levered beta boy
@leveredbetaboy2
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L/S equity covering consumer and internet
New York, NY
Joined July 2022
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Citadel +8.1% and +13.7% YTD
Millennium +6.9% YTD
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Light Street and Whale Rock leading single manager YTD returns at +55% and +32%, respectively
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Jain launching with $5B, 215 employees and 42 PMs - seems so bloated
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MS intern survey showing $NKE losing share to $ONON and $DECK Hokas
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Disagree with Einhorn here. Times change, alpha generating strategies get competed away over time, PMs need to evolve and iterate their strategies
You don’t hear Druck complaining about broken markets
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Feels like the quality of HF/PE candidates out of banking programs is deteriorating. Impaired attention spans, less horsepower, less drive…
Is this real? Is tech still taking share and attracting best talent?
Or am I just old..
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Bschool apps hit 7 year lows
$200k over two years to party, travel, grow your network, and/or find a SO not worth it anymore?
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Familiar with the Wang IR Dynasty?
Spencer Wang of $NFLX and Alax Wang of $UBER are brothers
Both cut their teeth in equity research prior to the IR transition (CS and MS, respectively)
Spencer has mastered the fine art of ignoring investors. Alax may soon follow
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Just sat in on a meeting with Grant Wonders at GS tech - guy looks like he’s 15 years old
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A big deal for $NKE and $ADS - legacy large brands aren’t cool anymore
Sportswear brands market share will see increasing fragmentation
h/t
@BoF
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Amazing chart - absolutely no chance $CAKE is below the average
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In this risk-off tape with internet multiples compressing, could see a blood bath on weak fundamentals
- $ETSY could see <$55 with a GMS miss and a guide below
- $MTCH could see <$25 on a Tinder payers miss - user data stinks
- $PINS <$30 if it guides to revs below 20%
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Agree with the responses, esp the COVID impact
Think there is a generational component to it too. Gen Z’s sense of entitlement is off the charts. And there’s something amiss with the social side - no friends, no dating, no sex, no drugs - the perceived isolation is odd
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$GOOGL a great example of fading fintwit
Post $MSFT Bing-ChatGPT integration, so many fearmongering posts about the death of GOOGL search
GOOGL isn't going anywhere, stock is up +20% in a month, incremental costs being slashed, ad checks stable-to-constructive
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$MTCH
Have talked about this generational issue issue before - here is some evidence
Dating apps want to be more than just dating apps as fewer people swipe right
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@MungerValue
Honestly was very engaged in the meeting and respectful to the CFO. Asked about room nights growth into 24/25, the loyalty program (he is a BKNG Genius level 3)…
Has a whimsical aura, like a little HF elf
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@rev_cap
Agree - haven’t seen details but I imagine their sharpe / vol stats are best in class too
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I did not know this fun fact about Susan - Larry and Sergey rented her garage as they were starting GOOGL.
Imagine seeing your tenant crush it so much you decide to join them given the opportunity.
Gone so young... RIP
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I’d like to thank Yipit in advance for setting AWS expectations low with its weekly data.
My prediction: Q3 AWS stabilizes, Q4 QTD better, and $AMZN stock is going higher
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@TwannsWorld
PM will gauge your passion for the markets and ask for 2-3 ideas. Why public markets? Why software? What ideas do you like now?
Be honest - acknowledge your strengths as much as your weaknesses. Don’t misrepresent your public markets knowledge.
Communicate how hungry you are.
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Does every generation just think the ones after them are weaker?
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Great advice from Buffett
If your biggest long rocketing up +15% doesn’t get you ROCK hard, the hedge fund industry is not for you
Find your passion
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Andy seeing $CSGP open green after he guided FY24 EBITDA 70% below street last night
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@KirkSimon9
Need more details - if he’s jumping around from underperforming pod to underperforming pod, ofc that sucks..
But if he has a good rep and is clipping 7-figure annual mins by bouncing around, yeah the pod shop shuffle still takes its toll, but cry me a river in this case
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$CELH Nielsen data slowing down to single digit growth
Velocities -21% in the most recent week
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How many times can Elliott announce a position in a fundamentally challenged biz and drive a bid in the stock without effecting any real positive change?
$SBUX
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Hedge fund guys like me just don’t fall out the sky you know
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@buccocapital
Imo
1. Labels have SPOT by balls and will keep SPOT in streaming lane
2. Bloated opex: employees barely work (friend works there), gorgeous offices
3. Royalty rates are too high and will likely never go down
4. Losing a ton of $ in podcasts now, TBD if they make $ on it
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Incredible, that’s why P72 is a titan of the industry. Turning 9s into 10s.
Here I am trying to turn my 4-grade analyst into a 7. Wish me luck
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Cleveland calling out credit basically frozen in lodging sector
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2% of customers account for 40% of sales at Neiman Marcus?!
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BBG published select HF performance updates
Citadel remains top dog
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When you nail your high conviction TMT calls but the Fins and Software bros keep losing money
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Two thirds of $MTCH users are in a relationship?
$GRND a horny LinkedIn??
What is going on…
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Get well soon
@finkd
hopefully this means you have more time to identify opex optimization opps in Reality Labs and take losses down from $20B to $15B
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Two questions:
1. Am I supposed to feel sorry for the poor influencers who are trying to make it big?
2. Does this include OnlyFans?
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@typesslowly
P72 at ~120 PMs from what I understand and have >30B
Jain at 5B and 42 PMs…
Big delta
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Palace Hotel is such a poor venue choice for conferences (eg this UBS Consumer one right now)
5th floor conf rooms can only be accessed by certain elevators, layout is a maze, rooms are old, way too many staff hovering
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@CCM_Brett
“Dying” is overstated. Fully penetrated is better.
TikTok user trends are similar to SNAP (also barely growing US DAU count).
TikTok engagement remains strong, and head and shoulders above other platforms. Still owns their demo. Just can’t get older folks on
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At MS conf - Simeon Gutman is a spitting image of Buster from Arrested Development
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My guess on $META earnings:
- Headline Q2 rev/EPS beat
- Q3 rev guide in-line with expectations
- Reit opex but raises capex guide
Stock goes up initially, but then ppl see that Q2 capex also beat, both Susan and Zuck call out the generational investment opp, and stock fades
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OpenAI demo has big Her vibes
Even sounds like Scarlett Johansson
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@LeviathanCapit1
This weakness is the result of DAUs that are -25% down from PRE-COVID levels
Easy compares aren’t going to fix a structurally broken product that has a product-market fit problem
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Would be a savage move if crossover funds all did this and simultaneously shorted $SIVB into the Q
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7/10 de minimis parcels are from China
3/10 de minimis parcels are from Shein and Temu
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Viking casually inhales another +$1B for its flagship fund
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@RihardJarc
Two points:
1. Sorrell bullish comments on digital ad
2. Biz Insider report on improve ad performance
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@MacroAlf
Buy side seems much lower than consensus from what I understand, <$200 for $SPX. But I agree, unclear why sell side has been so slow to revise SPX EPS lower
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So much for the bearish competition thesis on $DKNG
Fanatics acting rationally. $PENN/ESPN not willing to lose more than $300M over 3 years
$DKNG and
@FDSportsbook
scale and superior product is driving market share consolidation and margin expansion - the race is over
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@bucketshopcap
$ETSY
Negative GMV growth, negative buyer growth, margin compression, lapping take rate increases. Multiple is too high for the fundamental outlook
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@MECEMike
At face value hard to draw firm conclusions, but imo anecdotally it’s helpful, similar to the biannual Piper Teen Surveys
For example the Piper survey was early on the $CROX trend
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How is it illegal to boycott advertising on a platform?
This is insane and embarrassing. Improve ROAS and advertisers will come
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From years of efficiency to a multiyear investment cycle in 2 quarters
Gold Chain Zuck giving LOs a reason to stay away
$META
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At a Japanese restaurant with CFO of a >$20B cap biz. Served family style with personal chopsticks only.
Comical to see the gaijin struggling to pick up a piece of sushi.
Pretty sure one guy gave up and stopped eating because he can’t use chopsticks
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$CSGP walking ppl off a cliff by feigning better cost controls on resi investments thru all of 22, only to rip it in 23. Guiding ~500m 23 EBITDA vs ~750m street🤢
Resi competition is fierce, CSGP starting from scratch, $1B rev tgt seems fake/unrealistic, multiple still v healthy
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Multiple examples in this thread of the risk GLP1s have on sectors given concentrated consumption
6/ This 2017 paper looks at 22 more CPG categories: the top 20% of US adults account for…
70% of ice cream consumption
75% of coffee consumption
77% of soda consumption
87% of cigarette consumption
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Zuck
@finkd
went from humanoid robot at congressional hearings in 2018 to MMA fighter / leader of the open-source AI world / gold-chain wearing family man in 2024
Happy birthday Zuck!
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@FatTailCapital
Love the guy. You can hear his double chin whenever he says "two questions if I may"
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Let’s talk about “nice analyst” syndrome.
We have a generation of analysts struggling to understand their negative alpha generation who are acting out in dysfunctional ways.
Let's talk about nice guy syndrome.
We have a generation of men struggling to understand their anger who are acting out in dysfunctional ways:
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@liensofnewyork
What’s your fave part? For me, it’s spending the time to really understand fundamentals of a biz, form a thesis, recognize the r/r is attractive, and being rewarded when stock prints.
Second is bonus szn 🤑
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@Biohazard3737
MMs have diversified PMs, dynamic grossing, and tight risk controls
1. Diversified PMs: industries and styles come and go, any given year there will be PMs who print
2. Dynamic grossing: outperformers grossed up, losers down
3. Tight risk controls: low nets, factor aware
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Anyone here close to $APP?
Seems like it’s going to >$100
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Calling it here - Sundar and Satya going to send the $QQQ higher
If I could attach a song to this tweet it would OBVIOUSLY be Jay-Z x Punjabi MC
$GOOGL $MSFT
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Tried $WING for the first time bc I met with the CFO at Barclays last week
Boneless wings were trash. Sauce is way too commercial and sugary. The breading:meat ratio is way too high.
3/10. Stock on a tear tho 🤷♂️
Sticky’s and Boka are still the NYC fried chicken champs
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Yipit Live showing AWS reaccelerating, $AMZN at 52wk highs, Retail side sounds amazing, and not hearing a peep of the Yipit Live data on fintwit or sell side
Well well well…
I’d like to thank Yipit in advance for setting AWS expectations low with its weekly data.
My prediction: Q3 AWS stabilizes, Q4 QTD better, and $AMZN stock is going higher
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Hate it or love it - Coatue is a marketing machine
Deck from their EMW conference
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@ebitdaddy90
On the furniture side, cheap COGS sourced from Asia/China, with key differentiator being a good merchandiser. Worked on a sell-side middle market furniture retailer back in the day, GMs in the ~65% range. Style and aesthetic weren’t my taste but resonated with the 45+ y/o demo
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$PINS engagement accelerating materially - hard to attribute to the new CEO or Elliott involvement.. on the other hand, $META/insta rolling hard. To be fair, both trends can be attributed to compares, and ST data is always funky
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$META The hopes of Reality Labs cost cuts by reading tea leaves of The Information article are naive.
AI is a generational opp and Zuck has strategically shifted RL resources to it - he thinks in decades and will not save a few $ to appease investors with the stock at highs
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$Z is a lead generation platform. Agents set a % share-of-voice for a zip code and are sent leads they must convert.
If the top-of-funnel shrinks, then presumably the quantity of leads each agent receives will shrink, and assuming agents pay the same $, cost-per-lead increases
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@Biohazard3737
Endless GP-per-script pressure because of PBMs, Front Store (convenience items) is overpriced, shrink issues
All of the above have driven consistent operating margin pressure despite growing script count
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Why does this make me respect Ken Griffin more
Griffin Rips Harvard, Saying US Schools Spawn ‘Whiny Snowflakes’
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Why isn’t $AMZN a screaming long here?
Retail 3P data on fire, Retail cost cuts and focus on profitability, AWS bottoming and should accelerate.
Valuation very reasonable here with upside to 180-200
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Negative network effects are accelerating.
BK is a mobile gaming exec, thinks he can rip pricing and intro weekly subs which is a disguised price increase.
Paying doesn’t equal more matches or a better experience, so ppl are churning and telling their friend about it
People would rather own MTCH at 20-30x earnings w/Tinder subs growing than 12-14x earnings w/subs declining
Rip the bandaid off my friends
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@bucketshopcap
Going off on a tangent here, but a CIO I know hiring software analysts has been underwhelmed by the software talent pool. A sign of the crowding in software over the last few years imo.
Gotta gotta take what people “cover” with a grain of salt.
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Gary Friedman looks like the entitled trust fund baby of Mark Walhberg and Larry Ellison.
Chasing a $7-$10 TRILLION TAM, quoting Picasso in shareholder letters
How can you short $RH?
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Ellie from $ABNB firing shots at Nowak 😂
“Is cautious the same as bearish”
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Munger: “one standard set of advice for all difficulties: suck it in and cope”
@ 38 min mark
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I’m really hoping gold-chain Zuck at UFC300 over the weekend and on his IG post yest did not signal NT market highs
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This isn’t what Sunday Scaries are, but it is Sunday and this is scary
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If I enforced a policy of one push-up per mistake, my analyst would have a chest as strong as a gorilla
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@Three12Capital
Only 2x? Life in L/S goes by like dog years.
Humans aren’t meant to manage the stress of a daily PNL
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@qcapital2020
So many confirmation bias traps. 3P data, expert calls, colleagues at other funds, sell-side, or mgmt.
The sheer volume of info and data has made me susceptible to groupthink in the past too - why we see so much crowding in names that then go the other way
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@hfreflection
We have a fixed carry % piece, and a discretionary piece.
Fixed was generous (imo), and would generally increase annually.
Discretionary piece was a question mark, would range from 0x-2x the equity component, and it wasn’t entirely PNL based.
Most folks were happy
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