Jake Bradt
@jtbradt
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Environmental and energy economist. Current: Assistant Professor @UTexasMcCombs . Past: @Kennedy_School , @Harvard .
Austin, TX
Joined August 2017
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A (very early) job market update: I'm thrilled to be joining
@UTexasMcCombs
in 2024 as an assistant professor! This came far earlier than expected, but today seemed like a fitting day to share this news 🤘 (1/3)
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Very excited to share my paper, which is forthcoming at
@BPPjournal
: "Comparing the Effects of Behaviorally-Informed Interventions on Flood Insurance Demand: An Experimental Analysis of 'Boosts' and 'Nudges.'"
SSRN link:
Thread below! 1/13
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Excited that my paper is now available online
@BPPjournal
. Many thanks to the editors and staff there and to
@CassSunstein
for his guidance on this project!
Fascinating
#behavioural
experiment testing impact of
#nudge
using affect & availability heuristics against a numeracy
#boost
for flood insurance take-up.
@jtbradt
@Kennedy_School
new article in
#FirstView
>
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Very excited to see this work joint with Carolyn Kousky (
@WhartonRiskCtr
) and
@oejwing
(
@fathom_global
) in print at
@JEEM_tweets
.
A (hopefully) brief thread!
1/n
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Great interview! I’ve been surprised by the strong responses I get to studying the design of industrial policy.
But as
@rodrikdani
explains, “industrial policy is just like any other policy. Yes, it can be inefficient. It can be captured. But that’s not unique.”
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I’ve been lucky enough to see Sarah present this paper a couple of times. Her approach to endogenizing coming to market is ingenious and provides a neat way to account for dynamic demand without needing to rely on quite difficult existing methods. A lot to learn from this paper!
Sarah Armitage
JMP: "Technology Adoption and the Timing of Environmental Policy: Evidence from Efficient Lighting"
Website:
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Great to see an entire chapter in the Economic Report of the President on climate risk! It gives an excellent review of much of the relevant literature (and it’s cool to see our work cited!)
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I've been puzzled by how little work has been done on the "market-level zeros" problem since (recently) learning random coefficients logit. Really enjoying this paper so far!
New Working Paper:
@ChicagoBooth
's
@JDube6
,
@UChi_Economics
Prof. Ali Hortacsu & Joonhwi Joo propose a new estimator for the Random-Coefficients Logit demand system for purchase datasets with zero-valued market shares.
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I am so grateful to my advisors and many mentors and friends at
@Harvard
@Kennedy_School
. With plenty of work left before I graduate, there will certainly be time to thank the village of people who have supported me. (2/3)
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Fascinating new WP presenting the COVID-19 policy response as an optimal control problem. One interesting finding: the authors parameterize testing of the recovered population and find that, at best, no testing of the recovered population results in similar welfare losses as...
NEW: What is the optimal COVID-19 lockdown policy to control the health impact while minimizing output costs?
@DArgente05
, Francesco Lippi &
@UChi_Economics
' Fernando Alvarez develop a model to map the optimal policy course:
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After countless hours looking at Army Corps documents, I found the one I didn't know I've been looking for:
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Excited for my first ASSA meeting!
If you’re at
#ASSA2023
, join us on Sunday morning for our session on climate adaptation. I’ll be presenting work with Joe on the impacts of public flood control levees.
Session:
Paper:
Join us at
@ASSAMeeting
1015 Sunday for Adapting to Natural Hazards in a Changing Climate:
#LalaMa
#HannahDruckenmiller
@JoakimWeill
#JakeBradt
#ChrisTimmins
@Philipcheesy1
@krhwagner
#JuddBoomhower
, Hilton Riverside Chart B,
#climatechange
#adaptation
,
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I feel like being down this AM is a sign from the universe that either (a) I should be better about saving intermediate data files or (b) I should start the weekend early... Choosing to ignore (a) and heed (b). Happy Friday!
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You know that your data need cleaning when a podiatrist shows up in a dataset on gas stations
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Great to see the work of
@FirstStreetFdn
go live today. The Flood Factor site () should play an integral role in removing informational barriers homeowners face when assessing their risk. Excited to partner with the Foundation on research moving forward!
Across much of the United States, the flood risk is far greater than government estimates show, new calculations suggest. Millions of people are exposed to this hidden threat — one that will only grow as climate change worsens.
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While this
@nytimes
quiz is enlightening, it's important to realize that families who actually have to fill out this paperwork often do so facing enormous cognitive constraints as
@m_sendhil
and Eldar Shafir explain in their book "Scarcity"
Are you good at paperwork? Take this quiz to see whether you could make the kinds of mistakes that can cost poor families food or health insurance.
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Timely (for folks in the US) study out in Nature on the health costs of exposure to wildfire smoke. Interested in digging into how they model exposure, but these are some big estimates!
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Very sad news. I consider myself very fortunate to have been able to learn from Professor Weitzman — I certainly credit his course for inspiring me to pursue graduate study. My condolences to his family, friends, and colleagues.
It is painful for me to convey the sad news that my Harvard colleague, mentor, and friend, Marty Weitzman, died unexpectedly yesterday. Many tributes will be forthcoming, but as a memory for now, here is a related essay I wrote last year:
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I knew things are wild out west but an epic heatwave, rolling blackout warnings, and a tropical storm all in our first week in SoCal is quite the welcome!
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In a recent blog post, I discuss the potential role of behavioral interventions in closing the flood insurance gap in the U.S. Bottom line: behavioral policy has an important role to play on this issue.
Link:
Thanks to the
@WhartonRiskCtr
for sharing!
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In part one of a two-part
@WhartonRiskCtr
blog post, Carolyn Kousky and I dig into
@fema
's recent release of policy and claims data from the National Flood Insurance Program.
Link:
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It’s impossible to overstate how incredible this
@Nationals
team is. Win or lose, I will always be grateful for the joy this group has brought. Now, let’s bring this
#WorldSeries
home to DC!!
#STAYINTHEFIGHT
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You've probably heard of nudges, but have you heard of "boosts?" While nudges are defined as changes to a decision frame (Thaler and Sunstein), boosts are interventions characterized by their goal of expanding decision-maker's abilities (see Grune-Yanoff and Hertwig, 2016). 3/13
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In other non-Coronavirus news, I just downloaded airfare data. Does this make me an IO economist? ...probably not, but I'm at least one automobile dataset away, right?
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@BPPjournal
@CassSunstein
Full thread discussing the paper and its findings:
Very excited to share my paper, which is forthcoming at
@BPPjournal
: "Comparing the Effects of Behaviorally-Informed Interventions on Flood Insurance Demand: An Experimental Analysis of 'Boosts' and 'Nudges.'"
SSRN link:
Thread below! 1/13
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Very thoughtful thread from
@tridevichakma
on the announcement from Harvard/MIT. It's unacceptable that int'l students face this harassment. I've learned so much from my int'l classmates, but more importantly as Tridevi points out "lets not lose sight of their humanity."
Thoughts on Harvard, MIT suing over the ICE rule threatening to deport international students.
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@JesseJenkins
@RicOConnell8
Turns out that market structure does play a big role in this. I've found quite remarkable learning economies in installers' costs (), so the (lack of) action largely comes from installers' markups and in part substantial barriers to new entry
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@ChrisMClapp
@Econ_4_Everyone
@RDMetcalfe
@RobertStavins
@jimstockmetrics
Thanks for the great presentation! Really enjoyed the paper!
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STAYED. IN. THE. FIGHT.
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@melanierucinski
I just did battle with latex on this! "\usepackage[hidelinks]{hyperref}" worked for me
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Interesting reporting on the propensity to rebuild in disaster-prone areas and the role that FEMA and disaster relief funding plays in this:
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First problem set of the year means finally getting around to all those chores I talked about doing over the summer. Funny how I now feel motivated to work on those 🤔
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There’s a lot we can learn about carbon pricing in the wild from this great JMP — I enjoyed reading it!
As the COP26 summit heads into overtime, let me take this opportunity to tell you a bit more about my job market paper:
"𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝘂𝗻𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗮𝗹 𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗰 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗯𝗼𝗻 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗴"
JMP link:
#EconTwitter
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Hard to pay attention to non-Coronavirus news these days, but a reminder that the
#2020Census
is underway! If you're looking for a way to fill your social distancing time, why not visit and complete your questionnaire?
Time to check your 🐌 mail, folks! An official
#2020Census
mailer from the
@uscensusbureau
is supposed to arrive at most homes either today, March 13, 19 or 20.
Have you received this? 👇 (If not, you can still complete the census at or 1-844-330-2020)
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A beautiful paper! I appreciate something new about it every time I give it a read.
Congratulations to Kate Ho and Robin Lee, winners of the
#FrischMedal
for "Insurer Competition in Health Care Markets,” (Econometrica, 85.2 (2017): 379-417). Free for a limited time
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Wonderful paper that I’ve enjoyed following the past few years! Makes a really important methods contribution about capturing a wide set of amenity values and also helps understand past results of minimal benefits from water quality improvements. Congrats!
New paper alert!
Excited to see that our paper is out in
@JPubEcon
! In this paper with
@yusukekuwayama
and
@SheilaOlmstead3
, we provide “A more comprehensive estimate of the value of water quality”. Ungated version here: . 1/3
#EconTwitter
#AcademicTwitter
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Really interesting policy announcement this morning from
@PeteButtigieg
. A lot to unpack, but I'm particularly interested in their proposal for a National Catastrophic Extreme Weather insurance program. 1/n
We can’t stop natural disasters from striking, especially as we face the growing threat of climate catastrophe. But we can control how we prepare for and recover from them.
Today, I'm proud to announce my plan for a new approach to disaster preparedness.
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JUAN SOTO AND ANTHONY RENDON GO BACK-TO-BACK OFF CLAYTON KERSHAW TO TIE THE GAME YES REALLY
TOP 8 //
#Nats
3, Dodgers 3
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Pretty amazing that state UI systems can't handle a simple reprogramming of the replacement rate.
From the NYT story: “To have [states] have to reprogram their computers to recalculate how benefits are paid would be completely disastrous.”
Link:
See how the CARES Act boosted each state's unemployment insurance payments over the next 4 months.
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I compare two behaviorally-informed policies, boosts (treatment 1) and nudges (treatments 2a/b), in the context of demand for flood insurance. Findings suggest that nudges are more effective in this setting, particularly when targeting the affect/availability heuristics. 2/13
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“Holly was single this summer and able to devote all her energy toward herself”
brb adding
@NatlParkService
stan to my CV
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@oejwing
@KellyHereid
@fathom_global
Thanks
@oejwing
, but you surely give me too much credit!
Great to see
@fathom_global
share our work with its broader community.
I think our work suggests that RR2.0 can improve a lot on the status quo, but that remains to be seen...
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This
@nytimes
piece is perhaps the best reporting I’ve seen in 2 years of retreat on countless environmental regs. Required holiday reading!
Beyond the glare of Washington, President Trump's retreat on the environment is unfolding in consequential ways for the health and safety of Americans
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I am so grateful to Jim for his years of guidance to me as an undergrad. His commitment to environmental policy, interdisciplinary research, and mentoring the next generation of scholars was inspiring. He will surely be missed.
Remembering Jim McCarthy: A gentle man, a caring mentor, a probing scholar, an inspiring advocate for the earth. Just some of the many dimensions of this wonderful guy that I had the good fortune to experience & through which I will mourn celebrate him.
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I spent a lot of time working in
@JuliaLanguage
last year and was reminded why when I was finally able to return to it recently. My language of choice for most analysis when I have my say!
Announcement: We are starting a new activity in the Julia community: a "Julia Installathon" with the first one taking place this Saturday @ 12pm ET. (more details: …) Please share this with anyone who may be interested!
#JuliaLang
#OpenSource
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Now announcing, the
@steak_umm
Working Paper Series!
Seriously though, this account is becoming a valuable public resource through this crisis. I think this is what MBAs call a double bottom line?
if you're a scientific, medical, or economic researcher publishing for credible institutions with limited visibility related to our current crisis, please DM us and we'll see if there's any way we can boost your work
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@BMMillsy
@UTexasMcCombs
Thanks, Brian! Excited to join you -- I will be sure to reach out once I'm on campus!
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This all has impt. implications for how we think of upcoming changes to how FEMA sets rates under the NFIP. The reforms known as "Risk Rating 2.0" () will likely mitigate asymmetric use of information in NFIP by more closely aligning prices w/ risk.
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...population lockdowns of low- to medium-effectiveness. Makes a strong case for antibody testing (as others have: ).
Continue to be amazed by the great work being done by economists on COVID-19.
Link:
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Definitely a sub-tweet.
Wetlands are beautiful and effective at enhancing water quality and habitat for diverse species. Pictured: a high-altitude wetland called a fen in the Rocky Mountains of CO.
@USGS
Aerial photos help with mapping fens for conservation/restoration studies.
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I construct and implement two nudges (an informational and an affective nudge) and a statistical reasoning boost and then elicit willingness-to-pay (WTP) for flood insurance in a hypothetical scenario using a survey of N=331 recruited from an online labor pool. 5/13
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Carolyn and I will share additional findings in a future blog post, so stay tuned if interested! That said, we're barely scratching the surface; there's much to be learned from these data and I'm sure we'll be seeing some fascinating papers in the coming years.
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“Armed with little more than a legal pad and a No. 2 pencil, Dr. Weitzman delved into issues of biological diversity, unemployment, inflation and bioengineering, often mixing complex mathematical proofs with references to Greek mythology.” 2/n
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@parisastry
@UTexasMcCombs
Thanks, Pari! Very kind of you to say! I'll be in the Business, Government and Society Dept.
Looking forward to catching up during our session at the ASSAs this weekend!
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What's driving the large effect of the affective nudge? Well drawing on the regulatory focus theory literature, I examine the relationship between situational motivation (i.e., how much a specific context motivates a decision) and willingness-to-insure (WTI)/WTP 8/13
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I also like the Buttigieg team's emphasis on modernizing FEMA's flood insurance maps and improving risk communication. That said, I would have liked to see them take a stance on premium reform and other issues at the core of the NFIP reauthorization debate. 3/n
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Absolutely love this 👇
The world is watching, including the kids at the
@Nationals
Academy in the Dominican Republic.
This is awesome.
#WorldSeries
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Checking out
@heatmap_news
- lots of cool reporting already, including this great read that looks at climate adaptation from the unique perspective of the surf community (of which I am a new member!)
Definitely subscribing!
Look forward to following
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A touching tribute to the incredible life and career of Prof. Weitzman from
@harrisondsmith
and
@washingtonpost
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"The issue is not whether we will have disastrous effects, but when climate change will have disastrous effects." Farewell to economist Martin Weitzman, who raised the alarm on catastrophic climate change and questioned the "sureness" of economic models:
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To save you having to deal with the USACE digital library, it's my new wall calendar:
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You have to admire the commitment to a message of unity. A presidential first act.
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TFW you realize a weeks worth of confusion is likely the result of accidentally switching latitude and longitude in your code 🙄. Friendly reminder to PLOT 👏 YOUR 👏 DATA 👏
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@Philipcheesy1
@WhartonRiskCtr
@oejwing
@fathom_global
@JEEM_tweets
Thanks Philip! And thanks for your input on earlier drafts!
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Great reporting via
@nytimes
@LFFriedman
. What's frustrating about the Trump admin's effort to revise NEPA is the fact that it undermines a yearslong effort to streamline environmental review while maintaining the integrity of the process (e.g., ) ... 1/2
Wonk alert: I know that 2020 has already been hard, but this will have major impacts on our ability to prepare for a climate ravaged future. This is like wearing a blindfold while driving a bulldozer. via
@NYTimes
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Interesting use of publicly-available data to motivate and complement this great reporting. As we saw with Florence, the risk of significant contamination events at these types of containment sites is non-trivial.
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What are the takeaways?
1. As others have also clearly shown (e.g., Botzen et al., 2013; Kunreuther 2018), behavioral policies have an important role to play in the context of low-probability, high-consequence (LPHC) events like flooding. 2. While it is possible... 10/13
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Last but certainly not least, I'd like to thank
@CassSunstein
for his guidance on and support of this project! Any comments or questions on this thread or the paper itself are more than welcome. 13/13
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@BenjaminABerger
@melanierucinski
But we do write things like “The Deadweight Loss of Christmas”
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Many result look at nudges and boosts separately, but few studies directly compare the two directly. My paper does so in a policy setting of first-order importance: flood insurance. See Kousky (2018) for more on flood insurance in the US () 4/13
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The beauty of Weitzman’s prose always struck me. He always seemed to be able to convey his arguments so eloquently. Love to see this celebrated in this article. 3/3
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