Grains Gorilla
@GrainsGorilla
Followers
10,980
Following
505
Media
1,179
Statuses
7,919
Grain and Oilseeds trader specializing in spreads and futures.
Joined June 2012
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
#ใจซ่อนรักตอนจบ
• 1486032 Tweets
LINGORM TSOU FINAL EP
• 1459659 Tweets
jaehyun
• 509567 Tweets
jeonghan
• 281885 Tweets
#JAEMINBornToBeLoved
• 227695 Tweets
#사랑하는_재민이의_스물넷을_찰칵
• 221024 Tweets
HE'S BACK
• 139507 Tweets
The EU
• 97507 Tweets
ペルセウス座流星群
• 91717 Tweets
Abdullah
• 90956 Tweets
Leicester Square
• 90641 Tweets
TRUMP IS BACK
• 75715 Tweets
Truth Social
• 70948 Tweets
Julián Álvarez
• 65088 Tweets
BOTO PARA SA SB19
• 61095 Tweets
Rachael Lillis
• 56356 Tweets
オーロラ
• 51699 Tweets
Mourinho
• 50723 Tweets
Poduje
• 44267 Tweets
CRAZY ALBUM TRAILER
• 42807 Tweets
Mr. President
• 36235 Tweets
Misty
• 33993 Tweets
#DilrubaSerbestBırakılsın
• 29691 Tweets
AI-5
• 26333 Tweets
Wahi
• 22325 Tweets
Nelita
• 19843 Tweets
Atlético de Madrid
• 15601 Tweets
Kalulu
• 15270 Tweets
Nketiah
• 13679 Tweets
Delfim Netto
• 12873 Tweets
Haddad
• 11342 Tweets
All this China stockpiling rhetoric is being perceived as bullish. A country doesn’t tell its citizens to stockpile goods unless it’s about to cut itself off from the world. What does China have up its sleeve after spending a year hoarding grain and other goods. War?trade war?
14
27
154
Inflation adjusted grain prices today since Jan 2020. (23% inflation)
CH 4.12 today = 3.17 in 2020
SH 11.70 = 9.01
WH 5.75 = 4.43
Unless Ag prices aren’t affected by inflation we are basically trading $3 corn and $9 beans today.
13
22
111
Didn’t we have a drought this summer. USDA basically saying we almost had a record yield in corn
9
7
110
Last year on this date funds where short 50k corn with a projected C/O of 2.3. This year they are short 336k with a projected c/o of 2.3.
5
6
109
So Iowa is flooding and Illinois is hotter then the devil. Funds massively short and not worried heading into quarterly stocks
15
1
107
30 cents off the lows and trading above 10&20 DMA in corn. Funds have covered 75k shorts and farmer has puked 2/3 of his crop. China has a good margin and needs to buy corn. CIF firming and trading above DVE for March. China has been buying corn for 2 weeks and not a single word
8
10
95
I’m almost in disbelief seeing $15 beans and $7 corn at harvest when the US doesn’t even come close to competing for exports.
4
3
91
The CME really needs to take a hard look at night sessions in Ags. It’s becoming the biggest joke ever. The night session has one goal. To run people out of positions on light volume. They should rename it. The predatory session. Come morning open it’s a completely diff market
18
5
89
Hey Twitter. Let me let you in on a little secrete. 20/21 carryout is 2.3 with today’s exports which is 200-300 million understated. Crop is getting smaller. Yield is sub 179. Stop paying for these services. Free honest advice. Buy corn. Gulf storm damage will be Next story.
17
12
82
Shocked to still hear all the people out there who think China is still going to cancel corn purchases. We are shipping it now fast then ever with bean program out of way and there are zero cargos in the Argy corn lineup to China. China will continue to buy US corn
9
10
82
I’m going to say this to Ag Twitter. Cash doesn’t lie! US cash for corn and soybeans is on 🔥🔥. There is a total disconnect from cash to futures right now. When index/MM liquidation is over from “non” fundamental reasons there won’t be a single offer in this market.
6
12
80
Since when do 100 degree temps with no rain not cause issues to corn and beans? 2024 is one hell of a year. Every piece of news or weather has a a bear twist to it.
11
2
81
Rise and shine. I wonder if anyone at the CME understands that they are losing more and more commercial hedging business each day we lock limit in the front without expanding limits. These contracts are no longer tools for hedging risk. Broken!
12
6
76
Flooding doesn’t hurt crop ratings. Another first for 2024.
9
2
75
Does anyone on twitter even trade? A bunch of bandwagon retweeters who have no balls. Getting bearish sub 420 CZ is worse then being bullish at 470. What a buying opportunity this is before aug 12. Thank you algos and Twitter folks for walking this market down.
14
5
73
Drop yield a couple and lose a few acres in corn and the c/o is 1.8-1.7 quickly and funds are short 400k expecting a 2.3 c/o. Would be a 500 million miss by funds.
9
3
74
CONAB report just ignored by market. All reports out of South America are today for the same reason. They dont fit the funds position so just ignore them. If we got a bearish Conab we’d be testing yearly lows. Kinda scary. Funds control the market as they wish
9
5
72
To every soybean farmer. You pretty much own the entire bean crop according to the COT. With China back in the market and funds short. Don’t sell! Let them pay you for the past 2 years. Beans in the teens! “Fuck you pay me!” (Goodfellas)
7
6
71
First close for corn over the 50 DMA since October. Shorts will have a nice long weekend to think about that. Happy Easter to all.
2
1
71
Market is fully pricing in zero demand (wrong), record yields (wrong), normal exports for Russia/Ukraine (wrong), and funds going net short Ags. Headline algos/retail investor are controlling price discovery and we all know the media never lies.
5
11
69
If you were to read every weekend summary and scroll through Twitter. You’d be shocked Corn c/o is 2 billion plus and beans 600. I don’t think I’ve seen people so bullish for small picture reasons in my life. End of the day c/o are big and demand sucks. “What if” market
13
4
71
I’m not a farm advisor but If I were I’d be calling every client today to tell them to sell their old crop beans/corn and get some new crop sales on here as well. We have 485 CZ and $1210 SX when exported are awful for new crop and will have to compete with BRZ and ARG
8
5
68
Well I learned something new. 100 degree temps are bearish.
3
2
67
Top 5 producing soybean states vs ratings Last year:
IL -9%
IA -17%
MN- 23%
IN +10%
OH +19%
USDA may have printed its high on bean yield for this crop
6
13
65
Does DEMAND matter to anyone trading Ags? Or are we just going to continue to sell off and let China buy our entire bean, corn and wheat crops at a discount?
15
8
65
Tonight’s market reminds me of getting dressed for a hot date and having her call you 20 mins before and canceling.
5
2
66
The CME has created a market that is dominated by algos/momentum funds. The same group are the market makers. So you have a fund short who has the ability to pull bids and offer market lower. You add in low volume nights where you can just push lower with buyers sleeping
11
7
64
MM has become such a large % of open interest now that nothing else matters. They control the market and can move it wherever they want. I like to call this a criminal/rigged market. I hope the CFTC takes notice. We know the CME doesn’t care.
8
5
65
I’d love to see every fan protest professional sports! F-you for making sports political. Sports is the one venue that brings everyone in America together.
4
1
62
92.5 and 88 are clearly what we are getting tomorrow unless these funds are just reckless and have no risk management. 50 cents in Corn and 75 in Beans the past 2 weeks. Short cover rally? Take some profit? Nope. Sell more.
10
4
62
So beans break all last week on good weather and ignore strong demand. Here we are again down 28 on good weather. Alright so yield is 51-52. We are selling over a million beans to China and a million beans to EU a week. But let’s keep trading a yield that’s maxed out.
8
1
61
Greatest corn market in years and I’m about to sideline myself because you can’t participate in a market that has no real buyers or sellers. Corn has become another crypto market where price discovery is purely stealing by algos. Make a lot of noise to get people involved/caught
4
9
58
Well
@CMEGroup
has done it again. The greatest market we have had in years with massive global demand and liquidity has never been worse. There is no way to make a good risk management trade with markets that have no volume. Close the night session and open the floor!
5
3
58
All those $4 corn and $8 bean guys are now talking $8 corn and $16 beans. Make sure to keep those newsletters rhetoric on par with order flow.
4
1
57
I hope everyone has taken notice finally at how bad the information/data is that’s being put out by these analysts!
- dead wrong on May USDA crop report
- off by 100k on COT report in corn/beans
- off by 17mbu on NOPA
*it’s all propaganda and made up! Fake news
6
2
57
70 yesterday in the Midwest. Early planting, crops made, early harvest, and so on. Oh wait. It’s snowing now and the largest loader in Parangua is on fire. Good luck being short $4 corn and $11.30 beans. GAP & GO!
4
3
57
What it took to get to a 2 billion corn carryout in July:
-increase in acres
- record yield
- no China demand
- undersold farmer
- perfect weather
What can change moving forward?
- China buys USA corn
- harvest acres lower
-yield not trend
-feed/use increase
-????
7
3
57
Make sure everyone comes up with a reason for why we broke today. Try to put a fundamental spin on it as well. Or stop wasting your time and realize today was nothing more then $$$ flowing into equities and out of inflation plays like commodities.
5
4
53
I’d like to start a petition to close the Agriculture night session. Liquidity is gone, options don’t trade, and hedgers aren’t involved. So who is benefiting from the extra 12 hours we are open besides
@CMEGroup
and algos?
#closethenightsession
10
4
55
Since Twitter is a bunch of all star traders. Let’s all just come out of the closet today and admit no “human” is trading these markets the past 2 weeks. Liquidity is awful, risk management impossible, and no ones risking or trying to make their year on Jan 5th.
10
1
55
Where did Arg all of sudden get all this supply on the front end of curve? The announcements made last night are bearish new crop. Market trading like Arg has a surplus of old crop.
6
4
54
Lower bean calls from rains in Argy forecast. I’ve seen it all now. Crops dead. Rain won’t solve a thing now. Too little to late. 23-25 crop. This is a comical call by many.
6
1
53
Everyone looking for a reason to BTFD! Keep sitting on those hands. This was Day 1 of liquidation. Let it run its course. Take a long weekend and start drinking. You probably need one after today.
8
1
53
Everyone keeps asking why Beans are holding in so well compared to corn and wheat. Simple. The boys are back in town!
3
5
53
The market keeps trading weather and taking weather premium out each new model. My question is what weather premium was in the market? BRZ crop lost 15-20mmt and we broke the entire time. Funds are short 20-30k beans now. So I’d have to say market is trading like crops made.
9
5
54
Algeria cancels wheat tender. Prices to high. Welcome demand destruction!
9
9
53
In the past 15 years. Funds have been short corn 4 times on this weeks COT and each time they have added to shorts the following 3-4 weeks.
5
1
54
30 mins in. July options off the board. Every ounce of weather premium sucked out of this market last week and funds on the sidelines. Volume sucks. CME sucks. Big number Wed with even bigger China demand for corn/beans at these levels. Demand demand demand (Biden Whisper voice)
0
1
53
For those EU guys who think KS and OK are getting timely rains for HRW crop. The rains are Actually increasing the abandonment and farmers switching to sorghum
12
6
53
AgResource just said “corn adds weather premium due to hot/dry weather”….. now I’ve heard it all. Corn is being harvested in IA and IL yet it’s still adding weather premium. Who is writing this nonsense these days.
15
3
53
It’s 2024 and the advancement in technology and clearing is much better then it’s ever been. Why are we still doing COT reports Tuesday-Tuesday??? There ends up being a 2 week lag. To say bean MM sold 200 on a week we rallied 80 cents is just pure stupidity.
9
4
52
Why isn’t anyone talking about BRZ corn crop anymore? Crop is most likely 83-85. 10mmt below the USDA and any lost export business for BRZ do you short crop transitions into more old crop business for US corn.
5
8
52
Since every news letter puts out opening calls Sunday mornings on god knows what. I’m going to start doing the same. I model my calls off the weekly export estimates.
Opening Calls:
Corn +8 to -8
Beans +15 to -15
Wheat +6 to -6
5
0
50
Wheat selling off with China buying SRW and a near record short MM position is something you don’t see everyday. SRW is the cheapest wheat in the world and a buyer(China) who has the ability buy a lot of wheat from loss of production in Australia is buying
4
2
51
Great day to be a farmer. Sell some new crop and enjoy your liquid lunch
2
0
51
Can’t wait to watch twitter flip to super bullish in the next 2 weeks bc of price action.
2
1
50
Since BRZ brokers love to talk about US exports. I’ll talk about BRZ
Soybean traders out of BRZ report 15-20 cargos canceled
4
7
49
When you have nothing to say for why markets are moving. Just say “China opening/relaxing on Covid restrictions”
7
3
49
Market recap…. Funds are getting long on the most robust balance sheets we have seen in years. Ags acting like the stock market. Nothing matters. We just go higher. Money flow algos are bigger then the market.
6
4
50
Can we talk about corn Open Interest. Friday we were limit up. Spreads exploded and option vol caught a bid. Net open interest for CN was +811. Total OI net change was +3105. WTF is going on at the CME with Ag markets. What is causing these moves. Not spec money or new positions!
11
5
46
Corn Rant part 2.
Funds continue to sell corn thinking the farmer holds to much old crop inventory. Well he’s sold everything he’s needed for spring planting and has about 6 months now to decide when to sell. It’s a long growing season and farmer has lots of storage
10
2
49
Are funds cornering the Ag markets in 2024? Has the ease of entry into trading Ags and the fund positions prevented price discovery from happening? Total open interst in corn is 1.5 million. Beans is 840k and wheat 400k. Doesn’t take much ammo to hold markets down
7
7
49
I wonder if the CFTC is starting to realize that algorithmic trading doesn’t provide liquidity, it steals liquidity.
3
15
47
Why is no one talking about corn demand destruction at these Levels. Everyone focusing on Supply and yield while the Use Side do the balance sheet is going lower. Ethanol and exports.
13
3
46
One Quick Look at COT and All I know is bean rally coming next week along with oilshare sell off. Keep things simple. It’s all a $$$ flow game now. Add in ARG harvest delays do to weather and the short covering will be ignited.
5
2
47
I’d like to know who is buying $14 SX after BRZ produced the crop is did this year vs last, US harvest just around the corner (farmer 20% sold), interest rates at 7.5% (cost to Carry extremely high), and last year was the only year in past 5 years we traded above $13 on this day
8
0
48
This market looks for any reason to sell. Weather hottest it’s been all year. Forget it. Macros say sell. Demand? Forget it. Brazil has beans to sell. Pipeline carry out? Forget it we have a 52 yield.
7
1
46
Corn = BTC. Beans = Doge
This is when a seasoned veteran grain trader hits the sidelines and watches. Every bearish input ignored and every dip bought. New money is buying 10 year highs. Not the best idea.
6
10
45
Why is no one even mentioning Argentina Harvest delays and the biblical rains they are getting. ARG is the largest exporter of meal in the world.
8
2
46
Dec Corn and Nov Bean prices are the highest in the past 6 years. Farmers have been calling around all winter looking for my land to lease to farm. High prices encourage more acres. My guess for acres is 97 corn and 90 beans. Both levels which we saw in 2013.
9
5
46
I’d love to see someone explain today. Corn and beans barely closed up on the week in new crop.
12
1
46
Free Advice Sunday’s! Looking for Corn and Beans to continue their bull runs. CZ 370 target SX 980 target. Look for markets to score its highs by Monday/Tuesday of this week then see some profit taking. Wheat is the dog. Sell rally’s.
3
8
45
What’s new on Twitter today. Just every person who was bearish on lows last week is now bullish on highs today. This platform has become complete shit for anyone looking for information. FOMO buying!
8
0
45
Good morning to the farmer who’s looking at his crop and seeing CZ at 4.16. Carry out is 2.1 you’re lacking sales but don’t worry. It’s July 1st. Sit back enjoy the holiday week and let the fund sell it more. Its proven MM doesn’t do well holidng a position 25-30% of Open Interst
3
2
45
For the first time in months Argy Corn is cheaper then US. The US is no longer the cheapest corn around.
4
6
44
Can every newsletters and market analyst please stop writing anything about this market. 95% of you are used care salesmen’s. Have no idea. How could conditions have improved when 80% of the corn belt got rain late Saturday. Stop influencing the markets with bad comments
7
1
44
The USDA just put carry out at 230 for beans with a 51.5 yield and 1.470 with a 177 yield for corn. It better rain for the next 2 weeks to hit these yields.
2
4
44
For all the Twitter bulls out there talking BRZ bean crop towards 150 bc of weather. Weather markets don’t take premium out of the market every Friday. They add it. 3rd Friday in a row we break hard.
9
3
44
1240 July beans is a joke. This asian company called COFCO is long the board and DCE meal. It was a hedge and now a spec trade. They are spreading rumors and bought 1 cargo of PNW beans to juice market and help long. Did everyone forget how they did the same thing in wheat?
9
2
44
No one talking about Buenos Aires grain exchange lowering 22/23 corn and bean harvest numbers. Beans 29 down from 33.5 and corn 37.5 down from 41.
3
5
43
With US bean carryout at pipeline and everyone “hoping” BRZ can produce another bumper crop to keep world bean balance sheet from being tight. One has to wonder why the 100 degree temps in BRZ and the inability to plant from soil dryness isn’t being priced in.
11
4
44
I have never seen a Grain Market so short sided in my life. All this market does is sell sell sell. It looks for reasons to sell. Today macro, but ignores every bullish input. Markets with wide Carries attract sellers. But we have wide Carries from interest rates not stocks
6
4
44
20 lot offered in corn. I join offer with 100 and make total offered 120. Algo stacks 300 on top of me to make new offer 420. 200 trade and I get 20 done. That’s stealing liquidity
@CMEGroup
5
1
44
It’s June 1st and everyone is getting way to excited about our first weather model to add heat. Impossible to make yield adjustments at this time. Weather has been ideal. Twitter has nothing to talk to about. Keep posting those colorful weather maps.
15
2
44
The speculation on China buying based on Trump leading the polls is absolutely the stupidest thing I’ve ever heard.
SOND export window won’t be affected.
World demand for soybeans is not going down if Trump becomes president.
It’s also 6 months away!
11
1
42
So we added Ukraine/Russian war/grain deal premium to the markets on Sunday. Discounted it all day yesterday and now adding back some of that premium again overnight on another air strike in Odessa. Odd way for market to trade when escalation never declined.
3
2
43
Importing corn from BRZ talk is going around. Not sure why we need more corn with the supply we have that has no demand
8
0
42
Corn has 1 million more acres then avg guess and beans have 600k less. Why was corn almost limit down and beans barely up?
5
1
43
It’s that time of year again. Let’s trade weekly crop conditions that have zero correlation every year to final yield. Forgot who did this study last harvest. Please share again. I remember there being literally no correlation to USDA final yield.
@kannbwx
???
12
0
43
Everyone talking about wheat being up 6 days in a row and now working on 7. It’s been to orderly. Have yet to hit stops and find panic short covering. MM short was 45% of open interest in latest COT. The Market needs a blow off top before getting bearish.
7
6
43
Quick look at Ag Twitter this AM. Those who were bullish on the highs are now bearish on the lows in beans and meal. You can’t make this stuff up. 1540 was a bad place to be long. 1480 an even worse place to be short.
4
3
41
Domestic corn cash in the WCB is on fire!! April/June inversions seen around 25 cents or more. Ethanol margins are good. May DVE just shy of trading at delivery. Combine this with short roll and KN should continue to narrow
5
4
42
No ones talking about the 2% move in the Real today that’s bullish Ags. Only mention it when it’s a 0.5% move and bearish for Ags
3
3
42
You can kiss trend yield goodbye with those ratings. IL ☹️☹️☹️
11
3
42
Big day in Corn, Beans and wheat. We traded above the previous days high! It’s been awhile
6
3
41
I’d like to know how every major news source for the Ag market puts out these articles based on False rumors?? Where is the fact checking!
-Ukraine did not sell 12 cargos of corn to China
-china did not washout USG bean cargos
-rains are not helping yields this late
8
0
42
Free advice. Take the Ag Outlook numbers the USDA put out this morning and wipe your ass with them. That’s about all they are good for!
2
1
42
Opening calls. Doesn’t matter. MM is not buying BRZ crop loss. Time to head on vacation and shut her down for the year. Jan 1 MM may be back in for reallocation and world balance sheet tightening based off demand not supply.
3
1
41
Beans look cheap here with $1.70 crush margins in F. ethanol margins are anywhere from .90 to 1.30. Also saying corn looks cheap here at 5.50 which is why it won’t break. Would not want to be short corn or beans here with these margins.
4
3
40