SF is now the most popular political party in all public opinion polls.
So, rather than lazily assuming some malevolent manipulation is at hand, if one is serious about winning them back you need to understand how this has happened and who this *third* of voters are.
1/
This place is actually stupid.
When schools are closed in Ireland:
Mid term break 👍
Christmas 👍
Summer holidays 👍
Bank holidays 👍
Week of snow 👍
Bit of wind 👍
Deadly virus ripping through the country?
"nah, think of the economy" 🙄🙄
Constituency with the most poverty (54% of kids in poverty) is Bethnal Green & Bow in London. It voted remain (69%).
What is it about places with a high % of non-whites that they can be ignored by wealthy white leavers in their pure people vs corrupt elite narrative?
"You guys should get out of London. Go and talk to people who are not rich Remainers"
Boris Johnson's top aide, Dominic Cummings, is asked about his "next move" – as Parliament is suspended for five weeks, after passing a law aimed at blocking no deal
Complete nonsense to delay aggressive measures to contain
#COVID19ireland
because the public aren't able for it.
The WHO urged for EARLY aggressive measures a week ago.
Many, many leading doctors and epidemiologist argue to move NOW rather than later.
Notwithstanding specific circumstances it is worth remarking on how Sweden ended up in unrelenting restrictions for much of the year. While New Zealand, which responded quicker and aggressively to rises in cases had a very open economy for most of the year.
So to sum: SF is one part populism, one part left wing, and one part economically disadvantaged. And for the most part these features mostly overlap with one another.
12/12
Looking at the cases by county it really does shoot off once the number of cases per 100k gets over a certain level.
14-day incidence rate of Covid-19 per 100,000 people.
The caricature about the working class has to stop.
If I had 20 unskilled manual labourers in a room how many would we expect to be in favour of Leave or Remain?
Answer: 10 Leave, 10 Remain
If I got 20 people aged over 70?
Answer: 13 Leave, 7 Remain
Src: YouGov/DataPraxis
The average number of close contacts is high because many ringing in these days contracted this awful virus on Xmas Day, when guidelines suggested 3 households could congregate.
Blaming people for contracting the virus is deeply, deeply unproductive for test, trace, isolate.
I've been doing them for since before they were cool and I'm going to do a little rant about the public MrPs.
In terms of the Labour majority public MrPs vary here by about 200 seats.
One of the reasons for this is down to the distributions. The 11 MrPs (and 1 SRP) are shown
Every country in the world has seen exponential growth in covid cases.
We're at 9 cases but our hospitals we have 14k beds compared to say 160k for the UK so our urgency should be 12 times that of the UK on a case by case basis.
Close all schools, mass gatherings immediately
Should the Irish government do more than they are currently in terms of closing schools and banning mass gatherings with a view to preventing the rise of covid19 cases.
Some detail on how people in Ireland stayed at home, flattened the curve and saved many lives in doing so.
(Using a bit of python and R you can: convert google mobility PDFs into SVG files, turn the graphs into raw csv files, apply some KF smoothing, and ggplot!)
Italy and Japan have shut their schools. It slows the spread and buys time for hospital capacity, treatments, vaccines and more knowledge and therefor wreduxes the overall mortality rate. It's a no brainer.
Just a terminology thing, a 'Grand Coalition' is where the two largest parties of opposite ideologies to form a government. FF and FG, in this case, are neither of these things.
With a very similar number of ICU beds & ventilators New Zealand is an interesting comparison.
Stats on the day they issued a lockdown (everyone stay in doors & businesses close):
Ireland 1,819 cases (19 deaths)
New Zealand 205 (0)
Also like that the gov texted everyone.
Religion.
An extensive literature links religiosity, politics and economic preferences (e.g Scheve and Stasavage 2006; Stegmueller et al. 2012) suggesting that religion anchors working class voters to right wing parties.
And since the '80s religiosity has declined considerably.
A reasonably strong correlation between areas with people in unskilled or semi-skilled work (lower socioeconomic grades) and areas where Covid is on the rise. [Dublin only]
Only two years ago support for Sinn Féin was getting close to FF and FG combined.
In the locals they're right back down to 2016 general election levels, where both FF and FG are twice as popular as SF.
#LE24
"But Sinn Féin aren't left wing they're..."
Not true. Their supporters do predominantly self-identify as left wing. (The following data relates to the 2020 GE)
6/
Declining partisan loyalty, declining religosity, and declining homeownership has facilitated an increase in the number of people self-identifying as left-wing. (Particularly in working class communities). The below chart is from
@Aidan_Regan
and
@ste_mueller
.
4/
Local versus general election voting intentions highlight the disjoint between locals and generals.
43% of voters voting for a local election candidate in a party different to their preferred general election party.
This is the problem I've been banging on about. It would be prudent to act earlier rather than later.
Tbh this is the last thing I want to be doing, I'm meant to be an independent pollster but sometimes some things are more important.
⚠️Doctors in
#Italy
warn Europe to “get ready” for
#coronavirus
, saying ~10% of
#COVID19
patients need ICU care, and hospitals are overwhelmed.
“Increase your total ICU capacity...prepare ICU areas (for) patients – in every hospital if necessary.”
#1
. Long term demographic trends have changed opportunities for the left.
Support for FF plus FG has declined consistently since 1980. The trend since the 1980s is important and consistent with demographic changes in that period. Most notably...
2/
Public and jury votes for Israel in the Eurovision. Some people seem confused about the 10 points from Ireland, which would appear to be out of step with general public opinion. But Eurovision voting isnt representative.
1/5
Labour Leavers are loyal to Labour for a reason!
They care least about the EU and most about Health/Education/Housing. While their concern for immigration caused them to vote Leave, it is still too much of a leap to vote Conservative on the basis of Immigration and the EU.
But I know where this is going and yes..
#2
. SF benefits from populist opinion. When asked, SF voters cite 'change' & 'FF/FG' as their primary motivations. 81% don't trust most politicians.
(read populism as a disaffection with elites; not advocating popular policies)
7/
Opinium's poll showing a 15 point Tory lead (in Observer/Sun/Express/Mail) over-represents: 2016 Leave Voters, Tory 2017 Voters, %Labour Leavers and %Tory Leavers.
This is why it is (again) completely at odds with all 8 other pollsters operating in the UK.
So, more people are more open to supporting a party that is *overtly* defined as left wing. And have they?
Yes. Ireland had much lower levels of support for these parties at about ~15% in the 80s but today is no different from other Euro democracies with ~30% (and rising).
5/
Indeed if you were to exclude non mass-goers from the 2020 general election, the composition looks remarkably familiar (though not quite) like the old two-and-a-half party system (except SF replacing Labour).
3/
Relatedly, it's no surprise that SF have nudged up in the context of the Zappone scandal. Perceptions of corruption is perhaps the strongest predictor of their support.
8/
Instead it is a left wing populism that seems more rooted in economic disaffection.
Hidden in aggregate economic statistics of a relatively succesful economic model is the fact that some are not doing *as well* as others.
And they tend to vote for SF.
9/
Interesting to see changes in growth rate of covid19 cases in Italy. Takes a week or so to see the impact of a lockdown.
For reference:
Date - Area under lockdown
Feb 22nd - Municipalities affected
March 8th - 1/4 of the country
March 9th - Entire country
Aaron knows nothing about the Labour Party.
Anyone who has done *anything* for the Labour party would know that the party have been using predictive modelling for a long, long time right down to the probability of someone being at home at a given time of the day.
@PolhomeEditor
are they 'polling experts'. I agree that Labour needs *top* people in sentiment analysis, predictive modelling, machine learning.
What Labour presently has is none of these. Miles behind the Tories - I've yet to meet anyone say otherwise tbh.
"Ireland is taking in 195 Refugees from Afghanistan in response to developments in the country. Is this number...?"
Results broken down by party.
Mail on Sunday/Ireland Thinks, August 21st
Regardless of one's opinion on MHQ, as an academic it is depressing to see how other academics can dedicate their career to the study of a subject and merely be regarded as "activists" in an article consisting of its own sweeping evidence-free assertions.
So what is this left wing part of SF populism about.
Firstly it's not about social issues. SF voters don't necessarily adopt a liberal perspective on issues such as immigration. (Note that Ireland's far right is spread across a couple of places, but mainly Independents).
9/
The economy, stupid:
- Incomes are stagnant
- House prices have risen sharply over decades; But
- Inflation is low; Therefore
- Pensioners are insulated, wealthier; Which is why
- Pensioners are most positive on the economy; Thus
- Age is a very strong predictor voting behaviour
Worth saying that many argued for this months ago. Early aggressive action (in terms of the severity of the response given the quantity of covid), and the false dichotomy between healthcare and economics in the context of covid.
“New Zealanders are enjoying a near-normal, pre-coronavirus lifestyle, with no social distancing & spectators allowed at sports and cultural events, but with the border strictly controlled & all arrivals required to spend 14 days in quarantine.” 100 days & no new cases.
Evidence that the GP surveys (
@gpbuddy
) produce a useful early warning system.
The chart shows how estimates from GPs rise and fall a couple of days in advance of the confirmed cases (with time series modelling explaining residuals).
It also shows the surge ahead.
For what it's worth, the hotel quarantine policy was also polled in July and November when cases were lower.
And it was pretty much as popular then as it is now.
One difference now is that those in charge are under greater scrutiny, inter-party competition.
#RallyRoundTheFlag
As President I hold the power to summon the Dáil as well as dissolve it. So as i said before, I would have all the answers the people of Ireland seek from these thieves of the working man, these disrupters of the family unit, these destructors of small businesses, and on and on
Something I'm always banging on about is how the census significantly overestimates the number of homeowners due to the fact that homeownership is enumerated at the household rather than individual adult level. The no of adults living at home with their parents is enormous today.
🚨
#GE2020
POLL 🚨
Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes
(January 2-14, MoE 3.3%)
Fianna Fáil 32 (+5 in four weeks)
Fine Gael 20 (-7)
Sinn Féin 19 (-1)
Greens 7 (+1)
Labour 4 (-2)
Independent Alliance 3 (+1)
Solidarity-PBP 2 (-1)
Social Democrats 1
Renua 1 (+1)
Inds and others 10
Some interesting movements in the
@DatapraxisEU
@YouGov
poll.
(Note: please don't take as "working class voters are all rabid remainers now". There's a lot more to this that isn't in this thread. e.g., changes in status quo, depoliticisation of immigration, size of the change)
For those that think that the rise of the far right is a new phenomenon related to new technology, it really isn't.
The following chart is 9 years old (it was for my PhD proposal!) and shows the % support for far-right parties averaged across nineteen western European countries.
My analysis of Peterborough by election:
Good result for Labour who won the by election.
Bad result for the Brexit Party, Tories and Lib Dems who did not win the by election.
I never know how to deal with people who who think they understand polling but haven't quite grasped how advanced things are behind the curtain.
I have some sympathy because there was a time when I would have agreed with the skepticism about online polling and indeed there is
Very strong relationship between (Ivana Bacik's) Labour gains and Eamon Ryan's Green vote in the 2020 general election (from the tally electoral district data).
Aka 'Watermelon greens'🍉
With thanks to
@breakaway_ian
and
@gavreilly
for the data on this.
#DublinBaySouth
Coronavirus growth rates by country.
Singapore and Japan in particular used aggressive methods to effectively shut down the country. The quicker you move to 11% growth the longer you have to deal with the problem. Survival rates seem to depend on hospital capacity.
Shanghai is using these ultraviolet lights to disinfect buses. The process takes “5 to 7 minutes per bus” and kills “more than 99.9 per cent of viruses”.
Things you won't read because they don't scream off the page/twittersphere...
- Macron is a relatively popular president.
- Le Pen has moderated her party's offering.
When we look back we'll realize how irresponsible governments have been in this entire crisis. Far, far too focused on avoiding "panic" without exploring how panic comes about, what it means and looking more closely at the greater risk of complacency.
So, the last week I have been battling COVID-19 & Pneumonia. Never in my life have I been this ill. “Young people aren’t at risk, they’ll only have mild symptoms” Wrong.
I want to open up about the difficulties I’ve gone through these past days, what it was like in the ICU...
Little too early to tell what will happen in Ireland, but at least in London where omicron emerged much earlier, in terms of mechanical ventilation requirements the numbers are still still stubbornly low.
Got to have another really enjoyable chat with
@davidmcw
.
This time what the demise of the SDP/Liberal Alliance in 1982 tells us about the demise of Fianna Fáil in 2020.
Listen to the full podcast here:
Morning all. Here’s a chart showing how much wealth you will own by the time you are 50. If you are born recently not so much...
#GenerationEquality
basically Millennials are poorer ..
If you add these up, they add to 44 in the first column and 56 in the second column. The latest polls show also that current support in favour of leaving is roughly 46 and remaining 54.
Irish twitter in the last two months amounts to an awful understanding of statistics; liked and shared hundreds of times because they fit popular priors.
It can feel pointless spending the time doing something actually robust to find sth interesting (that doesn't fit priors).
Speech from Nicola Sturgeon outlining how Scotland will deviate from UK policy and introduce 'managed quarantine' for *all* arrivals.
Citing current system as "too reactive as often by the time the new variant has been identified..it will have already spread across borders"
"Those polls we're way off...I do think there are questions about how accurate those polls are"
- FF candidate
Polling for same candidate:
Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks (May)6%
Other public poll (May)9%
Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks (June)5.3%
Result6.4%
Latest Savanta Comres gives Labour a 15pt lead.
However, if you look at the part of the poll that includes undecideds (Table 2) and compare it to the previous Comres polls (as below) it suggests a lot of Tory supporters have become undecided rather than Labour.
1/3
While there is something to be said for a general underestimation of FF, the scale is overestimated here. A lot of FF & FG voters in this set of local elections were voting for the candidate and NOT the party.
The 'No' column here are those with a party-based allegiance.
Opinion Pollsters should be asked why online opinion polls consistently underestimate
@fiannafailparty
support. Opinion polls can often set news agendas and headlines. Editors who publish them should ask about their real-life reliability.