Jean Philippe Tissot (Condorito) 🇺🇦
@jptissot1
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Founder Arauca Capital - (no investment advice)
Joined August 2017
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Last Seen Profiles
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Arauca Capital over the weekend released the H1-2024 letter! If you’re subscribed, you should have received it.
In this letter, I share some thoughts about investing in small caps and micro caps, and what animal combat can teach investors. I also discuss some portfolio moves,
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"Half the reason the consulting industry exists is because companies would rather pay hundreds of thousands of dollars for advice from someone in a nice suit than listen to a line worker who knows exactly what’s wrong with the company but has dirty fingernails."
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Question for investors with +5 years of experience: What factor/aspect/habit you originally thought correct/useful and today you think the exact opposite (you think is harmful)?
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1/ THREAD: Long ImmunoPrecise Antibodies (IPA- Nasdaq)
$IPA is my largest holding since mid-2020, I haven't sold a share
This thread is just the peak of the iceberg as IPA has made such progress that highlighting all on a thread isn't possible, apologize for lots of omissions
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"The Mathematics of compounding: The big losses are essentially 𝐀𝐋𝐋 that matter to your rate of compounding,not the small losses- and not even the big or small gains. The big losses literally destroy your geometric returns and equivalently your wealth."
Mark Spitznagel
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Threat 1/ 👇: One of the characteristics that differentiate good investors from bad investors is the ability to identify OPTIONALITY in companies and their discipline to either get it for free or pay very little.
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@HetanShah
@KimKardashian
@RoyalStatSoc
This is so sad to see the
@RoyalStatSoc
allowing a person without knowledge of statistics post and humiliate the RSS in such a way with this BS POST, I wish the RSS encourages its employees to read
@nntaleb
's fool by randomness before losing all reputation with such posts
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In 2007 a man played the violin at a Washington DC Metro station, in 45 minutes he made $32. Two days before that, a man had sold out playing the Violin at a theater in Boston, average ticket $100. The man was the same: Joshua Bell. We tend to see what we expect NOT what is there
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1/ Visit at Shelly HQ: $SLYG - I recently had an inspiring meeting at Shelly and had the pleasure of meeting the visionary Dimitar Dimitrov in person. We covered numerous topics, but I’m particularly eager to share insights about the module, among others. This module segment
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Everybody thinks being a great investors is only about finding great companies at good prices. Great investors are quick at selling when facts change. Selling on time when u realise u hold wrong investments has an enormous compounding effect. It is just less visible.
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What is your hardest task at investing?
Mine is: how to evaluate when management isn’t executing or how to estimate a problem with execution, basically how to identify what is a temporal problem with execution or a permanent one. The latter is a sell signal & occurs very rarely.
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@HetanShah
@KimKardashian
@RoyalStatSoc
@nntaleb
@hetanshah
seriously has no clue about stats, he is comparing terrorism with being killed with lawnmowers - You cannot compare the two - Never - It is ok to make mistakes but not from the "head" of the RSS seriously
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Investing beliefs I have adjusted in the last few years:
* From being a contrarian to => Being independent
* From collecting a lot of info to => Filter as much info as possible
* From absorbing incremental information in my investment style to => Learn from other investing styles
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I just published “Compounding the important things in life using a system”
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Shelly Group: $SLGY - We just released Arauca Capital latest letter and on it, we included the link to our full Shelly write-up, which you can find below. Disc: Numbers are as of Dec 2023, stock is a bit up but nothing has changed.
Please find below the link for the Selly
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I once thought the ability to change your mind at investing was a superpower, now I'm convinced it's an essential requirement for investors. Stay alert for anything that (signal / NOT noise) can alter the rationale on anything you think. Don't be afraid of changing your mind
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I have never understood why people post on twtr - ytd results often, at the end when the mkt goes down nobody does it 😂. In 2019 people even posted weekly or daily, and then in 2020 q1 all gone. The shorter the frequency the more meaningless the result, it is such a bad habit
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Munger's advice to own only 2 stocks or very few can't be taken literally for us all. It makes no sense for an investor with less than 20 years of experience to do that, how are you going to learn & where are you leaving room for your mistakes? The advice works for the real pros
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This is my 2020 annual letter. It should be my last annual letter of the partnership as I am currently finalizing the set-up of my fund.
Hope you enjoy it.
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Due credit to
@IntrinsicInv
who said it at MOI: "Great returns come from companies that move up the competitive advantage rating scale, from having no moats to narrow moats to wider moats" I add, too much focus is on the CURRENT moats of companies & too little on their progress
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Sharing my 2019 annual letter (with a 2020 update).
This letter is written to and for my partners (who are all family members), the ones who have trusted me for years to manage their wealth. Non-partners can skip all except Part III.
It is my journey.
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IMO the most important skill at investing that isn't talked about a lot is: the ability to think non-linearly
Few people get it, as famous investing books quote lessons from the past & linear thinkers extrapolate it to today without adding context. Add context to anything u learn
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A reminder: Nothing will attract more interest in a company than a rising price of the stock. If your investment thesis is sound at a very low valuation, don't expect anyone to like your idea for a while. Once the stock is +100% then you'll have 10x the # of questions/queries :)
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Thread: Why very smart people lose $ shorting some stocks? Take an example of companies like Tesla, assuming you knew nothing about it but the financials and the twitter account of its CEO. It probably would've made you run and short it? Right? But you lost money and time, why?
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1/ So lots of gaming news
@AltaFoxCapital
going into the big leagues with an activist campaign in $HAS, I will be watching closely (love Connor's work),& what I am going to talk about Games Workshop
#GAW
(LONG) new game WTTW3 launched with massive success, what does it mean ?👇
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Took one of the toughest (for me) decisions as an investor. Sold $TPL- due to extreme valuation & the size it reached in the folio. This wonderful asset has a volatile stock, with patience I hope to buy it back. Had been a shareholder for 7 years, not easy, going for a long walk.
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The most important lesson for me in 2020 is:
"DO NOT be obsessive in any view you hold"
Seeing possible outcomes in the future as possibilities instead of being "certain" or married with an idea opens your mind, which makes you learn more & will save you from investing debacles
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$NLAB No further comment needed! 👇- 👏👏👏Well done team
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Connor as always creating value not only for his partners but for the entire investing ecosystem, as minority $NLAB shareholders we are lucky to have him on our side. Fully agree with this initiative and let's make sure we file the form in
@AltaFoxCapital
website. Thank you!
A 1.1% premium and 40 SEK/share does not reflect that growth. This is why I have emails pouring in from from shareholders upset with the 40 SEK/share offer. I will share a portion of those over time.
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Something that the market has not discovered yet on $IPA is its extraordinary platform.
B Cell Select platform enables the interrogation of 10 million blood cells to generate native monoclonal antibodies from any species. ABcellera one can use 1
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This time from the mediterranean sea I continue my long journey into understanding families who were able to preserve wealth for generations. From everything I have read about the Rothschilds this two volume from Nial Fergusson is a piece of art.
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$XPEL Q1 2021 expected to be 60% yoy - XPEL expects to spend more $ in acquisitions this year than the entire accumulated $ spent to date. Good companies deliver, good management teams deliver!!
Window film will be very big!
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If you want to learn more about Maxcyte and the CEO, Doug, the below podcast is just out of the oven!!
#MXCT
$MXCT
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In December I spoke/ saw several investors who were "reducing risk" by selling stocks, while we all were frightened and nervous I have never understood that behavior, risk reduction should be coincident with the year’s highs and not the lows.
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🛎 Arauca Capital's latest letter for qualified investors was yesterday released 🛎
How to access it in case you are not on the distribution list, I want to make sure everyone is aware 👇
1️⃣ Click here:
2️⃣ Scroll down a bit, then you find the H2-2023
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@welyze
@PSDFinancier
@TuttleCap
@ShitFund
1- I have to answer with a threat as this is quite long. First disclosure, I was long
#BUR
and several of the concerns I am going to mention where known by me, I just slowly started to not accepting them and actions and responses from management started to worry me
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$IPA for all of you interested Dr Bath just had an outstanding presentation with lots of important updates. This is my biggest holding.
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A friend asked about some book recommendations to be a better investor. I gave him the below books, they have taken me to a journey where I’ve learnt as much as I could about our species & realized how flawed I am, helped developing some tricks to protect my capital from my self.
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I like it when what you have in mind is executed by management (as mentioned in the thread)
$IPA announced a bought deal of $10M US only in the US, 4 hours later upsized to $21.7. The tone of how the $ will be used is 🔥
23/ IPA did a prospectus where they can raise up to $150M, I would like IPA to do a PP in order to bring institutions on board and use that capital either for acquisitions for the CRO or clearly for Talem. With the Nasdaq listing, this makes total sense.
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$SLYG good companies execute! Guidance language changed, it says now the company expects EBIT “above” 26M EUR. 💪💪💪 . 20m eur revs in q1 aline, which is a weak quarter, the e company total revs in 2021 were 30m EUR. Where is Shelly going? Multi billionstan eventually. Disc
Shelly $SLYG Q1 FY '24 preliminary results:
▫️Revenue +45.5 %
▫️Shelly devices +46.4 %
▫️Guidance 2024:
- Revenues of EUR 105 million
- EBIT above EUR 26 million
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1) I've been quiet for several weeks, the reason is the current state of the market provides an immense amount of noise & when you are an investor in microcaps with big drawdowns it is so easy to get caught in the trap to doubt your process and what you own. I few thoughts:
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1/ Small thoughts on Portfolio Management:
My best performing stocks are TPL with a +135%,EVO at 95+% , MXCT +67 (added)
Worst is IPA with a -48% (trimmed substantially)
The self-rebalancing of risk on a portfolio is worth mentioning
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#BUR
$BUR Got some questions regarding why I changed my mind on BUR from being a shareholder to exit entirely my position following earnings. I lost the trust of management and this is not about being right or wrong but about having the reasoning right.
@welyze
@PSDFinancier
@TuttleCap
@ShitFund
1- I have to answer with a threat as this is quite long. First disclosure, I was long
#BUR
and several of the concerns I am going to mention where known by me, I just slowly started to not accepting them and actions and responses from management started to worry me
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$XPEL " OEM involvement in paint protection film grows awareness about the product category and expands the market opportunity.
XPEL’s paint protection film-related revenue with respect to Tesla vehicles is approximately 5% of its total year-to-date revenues.
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@BrentBeshore
@jasonzweigwsj
This is the only interview I have seen sensible during this time.
Highlights:
“We do not know how this will play out”
“There will be jobs we wont recover”
“This money printing will come bite us”
“Everyone “seems” to know what is going on”
This is a huge message in simple words
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1/ "Selling right" is one of the hardest skills in investing. Here’s what I have learned about it and why most of investors do not execute it 👇
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So many people making investment decisions only on “narratives” - you buy coz a write up “makes sense”, then will sell when another narrative makes sense and scares you. - If a narrative makes you buy, a narrative will make you sell too! - 👇
Social media makes this harder if
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Portfolios are full of impostors (wrong positions), our job is to eliminate them as early as possible. Identifying aspects that would break a thesis prior to the event is helpful.
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US partnerships started. $SLYG US partnering with “Smart Things”. This is what we want to see in the US, partnerships and on Monday Xetra listing. Good things!
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$GIGSEK to buy Kafe Rocks for 3.6x EBITDA, with some deferred payments, similar to Ask Gamblers (partially self financing). GIG announced the media segment will generate 125-135M EUR un 2024 🔥🔥🔥- Affiliation industry with large deals recently. Long
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1/ As $GIG - $GIGSEK is one of our core positions, we at Arauca are very curious about how AI can impact the affiliation industry and are particularly interested in how the main players are reacting to it👇
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1/ Investing is acting with limited information ahead of an uncertain world. Wealth is created not by predicting that uncertain world but by having a sense of what a company can become with limited information 👇
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People are addicted to forecasts/predictions/price targets, etc, ideally a constant stream of daily forecasts on anything that moves while ignoring completely the evaluation and accuracy of any previous forecast, and that is why they do not get they are mostly useless.
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$IPA!
No comments :)
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Tissot Ayram Partnership in 2020 had the best return so far 84,21%. I told my partners to expect drawdowns and be prepared for that. I want to thank a lot of Twitter folks out there who have helped me in this journey, some people here are 🔥. Now we move on and keep working!
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People keep asking Buffett and Munger for formulas on how to calculate intrinsic values. They think there is a secret sauce to their style, this shows that few people get what they do.
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#GAN
, Guess not as under the radar as it used to be, but these numbers just blew my most optimistic projections. GAN's value keep increasing with time and its results.
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Happy Holidays to all my Twitter friends!! We wish you an amazing 2020! Let’s keep learning together with more adventures!!
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A long morning thinking about Investment processes and what I learn with the
#BUR
$BUR case and with the Muddy Waters report. These are my thoughts, a long thread, I am just sharing my thoughts:
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Somebody asked me in which state is $IPA.V today? I answered with the below, not sure you guys agree?
Maybe I am too bias.
cc:
@PaulAndreola
@BigRig_Trader
@mrjones321
@Arregius
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1/ For my allotted social media time = Small thoughts on Micro-cap investing =>
Remember Most (not all) Micro-cap companies are companies who are not great at the present moment but if you hold them you should expect them to be in the "process" of becoming great.
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Started to write my annual letter, 2019 was a year that despite being very good in results I made more mistakes than any other year, some unacceptable (somehow they were concentrated in the last part of the year, but folio is clean now) I'll share all what I leant when I'm done
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Greetings from Arauca Capital! We wish you all a happy new year and hope that 2024 brings you abundant health, love, and opportunities to keep compounding your wealth. ✨
💪Arauca Capital had a strong year, despite holding large positions in short-term treasuries throughout the
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Latest development on $IPA ( Talem's COVID program), with regards to the Polytope therapy 👇- interesting
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If you are long $CLPT Clearpoint or are simply interested in the company, the below link is a must-read.
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END/ As mentioned this thread covers only a portion of what $IPA is, management is outstanding and I am truly excited for IPA's future. DYODD
Find below the latest deck:
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In investing do your homework, own your decision. You can copy ideas but never convictions. If you need to ask someone about what to do about your own positions you are toasted in this business. We investors are wrong many times with huge conviction, imagine without conviction!!
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Why I do not own only two stocks despite Charlie Munger’s advice?
Wrote the below post after a morning of some meditation and a nice twitter exchange of thoughts.
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$JDC group = Skin in the game is the best incentive. It forces you to make decisions that in the long run increase value! Buy backs make sense at a price not at any price and seeing JDC mgmt initiating a buyback now (after the correction) when the business has got better is great
When you have owner operators that understand value creation they dont issue Stock based comp at low prices, they do buyback:
JDC
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$SLYG - Absolutely “ground breaking” announcement. Remember the professional market is untapped! This is purely unrecognised earning potential becoming material! A multi billion company in the making!
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In 2020, I was also long Endor but sold quickly after a quick double. Kept in the watchlist and completely lost trust in management with the dividend decision back in 2021, ensuring I will never was going to own the stock again. Stocks are risky, micro-caps are even more and buy
Endor was the second microcap stock I bought in my life. It was back in 2021. My "thesis" was that I like their products and that SimRacing will continue to grow after COVID. Nice reminder that microcaps can go to 0€ - and that you really need to know your game.
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I am a long term investor, which means I need to remove the noise of the short term - If your conviction in your companies is high, do not torture your self listening to people/news who do not share your time horizon.
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Second-order effects starting to emerge. KAP the largest Uranium producer warning production can be halted (so far it is not) in some mines if the spread is not contained. Uranium has had years of underinvestment and is 20% of the fuel used to produce electricity in the US.
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The below is so true. I know several insanely smart investors (IQ)who sell early or never buy great companies as a result of their pessimism/cynicism & some have large losses due to staying for a long time with their shorts. I think being a bit optimistic in a flawed world helps.
(1) A lot of value investors suffer because they are too cheap (fixating on multiples) and too pessimistic / cynical ("no company can grow that much for more than a few years")
They feel safer owning a zero growth biz at 12x earnings than say buying one that can grow organically
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$IPA.V NASDAQ!
Form 40F for NASDAQ listing application!
When companies are run by an outstanding CEO good things happen! Happy to be enjoying this ride! and see the evolution of this company all along
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#MXCT
= Great presentation by management => Super excited with the development of VLX in 2021! and of course, on the progress of all commercial 12 Partners - Surely this list will keep increasing.
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1/ $XPEL some thoughts. Market overreacted IMHO. Tesla’s share of revenues have been overestimated by the mkt (including by me in the past) reality is smtg between 5 to 8%- that is your worst case. Tesla is starting in two service centers in California, with only two models 👇
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$ Very disappointed with
@Enlabs_AB
board, accepting an offer with only a 1.1% premium under such great momentum. It makes us lose trust in anything you do in the future
@niklasbraathen
and members of the board.
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#GAW
Earnings for the last 6 months +54% on a very challenging year. $GAW is trading roughly at a run rite of 20 times EBIT. A reminder GAW offers a hobby and hobbies are addictive! when the # of hobbyist grow = shareholders get positive surprises. Core holding for me!!
#GAW
I’m concerned that forecasts might need to be updated...again🤔
This performance in such an environment with so many headwinds & significant capacity increases being implemented is outstanding imho
Acquiring more land in Nottingham is interesting👍
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Re-posting: After some delay, I am happy to share my Full 2018 Annual Letter. The journey continues. 2018 was a year full of lesson and experiences. I finally explain what "long term" means and disclose my building blocks at Investing (The 3 Pillars).
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1/Reminder, Coinshares $CS.ST again ludicrously cheap! Not on the radar of most investors & most people that follow the name focus on the wrong things (eg XBT provider) or have not done the homework - CS is trading at 2.9~ earnings today-Disc Long
👇
@IntrinsicInv
$CS.ST trades at a YTD run-rate P/E ratio of under 4x. Think crypto-focused Wisdom Tree. Biggest reasons for bargain price: 1) trades on Nordic Nasdaq, just IPO'ed in March. 2) no natural shareholders for a ETP/ETF sponsor with US $500mm market cap
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Some notes after attending
#GAW
's AGM. First of all delighted to have met
@rhomboid1MF
and
@RanmoorRuffian
who already started a great thread shown below, I will only expand on it, for a full review read his awesome thread.
#GAW
AGM Wasn't sure of best format so I'll try a thread and see how it goes. First of all great to meet
@Arquitect3
and to renew acquaintance with
@rhomboid1MF
. We extended our visit with a visit to the shop and exhibition but still couldn't get Rhom hooked on the product 😂 1/
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@puppyeh1
@ShaneAParrish
Move countries/ ser up a light (very small) structure where I could take invesotrs besides my Family (which Is what I currently do) . Big stuff on a personal level and very early steps as I am not 20 anymore 😂 but decided.
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$IPA.V $IPA The collaboration announced today between Zymeworks and Immunoprecise is a huge validation by the industry of all that IPA has done. Despite an incredible amount of ITM warrants expiring next week, the stock is at all-time highs and NASDAQ coming!
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9/ My largest holding $IPA, it is a CRO growing with a drug discovery platform that the market assigns a negative value (at today's prices)/ this drug discovery company has one of the most comprehensive COVID programs, at zero free.
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The below comment from the latest call from Eastman Chemical is really positive to the Protective film market and potential of great news for my important holding: $XPEL. XPEL reports on the 12th of August, let's see.
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Good Investing is summarised as: just do whatever you can to have good businesses in the portfolio, never sell/trim good businesses if there is not an fact that changes the thesis. They make the bulk of the returns and surprise always positively. $xpel crazy results :)
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#GAN
$GAN.L , I was already in my think week time but the announcement of DraftKings coming public is an important catalyst to have a pause. Just to start I thought SBtech exposure to the US was far bigger, as per the deck is just 5% 👇
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$SLYG impecable execution!! Looking forward for the call!
Shelly $SLYG FY '23 results:
▫️Revenues +57.3%
▫️EBIT +83.5%
▫️Net profit +88.8%
▫️operating Cashflow of EUR 7.7 million (vs. 0.1m)
▫️Guidance 2024 will be announced on 15 April 2024 (likely upgrade from previous one)
▫️more info in the call tommorrow
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$SLYG -- OH,
@BobbyKKraft
this is a great interview! We are long Shelly (one of our biggest conviction holdings now) and cannot be more optimistic about the future, given execution and future verticals, growth, and new geographies. Great to see Wolfgang telling the story!
My guest on the show today is Wolfgang Kirsch, Co-CEO of Shelly Group (SLYG.F). Shelly Group is an asset-light European smart home device designer, manufacturer, and distributor that has developed a smart home platform under the Shelly brand. The company specializes in the
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1/Last month was the 2nd anniversary of our Yoga studio. We now have around 10 people helping us make it a better place. Nothing has taught me more about investing than this project. I learnt that everything looks “great” in excel but the reality of a business is another thing 👇
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Always watch what people DO instead of what they say. CEO of
#AIREA
sold ALL his shares 2 months ago to the company's employee benefit trust at an ALL-Time-High. Today the company announced a profit warning, shares - 35% - Evaluating Human behavior is key at investing.
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#GAW
$GAW.L As a reminder the PBT of the last financial year was less than GBP 90M, the last trading update just indicated that the PBT for the last 6 months is not less than GBP 90 M. As always quality companies are positively asymmetric, surprises tend to be positive.
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Our Holding
#GAN
at 60m Market cap is producing this 👇, the cheapest company I have held. Revenues grew at +150% and US listing in the horizon. Great execution Mr. Smurfit!
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We at Arauca Capital 100% agree with
@ToffCap
here. $GIGSEK is currently a wonderful opportunity with an imminent catalyst! We of course are long!
The more I look into Gaming Innovation Group $GIGSEK, the more I like the opportunity. The spin should be on track for end of Q2, with overall upside of >100%.
GiG Media is going incredibly strong, recently achieving record revenue, player intake and ebitda growth. Check out the
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1/ Thread. My whereabouts: I have been thinking about and taking decisions with my portfolio during long walks. In the end, I have been reducing positions for 3 weeks, I currently have the largest % in cash I have ever held (30%) and my untouchable Gold position (~7%). Reasons👇
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In 4 years
#GAW
has compounded annually earnings 51%!! that is despite some headwinds due to the lockdown in 2020
Royalties which are 91% margins have CAGR at 30%, This still does not include any TV and mobile is just starting with a Chinese game launched recently. Bright future
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What an insightful article:
"I passed on Berkshire Hathaway, which was trading at $97, because I thought it was too expensive. I’ll wait, I thought, until it hits $60. I’m still waiting..........."
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