Kate The Alt
@kate_young_ju
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Data analysis for altcoins | Alt account of @ki_young_ju | Opinions are my own
Joined May 2021
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Someone(s) bought $1.7B worth $ETH futures contracts in an hour.
It's 7-month biggest hourly volume in market orders.
Live Chart 👇
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ETH is undervalued.
Undervalued only if it would successfully launch $ETH 2.0. PoS believers expect it goes higher than $2k.
As of today, 10% of the supply is locked in the ETH 2.0 deposit contract. And the stakers' entry price is now $2,375, -50% from the current price.
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Stablecoin whales are accumulating $ETH at unprecedented levels.
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My time frame is long-term.
I expect
#Bitcoin
's bull market to continue until mid-next year, with alt season likely occurring at the end of this year or early next year.
My focus is on identifying altcoins being accumulated by whales and holding steady in the coming months.
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Buy walls are forming for altcoins with both stablecoin and
#Bitcoin
pairs, but volumes are still low.
If alt season means a surge in volume, it's not here yet.
Now's the time to research promising alts for the next bull run—time might be short once Bitcoin hits a new ATH.
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$ETH short squeezes for the last two consecutive days.
Daily short liquidations across all exchanges reached an all-time high.
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It’s still uncertain whether
#Bitcoin
is in a long-term bear market. If BTC stays above the $45K level, I believe the market could recover at any time.
Everyone is aware of the unfavorable macro environment, and I am no exception. However, my altseason prediction wasn’t based on
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$ETH sell-side liquidity is low on centralized exchanges.
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@IT_Tech_PL
@ki_young_ju
Capital shifts from Bitcoin to other crypto assets have always been part of crypto history, just as stock markets rotate from mega growers to other sectors.
Predicting these moves based on narratives alone is tough, but in crypto, we have public access to market and on-chain
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Contrary to claims of DEX surpassing CEX, the current $ETH trading volume on CEX is 2.5 times larger.
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$ETH price level is the same as three years ago, but 3x more whale capital has entered the market. These addresses aren't contracts or CEXs.
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$ETH likely isn't at a cyclical top, and alt season hasn't even started. Whale profits are as low as during accumulation, too low to end this alt cycle now.
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ETH transaction fee is now around $0.7, -98% down from $36 in May 2021.
It means $ETH has enough hash power to digest transactions. But low fees compared to block rewards represents a lack of demand.
Makes me wonder what would be the next use cases for L1s. Tokenized assets?
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$ETH unrealized profits are at an all-time high, yet the low unrealized profit ratio suggests a substantial increase in fresh capital influx.
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$UNI reserves on centralized exchanges reached an all-time high.
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I know this is bullish-biased. I think it's bullish when many people are underwater.
We don't know the exact bottom for sure, but talking long-term bearish on ETH at this level also doesn't make sense for me unless you think ETH is going to zero.
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BRC20's narrative makes sense, but building an ETH-like ecosystem on
#Bitcoin
is challenging due to limited investments.
Bitcoin OGs prefer just holding $BTC, with less interest in "crypto" projects.
Long-term crypto VCs are less engaged due to lucrative profits on other L1s.
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Top trader friend's quote:
"Even a pig can fly when a hurricane comes. Don't do anything until the hurricane comes. Just don't do it."
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Definition of Legit Crypto Projects:
1. Is there a community?
2. Is the community working on something that requires borderless and decentralized Internet collaboration?
3. Does their collaborative work create societal value?
Which projects meet these criteria?
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Bad news: Liquid Staking Tokens utilize 41% of $ETH staked in the ecosystem. Almost 2x leveraged.
Good news: LSTs did not contribute to the recent surge in ETH staking.
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When hacking issues occur,
@Tether_to
freezes hackers’ addresses and reimburses $USDT to clients for some cases. Not sure $USDC provide this service as well.
Other stablecoins like $TUSD, $BUSD, $USDP, $DAI, $FRAX, $GUSD don’t support blacklisting.
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Total frozen stablecoins due to illicit activities:
$USDT: $399M (0.57% of supply, 684 addresses)
$USDC: $3M (0.007% of supply, 15 addresses)
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#Ethereum
's average transaction fee in ETH reached a five-year low, with a median fee of $0.4 per tx.
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L1/L2 Active Addresses Comparison in 2022:
$BNB ecosystem has the largest user base in terms of active sender addresses.
*I'll post breakdowns later based on tx patterns to exclude bots.
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Which info helps the most to trade $DOGE?
Volume-based S&R Levels
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Elon's wallet addresses
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Elon's tweets
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Other (please comment)
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#Bitcoin
mini-bull done. Expect at least 3 months of sideways as institutional whales re-accumulate $BTC.
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$WBTC whales are accumulating $ETH.
Since September 2023, they have accumulated 67K ETH ($268M), reaching a total balance of 429K ETH ($1.7B).
Wrapped BTC whales are not retail investors, they're most likely crypto funds. Naturally, they're very bullish on Ethereum.
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Fun Fact: 5x leveraged long positions on
#Bitcoin
never got liquidated during this bull run.
This
#Bitcoin
bull cycle has experienced only small corrections so far, thanks to institutional capital flows.
Chart by
@AxelAdlerJr
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The first step to becoming a profitable trader is not to be greedy. Put yourself together and control your greed.
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Notable L1 project solving the right problem with the right solution. Strong, well-funded team aligned with the project's scale. Token not launched yet.
1/ Announcing $140M in total fundraising to build Story, the World’s IP Blockchain.
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Bitcoin has always experienced corrections before reaching new all-time highs, with a 10-15% drawdown in 2021 and a 32% drawdown in 2017.
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For Ethereum, it's hard to get MVRV and realized price since it's an account-based blockchain, not UTXO-based. It requires assuming virtual UTXOs.
OWAP(On-chain Weighted Average Price) could be an alternative to the realized price to see market cycles.
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$SOL / $ETH market cap ratio increased by 436% over the past year.
Can someone explain? Memecoins drove this demand?
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For 8 years, I've been telling my friends, "We're so early," but lately, I don't feel that's the case anymore.
#Bitcoin
has now become a mature young adult—a well-regulated asset widely recognized by institutions, but a bit boring.
I'm proud that Bitcoin has grown up so well.
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Been re-accumulating spot $BTC like institutional whales, awaiting a small correction to open a generational long position for my grandson.
#Bitcoin
mini-bull done. Expect at least 3 months of sideways as institutional whales re-accumulate $BTC.
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@IT_Tech_PL
@ki_young_ju
I agree that only a few projects will survive while many others won't see much growth. However, it's a good time for Bitcoin capital to rotate into other sectors. In the next bull run, some projects will likely offer a better risk-reward ratio than Bitcoin.
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What is the biggest systemic risk factor on ETH? I'd like to measure how the ecosystem is over-leveraged.
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#Bitcoin
correction likely depends on OG whales who went long at $16K; they might consider taking partial profits now.
Pro-tip: To spot old whales' giga long/short positions, focus on low-volume derivative exchanges.
1/ Huobi whale: longed at $16,819
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What should I post on
@kate_young_ju
?
Cute selfies of Kate (AI)
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Analysis on altcoins
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Ki's trading positions
225
Other (comment plz)
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Seeking undervalued altcoins or those accumulated by whales. Any recommendations? I'll do on-chain analyses for them.
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The market always gets more pumped and dumped than you think.
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I've created a dashboard to monitor these indicators.
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If the fiat system collapses,
#Bitcoin
's market cap could reach $142T by absorbing global fiat caps.
$BTC price would be $6,812,659, marking a 161x increase from current levels.
When would this narrative make sense?
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New era
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We'll see many well-regulated stablecoin-based applications rather than unregistered securities for the next few years.
It's a great time to build stablecoin-based apps if you're a builder.
We have Internet money, regulations coming soon, now we need apps.
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Stablecoin whales sold 115K $ETH over the past 7 days but still hold significant amounts.
These are wallets with over $1 million in $USDC and $USDT, excluding CEX and contract addresses.
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Bitcoin is not early, but Crypto is still early.
Honestly don’t know how much longer I’ll be bearing with crypto’s “we are still early” narrative. It’s been 15 years, the industry got so much financial and social capital during the bull run but it seems like it had spent most of it on parties, celebrity marketing and shitcoins
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Unpopular opinion: The suicide rate may have increased due to global exchanges offering excessive leverage, such as 125x. We need regulations.
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Limitation:
Normally, MVRV ratios for coins other than BTC have low hit rates because:
- People move $BTC to sell; that's why it has MVRV has a high hit rate.
- People move L1 tokens not only for selling them but also for using other services like Defi.
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Luckily, I've met many successful and failed entrepreneurs. All of them were truly intelligent people.
The only difference I found was that the successful entrepreneurs focused on hope, while the unsuccessful ones focused on despair.
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I expected a wide range of sideways for $BTC during 1Q of 2024 before a parabolic bull run, as is typical with whale trading patterns.
Significant capital inflows into
#Bitcoin
ETFs may bypass the re-accumulation phase, as these new ETF buyers just buy BTC regardless of price.
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My apologies. Langauge barrier here.
I didn't mean "entry price" as the price that the ETH was initially purchased at, but as the price when the ETH was staked into the ETH 2.0 contract.
And I think this data is meaningful because:👇
@TrustlessState
Yeah, but I think staking here is the same as long positions that expire when ETH 2.0 launches.
Stakers expected the price would go higher when ETH 2.0 comes.
It's meaningful as it shows the gap between ETH 2.0 futures price and the actual price. Like futures basis or CME gap.
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The initial prediction of a sideways market in Q1 seems invalidated. Even if it goes sideways, TradFis are likely to defend the $42K level.
#Bitcoin
mini-bull done. Expect at least 3 months of sideways as institutional whales re-accumulate $BTC.
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My conclusion after reading non-data-driven FUD bearish tweets on CT:
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You might want to see MVRV for certain TXs that seem like selling activities - exchange flows and DEX activities to get a better result.
Or just get MVRV for low-utility tokens. If you think there's nothing you can do with the token, check out MVRV data.
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Which AI tool is best for turning a photo of a 32-year-old Asian man into an 18-year-old cute girl?
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Disclaimer: I don't own their equities or tokens, and this is not a paid post.
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@TrustlessState
Yeah, but I think staking here is the same as long positions that expire when ETH 2.0 launches.
Stakers expected the price would go higher when ETH 2.0 comes.
It's meaningful as it shows the gap between ETH 2.0 futures price and the actual price. Like futures basis or CME gap.
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Between someone who confidently thinks, 'I will succeed, and this is how I'll achieve in 3 years,' and someone who only talks about enduring hardships supposing they'll fail, who do you think is more likely to succeed?
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Stablecoin represents censored Internet money, but not everyone on Earth understands the importance of censorship resistance.
Widespread adoption of
#Bitcoin
as P2P payments is likely to occur once people realize the government censors their financial activities.
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2) Leveraged ETH staking
stETH on Aave allows you to leverage your ETH staking to maximise staking returns.
1. Supply your stETH as collateral.
2. Borrow ETH against the stETH.
3. Restake borrowed ETH for more stETH.
Repeat this process as much as your risk profile allows.
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I'd like to fill up my feed with Defi stuff. It's hard to find good analysts.
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Definition of accumulation addresses:
1/ No outflows
2/ Amount of the last inflow >= 100 ETH
3/ Total inflow count >= 2
4/ Balance >= 100 ETH
5/ Have any transactions in the last 7 years
6/ Not CEX or contract address
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$ETH whales bought 335K ETH, valued at $1.35 billion, over the past week.
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Live Chart 👇
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@C362020
Difference between buy and sell quote volume. Quot volume refers to limit orders, not market orders. Green indicates that the 30-day difference is higher than the 365-day difference.
Some people don’t fully understand this indicator, so here's a brief explanation:
On exchanges, market orders create 'taker volume,' while limit orders create 'quote volume.' Whales and institutions, like market makers and brokerages, usually use limit orders for large trades to
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@vladenhawk
@ki_young_ju
Because Bitcoiners and Web3 people hate each other so much for some reason.
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