The Giver
@lazyvillager1
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Megafund investor & fmr IBD (DMs open) | Non-consensus / value cross-assets | Comments are not investment advice | Subscribe: https://t.co/65m7sbhGxX
Stream live sometimes on TG →
Joined October 2021
In all seriousness unless I am missing something this news reads like SBR-Lite-Lite. It seems they haven't actually decided what they are going to do with the BTC but are committing to taking a serious look RE: announcement of an announcement. It seems some think this is bullish.
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1/ @danielesesta announced today that $TIME is exiting the (3,3) space and pivoting toward the SPAC model. As a former investment banker, I've worked on SPAC transactions & pitches, and have friends who work in business dev. at such co's post de-SPAC. Herein lies my thoughts:.
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The Chicken or the Egg: The Trump Trade and Bitcoin's Glass Ceiling. This is a very long thread and intends to capture my iterative development around Bitcoin's price ascension since October 15th, and to re-affirm original views made around my guest appearance on @1000xPod.
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1/ Hi all - w/ the rapidly rising popularity of t-backed coins (re: OHM forks), I attempt to model out near-term price action and long-term longevity looking at $OHM, $TIME, $IN, $SB and $SDOG (in my view the 5 most popular / highly traded) to find value.
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@RasterlyRock Okay but why did you frame it like 0.5B that’s the equivalent of saying you’re 0.002 KM tall.
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The Ethical Long: Cycles and Capital Formation. Since August 11th/12th, I began writing thoughts to capture my mental model around identifying inefficient capital allocation in crypto assets, and the market forces that drive positioning on the margin – which I believe is
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Why I think ETH is a highly asymmetric long here.(1 post, very simple, no thread) . I discussed the below on my stream yesterday (around $2700) but I believe very few people have thought about ETH (from a price perspective, not technical) more than I have from both sides (short
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Macro & The Ethereum Trade. This is a very long thread and intends to capture my iterative development around ETH from ~$3200. This is not suggesting you long or short ETH in any capacity, but rather my view on market forces & fundamental analysis underpinning flows. Today's.
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My BASE Case for where the puck is going next. Since Trump's win on 11/5, COIN and BTC have led the way forward (+70% and +16%, respectively). My bias remains in ETH and adjacent to a thread I wrote back in October around memecoins (following tweet), I believe that multiple
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A brief SOLiloquy (short thread). Herein are some brief thoughts on what I believe should be relative (and believe this has already started, but should continue) downside for Solana in December against other assets. I am short from ~$235-240 and believe this is the last great
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Many have interpreted the grift & GCR’s tweet that the cycle is over, with confluence from the lack of crypto mention in Trump’s speech. I believe this may be the most asymmetric time to be long in the next 4 years wrt expectations against the reward of a positive EO.
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Only those who have made the bulk of money and relevance thru crypto with zero tangible skills outside of this industry opt in to shit on crypto afterwards. If you done anything remotely rigorous beforehand you would be grateful everyday for the market inefficiency / opportunity.
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I believe that given refreshed demand/supply dynamics and recourse around changed sentiment these last few days there is fuel for a push for 100K+, possibly 105-110K in the next 2 weeks. I am positioning for this with very long pos'n; this is the most long I have been since.
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Stoic Strength: Memecoins and Their Role in Portfolio Construction . "Memecoin dominance" has been topical YTD, with premiums accruing to both new (WIF, PEPE, MOG and POPCAT to be coined herein as the "Big Four") and old (retention of value via DOGE and SHIB, return of 2021-borne
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Am initiating a starter short on TRUMP at ~$35 with room to add at ~$43 (if we get there). I do not view DOGE and SHIB as good comparables during a very different time of recovering and much more concentrated liquidity (fewer selection and breadth of assets vs what is more.
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1/ BIG THREAD 3 - I am about to kill all node projects. I don't normally ask for RTs but if you like this, please share/comment/etc so we can STOP THE CAP. Have been tweeting against nodes for ~ a month now and I'm getting increasingly frustrated by seeing CT $$ burned to zero
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I bought some fartcoin to supplement my spot bags . I like that it doesn't really fit into any theme. There's also an inertia with how stupid it sounds & how upset Gen X / Boomers get when they see it; organically adds to the legacy.
Seeing Sven lose his mind on Twitter is a very compelling proposition to long the coins he hates.
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1/ My thoughts on $APE as a response to @DegenSpartan's prompt on why this is gaining so much momentum. I took a long position twice - today at ~$8.50 (exited at $11.20 on a stop) and re-entered just now at $12.50
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1/ Hi all - I am making a new thread discussing @SnowdogDAO, @SnowbankDAO's acclaimed driver of millennial attention to yield, investment and crypto in a fun and engaging way. Similar to my 1st thread, model and financial analysis attached first.
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Imagine seeing the HL airdrop and then thinking that check website + have to download mobile app + import wallet into said app + scan QR code on desktop + then go back to website and link each wallet . Is okay for your airdrop. Retardio.
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just remember who the real bulls were. giver x owen confluence.
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Essay: Making the Case for Ethereum. This essay is the culmination of pts 1-3 I have published, where I opine around:. Pt. 1: Timing of flows.Pt. 2: The merge of TradFi participants into CryptoFi.Pt. 3: Re-imagining "yield". Punchline: I believe ETH is greatly misunderstood and
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An Essay on Liquidity and Crypto Assets.Pt. 1 of 3: Where Do We Go This Year. I have expressed this to close friends and FT recently but believe the cycle top is closer to today than what most people give credit toward. The most common adage I hear is that we are due for "higher"
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Z gets no credit for this so I will say it for him: he is S tier at talent scouting . Not talking about coins. HUMANS! He has put on a lot of strong accts on CT. To name a few: rhino, owen, kel, chumba. If you’re looking to hire - just go thru his #FF lists. take a look 4 urself.
being kind to people really goes a long way.
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i heard the barbershops be in great debates all the time Bout who's the best MC?. gcr, light, hp, cobie, thiccy/zlex, defi2, rhino, owen, smartest, hsc. im usually homeboys with the same fellas I'm speaking with And that goes for. pigeon, felix, huss, evan, Z, horse, chumba,.
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My immediate 3 takeaways / critiques:. - I don’t think it should be held against him that he is well off to begin with. I do not know the exact specifics behind his family but it should be laudable if he is trying to create his own brand vs living off his dad’s. - I do think he.
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Think about this quote from @mgnr_io last cycle a lot:. In discretionary the right position is almost always flat. do nothing. 5x / yr there's free money on the floor . pick it up. then do nothing. outperformance.
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Any Sailors left in December?. I am expressing a LTF short around BTC off the following factors:.1) Saylor is possibly done bidding this month & next.2) As a continuation of 1), low seasonality diminishes the required re-allocation to BTC that would otherwise be needed for a.
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Funding rates and why they are not what they seem. Funding is often used as a heuristic to evaluate leverage that is being layered on. The punch-line being that when funding gets high, this is a symptom of an an over-heated market and possibly, the lack of stability & an
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there has never been a better use of this meme than for exhibiting views on fartcoin if we are being honest
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Just took a look at the chart. If 98 holds we should be good at least until 97. If we lose 97 then 96 is in play. Bulls don’t want to see below 95. Or else 94 gets breached and we know that means - 93. Lights out under 93, complete air until 92. Not much activity done either at.
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Shower thoughts on Hyperliquid ($HYPE). > Literally in the shower typing this on my phone. Generally stray from chipping in on single names directly and everyone has thrown in their hats already so this may not be too novel. Also I’m not the strongest when it comes to alt.
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Scalping. Swinging. HODLing. Larping. My grandmother used to tell me stories about when He was top 7 on the FTX leaderboard, a time of peace when GCR kept balance between the Scalping Scoundrels, Swinging Swords, HODLing Homers, and Larping Lemons. But that all changed when the.
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Many lack understanding of who/what is really driving these markets and have not capitulated, assuming that PA today is just an over-reaction to yday's comments by Powell. This includes those on CT, but importantly, almost everyone on other platforms - ETF buyers, Reddit, Tiktok.
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@gammichan Can’t beleive they are not showing instead HYPE, FARTCOIN, AIXBT, CHILLGUY, TRX and RSR….
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you guys are not ready for what I’m about to tweet in a few hours lmao.
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Presented without comment
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GCR - despite his being 1 of my biggest inspirations - has had a Burry-like effect on CT. Given his forecasting has been so otherworldly, many simply see the the tip of the iceberg & emulate just the prophetic writing style, as if the simplicity alone comprised fully the process.
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In contrast to people who believe that 100K is the line to activate impulsive buying, I believe that it is the line for people to sell. I believe we will start seeing more jumpy / day to day negative outflows. It is possible Saylor will try to raise a 2-3B CB but that is likely
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SOL has rallied significantly hard in the last 2 weeks (at least partially due to a TRUMP sink) and believe there is at least a quorum of thought around the fact that the SOL ETF approval may be today after the initial 19b4 filings by Canary / 21Shares / VanEck that happened on.
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@real_y22 DMs open . at the end of the day when you are making decisions agonizing over your personal net worth it's impossible to be fully rational. that is often what comes of over-sizing . it is the same as playing at a high-stakes poker table with your rent money as your buy-in.
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Just to put into perspective FBTC has never gone over a ~$475M day . So wrt the 2nd biggest vehicle for both BTC & ETH . FETH just put up a day that did ~50% of the flows re: the biggest FBTC day ever.
[🌲] Fidelity (FETH) Daily ETH Flows: +202.7m: BBG.
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I rarely S/O people but very few people actually have the ability to consistently select & screen alts on a HTF basis. Even fewer people can actually do this on a LTF basis. It is simply too hard to do so across constantly changing metas. I cannot. This will sound crazy because.
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As more products get ETFs I think that is incrementally more bearish for ETH as the only live alternative to BTC (for now). The moat of first mover quickly erodes. Attn is on XRP/SOL for now but think odds for ETFs around other assets may be underpriced now esp after TRUMP launch.
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@AraRawr11 lack of mutuals for milady accounts has got to actually be one of the most legit arguments I’ve seen for this.
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What is the USD-YEN carry trade? Why does an unwind matter? Why is MUFG down 21% on mkt-open? . A carry trade is very simple: you buy something with margin underpinned by the same asset class. Eg. I want to start a grass-cutting business. But I have no money to buy equipment so.
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JPOW quite dovish here no? Just said that the plots don't actually reflect how much he thinks they will cut.
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imagine being bearish on anything Trump related going into the inauguration can’t be me.
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If you caught the 5AM stream I explained why I shoved in the chips and flipped long. > how did he know. Feels great making money being long again. The tech really improved overnight just like that
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“Who is selling” . The better question is “who was buying”.
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He just retweeted this after saying he didn’t know anything about it. Real Gs move in silence.
My NEW Official Trump Meme is HERE! It’s time to celebrate everything we stand for: WINNING! Join my very special Trump Community. GET YOUR $TRUMP NOW. Go to — Have Fun!
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Good thoughts. However @AviFelman there is a near-0% chance that Saylor is able to $8B purely via ATM thru EOM. If you actually think this, would bet here for a free 7 to 1: It is not at Saylor's discretion how much he is able to sell. However it may be.
I consistently give my map of the markets on this podcast, I suggest listening to this one as it details my plans for the next 3-6 weeks. You won't find general platitudes. Additionally, we discuss the plans for the @1000xAgent.
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1/ An essay: .- Digesting risk as it pertains to your own life.- Parallels between investing & poker (or other zero-sum games).- My big bet (hint: AI x Crypto). Some theory by a former banker and current investor.
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I will flip and 100x long if I keep seeing posts like this.
thread about a hypothetical so over. (1) bitcoin fails to break the high again and rolls over into another multi-month slump where we retest the 50k low and potentially break it, bringing us back into a classic crypto bear forcing us to sit around for years waiting for good times.
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My first take is that this is not priced in. A few people will try to point to today and yday’s PA around the selling but the entities responsible for selling were different (CB yday and Nance today). The ruling was also made on 12/30, but there were 3 green days since (1/2, 1/3,.
The US Govt has been given the greenlight to liquidate 69,000 BTC ($6.5B) from Silk Road, an official confirmed to DB News today. Interesting situation less than 2 weeks away from the new admin who vowed to not sell
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Some addl thoughts around the HYPE NFT
Going to say this again and again. Team does all the little things well. Things that most teams think don’t “move the needle.” And they wouldn’t in isolation but it adds up. Airdrop vs competing gas to claim. $0 cost basis to control LTCG and FY of selling vs income in 2024.
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Day in the life of me. 7-8 AM Wake up. 8-830AM Tell myself I have enough time to go to the gym. Open price apps. Open TG. Send back turtle shaking head sticker. Open Twitter. Reply to dude2639 because he actually read my thread and has a question . 830-9AM Realize I cut it too.
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A cat just made ETH go up $60 (so far) and you’re telling me markets are efficient?.
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1/ To start the year in 2022, wanted to share a few musings on:. - the psychology of crypto and de-coupling performance from identity .- getting addicted to being over-active.- why copy-trading isn't a winning strategy. This is a follow-up to a request that a follower made.
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1/ I will likely be early as I typically am but below is a short thesis on Friend Tech by @0xRacerAlt . I am a value/distressed guy and think that today / next few weeks is when you want to start getting re-acclimated to the platform.
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What type of response is this to your fellow man, actually fucking disturbing . back office.
Imagine how OFAC will react to a no KYC centralized exchange with North Korean activity (4 closed source validators = centralized).
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235. Believe this is the widest the CB discount has been since May 2021?.
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This is my TL;DR for how @friendtech unlocks crypto to the masses. I expect TVL to grow substantially in the next 3 months as v2 releases. When CT speaks in terms of institutional adoption they think of creation via 2 ways:. 1. buying into stretchy valuations on coins -.
1/ I will likely be early as I typically am but below is a short thesis on Friend Tech by @0xRacerAlt . I am a value/distressed guy and think that today / next few weeks is when you want to start getting re-acclimated to the platform.
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No one say anything but Kole getting blown out on his shorts and having his positions closed (either forcibly or manually) has literally marked a local top 3/3 times now where price cascades down only a few days later.
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Covered almost everything. Best day in Q4 for me. Could go lower still but honestly have had cardiac arrest holding these shorts for 2 weeks so need to take a break and revisit later.
In contrast to people who believe that 100K is the line to activate impulsive buying, I believe that it is the line for people to sell. I believe we will start seeing more jumpy / day to day negative outflows. It is possible Saylor will try to raise a 2-3B CB but that is likely
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The Japan Trade. On 8/5 midnight, the BOJ announced an emergency meeting at 2AM ET / 3 PM Tokyo time (t + 2 hours). Nikkei had already rallied on Monday-open, and most of Twitter was either inactive or not paying attention (IMO). In those 2 hours, I researched various paths
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De-levered. Am stabled 85% otherwise; remaining is spot in what I perceive as best in class systems (FART, BASE coins, HYPE/PURR, ETH) to capture the remaining right tail upside. Will look to be active next 2 weeks still but I imagine I am done the higher conviction swings thru.
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I am v stubborn. The 73K short 1 wk going into election w/ Sunday/Monday full-stack TP + chill & anxiety-free watch elections + scaling into ETH after 1 day of flows & jamming it in at 27/2800 on that type of pivot is the best 2 weeks of trading I have ever had. The sheer.
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ETHBTC / ETHUSD may appear to revive as the only notable catalyst remaining to look fwd to. Think exit door is v small personally (vol pinned) and is a minigame of thinking we are frontrunning masses; in reality a transfer of wealth to one another. ETF flows LTF will in/validate.
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Have been short for a while and given the move the last 48H will now discuss why. It has been an extremely under covered view (AKA have not seen anyone discuss this) that:. - cross asset buying (everything going up) on a correlated basis indicates panic/chasing rather than flows.
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The glass ceiling: why it exists. To summarize, I believe the order of operations looks like the below:.1. Capital was activated after what was likely the US Government sell-off (CB discount) and MSTR front-running via the premium expansion driving us from 59 to 61. 2. The rise.
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easy liquidity creates greedy insiders.greedy insiders create hard liquidity.hard liquidity creates great founders.great founders create easy liquidity.
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this is a dip for ants. long your longs if you are truly bullish.
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I was bearish / faded the most recent weekend pump (and generally we have seen weekend PA retrace). However think there may be a good chance there is pent-up demand that fills in starting Monday post-S1 news on Friday (was after-market) on ETH. Majors underperformed vs equities.
Runner w cogent thoughts as usual. De risked 75% of my ETH on this pump . Welcome to being wrong but a“real” ETH move will only be led by two things:. 1. Real progress being made on the ETF. 2. The last leg of this cycle marked by a rise in the most “risk-off” asset <- market has.
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Defensive positioning entering the week. Reflecting on how crypto assets have moved in parallel to other asset classes this month/week - crypto participants are pretty used to looking at a 200D EMA in graph form - but how do these ranges look relative to other asset classes?
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Am seeing discourse on "why" the ship is sinking which is to say: is there something integrally wrong w how the ship was constructed (rewind) or is this just a hole we can just plug up with tape (pullback into higher). Main reasons I see on timeline are:.1) lack of attention.2).
An Essay on Liquidity and Crypto Assets.Pt. 1 of 3: Where Do We Go This Year. I have expressed this to close friends and FT recently but believe the cycle top is closer to today than what most people give credit toward. The most common adage I hear is that we are due for "higher"
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Being good at memes is a very relevant and unique form of skill expression. I am telling you this as someone who has spent many years building models from scratch on credits/equities, having built numerous 50+ pg PowerPoints and having presented to CEOs & fund heads for $15B+.
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A case study on Microstrategy. I believe Microstrategy is one of the most misunderstood vehicles today: rather than being a simple HoldCo for BTC, I believe it resembles a FIG (NOLs are covered by new capital raises) and that the core business is centered around generating
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(1/x). gm this is my exit from stealth post; my last long-form essay was ~2 years ago. during this time I have continued to work in TradFi; I currently work in an UMM/MF tac opps strategy in NY. i pen some thoughts here on where I see institutional flows novel to crypto.
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Saying this for hopefully the last time - the FTX recycle is nice, but very over-estimated to the point of irrelevance . ~12B in unencumbered claims, at least half if not more out the ecosystem via distressed credit funds. Of the remainder that isn't direct P2P with a fund,.
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ETH hits $3K by Friday or meat reveal.
Meat reveal if ETH closes weekly above 2800.
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1/ GM. As we enter the next week, I wanted to share some thoughts on: . - Preserving capital via early/partial exits w/ the re-intent to invest later .- What I've seen this week, and how I've adapted.- The notion of passive income, and why I feel like it is being over-embellished.
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