Latin American Elections
@LatAmerElection
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Associate Prof., Political Science Elections in Latin America: Campaigns, Voters, and Institutions:
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🚨🚨I’m thrilled to announce that my book, Elections in Latin America: Campaigns, Voters, and Institutions, is now available for pre-order from Rowman & Littlefield! (Exam copies can be ordered at link)🧵
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For anyone preparing syllabi on Latin American politics, here is a megathread on some of the readings I am assigning this spring in my undergrad class. They are readings I have had success with in past semesters, or new things I think are going to work well for my students.
🧵
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So it begins.
A day after gubernatorial elections in Edomex and Coahuila, AMLO is meeting tonight (Mon) with his party's top presidential pre-candidates, party leaders, and governors.
It's been expected the succession battle would ramp up but he could also be trying to avoid party divisions.
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Decades of research on democratic transitions, and it always comes back to Dahl 1971.
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2022 has been a crazy year in Latin American politics. Here’s my top ten list of the most notable and consequential events of the year. Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments – I may have missed some things that should have made the list. 🧵
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❗️2023 has been another eventful year in Latin American politics. Here’s my TOP TEN list of the most notable and consequential events of the year. Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments – I may have missed some things that should have made the list. 🧵
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#Guatemala
It's something of a miracle that Bernardo Arévalo will take office today. From a shocking 2nd place showing in the first round of voting, through relentless attacks from corrupt actors to prevent his victory in the runoff... 🧵
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🇧🇴 Bolivia's constitutional court annuls indefinite reelection. Regardless of views on Evo Morales, this is good news for democracy in Bolivia. It undoes a prior (dubious) court ruling that allowed Morales to run for a 4th term in 2019. Morales now won't be able to run in 2025.
El
@TCP_bolivia
basándose en una opinión de la
@CorteIDH
a través de la sentencia 1010/2023, suspendió la reelección indefinida.
En 2016 la Corte boliviana declaró que Evo Morales
@evoespueblo
podía optar por un 4to mandato, declarando que se limitaban sus derechos pol. (1/2)
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-Failed self-coup (Peru 2022)
-Failed judicial coup (Guatemala 2023)
-Failed military coup (Bolivia 2024)
The land of fragile institutions, democratic resilience, and conceptual stretching🤷
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🚨 I've seen enough: Bernardo Arévalo has won the presidential election in Guatemala.🇬🇹
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One election can't wipe away years of corruption and repression. But take a moment to appreciate that a candidate that elites didn't even notice enough to disqualify has just pulled off a landslide upset of historic proportions. Felicidades,
@BArevalodeLeon
!🌱🌱🌱
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The protests today in Guatemala look like the largest mobilization so far to defend this year's election results. With persistence and steadfast international support, Porras and Curruchiche's days may be numbered.
En momentos como este, delante de esa unidad que es nuestro pueblo, deberían sobrar las palabras porque el pueblo ya habló: quiere el cambio, recuperar la esperanza, recuperar el futuro y las instituciones.
Las palabras deberían sobrar, pero hay quienes no quieren escuchar. Por
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Still no statement from Sandra Torres recognizing the election result. She cancelled her planned press conference last night. Arévalo, on the other hand, has been conciliatory in victory. That tells you all you need to know about who the real democrat is.
#RadarElectoral
Durante la conferencia de prensa, Arévalo envió un mensaje a Sandra Torres: «A ellas y a sus electores quiero que sepan que no serán marginados». Además, agregó que sus derechos serán respetados. Así mismo llamó a la unidad para trabajar por el país.
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Following the Venezuela election has shown me I've really been underestimating the extent of left-wing nutjobbery out there (like hotel lobby boy cosplaying as a journalist here). Yes there's more of it on the right, but still, wow. Ideology's a hell of a drug.
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The Carter Center recognizes Edmundo González as the winner of Venezuela's presidential election.
🇻🇪 El
@CarterCenter
ha "analizado los números" disponibles junto a otras organizaciones y universidades y "confirma a Edmundo González Urrutia como el ganador con más del 60%" de los votos.
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Let me say, 🇻🇪oppo has been IMPRESSIVE. They faced a coordinated effort to deny their poll watchers access to tally sheets & keep their representatives from the tabulation center. Yet they managed to collect over 70% of tally sheets, scan them, and post them on the web in 24hrs.
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Wow. Protesters fighting to ensure that Arévalo and duly elected members of Congress. assume office.
This is literally starting to look like a reverse January 6.
Manifestantes rompen el bloqueo de la PNC en la 7a avenida y 9a calle.
Avanzan hacia el Congreso.
📷
@PiaLaPeriodista
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Some contested elections are murky. Evidence can be unclear. But not this 🇻🇪election. This is the most obvious & blatant stolen election you will ever see. Anyone claiming otherwise is either not a good faith actor or simply does not know what the fuck they’re talking about🧵
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Nadie en América Latina ha sido un mejor defensor de la democracia en los últimos años que
@GabrielBoric
. Nadie ha sido un idiota más útil para la dictadura que este tipo Monedero.
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📚One more syllabus for the new year! If anyone is putting together an undergrad Intro Comparative Politics syllabus and looking for non-textbook readings, maybe this will be helpful. I'm assigning Spin Dictators by
@sguriev
and
@dstreisman
, along with various other pieces.
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Important message from Semilla's leader and congressional deputy. Regardless of the outcome of the review of vote tallies, the pacto's lawfare is forcing Semilla to defend the election results (and its party registration) instead of focusing on campaigning.
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🇻🇪 The state of play this morning: This is a massive fraud, much bigger than Mexico 1988 – more like Philippines 1986 or Belarus 2020. CNE has presented no evidence supporting its results, and simply gave all minor candidates 4.6% (with votes for all candidates = >over 100%).🧵
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It's hard to think of parallels to what's happening in Guatemala right now. A corrupt judge authorizes corrupt prosecutors to raid the offices of an independent branch of gov't and threaten arrest of election officials, raid offices of a political party, cancel the party's...
The Court denies the requested provisional injunction by TSE, but reminds everyone to stick to what was decided in the July 13th order, where they made it crystal clear that they couldn’t suspend the Semilla party and thus cannot go after the citizens’ registry personnel. Who’s
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Looks like maybe Maduro's move here is to pretend to show elections results, privately, to a court he controls, which will then issue a ruling saying he won. And this will be enough of a fig leaf for regime apologists to say the process was legit.
Maduro said they would file 100% of the cote tallies before the TSJ so the court could certify the win.
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🚨🇻🇪 CNE announces Maduro has won, in a clearly stolen election.
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🇻🇪Status update: The CNE remains silent. Chavistas claim victory. Defense minister gives a cryptic address. With electronic voting and only 1 race to count, CNE knows the results. But regime is clearly planning to steal election. Looking like this will be decided in the streets.
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A lot of uncertainty this morning about Guatemala’s election. In this 🧵I'll share some analysis (see the end for some of the latest news links). The situation pits the law versus power. First, the law:
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As an election geek whose dissertation was on election administration, it warms my hear seeing actas take center stage in a major world news story.❤️
Ciudadanos entregan actas a Edmundo González Urrutia y María Corina Machado en la “asamblea ciudadana” en Chacao hoy:
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A nice graphic from Reuters showing Peru's congressional fragmentation (one of many factors behind the country's political dysfunction). Still no early elections in sight.
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🚨 Guatemala's Supreme Court grants a permanent injunction blocking the cancellation of the Semilla party. This won't be the end of the story, but it puts up a roadblock to canceling the party after tomorrow's election (to strip it of congressional seats).
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🚨I’m thrilled to see this new and timely volume on Guatemala in print! It was a privilege to contribute to this project along with a great group of scholars. 🙏
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Guatemala's
@TSEGuatemala
has denied an appeal by the MLP and rejected the inscription of the party's presidential ticket. The TSE - which has been co-opted by corrupt networks - seems intent on preventing any viable leftist candidate from competing.
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🚨 Big development in Guatemala: the constitutional court rules that all elected candidates must be allowed to take office. 🌱
🇬🇹 En definitiva: La Corte de Constitucionalidad ordena que todas las personas electas deben tomar posesión el próximo 14 de enero del 2023.
Más detalles 👇
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Reporter: "If you lose, will you accept the results?"
Torres: (stares angrily)
#RadarElectoral
Sandra Torres, candidata presidenciable por UNE, ha emitido su voto en el colegio Valle Verde. Al preguntarle si aceptaría el resultado si pierde, permaneció en silencio. Su equipo de seguridad impidió que respondiera más preguntas a la prensa, reporta
@jose_dag26
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🇻🇪 What we know so far:
-Turnout is high
-Reports of staff slowing down voting at some polling places
-Reports of vote secrecy being violated at some polling places
None of this is surprising. Maduro is still facing a big loss, and things could get really dicey this evening
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Without hyperbole, the next few hours could be pivotal in Guatemalan history. Either voters have a chance to turn around the erosion of democracy and rule of law, or the Constitutional Court throws the country into all-out authoritarianism. 🇬🇹
In Guatemala today, losing parties are trying to get the Constitutional Court to do what Trump tried to get Mike Pence to do: throw out an election result when they have *no legal basis to do so.*
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"El Salvador President Nayib Bukele nominated for reelection despite clear constitutional prohibition." Fixed it for you.
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Machado calls for peaceful nationwide demonstrations on Saturday. Meanwhile, Maduro announces the construction of two prisons/reeducation camps for opponents.
Maduro will never release the real election results. Venezuela is in a protest v. repression cycle now.
#Ahora
@MariaCorinaYA
llamó a la movilización de su militancia en familia este sábado
#3Ago
, en la Av. Principal de Las Mercedes en Caracas, para hacer valer la verdad que eligieron los venezolanos el pasado
#28Jul
.
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This is an amazing lineup of discussants - S. Levitsky, F. Hagopian, and
@ProfTortuga
- to discuss new work by
@TaylorBoas
. There's a virtual option to attend for those of us not in Beantown!
10/11 @ 12PM ET: Evangelicals and Electoral Politics in Latin America: A Kingdom of This World (Hybrid) with
@TaylorBoas
, Boston University
➡️
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Did I just wake up in an alternate reality? HOLY S**T!!!
#DecisionLibre2023
| Según el TSE, existe una tendencia casi definitiva que se inclina por una segunda vuelta electoral entre Sandra Torres y Bernardo Arévalo. Estos son los datos preliminares a las 03.24 horas de este 26 de junio.
#VotaBienInformado
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Corruptos fighting until the end. Guatemala's Congress appears to be in chaos as the outgoing legislators are withholding credentials from newly elected deputies.
🚨 URGENTE | Así diputados electos irrumpen en la sala donde la Junta Calificadora ha pasado ya varias horas sin darles las credenciales. Además, se las ha impedido el ingreso a otros congresistas.
“¡Aca se está fraguando el golpe!”, gritan.
@AgenciaOcote
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The opposition to Bukele is planning to unite behind a single presidential candidate in next year's election. Amazing to think of FMLN and ARENA being in the same coalition, but that's how much El Salvador's politics have changed in the past 4 years. 🇸🇻
🇸🇻
#ElSalvador
| Arena y el FMLN han acordado aliarse con los partidos Vamos y Nuestro Tiempo para impulsar una candidatura presidencial que compita en las elecciones de 2024. Conoce los detalles en este nuevo reporte de
@glabrador
.
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Venezuelans are starting to take to the streets in Caracas. Whatever happens next - and it could be tragic - will be the fault of a little man and his inner circle of criminals who refuse to accept the will of their own people. And the regime's many apologists will be complicit.
Así se encuentra la Dolorita en estos momentos. Lo mismo ocurre en muchas zonas de Petare. No vamos a aceptar el fraude que nos pretenden imponer.
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Good piece on Arévalo's efforts to expand his support base outside of Guatemala City.
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...and then to prevent him from taking office, it’s an inspiring story of Guatemalans’ desire for a better country. Mass citizen mobilization (especially indigenous peoples) & international support made this day possible...
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Nicaragua's descent into a one-party state is complete: FSLN wins every mayoralty in the country.
Nicaragua, municipal elections, all results counted:
Nationwide mayors elected
FSLN (left): 153
The governing Sandinista National Liberation Front has won the mayorships of all municipalities in the country, with a turnout of only 17%.
#Nicaragua
#eleccionessoberanas2022
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Nicaragua's regime has turbas. Venezuela's regime has the colectivos. Now in Guatemala, the thugs come out to attack pro-democracy protesters. Sadly predictable.
Day 15
#ParoNacionalIndefinido
a person died of gunshot wounds and another was injured during Guatemala's ongoing rural blockades. Groups of armed men, alleged paramilitary forces supported by officeholders, opened fire against unarmed civilians to attack pro-democracy protests.
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Sandra Torres is now campaigning on QAnon stuff. This is just bizarre.
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🇻🇪 🗳️
#Venezuela
's election Sunday is likely to be the country's most consequential since 1998. Maduro's regime will try everything to prevent an opposition victory. But even authoritarian elections can produce liberalizing outcomes – especially when the opposition is united.🧵
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If you're wondering if the Vnzla gov't is so inept that they couldn't make up plausible numbers, yes it's possible. BUT, dictatorships often rig elections blatantly as a show of strength. "Look, we can do whatever we want and you can't stop us."
Extraordinario esto, según anunció la CNE la noche de la elección, los resultados fueron:
Maduro 51.2%
Edmundo 44.2%
Otros 4.6%
Pero si queremos saber % con varios decimales, y recurrimos a número de votos, vemos que no hubo ni un voto de desvío de números redondos:
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Arévalo will face a tremendously difficult situation: a limited budget passed by the outgoing Congress, institutional wreckage of the Giammattei and Morales governments, a minority bancada in Congress, Porras possibly remaining attorney general, etc...
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📚Mail delivery this weekend!
Now I've got my copies. Be sure to get yours!
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Problem with 5-month presidential transitions in Guatemala: too much time for corrupt actors to derail the transition.
Problem with 3-week presidential transitions in Argentina: too little time for inexperienced outsiders to prepare for governing.
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Guatemala’s election is here. Rather than an exercise in democracy, it’s an election that marks the rise of competitive authoritarianism. Some thoughts on the election process, focused on electoral integrity (on basics of the system, see the great thread from
@FEscrutinio
). 🧵
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🇬🇹 It looks like we will find out in the coming days whether Giammattei, Porras, & company will play their final card and annul the 2023 election. If so, expect the OAS to invoke the Inter-American Democratic Charter and suspend Guatemala. Also expect more US & EU sanctions.
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If anyone sees hopeful signs that the Maduro regime is not about to go full Nicaragua/Myanmar/Belarus, I'd love to hear it. It won't be surprising if we're seeing violence in the streets by tonight. Fingers crossed for regime defections.
Venezuela names opposition leader María Corina Machado as a key suspect in its investigation of alleged electoral sabotage in Sunday’s presidential vote, a move against a popular figure who rallied millions of supporters to the polls,
@crayton_h
reports
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Sadly, this will be the image that defines Ecuador's election today.
🇪🇨 | Elecciones en Ecuador: Con chaleco antibalas, casco y escudo protector, votó Zurita, el candidato que reemplazó al asesinado Villavicencio.
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"Massive deployment of the police state, armed colectivos and informants seeks to obliterate the social capital and hope created throughout the campaign and the electoral victory of July 28." Read this important piece.👇
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In case you're wondering if it's normal for a president to declare election results while votes are still being counted and the electoral commission is silent...
It is not.
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On how Guatemala got to this moment, read this great piece from
@viaSimonRomero
and
@JodyReporta
.
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If you see exit polls today, they're bullsh*t. Exit polls are illegal in Venezuela, and those I've seen posted today are from regime propagandists. They should be ignored.
Empezó la guerra de los exit polls. No caigamos en ese juego.
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How much of a landslide is Arévalo's victory? He's leading in 18 of 23 departments, with over 92% of the vote in.
Among valid votes (excluding blank & null), it's:
Arévalo 62.3%
Torres 37.7%
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No one knows how this will all end, but something special is happening in Guatemala. A cross-class, multi-ethnic protest movement is fighting for democracy and against corrupt elites that will stop at nothing to maintain their impunity. Impresionante ✊
Protesters block the Inter American highway demanding the resignation of Attorney General Consuelo Porras and prosecutor Rafael Curruchiche in Quiche and Totonicapan, Guatemala, Friday, Oct. 6, 2023. (AP Photos/Moises Castillo)
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I've seen enough: Santiago Peña will be Paraguay's next president. Colorados are also leading in congressional races. Given difficult econ conditions and corruption allegations, this is a testament to the party's dominance of Paraguayan politics. (And a huge miss by pollsters!)
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I just came across this new edited volume on mano dura, which looks absolutely fantastic and has a great lineup of contributors. And it's timely, given the appeal of Bukelismo right now. Hopefully it comes out in a more affordable paperback edition soon.
Our book on Mano Dura Policies in Latin America, edited with
@DrJonathanRosen
, is available for pre-order!
Leading scholars come together to untangle the factors that have fueled their implementation, rising popularity, and impacts on democracy in Latin America.
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Man desperately looking forward to retirement speaks after casting his vote.
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Ecuador, presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio has been assassinated at a campaign rally. This is tragic, and an indicator of how bad the narco situation has become in the country.
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I don’t use a textbook. But if I did, I would probably choose the new text from
@GerardoMunck
and
@anulolbapnauj
. It looks like it will be new leading text in the field.
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If what Machado said is true, the opposition has enough tally sheets (actas) to show the world that they won in a landslide. And they are posting them online.
Meanwhile, Venezuelan police appear to be going after the opposition leaders taking refuge in Argentina's embassy.
#AHORA
🚨| Actas anunciadas por María Corina Machado al 73%:
Edmundo González = 6.265.182*
Nicolás Maduro = 2.759.256
* Puede ser 75 pero la gente gritó muy fuerte, esperemos a que las publiquen😂
#VenezuelaLibre
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Not only did Mulet end up 5th (!), and Zury 6th, but Valor only won 13 seats in Congress (4 in coalition w/ Unionistas). Semilla won 24 - almost as many as UNE (27). This is bonkers.
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Javier Milei has introduced a massive, sweeping omnibus bill to Congress that would drastically expand presidential powers and affect a wide range of policy areas. The bill also includes electoral reforms: eliminating the PASO primaries, adopting a unified paper ballot (👍),...
El proyecto ómnibus de Milei modifica la base de representación de Diputados, pasando de 161 mil a 180 mil (o fracción no menor a 90 mil) por banca, eliminando el adicional de 3 y el mínimo de 5 por distrito. Con los datos del censo 2022 proyectamos las nuevas bancas por distrito
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🇻🇪Polls close in 10 minutes. (Those still in line are allowed to vote.) Then the real battle begins. CNE officials should know within 1-2 hours what way it’s heading. But that doesn’t mean the rest of us will know. Delay is likely. Tensions will be high. Take a deep breath.
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Una metáfora perfecta del proceso de erosión democrática: paso a paso.
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Hopefully a new Guatemalan spring has arrived. But there is a lot of potential for Arévalo's presidency to be derailed before it begins. AP lays out the possible pitfalls.
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📖Nuevo número de
#RevistaElecciones
con artículos sobre recientes elecciones en Argentina y Guatemala, y mucho más. Con contribuciones de
@juliofcarrion1
,
@NoamLupu
,
@JeraldinedelCid
,
@AnaSlimovich
,
@virgbeaudoux
,
@acuna_fabian
,
@OkadaIsamu
, y otros: 👇
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Today began with the police raiding the electoral tribunal. It ends with a sense of celebration, with Arévalo presenting a denuncia to the Constitutional Court against prosecutors after winning an amparo. What a day. 🇬🇹
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Some elections are so marred by irregularities it's unclear who won. In such cases (e.g., as the OAS suggested in Bolivia in 2019), it makes sense to redo the election. This election is Venezuela is not one of these cases. González won, Maduro lost, and it wasn't close. Basta ya.
Esto es una vergüenza
#Venezuela
Celso Amorim: El principal asesor de Lula le sugiere unas nuevas elecciones en Venezuela | EL PAÍS América
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Things I learned this weekend:
1. We political analysts know nothing about Russian military affairs.
2. We absolutely cannot predict election outcomes. 🌱
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The pacto de corruptos is not going out easily. Sandra Torres's UNE has filed a challenge to the results of the runoff election, alleging without evidence that there was fraud. In an election she lost by over 20 points.
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In 55 seconds Claudia Sheinbaum 1) says fraud kept AMLO from winning the presidency in 2006, 2) calls for INE councilors to be directly elected (a terrible idea), and of course 3) presents antidemocratic populism as real democracy.
.
@Claudiashein
asegura que
@VicenteFoxQue
hizo fraude electoral en 2006 para que perdiera AMLO
“Dicen que nosotros vamos a traer el autoritarismo, pero ellos son los autoritarios. Nosotros queremos que aumente la democracia, por eso queremos conservar al
@INEMexico
, pero que no
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@raulpacheco
Good thread. I always assign the article below to my students - it's a fantastic guide. Then I assign a few sample lit reviews for them to read, and we go over them in minute detail. Still, it's a difficult style to learn.
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Ahora te toca a ti, Guatemala
Un elemento distintivo de la democracia: elecciones libres y justas que llevan al traspaso pacífico de mando entre presidentes. 👏
#Argentina
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Here's the very early, and unsurprising, trend in Guatemala: Torres is doing well in some rural departments, but is getting destroyed in the greater metro area. Here's Distrito Central so far:
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The new issue of
@JoDemocracy
has two important articles on Latin America: one (below) on Latin American judges defending democracy, the other from Kurt Weyland on how democracy survives populism (a short version of his forthcoming book). And they're free!
Judges in Brazil, Columbia, and Mexico are showing a surprising resolve in defending democracy, write CDDRL affiliated faculty Diego A. Zambrano (
@stanfordlaw
) and co-authors in the January 2024 issue of
@jodemocracy
.
🔗:
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Comparative Politics 101: I teach my students that dictators must, above all, ensure loyalty of the security forces. Because 1) you need them to repress, & 2) they are the group most likely to overthrow you. We'll see how well Maduro has done so, but so far it looks good for him.
It’s clear Maduro has long been preparing for these protests by consolidating the military’s loyalty to him
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Manuel Baldizón, one of the most notoriously criminal politicians in Guatemala in recent years and who was just recently released from prison, may be on the ballot for Congress this year. The term "pacto de corruptos" seems like an understatement these days.
Actualización:
Baldizón finalmente correrá por la primera casilla de Listado Nacional (un cargo que aumenta sus posibilidades de ser electo)
¿Cómo resolverá el TSE este y otros puntos?
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Actas & int'l statements are important, but only indirectly. All that directly matters now is how many people the 🇻🇪security forces are willing to arrest, torture, & kill, and how many Venezuelans keep protesting.
Maduro threatened a bloodbath & civil war. He may deliver both.
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📚Summer Reading Goals.
I'm reading recent scholarship on populism: just finished
@JulioFCarrion1
's book (I recommend!), and really looking forward to new ones from Kurt Weyland and
@matthewpurdy123
/
@RachelNavarre
/S. Uytich. Also revisiting some classics of Cent. Amer. history.
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Fantastic thread to get caught up on developments in Guatemala. The coup goes on. One (of many) uncertainties is whether the cancellation of Semilla will prevent their deputies from taking office, or only prevent them from taking leadership and committee seats in Congress.
🇬🇹 It's been a week since Arévalo won the presidential runoff in
#Guatemala
. Here is a running, non-exhaustive list of what anti-democratic actors have done since then 🧵
1️⃣ Sandra Torres, the loser, has refused to concede. Her party, UNE, has filed a formal complaint... (1/n)
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🇻🇪 In the past hour or so:
-Formal statements from the U.S., EU, and Colombia have called BS on Venezuela's election results
-Peru has recognized González as president-elect
-Regime leaders have ramped up violent rhetoric against the opposition
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One of the best things about being an academic: getting to immerse yourself in summer reading. I’m enjoying getting caught up on some great recent work. And after meeting two of these authors at
@LASACONGRESS
, I can say that
@l_gamboag
&
@Gtrejo29
are delightful people!
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Quick thoughts on Argentina’s election.🇦🇷🧵
1. We shouldn’t be too surprised by the results. A Massa-Milei runoff was the most likely outcome, and that’s what we got. We knew polling was unreliable, so Milei underperforming a bit isn’t a shock.
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