Working on how to overcome pernicious polarization; Political scientist, Latin Americanist; Georgia State University; Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
In this Jan 2021 article,
@murat_somer_eng
and I discuss the dangers but also strategies to overcome pernicious polarization in the US and around the world.
The Venezuelan opposition worked the last 24 hours to collect 73% of the tally sheets, and those added up to 67% for Edmundo Gonzalez vs 27% for Nicolas Maduro. They are building a website to show these sheets. Now the CNE must show theirs.
MCM anuncia que el comando opositor tiene 73,25% de las actas. Con los resultados registrados en esas actas (verificadas y la amplia mayoría digitalizadas) el resultado a favor de Edmundo Gonzalez es irreversible. La diferencia entre EG y NM es superior a 3.5 millones de votos
Venezuelans have a difficult choice to make this morning - go to peaceful assemblies en masse to demonstrate their rejection of the Maduro regime in the midst of terrible persecution and repression, or stay home in safety but allowing the regime to consolidate power from fear. 1/
Venezuelan pres. Maduro’s declaration of victory with no published detailed vote results is a brazen act, but not so surprising. With no prior negotiated guarantees of safety from prosecution, Maduro opted to simply ignore the results. 1/4
As Venezuela wakes up on May 1, Maduro still in power but seriously weakened: open splits in security/intel support; Guaidó & Lopez not arrested. Now is time for serious negotiations toward transition govt to prepare elections.
We now have two totalitarian govts in Latin America who have denied elections in last 3 years: Nicaragua where Ortega jailed and exiled his challengers, and Venezuela where Maduro's handpicked Supreme Court just denied the will of 2/3 of the people who rejected his candidacy. 🧵
Clearly the CNE does not have the actas to back up their posted results. Possibly the govt is trying to manufacture false actas to match those results and convince a few naive people, but the voting machines security mechanisms are so good this maneuver will be detected. 3/
Important note on Venezuela Supreme Court "review" of vote materials: Not only was the main opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez not invited to send his observer, but neither were two other small parties who ran candidates and demanded transparency.
Vale aclarar
@lubrio
que los auditores de los partidos MUD, UNT y MPV no fueron convocados por el CNE/TSJ a esa supuesta revisión de las actas vs las bitácoras de la sala de totalización
Things moving quickly in Venezuela: Supreme Court announces "expert review" of voting materials provided by CNE, but no one knows what's happened to these materials the last 18 days, or if perhaps the CNE created brand new ones to match the "results" they announced July 28.
Sin la auditoria de telecomunicaciones y la verificación fase II el TSJ no puede garantizar que el material que le entregó el CNE se corresponda con el material original (actas) y bases del datos del
#28Jul
Venezuela’s 2024 presidential election did not meet international standards of electoral integrity and cannot be considered democratic.
Statement:
Declaración:
Brazil, Col, Mex reportedly are offering a week to mediate verification of results and transition. Meanwhile, Maduro and co. are unleashing mass terror. Time has passed to worry about verifying the results. CNE and TSJ have already confirmed Maduro. 2/
Rapid escalation of conflict with Maduro coordinated by U.S. and Guaido has gained intl recognition of interim presidency, but was there no prior internal negotiation to ensure some path forward? Betting on external pressure to motivate military to abandon Maduro is risky indeed
All democratic govts should refuse recognition without detailed vote results and audit. Lula is key, but also a united front. (Xiomara Castro – what were you thinking?) The streets are quiet on Monday morning, …2/4
Es muy importante estar claro sobre la manera de manipulacion, como explica
@puzkas
aqui. No son las maquinas de votacion que eran manipulado en 2017; era una totalizacion inflado en un caso, y cambios manuales de algunas resultados de centros, en el otro caso.
Smartmatic lo que denunció es que Lucena al leer los resultados de participación en la ANC abultó/manipuló los resultados de totalización. En el caso de Bolívar el fraude fue cometido por el CNE regional que modificó manualmente los resultados
@ezpasquier
but if voters and oppo leaders decide to protest, massive numbers may convince rank and file security (also suffering) not to repress. There could yet be a tipping point of change. Mass protests and intl pressure have produced change. Change is often unpredictable. 3/4
Just out in "Just Accepted" in
@The_JOP
, my article with
@simonovitsgabor
@littvay
. Democratic Hypocrisy and Out-group Threat: Explaining Citizen Support for Democratic Erosion | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No ja
P.S. I never understood the apparent decision by opposition and U.S. to wait to carry out negotiations on guarantees for PSUV and for officials only after the election (unless they were happening secretly). 4/4
I am thrilled to announce that I have been named a 2024 Andrew Carnegie Fellow! This fellowship will support my project with Michael Evans, “Mitigating Pernicious Polarization through Innovative Civic Educational Interventions
#CarnegieFellows
Most of the hemisphere rejects the Supreme Court announcement in Venezuela. Mediators Brazil and Colombia have yet to speak. Reluctant mediator Mexico rejected the Court. Still, there are 4 months before the next term begins - things could yet change.
After harshly repressing protests, media and dissidents, Ortega has now closed over 5000 civil and religious organizations and seized their assets. Maduro has since July 29 detained over 2000 people, more than Chile's Pinochet according to Provea.
Nicolás Maduro rompe cifras históricas de represión en
#Venezuela
, superando a dictaduras como la de Pinochet en Chile.
Registramos un aumento acelerado de graves violaciones a los derechos humanos, cometidos tras elecciones del 28J:
Más de 2400 personas detenidas
This article shows the tremendous learning over 25 years and extraordinary preparation and efforts of the opposition leaders and electoral witnesses in documenting Venezuela's vote July 28.
Biden should not agree to another debate unless format removes “open discussion” and moderator has control of mics and courage to cut them off. This was a disgrace for any student of any level to watch and will alienate them from politics for a long time.
I agree with
@jcorrales2011
:"Jul 28 was the example that democrats worldwide in autocratizing settings needed to see."The efforts by a united opposition to mobilize AND collect proof + a people demanding change in their life by voting are unprecedented in Ven and perhaps globally
Why should the world focus on Venezuela? What the opposition has demonstrated is historic, with implications for the future of liberty in the world. Let me explain. Thread
good list of Maduro allies, but I would not put Colombia and Brazil in same class with the others. they are actively looking for a solution (even if too softly) and are affected very negatively by prospect of Maduro continuation and even greater mass migration.
@jcorrales2011
The International Relations of Venezuela's impasse. The Maduro govt is kept in power, in part, because of its coup-proofing, but also because of its international allies. Who are these allies and what are they defending in Venezuela? Thread
#Venezuela
. There is still lots of room to negotiate transparency in official voting results:
*Publish results by mesa (table).
*2.7 million (20%) votes not included in CNE report last night, > difference NM - EG.
*Scheduled audits suspended (see
@puzkas
for Spanish explanation)
From 2016."Pol. outsiders like Chávez and Trump rise when pol. insiders are perceived as failing to listen...But when voters give messianic leaders unchecked political power...,they [usher in] a dangerous concentration of power subject to their whims."
Tensions are rising and incidents of violence occurring. It is urgent for the authorities to resolve this peacefully by being transparent, and for internationals to facilitate negotiations if necessary.
Crucial thing is some form of transitional govt that can address econ/humanitarian emergency while reforming crucial election/judicial institutions AND guarantee future PSUV political life and clarify transitional justice provisions.
Congrats to
@GSUPoliSci
Professor
@jlynnmccoy
whose work on political and social polarization in democracies has earned her the rank of Regents' Professor, the highest professorial rank within the University System of Georgia! Read about her work here:
Pedro Nikken era un hombre honesto y gentil con profunda compromiso a los derechos humanos mundiales y buscando una solucion al terrible problema de Venezuela. Tuve el honor trabajar muchos anos con Pedro. Es una perdida grandisima.
@tashecon
I think you are underselling KK and Nation Alliance. He negotiated a 6-party alliance; they came up with a 244 page programmatic agreement; disarming social media campaign to combat info control and disinfo; positive campaign, while RTE resorted to disinfo and vilification/hate.
Intl Contact Group still good option for negotiations. Could be power-sharing interim to reform institutions and prepare general elections; could be technocratic interim until presidential elections under new CNE. Either way will take time.
Both sides attempting to measure strength in planned May Day marches. But people may be confused or scared, uncertain of the outcome of yesterday’s events and opposition communications impeded, so marches may not be as large as in past.
Call for proposals for depolarization workshop in Budapest, June 2024. Deadline for proposal is Jan 15, 2024. Please join
@AndreasSchedler
,
@murat_somer_eng
, and me in Budapest! See link:
Here is my full interview of
@MarilynRMarks1
re: the portions of Georgia’s new law permitting a GOP takeover of bipartisan county election boards. She explains why the provisions are so dangerous, how they work, & the legal basis for the challenge. 4/
Fue una noche muy difícil para los testigos de la oposición. Quiero explicarles cómo se robaron las elecciones anoche:
1.- Cada mesa emite un voto anónimo que va a sistema, pero al mismo tiempo entrega una boleta física.
2.- Las boletas quedan por si hubiese caída de sistema y
Notable things about Bolivia: 1)Govt agreed to binding results from Oas Audit. 2) OAS said rerun elections w/new authorities and Evo acceded. 3)Too little too late after proof of fraud produced no admission of responsibility by govt. 4)Protest grew and mil/police abandoned govt.
El informe de auditoría de la
@OEA_oficial
sobre los resultados electorales en
#Bolivia
es un hito histórico en la lucha por la integridad electoral en América Latina. Sus efectos irán más allá de Bolivia. El equipo auditor merece una enorme felicitación.
Fox News John Roberts actually said Trump’s baseless claims were the sign of a man who knows he’s losing. The reporters are saying there must be evidence produced of any fraud claims. MSNBC actually interrupted his speech to call out the baseless claims.
Venezuela is experiencing state terrorism. PROVEA:
Since July 28 election, 25 persons killed in protests.
More than 2400 detained arbitrarily [including children].
At least 50 forced disappearances [targeted kidnappings of people associated with opposition campaign and leaders.]
Venezuela a un mes de las elecciones del 28 de julio:
-25 personas asesinadas en contexto de protestas.
-Más de 2400 detenidos arbitrariamente.
-Al menos 50 desapariciones forzadas.
-Masivas violaciones al debido proceso y DDHH.
Un terrorismo de Estado.
@davidfrum
is correct that creating a democracy vs authoritarianism cleavage is essential now to save American democracy. Biden attempted to do that last Thursday night. But research shows that voters do not vote on abstract democracy principles (thread).
So about this idea, much discussed in certain quarters, that Biden should have expressed himself in a more high-minded manner in Philadelphia, with less effort to win votes for Democratic candidates in 2022 ...
Nuestra especial felicitación y saludo Democrático, Socialista y Revolucionario al Presidente
@NicolasMaduro
y al valiente pueblo de Venezuela por su inobjetable triunfo, que reafirma su soberanía y el legado histórico del Comandante
@chavezcandanga
.
Maduro govt controls everything else: bureaucracy, courts, legislature, security forces. So power-sharing needs to be negotiated regardless.
Lula/Petro not be as tough as we may want, but they are NOT accepting Maduro's victory. They are trying to keep door open it seems....
@tashecon
I'm in Istanbul and saw the excitement yesterday. Sure, weaknesses, but you seem to be falling into same trap of "blame the oppo candidate" that we saw together in Hungary, while ignoring the huge structural obstacles erected by the entrenched elected autocrat.
Luego de leer documento que el gobierno quería firmar da la impresión de que delegación opositora actuó adecuadamente al no suscribir texto que solo era un marco general. Gbno. venezolano no cumple con Constitución, menos se puede esperar que cumpla con un acuerdo de palabra.
Our peer-reviewed paper (with
@jlynnmccoy
) about Venezuela's unstable equilibrium just published in the Chilean RCP- Revista de Ciencia Politica. Any comment and review are most welcomed.
Un esfuerzo important documentar, y cuando necesario denunciar, el cumplimiento del gobierno Ven con las normas electorales. Si participan los ciudadanos, ONGs y partidos ahora, puedan monitorear y reportar a la comunidad internacional. Y MAS CERCA a la fecha, decidir votar o no.
This is an important effort to document, + when necessary denounce, the rate of compliance of the Venezuelan government with electoral norms. If Ven citizens, NGOs, & parties participate, they can monitor and report to intl community. THEN decide whether to vote on April 22.
Important article by
@dmontyjr
, How to Save America From Extremism by Changing the Way We Vote
“The U.S. is really an outlier when you look at other advanced democracies”-Jennifer McCoy
The cultural challenge requires structural change -
@NormOrnstein
Ozgur Ozel
@ecozgurozel
delivered a much needed, very humble speech calling Turkish citizens to unity at a time when the nation is deeply divided. Kudos!
Lula and Petro floated new ideas trying to move Maduro: new election or coalition govt. Opposition won't accept new election nor should they have to (& Maduro won't accept fair conditions). If Gonzalez becomes president, tho, it will in essence be shared power because...
Def. of refugees UN recommends re 1984 Cartagena Decl: "fled..because their lives, safety or freedom have been threatened by generalized violence, foreign aggression, internal conflicts, massive violation of human rights or other circumstances..seriously disturbed public order."
Meanwhile, regime continues its terror and today law against NGOs + closing social media. Migration growing. THESE need to be urgent focus of negotiations and pressure also. EU, Inter-American Commission Human Rights, UN expert report, UNHCHR all adding to pressure on regime.
"Citizens can refuse to participate in the trap of demonizing politics, insisting on voting massively against those who use polarizing methods." Extreme political polarization weakens democracy – can the US avoid that fate?
But it will take a larger society-wide effort to recover American democracy. Business, academia, cultural, faith, and grass-roots orgs need to press for institutional reforms and clearly denounce violence and anti-democratic behavior where it exists.
This morning on
@Morning_Joe
@JoeNBC
asked me, and I'm paraphrasing, what it was going to take for the West to defend Ukraine, to step up and defend the innocent people of that country from slaughter at the hands of the Russians. I offered up a pretty standard answer.
Thus, politicians and parties committed to democracy need to connect the benefits of democracy to personal well-being, spelling out the consequences of losing voting rights, as Frum suggests that Biden did with women's reproductive rights.
I hope Brazilian exit polls asked if voters’ motivation was a negative vote against the other vs positive for their own candidate. Democracy vs authoritarianism message from civil society not so convincing for many non-poor. Fear of Lula too strong or love of Bolsonaro too high?
I should have said in this tweet, with no apparent offers of guarantees sufficient to NM's mind. It's possible there were prior offers rejected by NM, and nothing will dislodge him voluntarily.
Venezuelan pres. Maduro’s declaration of victory with no published detailed vote results is a brazen act, but not so surprising. With no prior negotiated guarantees of safety from prosecution, Maduro opted to simply ignore the results. 1/4
As we honor Jimmy Carter, here are a few memories of my 28 years with him.
I assisted Carter’s work encouraging democracy – and saw how his experience, persistence and engineer’s mindset helped build a freer Latin America over decades via
@ConversationUS
Excellent analysis by
@SlaterPolitics
. "The thorniest problem in Thai politics is that Thai voters have never won popular sovereignty...[now]they are demanding it." Thailand’s Revolutionary Election via
@JoDemocracy
Missing a lot: on elections - too short time for audits and registration; no guarantees UN would accept to form observer mission; doesn’t allow disqualified candidates and parties. On economy - only lifting sanctions, no humanitarian aid or change in Econ policy.
Notable that the document also only allowed a week-long period for the growing number of Venezuelans living abroad (an opposition base) to register to vote.
I agree with
@DPantoulas
-a pluralist interim government plus more proportional electoral system will lower the stakes of current winner-take-all scenarios that impede change.
Beyond diagnosis, here I offer some concrete political and institutional solutions of how to move out of Venezuela's stalemate. A power-sharing agreement, an inclusive interim government, and changing the electoral system. "Untangling the Gordian Knot".
This is an important effort to document, + when necessary denounce, the rate of compliance of the Venezuelan government with electoral norms. If Ven citizens, NGOs, & parties participate, they can monitor and report to intl community. THEN decide whether to vote on April 22.
Las
#Presidenciales2018
convocadas por el
#CNE
no sólo violan principios y lapsos establecidos en la ley sino que evidencian un recorte en las
#GarantiasElectorales
con menos dias y menos puntos para todos los venezolanos q deben inscribirse en el
#RE
@tashecon
Not to mention the extreme pernicious polarization making it so difficult to move people. Turkish oppo went further than most in coordination and new collective leadership, and getting this close. Plus AKP lost seats in parliament.
I'll be presenting a paper about "Democratic hypocrisy: Polarized citizens support democracy-eroding behavior when their own party is in power" on this panel about Solutions to Polarization Thursday, 4:00 pm EDT at APSA
Today Turkish voters may provide a morale boost for democracy. Enthusiastic voting started at 8 am and will close at 5 pm. Normal turnout is 80% and it may be higher. Turks value their right to vote very highly. 1/4
Giving keynote lecture on polarization in supercool old convent at IE University in Segovia Spain at ECPR summer school with Saskia Ruth and Nina Wiesehomeier
To elaborate on comment here: Risk of government using their normal strategy of detention to stop a rising popular rival who is giving hope and new energy to opposition movement. But Assembly’s new offer of amnesty changes game too.
An emboldened opposition plans a showdown with Maduro next week. Guaido “is smart in realizing he can’t just declare himself president,”
@jlynnmccoy
says. But "there's also risks. It gives them an excuse to arrest him, as they've done to others."
@leedrutman
This is important to always point out the % of entire electorate as well as within the party. News reports focus on % of Republicans supporting Trump, specific actions, etc which sounds like a lot, but actually small % of people in the country.
I was delighted to talk with Ceejay Hayes at the Cambridge Overcoming Polarization Initiative in this new podcast. See also the other inaugural conversation with my colleague Tom Carothers.
Polarization as a Global Phenomenon with Jennifer McCoy
My new research with
@littvay
and
@simonovitsgabor
on support for democratic norm violations by Americans supporting both parties, when their own party holds the presidency. Thread below.
If Evo hadn’t already ignored popular referendum rejecting reelection, the fury of protestors might have been abated with his accession to new elections. But this is a longer burning fire than just October. What surprised me most was his agreeing to binding OAS recs.
@Mapigargua
claro, negociaciones no tiene que ser necesariamente con Maduro. Puede ser con FFAA y otros actores que puedan retirar su apoyo a el. Asi ha funcionado otras transiciones en America Latina.
While I’m somewhat heartened by Fox News demanding evidence, the fact that Trump claimed he has won the “legal votes” already and the rest is fraud is alarming, dangerous and disgusting .
Turkey election results (unofficial): 52% Erdogan, 48% Kilicdaroglu. Decent result for opposition fighting extensive disinformation and patronage spending from govt, but also shows very divided Turkey with support for Erdogan style politics. Possible irregularities still to see.
In this article,
@murat_somer_eng
and I discuss why it's so hard to defeat entrenched democratic backsliders. Hungary's recent election shows that such leaders are likely to be defeated only when they become vulnerable due to loss of a key resource. 1/3
Trump looks like socialist Hugo Chavez. Populist presidents in Mexico, Venezuela, Turkey and elsewhere take personal credit for government programs before elections, trying to draw a direct line between themselves and the recipients and ignoring Congressional mandates or support.
The USDA’s $4 billion Farmers to Families Food Box Program has distributed more than 100 million boxes to those in need since May. Last week, the agency began mandating the boxes include these letters from President Trump claiming credit for the program 👇
My take: "American democracy is much more vulnerable than many once thought. Opportunistic politicians who engage in anti-system behavior must be held accountable; failing to do so invites more anti-democratic and violent behavior." Thread.
This was such an important Politics in Question conversation with
@jlynnmccoy
. We dig into what lessons from Venezuela, Hungary, and Turkey apply to current US politics and talk about the dangers of "pernicious polarization."
@julia_azari
@jiwallner
New special issue out on public attitudes toward FARC and Colombian peace accord, with important lessons about legitimacy of transitional justice and political participation of unpopular actors.
Esp. in highly polarized contexts, seeing the other side as an existential threat, voters will choose their own side even if sacrificing democratic principles. Graham/Svolik (2020) and my own research with
@simonovitsgabor
,
@littvay
show this for the U.S.
In all the photos of Venezuelan negotiating tables and decision-making arenas, lack of women have been a glaring omission.
@BeticaMunozPogo
points out the implications here.