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Michael Gallagher
@MichaelgTCD
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Emeritus professsor political science Trinity College Dublin. Co-editor How Ireland Voted 2020 (Springer 2021) and of next in series, How Ireland Voted 2024.
Dublin, Ireland
Joined June 2024
@wrafter_colin Cost/benefit of introducing this for Dáil elections less clear-cut; at that level there doesn’t seem to be a ‘problem’ that needs fixing, & there would certainly be some public resistance & suspicion. Whereas for Seanad panel seats, benefits are clear and no evident downside.
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Small N of votes at Seanad elns but takes long time to count them. Complexity of counting rules, with counts and sub-counts, inside & outside nominees, means computerised counting has big advantage over manual. And ballot papers are retained so can be checked in case of dispute.
@MichaelgTCD Good point… but do you want to cause another civil war?!
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@DonnchaLaw Small N of votes at Seanad elns but takes long time to count them. Complexity of counting rules, with counts and sub-counts, inside & outside nominees, means computerised counting has big advantage over manual. And ballot papers are retained so can be checked in case of dispute.
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Gap between them widened from 31 at end of count yesterday to 64 today. Bearing in mind that counting errors can be expected to be random (ie as many will benefit one candidate as will benefit the other), that's a surprisingly large switch-around.
Aubrey McCarthy has been confirmed as the winner of the final TCD #se25 seat - the recount today has resulted in a relatively small increase in his lead over Hazel Chu. He’ll join Lynn Ruane and Tom Clonan in the next Seanad.
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@AnMailleach Greens didn't run more than one candidate in any Dáil constituency, so this will be the only intra-Green transfer of the entire election.
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@dkennytcd Yes, good point – the 1997 amendment (passed 53–47) made explicit an absolute confidentiality (except in very limited circumstances) that prior to 1992 judgment was at best implicit, maybe not even that. As @anmailleach says, Daly case & judgment will be v interesting.
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The idea that only the 15 cabinet ministers can attend government meetings and that all cabinet discussions must be completely confidential among those 15 people is based largely on Supreme Court’s surprising 3-2 decision in 1992 in cabinet confidentiality case. 1/2
I'm not sure it will be successful, but it should be interesting to see the issue debated...Sinn Féin TD launches High Court action against ‘unconstitutional’ attendance of junior ministers at Cabinet
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Increase in junior ministerial positions from 20 to 23 means that FF & FG now have 18 of these to divide between them. FF have 48 seats, FG 38, and both Sainte-Laguë and D’Hondt PR formulae point to FF 10, FG 8 as the fairest outcome here. With 19 it would have been FF 11, FG 8.
With Regional Inds having 4 of the 20 junior min positions, PR formula Sainte-Laguë (even-handed, unlike D’Hondt) would have allocated the remaining 16 by awarding 9 to FF and 7 to FG. So it looks as if it was FF that gave up one junior min position to bring Healy-Raes on board.
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@Argyle Queen Margrethe, Mette Frederiksen, Hans Christian Andersen, Hamlet Prince of Denmark ... We gave your boys a hell of a beating!
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@AnMailleach @Edward__Burke John Coakley is the authority on these matters. In Reforming Political Institutions (2013) p. 103 he refers to an old tradition of university seats in parliaments, with further reading suggested, but doesn’t state whether TCD is the oldest to have this representation.
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