Matthew Green
@mattngreen
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@CatholicUniv political scientist. Congress, D.C. & state (legislative) politics. Blogs @MisOfFact . Board games, old Marvel comics, drums. Views R my own.
Washington, D.C.
Joined June 2014
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The hardcover is now available! You can order it here:
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FYI, this is the first time since 2009 that every House Democrat voted for their party’s nominee for Speaker. Not one defection.
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I'm very excited to see
@jbouie
bring attention to the important expansion of the House Rules Committee in 1961, but it also suggests that Senate Dems can't easily or quickly undo the filibuster. 1/x
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@GeoffBowden
The phrase “teaching load” will be replaced with with “student-professor research partnerships”
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If Mike Johnson is elected Speaker, it would be historically noteworthy for a number of reasons. 1/x
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I expected McCarthy to survive today’s effort to remove him as Speaker. Some reasons why I was wrong. 1/x
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Upstaged by a cat tail. For the record, his name is Spaghetti.
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Johnson would (just barely) be the most conservative member to serve as Speaker in at least 80 years, as measured by NOMINATE scores. 2/x
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Did Klobuchar just cite her Legislative Effectiveness Score (Volden and Wiseman)?
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Finally, I'm not sure how to compare Johnson's role in challenging the legitimacy of the 2020 election with the behavior of past speakers, but it's obviously extremely unusual. 5/5
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Johnson also stands out for his lack of seniority. He would be the most junior member elected Speaker in over 80 years. 4/x
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I also didn't appreciate how many Ds (and Rs) viewed McCarthy as untrustworthy. If you don’t keep your word as a leader, the consequences can be severe. It was one of the things that damaged Speaker Jim Wright. 5/x
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I underestimated the Dem Caucus’ animosity towards McCarthy. Most recently, he publicly blamed them for wanting to shut down the government, which really angered them. 2/x
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In 2015 I wrote about how minority parties are driven in part by (a) emotion and (b) a desire to protect a same-party president. I should have consulted my own research ☹ 4/x
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I’m reminded of the story about Nance Garner suggesting to Sam Rayburn that he get House Dems together to hash out their differences. Rayburn’s response: “Are you crazy? They would kill each other.”
THINGS not going so great in GOP conference, which turned heated, I’m told.
At one point, Gaetz was told to sit down by McCarthy and refused, then Rep. Bost “got all emotional” and “was cussing at him” and “telling him it’s all his fault,” one member said.
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Dems were also upset by McCarthy’s decision to call for an impeachment inquiry w/o first having a floor vote, as he had originally promised to do. 3/x
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@NormOrnstein
@mkraju
Odd to hear a call for unity from the founding chair of the House Freedom Caucus.
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Johnson has an impressive legislative record based on his LES score, putting him at the 88th percentile of his party -- which would be the highest for a Speaker since Tom Foley. 3/x
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Finally, I assumed Dems wouldn't want to set a precedent of the minority joining a majority faction to remove a speaker. But they've likely decided to change the rules when they can, so this sort of thing can’t happen again. 7/7
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In my Congress class today, the subject is congressional reform. So this report from
@leedrutman
@JonathanDCohen1
@NormOrnstein
& Yuval Levin couldn't come at a better time:
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By my count, over 25% of House Republicans have violated the GOP's organizational authority by voting to vacate the chair or voting against the party's nominee on the House floor (or have threatened to).
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I am thrilled to join the incredibly talented
@MisOfFact
blogging team! Stay tuned for more posts from me about congressional parties and party leaders -- and maybe even an occasional post about politics-themed board games.
We are pleased to announce that
@mattngreen
has joined the
@MisOfFact
team! Matt is a political scientist at
@CatholicUniv
and the author of recent books on the House Freedom Caucus and House leadership elections. Check out his recent post here:
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I'll be on
@cspan
tomorrow offering commentary during the House's unusual opening day.
@mollyereynolds
did it last year -- a tough act to follow!
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No graphs, but here is a list of every cross-party coalition that elected a state chamber leader since 1979 that I could find (30 since the 1990s)... 1/2
@mattngreen
Well, no kidding. It is not rocket science. But how much of that has happened since the 1990s, the era of current polarization?
If you have any graphs over time from your books, by all means post them!
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I'm pleased to announced that Jeff Crouch and I are the new editors of
@Kansas_Press
series on congressional leadership. We are looking for contributors. If you have an idea for a book for the series, let us know!
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Yes! Tom Mann and
@NormOrnstein
developed plans nearly two decades ago. Congress did nothing.
"How would Congress pass laws to address containment, treatment, or appropriations, or even exercise oversight of an administration that cannot be trusted to act appropriately?"
@NormOrnstein
writes:
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My thoughts (and references to others’) on the impending vote for speaker. 1/12
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A sneak peek at the cover of our forthcoming book on Newt Gingrich.
Coming in Summer 2022 from the University Press of Kansas!!
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All of this trumped the risk (for Dems) that McCarthy might be replaced by someone worse. 6/x
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@DKarol
@sgadarian
Add it to Fenno’s list. Lawmakers are motivated by re-election, influence, power, fear of being murdered.
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Did reelection concerns motivate some House Republicans to sign the Texas lawsuit? My analysis suggests they did, but that ideology did too - and that's disturbing. My latest at
@MisOfFact
.
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Several leaders of the effort to vote against the EC count were members of, or closely affiliated with, the House Freedom Caucus.
NEW: On the day the Capitol was attacked, 139 Republicans in the House voted to dispute the Electoral College count. This is how they got there.
w/
@ddknyt
&
@mmcintire
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@jonallendc
@nick_shapiro
I agree with Brennan. My mom's cousin did not die so that his star could be used as a political backdrop
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That’s my daughter on top!
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Before taking Gaetz' threat seriously, I'd ask him the following questions:
JUST IN: Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) tells
@jaketapper
that he will move to oust House Speaker Kevin McCarthy this week.
@CNNSotu
#CNNSOTU
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@MattGlassman312
The comment about Jeffries is especially strange. It's almost as if they'd rather still be in the minority, throwing sand in the gears.
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As the race for the GOP nominee for Speaker heats up -- and maybe races for other leadership offices too -- here’s a few things to watch for (drawing from our 2015 book Choosing the Leader) 1/x
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Just played
@torylynn
’s Votes For Women from
@fortcircle
for 1st time. Mechanic is like Making of the President but w/more luck. Suffragists came w/in 6 states of winning. Great game play & historical details - eager to play again!
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Any advice from those who have been department chairs?
Announcing our new department leadership team: Chair Matthew Green, Vice Chair & Director of Graduate Studies Jakub Grygiel, and Director of Undergraduate Studies Jon Askonas. Welcome
@mattngreen
@j_grygiel
@JonAskonas
!
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Our new biography of Newt Gingrich with
@Kansas_Press
has officially been released! Only the audio version is available so far, but if you'd like to hear the clear, authoritative voice of Mike Lenz reading our book, see here:
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Our new book on leadership races in Congress is now available!
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Good piece by
@AaronBlake
. I'd add: (1) the # of state chambers electing leaders w/cross-party coalitions goes up & down over time. (2) Most coalitions = min. party + faction of maj. party. (3) Most coalitions elect someone from the maj. party. to be leader.
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A rare Senator who actually cared about the federal workforce.
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The challenges that Nancy Pelosi and House Democrats face with a smaller majority -- starting with the upcoming election for Speaker. My latest post
@MisOfFact
.
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My take on why Liz Cheney won her fight to remain Conference Chair, drawing on research by me and Doug Harris on leadership races
How Liz Cheney survived the attempt to oust her from House leadership
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ICYMI:
@POLITICOMag
published a collection of short essays on McCarthy's ouster & its significance by lots of smart people, incl.
@NormOrnstein
@julia_azari
@jennifernvictor
@smotus
@LilyMasonPhD
and more!
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Rayburn did expand Rules to help a new Dem president (evidence that Speakers care about the presidential party!). But it also took 2 yrs of House libs pushing Rayburn to embrace reform. Dropping the filibuster may take a similar push by a coalition of Senate Dems. 2/x
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Some have argued that big electoral wins for the GOP in November are inevitable. The data (from
@smotus
,
@CookPolitical
, and elsewhere) suggest taking a more cautious view. My latest at
@MisOfFact
.
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1st, Republicans did worse in the midterms than expected. As Doug Harris & I argue (2019), revolts against incumbent leaders are more likely when parties lose more seats than anticipated. McCarthy isn't technically an incumbent, but the dynamic is similar. 1/x
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2nd, if the GOP wins control of the House, it will prob. be w/a tiny majority. To be elected Speaker, a candidate needs a majority of all those on the House floor who vote for a candidate. So a handful of GOPers could vote for a 3rd candidate & deny McCarthy the Speakership. 3/x
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If you want to get a sense of what kind of a mess we are in, I highly recommend Jeff Jenkins &
@cstewartiii
's Fighting for the Speakership and its description of 19th century fights to select a Speaker.
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Devastating news.
@burdett_loomis
was a giant in the field. He initiated the great leadership series
@Kansas_Press
and was incredibly supportive of the research Jeff Crouch and I did on Newt Gingrich.
1/2 More on the passing of
@burdett_loomis
. Read his twitter feed just for a week & you will learn more about politics that way than most others. He was a terrific mentor to young congress & interest group scholars regardless of who you were or where you came from.
#gonetoosoon
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Jeffries has now been nominated for the speakership more times than any other Dem candidate since 1903 except Rayburn, Pelosi, and Garrett (who ran in the '23 multi-ballot race). (h/t Doug Harris)
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Who might win the GOP nomination for Speaker? Drawing from the book Doug Harris & I wrote on leadership races (2015) I did some regression analyses to estimate the vote. 1/x
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The committee expansion was temporary, which made it more palpable. I doubt Schumer can credibly promise to suspend the filibuster for just two years. 3/x
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For a second there I thought I was looking at a state legislative chamber.
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I recently interviewed Dan Wirls, professor of politics at
@ucsc
, about his new book on the U.S. Senate. You can find it at
@MisOfFact
:
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Proud dad!
🚨 Roster Drop! 🚨
We’re happy to announce the squad that will be taking their talents to Baku in March 2022.
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Cannon, 1910: he dared GOP insurgents to remove him, a Democrat took the bait, and most of the insurgents refused to support the resolution. It failed. (Cannon was *not* bailed out by Democrats, as some have claimed.) 8/x
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Tune in to CSPAN3 tonight, 7pm EST -- I'll be discussing my forthcoming book with Doug Harris on leadership races in Congress
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This coming Monday I’ll be explaining why House Republicans have struggled to pick and keep a Speaker & what it means for the future.
Nov. 13th in DC! Details and tickets at
@politico
@CNNPolitics
@HuffPostPol
@CQnow
@thehill
@theHillisHome
@capitalcommnews
@HillRagDC
@ps_polisci
@PoliSciRes
@NateSilver538
@HouseDemocrats
@SenateDems
@SenateGOP
@CatholicUniv
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Defections of this sort are not hypothetical. Indeed, voting for other candidates besides one’s party nominee for Speaker (or at least voting “present”) has been a regular occurrence on the House floor since 2011. 5/x
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@joshHuder
Briana Bee and I made a table of all the (threatened) punishments against lawmakers for non-ethics reasons from 1965 to 2015. Voting against one bill is seldom grounds for punishment, and committee removal is uncommon.
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So some GOPers are threatening to remove McCarthy if he cooperates with Democrats, but to do so they would need…the cooperation of Democrats.
New: Matt Gaetz floated a plan team up w/ Democrats to oust McCarthy. Some House Dems say they’re not interested.
“Most of us came here to govern and get things done, not indulge Matt Gaetz when he has one of his tantrums," Rep. Greg Landsman told
@Axios
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Just arrived in the mail! Honored to have contributed to the 1st book in this series by
@burdett_loomis
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For the first time since 2011, not a single member of Congress defected on the vote for Speaker.
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Contrast with Pelosi’s methodical horse-trading to get elected Speaker in 2018, which Doug Harris and I documented here. 7/12
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Without positive and persuasive answers to these questions, I see little reason to take Gaetz' threat seriously. 6/x
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If you haven’t read
@jbf1755
’s The Field of Blood, I highly recommend it. Yesterday’s tussle was nothing compared to what some lawmakers did to each other in the 19th century.
In the congressional record of the 1830s, 1840s, and 1850s, this would be described as "There was a slight sensation in the back of the chamber" -- with nothing more said.
Ladies and gentlemen, I give you: about 17 years of my research life.
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One of our
@CUApolitics
alum has just been elected to be the nation's youngest speaker of a state House. Congratulations
@RyanFecteau
!
I’m honored to be elected Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives.
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I wouldn't look to Nathaniel Banks as an example of a successful choice for Speaker
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Though unlikely, should unhappiness with the midterms leads a credible rival GOP candidate for Speaker to emerge, that could make it harder for McCarthy to win the nomination for Speaker, which is determined by a majority of his party. 2/x
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(Here's a good explanation of the voting process for Speaker:) 4/x
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It was great fun doing this podcast. If you’d like to learn more, stay tuned for our forthcoming book on Gingrich in June!
The first episode of 2022 is about Newt Gingrich, GOP Speaker of the House 1995-1998. My guest for this one was the brilliant
@mattngreen
from CUA. Enjoy!
@TomPepinsky
@newtgingrich
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In my latest
@MisOfFact
post, I frame the recent delaying tactics by the House GOP in the context of minority party politics & the difficult choice between confrontation and cooperation. Plus, I quote
@joshHuder
.
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Lawmakers (R's especially) are getting tired of waiting around on the floor to hear their name called.
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Boehner, 2015: he resigned before the resolution came to the floor. It's assumed that he feared removal, but there's good evidence that he left for other reasons (incl. wanting to spare his colleagues from voting to keep him, which most were willing to do). 9/9
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A review of our new book on leadership races, by
@jiwallner
Who Reaches the Pinnacle of Power in Congress, and Why? - Law & Liberty
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This from
@MattGlassman312
remains the single best guide to following the results on Election Day.
ELECSHUN DAE. My 26-point layman's guide to getting your politics junkie on tomorrow, back and better than ever:
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1. Does Gaetz have enough votes to pass a resolution to vacate the chair (and reject a motion to table it)? For reasons that I and others have gone into previously, one should not assume that Democrats will vote for the resolution. 2/x
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Tho I suspect this was a 1 time protest, the historical parallel McCarthy wants to avoid is the GOP rule that lost in March 1997 b/c 11 Rs defected. It presaged a coup attempt against Newt Gingrich 4 months later.
It was extremely weird Democratic votes were needed bring the debt deal to the floor. The House just voted down a rule.
Procedural votes are not policy votes. The breakdown of a party’s procedural coalition is far more damaging for House leaders.
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Most obits will focus on Rumsfeld's service as Sec. Def. But he first gained attention as the leader of "Rumsfeld's Raiders" in the U.S. House in the late 1960's, where he organized the longest House filibuster in modern history.
Breaking News: Donald Rumsfeld is dead at 88. The secretary of defense for two presidents, he was in charge of the invasion of Iraq under George W. Bush.
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The misconceptions that guide Congress and create unrealistic expectations of what it must do. My latest at
@MisOfFact
.
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1/
#JohnDingell
anecdote: I remember attending a staff/member meeting on the Hill shortly after the 1994 elections (when the GOP took over after 40 years in the minority)
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A sad moment for the U.S. Senate.
The complete surrender of its Article I responsibilities.
Though I’m a House guy at heart, it gives me no pleasure to see this.
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You can’t beat someone with no one. Unless the HFC finds a popular alternative candidate, it’s hard to see McCarty lose his party’s nomination for Speaker.
NEW: As House Freedom Caucus plots how to exert its influence on next year’s likely GOP majority, its members are signaling plans to holster a potent political weapon:
Challenging Kevin McCarthy.
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Will today’s hearing matter? Come to DC’s Little Penn Coffeehouse on July 6 at 6pm for my analysis of the
@January6thCmte
and its likely impact on American politics.
@profsandpints
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Finally, I don't think House history is a very helpful guide to what may happen if Gaetz follows through. 7/x
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