Luke
@lukewines
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I animate boring topics to keep you interested. Associate Producer of Insights @atlasnewsco Animations and visuals @VoteHubUS - Opinions/analyses are my own.
Long Beach, CA
Joined June 2020
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@KnowNothingTV
"even if its fake... the fake is usually the warning" is probably the worst copium overdose ive ever witnessed
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Internal Republican polls show Trump receiving less than 50% of the vote against Harris in Ohio — NYTimes
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My gut instinct tells me this is a high profile Republican speaker. No evidence of that though.
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@benshapiro
it’s so funny for ben shapiro to go from “they can’t do this” to “well if what they’re saying is true they were too slow”
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I don’t see Kamala picking Shapiro at this point. There’s too much backroom drama and division over him.
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The DNC will be a turning point.
If Harris continues to gain in the polls well after the event is over we will know for certain that this isn’t a honeymoon.
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Yes this is Shapiro’s schedule tomorrow.
No, I do not think they’d soft launch him as VP like this.
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The ‘weird’ messaging has landed against JD Vance particularly well and Walz was the architect of it.
It’ll be interesting to see their dynamic.
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The internal polling must be clear, her campaign believes winning the election necessitates a very pro-Israel response.
We’ll see how this impacts her standing with young voters but it will likely reduce volunteer numbers among that cohort.
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@Kelli2457
GWB would be the big ticket for them, he and Romney are the only ones who would turn heads in the Republican sphere.
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The only unbiased measure of a VP's rollout is favorability polls.
Walz: +4.5
Vance: -9.1
There are other factors to consider but the Walz rollout is far from a disaster.
I consider myself very politically engaged and am definitely in some embarrassingly high percentile for news consumption, but even I am not quite sure why so many Republicans on my timeline are so sure Walz has been the single worst rollout of a VP in history
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There is a right wing narrative that Biden dropping out was ‘undemocratic’
That isn’t going to work with an electorate that is happy he’s gone.
"Withdrawing his name from consideration as nominee for president in 2024 was the right thing for Biden to do"
Agree: 81%
Disagree: 8%
Big Village / July 24, 2024 / n=1492
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J.D. Vance is sitting at a -6 approval rating.
This is the lowest ever for a VP nominee post-convention.
Trump chose him to drive out the base in an election that he thought would be a landslide.
The game has changed, that may not be the case anymore.
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@averagedemocrap
The implication is that 13 factors, some of which are subjective, can judge the difference between 49.97% and 50.01% in a swing state.
The truth is that no one can predict any election from such a basic set of facts, especially one this close.
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Nate Silver’s forecast now has Kamala at a 50.5% chance of winning the presidency.
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I am genuinely astonished by how fast the electorate moved past January 6th and Trump's attempts to overturn the 2020 election.
His approval rating dropped by double digits in the last days of his presidency.
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This goes for both sides of the political spectrum:
Don't trust a pundit who "unskews" polls.
The pollster already unskewed it, that's called weighting. There is zero evidence that polls systematically disfavor specific parties or candidates.
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Latest
@VoteHubUS
state polling averages.
Harris now leads Trump in the EC.
See the details here:
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@AnthonyCTesla
It’s leaked internal poll data, you should be skeptical.
If he loses Ohio it is over for him. States don’t flip independently. It would indicate an insurmountable blue wave.
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@greyjay_twt
this doesn't even include the context that steven never questioned the joke from the moment he thought of it to when he paid for the commission of the singer to the animator-
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I'll be doing election map renders on
@VoteHubUS
.
Make sure you're following to see some informative (and pretty) maps!
This is Georgia 2020.
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This is still within the margin of error.
You should feel about the same as when Harris is leading by 1 point in a poll.
NEW Michigan poll by EPIC-MRA (B-)
🟥 Donald Trump 47%
🟦 Kamala Harris 46%
(last poll was Trump +7 vs Biden)
🟦 Elissa Slotkin 46%
🟥 Mike Rogers 42%
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@Second_Nick
@Kelli2457
I wouldn't even consider this a possibility but if it happened it would be groundbreaking.
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Harris flipped AZ and closed the gap in NC per the
@VoteHubUS
polling average.
However, she can still only survive a 1-point polling error.
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Radical Kamala Harris has already abolished the Electoral College before even winning the election
The national polling average and the tipping point state (MICHIGAN) polling averages are exactly the same- HARRIS +1
Data by
@VoteHubUS
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Thanksgiving is gonna be wild
RFK Jr’s son fought for Ukraine and dated Taylor Swift. Sometimes the Kennedy gene skips a generation
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Some wild favorability ratings out of the WaPo poll from last night:
🟦 Harris 45/44 (NET +1)
🟥 Trump 35/57 (NET -22)
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Possibly the only situation where a special guest could be both Beyoncé or Liz Cheney.
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@Acyn
wasn't that for his library like the place where all the records of his presidency legally can go-
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It is a little crazy that North Carolinians can vote 60 days before the election.
60 days ago Biden was bragging about his debate skills and Trump hadn’t been shot at.
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@SocDoneLeft
I get the larger point that you're going for and I agree- but this data isn't very convincing.
20% is a pretty low rate considering these people have left their families and lives behind entirely never to see them again.
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@BustaNutJohnson
@umichvoter
I’m sure they’re calculating the pros and cons. Personally, I think the risk to the entire campaign is bigger than increasing her chances in Pennsylvania.
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@KatulkaUSA
@benshapiro
dude— he’s sarcastically pointing out that if it is sensitive nuclear information then they should’ve collected it faster.
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@JoshuaPotash
if there’s no stopping climate change under capitalism then you should give up because we are all dead.
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This 3D map shows Wisconsin's 2020 election results. Taller bars mean more votes.
Harris is focused on reducing losses in the suburbs near Milwaukee while boosting urban turnout statewide.
Follow
@VoteHubUS
to track how she’s doing with live maps like this on election night.
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Voters hate inflation, opposition parties are winning across the world because of it.
This should be an easy election for the Republican Party, but Trump is uniquely unelectable.
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@AP
1. trusting Israeli reporting on a war that they are the aggressors of is disgusting the AP would never do this with the Russia-Ukraine war.
2. even if this info is accurate- 1/3rd? why don't you focus on the 2/3rds that were brutally murdered by the Israelis?
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@PeachJars
every ‘you might like’ tweet for me has made me incredibly uncomfortable or mildly angry
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This is the Texas 2020 election in 3D.
A blue Texas depends on Harris flipping suburbs in DFW, Houston, and Austin. Something very unlikely to happen this cycle.
Follow
@VoteHubUS
to see the 2024 map live like this on election night.
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@nikasoonshiong
@PplsCityCouncil
POV the LA Times article title:
“STRONG ARMED ROBBERIES DOUBLE AFTER POLICE DEFUNDING”
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@equalityAlec
Meanwhile unhoused individuals are reportedly committing petty offenses on purpose with the goal of achieving shelter. Our system is beyond broken.
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It’s hard to judge the 538 model because its methodology is shrouded in so much secrecy.
If you want to look at a model I’d recommend
@NateSilver538
’s. He’s far more open about what’s going on inside.
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@cenkuygur
Trump is in the middle of forming a massive Republican coalition that would've been impossible just 15 years ago.
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@theserfstv
Students are better off learning sex ed from other kids?? It’s clear that his goal is to create uniformed kids he can molest-
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@matthewfdesmond
@OnyxAurelius
Yes, American liberals would want George W Bush to speak at the DNC. It would represent a massive repudiation of the Republican party by a former Republican president.
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The 2020 election in Chicago.
Let me know what other cities or states you'd like to see.
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Arizona's 2020 Presidential Election Mapped in 3D
We'll post these on
@VoteHubUS
live as the 2024 election results come in, including some arrows to help string you along!
I’ll also share other election maps here as I prepare for November.
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Some clarification:
The majority of young voters will vote for the Harris/Walz ticket. That is clear from polling.
What is also clear from polling is that her Israel stance will depress turnout among this group at least slightly.
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@kattenbarge
she literally made fun of a young dead influencer for having more followers than her among tons of other insane shit 😭
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@ScottHech
There are reports (as there are every winter) of unhoused individuals purposefully committing petty offenses and begging judges for 30 day sentences in order to avoid the cold. This country is beyond broken— it’s unfixable.
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State polling averages by
@VoteHubUS
with a 6 point shift in either direction.
For reference, Wisconsin had the worst state polling miss in the 2020 election at 7 points.
An error that large across the board is incredibly unlikely.
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🔍 The following is a 3D recreation of the Trump assassination attempt based on available OSINT data.
We begin with the initial shot.
The bullet grazed the former President in his right ear. It originated from a rooftop ~447ft away.
This thread will be updated as the
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I’ll be doing these live for
@VoteHubUS
on election night.
Comparing the 2024 and 2020 3D maps will reveal where Harris or Trump are gaining ground, and just how significant those shifts are as the live vote tallies roll in.
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@umichvoter
Swing voters in 2020 saw Biden as harmless, somewhat humble, and a steward of the presidency.
He’s completely ruined that image for a lot of them with these last few public appearances..
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@DanteAtkins
@umichvoter
I don’t think they’d announce his remarks in his schedule like this if they knew he was the VP pick. Makes it more likely to be a unity speech, still very possible he’s the guy though.
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@hasanthehun
if 40% of cops don’t have guns we’ll need like 50 in the school hallway to neutralize the shooter
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@cameron_kasky
this was mostly posturing too though-
he hasn't declared a national health emergency, is against stacking the court, won't sign an EO opening private clinics on federal lands.
instead he does this which isn't bad ofc- but is insultingly little
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@kattenbarge
transphobia, her mocking of an individual born with a cleft pallet, theres so many things to list dude
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@kantillectual
@WhackNicholson
bro thinks he baited us but really he just said he’d fuck a 10 year old for no reason
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GWB speaking would represent a brutal repudiation of the Republicans. Their own former President aligning himself with an ideologically opposed group to beat Trump.
It would result in infighting but operatives might see that as acceptable if they can win independent votes.
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@BuddhaSplash
@umichvoter
It is important to touch grass I agree but Pelosi doesn’t like him and there’s a lot of oppo research coming out.
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@IdahoMoose14
Walz is the safest.
Beshear has the most electoral potential with the least baggage.
safest ≠ best
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Trump losing his favorability boost, the Harris momentum, the DNC, interest rates dropping, and the debates.
We could be on the edge of a large fall in the polls for Trump.
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State Polling Averages with a ±4-point shift.
@VoteHubUS
🟦Kamala Harris (D): 270
🟥Donald Trump (R): 268
The 2016 and 2020 elections had polls favoring Democrats, but that does not mean 2024 will follow the same pattern.
See the map here:
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This is pretty much the 2020 results.
If the polls are accurate for this cycle we will see a repeat of 2020. I find that much more likely than Trump winning every swing state.
New FOX News polls
Georgia 🟦 Harris 50% 🟥 Trump 48%
Nevada 🟦 Harris 50% 🟥 Trump 48%
Arizona 🟦 Harris 50% 🟥 Trump 49%
North Carolina 🟥 Trump 50% 🟦 Harris 49%
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Cheryl Johnson got that look I had in elementary school when the teacher made me redo my times tables for the 15th time
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The gunman fired off several more rounds. Some of which landed within range of Trump's crowd.
One attendee was killed, and another was injured.
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Convention boosts are still real despite our polarization.
It appears Trump's lack of one was an exception, not the new rule. That's a bad sign for him.
Today's update.
We are already seeing a convention bounce for Harris, and this is from data BEFORE her speech last night.
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@LolOverruled
its the liberal monkey brain of going full reactionary the second a walmart gets robbed once
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I'm referring to mainstream A/B rated pollsters with long history here. Not Rasmussen.
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@cringepolitik
maybe he should make hardcore homosexuality porn instead with one of his yes men from the peanut gallery
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The weirdest election map that could actually plausibly occur.
I think we're all underrating the possibility that we end up with some really strange electoral map, historically we have for example, Trump winning MI in 2016 and Blue GA with Red NC and FL in 2020 both of which were very out of left field results not many were expecting.
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This interview was pre-taped and with his running mate.
Kamala's first interview will be a pre-tape with Tim Walz...
So not only are the questions planned... but Walz cover for her... AND they can edit when she screws up.
This isn't a real interview. It's propaganda.
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@shaun_vids
attacking someone for something they can’t control, even if they’re evil scum, normalizes those attacks for everyone- you wouldn’t misgender Blair White, same idea.
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@ArmandDoma
I don’t think the media has done a great job laying out the economic impact of tariffs.
You’re talking $900k/yr per $40k/yr job.
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He is officially back. The Harris campaign is celebrating.
There will be no future under Comrade Kamala Harris, because she will take us into a Nuclear World War III! She will never be respected by the Tyrants of the World!
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If Trump himself is posting from this account again, it's a positive development for the Harris campaign.
Who is negotiating for us in the Middle East? Bombs are dropping all over the place! Sleepy Joe is sleeping on a Beach in California, viciously Exiled by the Democrats, and Comrade Kamala is doing a campaign bus tour with Tampon Tim, her really bad V.P. Pick. Let’s not have World
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@libsoftiktok
freedom of speech is when you fire someone for being smarter than you? okay- 💀
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Even if you’re in a safe state, it’s probably not a good idea to vote for a third party if you’re unhappy with the nominee but really dislike the alternative.
I’m sure there were many Clinton voters in Michigan who voted for Stein thinking the state was safe.
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@TheKavernacle
haven't seen the clip but i imagine something like:
🐸You hear many post-modern thinkers claim that hitler was EVAIL, NO. He was deeply deeply misguided, but not EVAIL. 🐸
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