🌽A different view of money managers' massive net long position in CBOT #corn futures & options. You can see the steep build-up in gross long positions, which at 447,897 contracts as of Feb. 4, is RECORD large in data back to 2006.

Money managers through Feb. 4 slashed their net short in CBOT #wheat f&o to 90,442 contracts, also all on short covering. That is nearly identical to their 2017 & 2018 net shorts for the same date. CBOT wheat was up nearly 6% in the week ended Feb. 4.

🇧🇷Second #corn planting in Mato Grosso, Brazil is 23% complete, up from 6% a week earlier. That is below the 5yr average of 33%, but planting advanced at an above-average pace over the last week.

All #wheat stocks in Canada on Dec. 31 were up 1% on the year at 24.5 million tonnes due to higher production. That is very consistent with average levels in recent years, minus the 2021 outlier.

Note that analysts on average think USDA will come in sub 170 mmt for Brazil soy. But their own avg estimate is 171 mmt, ranging 170-174. Basically, the trade thinks USDA may be more conservative this month. Conab is out Thu Feb 13. Safras & Mercado on Friday pegged 174.9 mmt:

🇺🇸USDA forecast 2025 U.S. net farm income at $180 billion, a 3yr high and up 26% on the year, inflation-adjusted. But when subtracting direct govt payments, NFI is seen at $138B, up 3.6% on the year. The majority of those govt payments stem from the 2025 American Relief Act.

🇲🇽Mexico has formally dropped restrictions on GMO #corn imports. Previous plans to ban such grain could have significantly reduced U.S. corn exports if enacted.

Moisture conditions improved similarly for Argentina's #corn, though conditions also slipped this week to 25% good/26% poor from 28%/22% in the prior week. That is similar to this same point in 2022.

🇺🇸U.S. corn export sales last week were at the high end of expectations with all the usual suspects on the destination list (Mexico, Japan, etc). Soybean sales were near the low end of expectations with mild Chinese purchases. Soymeal sales were a marketing year high.

🇨🇳China has reportedly delayed or redirected imports of up to 600,000 tonnes of #wheat, mostly from Australia, as domestic supplies are ample.

🇺🇸U.S. agricultural & related exports by value in 2024 ticked up slightly from 2023 but were down 10% from 2022's record. Values were mostly up among the top products, listed below. However, #soybeans, #soymeal & #wheat brought in less $$ vs 2023 despite higher volumes for all 3.

🇺🇸Among major U.S. bulk commodity exports in 2024, cotton was the only loser when compared with 2023 by volume. Related, the 2023/24 U.S. cotton harvest was the smallest in 37 years. 2024 vs 2023 exports: #Corn +37% #Soybeans +8% #Wheat +22% #Sorghum +23% #Rice +39% #Cotton -10%

Oct-Dec exports of U.S. #soyoil were near 196,000 tonnes, which aside from the last two years is a 13-year low, but it is significantly closer to "normal" levels versus the past two years.

🇺🇸U.S. corn-based #ethanol exports hit 2.55B liters (674M gallons) between Sep-Dec 2024, some 23% above the period's prior record set in 2011. These were the top Sep-Dec destinations: Canada 35%, United Kingdom 11%, Netherlands 11%, India 10%, Colombia 7%.

Sep-Dec exports of U.S. #soybeans totaled 30.2 mmt (1.11 bbu), up 25% on the year and up 2% from the 5yr avg. That covers 61% of USDA's 2024/25 export forecast, above 3yr- and 10yr-avgs of 54%. It's a good start but do things drop off? Esp with China? To be seen...