country in a MU can have perpetual primary deficits as long as the rest of the MU runs sufficient surpluses? The transversality needs to hold only at the union level. Wasn’t that the message of Bergin (2000)?
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This is an awesome project! But I have one question: why is GDP per capita so low in some border regions? This must be an artifact of the methodology. Or are we to believe people in the SW tip of🇨🇭 produce only 5-8k per year? (That’s where the Great St Bernhard is!)
(1/2) Measuring global GDP is challenging, especially in middle- and low-income countries where reliable statistics are scarce. In new research, @HansbergRossi combines nighttime lights, land use, emissions, and a random forest model to estimate subnational GDP.
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RT @Simon_Mongey: Finally in print! The idea of writing a paper about the minimum wage was pretty scary. I'm glad we did. We learned a lot.…
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Da die Empirie unklar ist, müssen wir Theorie anwenden! 😊 Langfristig sollte die (reale) Zinsparität gelten: r_EU = r_US + reale Abwertung des Euro Nun stehen die Zeichen eher auf Abwertung des Euro (schwaches Wachstum, US-Zölle, etc). Also müsste r* in EU höher sein, oder?
@maxgoedl Wenn man statistische Unsicherheit berücksichtigt, ist nicht klar, ob es zwischen den USA und der Eurozone wirklich einen Unterschied gibt.
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@BachmannRudi Isn’t the answer obvious, Rudi? The ECB‘s rate should differ from the Fed‘s to the extent that r-star differs between the eurozone and the US. Aren’t there good reasons to think that Trump‘s policies are raising rstar (expansionary fiscal stance + tariffs which lower natural Y)?
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