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Jonathan Bottiger
@jonbottiger
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5th generation farmer. Helping feed the world thru hard work and proper allocation of capital
Joined January 2014
@GrainsGorilla 5 corn is the new 1.3 c/o? We could be trading 1.0 c/o and if the rate of change is higher carry out - we going down. Funds trade rate of change. It best to be a simpleton in today’s markets. When beats get small/ time to exit
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@DDFalpha @OGTCHedger @BradyD78 On the lines of credit and working capital. If the disaster relief payments (35:40 an acre) come in next two weeks or at end of March does that money matter? It’s a big number. Maybe govt will hold on to it until after acre report
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@OGTCHedger @DDFalpha I missed acres badly last year ! Humbling game. Corn was 4.30 in the fall with more cost for the 2025 crop. I could see it both ways, but corn is a lot more risk to grow
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@DDFalpha @MacroMicroMe Side note / cost of production being up y/y is somehow a sneaky bullish theme. Still curious how N prices play out too. Aka corn becomes nat gas again like in 2022.
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RT @DDFalpha: @jonbottiger @MacroMicroMe I believe the US needs corn acres & would only make sense if one believes stocks/use is to fall be…
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RT @DDFalpha: Managed Money Net Corn Positions v US Stocks/Use Ratio: I'm in the opinion, stocks to use relative to fund length is NOT +10%…
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RT @TgMacro: Famous trader at $GS: “I’m gonna do what I always do on Super Bowl Sunday…bet $2 dimes on the coin toss and sit back and enjoy…
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@SirRunRun88 @GrainsGorilla Next level. Check out the John Arnold posts today You want to be betting on the smartest and best risk managers. Not pikers on Twitter. This is for distraction : sentiment : and extremely good for contrarian trades. Who doesn’t have multiple accounts anyway …
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@GrainsGorilla @Agricomp @GrainStats @LorenDempster China is irrelevant. It’s how Trump is going to handle Brazil. You see how he handles MX and Canada- that was a chain play . Brazil is in a terrible place. Left and friends with China. We go after Brazil hard to hurt China ?
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For those that think fundamentals don’t matter, only price action. If if if you do have the unique information advantage - it can be golden. FACT. Never stop improving at the risk management craft
Can confirm this story. As head trader at Enron when it filed for bankruptcy, I received many calls from firms that were recruiting. I was busy trying to close out the trading book and wanted to take some time to decide my future so didn’t take any meetings. But Citadel was by far the most aggressive. Other companies set up a few interviews with Enron’s senior people. Citadel interviewed seemingly everyone in the trading operation, all functions at all levels. Citadel's team called me twice but I declined to meet. It was apparent to me that their intent was to reverse engineer the business and I wasn’t going to help them. They knew that people looking for a job, particularly if they didn’t have a fiduciary responsibility to a current employer, would be very free with info. Interview everyone and you get a 360 perspective of the industry, how the business makes money, its competitive edge, who the best employees are, etc. Citadel probably interviewed several hundred Enron employees. In the end, they maybe hired 5. Much more importantly, they built the framework for how to enter the energy business, which, as Ken notes below, has been an enormous success. I did eventually talk with Citadel. On their third call to me, they asked if I would talk with Ken directly. I was at the airport heading to Aspen for a quick industry event. I didn’t know Ken personally but had great respect for what he’d built and so told his rep he could call me when I got back to Houston the following week. She said great, but called back a few minutes later with a question: if Ken flew to Aspen to meet me in person the next day, would I? Out of respect, I said of course. The next day I had a great meeting with him and later that week he offered me a job as head gas trader. I wanted to fully run an operation and thought there was more upside if I could have my own fund so I declined. I ended up building my own firm starting with traders and hiring deep fundamentals expertise. Citadel started with the research (as is their DNA) and built up a trading operation around it. Both models worked fabulously well. I came away from the experience with an even deeper respect for both Ken and Citadel and remain friends with him to this day. I started with a niche, gas trading, built a niche fund and burnt out after 17 years. Ken started with a niche, convert arb, and built one of the most successful financial firms ever and has never tired. blurb below via @ByrneHobart
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RT @JohnArnoldFndtn: Can confirm this story. As head trader at Enron when it filed for bankruptcy, I received many calls from firms that we…
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@BenRand10 @JerodMcDaniel Who is selling and who is buying the $8c for .02. lol. Like 10k a side. One can lose 10k and one is short that option. Damn that takes some stones.
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@96season @JerodMcDaniel I bet the July 8c are up in value next week !! Every piker should buy 1k buck worth and see what happens. I will be an owner of record. LFG
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