boz
@bloggingsbyboz
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Writing about Latin America. Founder of @hxagon_tech . Weekly columnist at @WPReview . My analysis on Twitter is not always meant to be serious.
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Last Seen Profiles
Pinned Tweet
Mapping the region's ideological landscape. My attempt to explain the key points from my accidental Twitter meme yesterday.
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I've heard some people on Twitter aren't happy with the basic left vs right map for Latin America and want more nuance. So here's a first draft with more nuance.
If you don't like it, don't complain. Make a better one.
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Back in college, I spent almost a year attempting to learn Spanish in Chile. This is how I feel about the subject.
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I feel I mapped Peru accurately when I published this is early November.
Mapping the region's ideological landscape. My attempt to explain the key points from my accidental Twitter meme yesterday.
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Thanks for all the kind words. This map will definitely be the comic relief in my next professional consulting briefing about political risk in Latin America. For additional regional analysis, here is my substack:
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Hugo Chavez is trending on Twitter during a Rudy Giuliani press conference! Is it because Giuliani's law firm was paid $170,000 to lobby for Chavez around 2005-2007? Or is it his more recent lobbying work for corrupt Venezuelans linked to Maduro while he was also Trump's lawyer?
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When I did study abroad in Chile I listened to a US student criticize Nixon for backing the downfall of Allende only to have the Chilean professor respond, "It takes real gringo arrogance to believe Latin Americans can't plot their own coups." I think about that exchange often.
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As Simon Bolivar once tweeted, "Fighting against WhatsApp in Latin America is like plowing the sea."
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At the time, the university tried to convince me I needed another semester of classroom Spanish before going to Chile. Looking back, no amount of classroom Spanish would have prepared me. This is why studying abroad matters.
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AMLO is angry at the US for arresting a corrupt Mexican general and exposing the corruption within the Mexican military. AMLO doesn't seem angry at the corruption within the military. That's a huge problem.
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She's speaking in Spanish because the audience for the message is every CentAm news program that will play this whole damn clip. US media are obsessed with how Republicans react to the surge of migrants. The Biden admin understands that the GOP reaction is not the important part.
Biden immigration official Roberta Jacobson fielded and answered this White House briefing room question completely in Spanish
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This is approximately the seventh time this year pessimistic Twitter analysts have declared Guaido’s loss because he didn’t magically snap his fingers and win the day. And yet, every week this year, the pressure has increased on Maduro and more soldiers have jumped ship.
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@Javi_Urizar
Interesting! As ugly as that transition was, I don't consider it a coup attempt. But I'd be open to an argument for classifying it that way. Thanks for your comment. I'll think about it.
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Strategic advice for those working on Venezuela from overseas: Keep the criticisms on Maduro & his regime. Focus on demanding:
1) the release of the actas by the CNE
2) human rights protections for all, esp protesters
3) a democratic transition based on the true election results
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My current view on the region: We're still in a major anti-incumbent moment. But that trend will crash into a surprising number of pro-incumbent elections in 2024.
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In a global referendum about how much each country's citizens love hats with their country's flag on them, Venezuela would totally win.
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Hot take: Maduro doesn't know what he is going to do and whether he will accept the results that show he lost. It is being negotiated right now.
Hot take 2: Whatever the announced result this evening, it's not over. More pressure and negotiations to come.
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One good part about designating Mexican cartels as terrorist groups is that anyone providing weapons to them can be charged as aiding terrorists. I’d love to see antiterrorism laws used against straw buyers, gun shops and even large firearms companies making bulk sales.
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Random fact that may make it into today's newsletter: The US Capitol Police budget is larger than the annual budget for the entire Guatemalan military.
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1) Poor neighborhoods are protesting against Maduro at a level they haven't previously
2) Some protests are targeting military units, trying to convince them to turn against the regime
3) We haven't seen the full scale of counter-protest repression yet. It's going to get ugly.
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I'm getting questions about Chile. When creating the map I decided Pinochet wasn't elected and shouldn't be included. But then I included Cuba. So there is a logical inconsistency in the map.
tl;dr: Pinochet was corrupt. I may have miscoded the map. I'm sorry
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"or else...."
Nobody in the international community is yet willing to finish that sentence. Many will call on Venezuela to verify its vote count or to criticize the fraud, but until someone finishes that sentence with a credible threat, Maduro feels no fear from outside actors.
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Chile has vaccinated 1% of its population each of the last three days. Currently above 8% of the population vaccinated. That's impressive and very good news.
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There are currently a group of loud mariachis playing outside my office in Bogota and really undermining the point I want to make on my call that not all countries in Latin America are the same.
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If you combine today's WashPost story on colectivos and WSJ story on reduced profitability of crime in Venezuela, you can make a case that a socialist govt nationalizing criminal groups managed to destroy that sector.
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Argentina has high expectations but disappoints. Brazil briefly laughs at Argentina and then also fails. Welcome to the last 150 years of history.
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My neighborhood in Bogota is on a strict lockdown. As I walked past a restaurant, a guy leaned towards me and whispered, "tenemos mesa; segundo piso."
I didn't go in, but check off the list that I've been invited to my first clandestine speakeasy of the 2020 lockdown.
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Remember that time Venezuela (with Russia's help) invented the Petro cryptocurrency that was allegedly tied to the price of oil so that its value would never collapse.....
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Some time between 9:30PM and midnight, Maduro decided to move forward with the fraud. The decision was mostly but not unanimously supported by his inner circle. There are elements of the military who are unhappy. They'll portray unity from the outside, but they are nervous.
Hot take: Maduro doesn't know what he is going to do and whether he will accept the results that show he lost. It is being negotiated right now.
Hot take 2: Whatever the announced result this evening, it's not over. More pressure and negotiations to come.
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If you had told me one month ago that Maduro would try to steal the Venezuela election but three weeks later Lula and Petro still weren't recognizing his "win" and were pushing to negotiate other options, I'd have told you that was a sign of a likely positive scenario.
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A popular president changes or bends the rules to run again and is elected with overwhelming support. We've seen this story before. Menem, Fujimori, Chavez, Uribe, Correa, Morales, Ortega. Add Bukele's name to the list.
Where it goes next is often bad.
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Peru has had seven presidents in the past ten years. Three were elected and four were various non-election transitions of power.
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If Macri were Evo Morales or JOH, he’d freeze the count right now and take a 24 hour break.
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Will Giuliani reveal how a bunch of Chavez cronies laundered money at various Trump properties? Can he talk about how Samark Lopez, now sanctioned for drug trafficking and money laundering, was a member of Trump's Doral golf course?
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Please spend less time debating US policy towards Latin America in the Cold War and more time debating US policy towards Latin America in the 2020's. If you're reading this, it applies to you. Thanks.
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NYT front page article on Maduro's death squads. As I wrote last year, the number of civilians killed by security forces in the past three years under Maduro is greater than the number under the entire 17 year Pinochet dictatorship.
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Nicolas Maduro's approval rating in Colombia is a chart that never fails to amuse me. The country is unified on something.
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Point: The inviolability of embassies is an important concept in international relations. Political dissidents deserve options for asylum.
Counter-point: Latin America has a serious problem with corrupt and criminal politicians hiding in foreign embassies to escape justice.
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Berman indicted Nicolas Maduro and was investigating Juan Orlando Hernandez. What is Trump covering up that he feels the need to remove the attorney whose office is investigating the most corrupt leaders in the Western Hemisphere?
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72 hours later, Brazil, Mexico & Colombia refuse to recognize Maduro's fraudulent claim of victory. They have all called for the CNE to transparently publish the election data. For these countries/leaders to still be on the fence this long is good news.
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"What was the purpose of your trip?"
"Ending the dictatorship and restoring democracy with free elections."
"Great. Also, have you been to China in the past 14 days?"
Photo of Guaido going through migration at Caracas airport after arriving back in Venezuela
#Venezuela
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A regional South American currency is easier than everyone thinks:
Step 1) Brazil's Central Bank issues a digital coin that can be used across borders.
Step 2) Other countries choose to participate or not.
Step 3) Argentina will continue mismanaging its economy.
Easy, right?
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Juan Guaido belongs to a political party that identifies with “Socialist International.” He believes climate change is a serious threat. He’s pro-LGBT rights. And he’s opposed to Russian interference in his country.
It’s sort of a miracle that Trump supports this guy.
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Do we get to have the debate over whether Mexico is a "failed state" again? Because I have a bunch of 10 year old blog posts I can dig up, edit and republish as new content! As a writer, it's living the dream.
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"Alexa, which musical artist would be most ironic in defending a makeshift wall that an authoritarian government has set up to prevent food from reaching starving children?"
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In case it wasn't clear before today's attack in Mexico City, the CJNG is choosing bullets over hugs.
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I reference this article in professional settings multiple times per year. The number of Latin American cities apparently caught off guard and unprepared for their annual weather patterns is absurd.
Citen este tweet con su noticia favorita de El Chigüire Bipolar en estos hermosos 15 años
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Brazil is going to have about 3% null vote. That means that about 4 million Brazilians took the time to show up at the polls in the closest and most consequential election in a generation and marked their ballot to indicate, "both these guys are terrible." It's a statement.
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The front page of the local tabloid here in Colombia. I have no idea what's going on in that photo, but the headline is clear.
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Bourdain’s episodes on Colombia captured that country’s renewal. His episode on Nicaragua was respectful of the people and a kick in the face to the Ortega govt. He got both countries correct.
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Chile's vote counting process is amazingly efficient and accurate. But it isn't magic. It's what happens when a country dedicates the time, resources and attention to the process of elections that democracy deserves.
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The OAS resolution didn't pass due to absences and abstentions. But even if it had passed unanimously, it wouldn't have done anything. The OAS has big structural problems when it comes to the highest profile regional challenges.
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How often have two presidents facing impeachment in the same year due to allegations of corruption by foreign powers sat in the same room together? This might be a first in world history.
President
@realDonaldTrump
welcomed
@MaritoAbdo
, President of Paraguay, to the Oval Office!
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Asked for a prediction on Venezuela if Trump wins, I said that Trump would start with a Bolton-like maximum pressure campaign but likely flip towards a deal with Maduro within the first two years. It would be similar to Trump's North Korea policy from his first term.
El exasesor del Consejo de Seguridad Nacional de la Casa Blanca durante el gobierno de Trump, John Bolton, advierte: "Si Trump gana puede pactar con Maduro. Es un hombre fuerte que le fascina"
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For Padrino Lopez, the important part of that press conference was to show the military leadership united behind him. He controls the cards & decides what happens next. And he wants it to happen peacefully if possible. He's always frustratingly vague, but that was his key point.
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I don't understand how the Chinese spy balloon that flew over Colombia isn't a major news story. Maybe we need to mention that it took photos of Pablo Escobar's hippos. Then all the media will cover it.
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Numerous US online media headlines this morning: “AMLO won for lots of reasons not related to the US but my web editor is making me put ‘Trump’ in the headline and lead graf because it statistically leads to more clicks.”
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The Añez government was far less than totally democratic and put a lot of pressure on the MAS. The MAS chose to participate in elections in spite of imperfect conditions, negotiated the best conditions they could, and won big. It's another victory for participation over boycott.
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Just checked the early exit polls in Nicaragua and it appears there are still at least 150 political prisoners including seven presidential candidates Ortega was too afraid to compete against.
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Venezuela's ruling elite using tensions with Guayna to distract from internal problems.
Guatemala elites using Venezuela's stupid Guyana dispute to distract while they undermine democracy.
Peru elites undermining democracy & dumbly lucking out because nobody is paying attention
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My comments/predictions on Venezuela's election this weekend should be in your inbox.
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Yesterday, Trump said, "Something will be happening to Venezuela."
Trump has also said coronavirus is "going to sort of just disappear."
Unfortunately, Trump's Venezuela & coronavirus strategies are the same. He says things will magically get better, even as they get worse.
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Peru's current status:
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Hey, Venezuela has a fresh young leader who represents change. Find me the oldest, most problematic representative of the Cold War era US policy to undermine him. Preferably someone with experience being investigated by a special prosecutor. We need more of that these days.
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Bolsonaro is the biggest threat to Latin American democracy since Hugo Chavez. He is popularly elected with a strong mandate. He plans to replace civilians with military leaders in key positions and undermine the country’s institutions from the top down.
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In case you're feeling unproductive at work today, remember that some Russian cybersecurity expert was sent to a country that doesn’t have internet or electricity at the moment.
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In Bogota, Covid cases & deaths are near their highest levels. ICUs are 90% full.
This morning:
Restaurants are open.
Offices are open.
Gyms are open.
Public transportation is packed.
Schools are closed.
More than a year into the pandemic, this is a terrible policy failure
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Most Latin American presidents are taking the threat of coronavirus seriously. Unfortunately, the leaders of the two largest countries are the exceptions.
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Rumor has it that Nicolas Maduro, the leader of Venezuela's opposition, also gave a speech today....
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Any college going all-online should have an optional 1 credit in-person course called "Research in Legal Loopholes" in which students show up in person for a few minutes each week.
This is bad. ICE just told students here on student visas that if their school is going online-only this fall, the students must depart the United States and cannot remain through the fall semester.
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The Trump administration is using sanctions to defend the leadership of Venezuela's Tupamaros. I admit I did not have that on my 2020 bingo card.
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Re: US policy towards Venezuela.
Trying something new might fail.
The current strategy is failing.
Thank you for attending my TED talk.
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If the US can have enough vaccines for 300 million adults by the end of May, then we can have more than enough for a billion people by the end of the year, which is what is needed to vaccinate all of Latin America & the Caribbean. And that's exactly what the Biden admin should do
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Chile's covid cases are rising in spite of leading the region on vaccinations. Epidemiologists will need to look closely at the data to see whether this case rise indicates the Chinese vaccines that Chile has used are less effective against new variants. No clear answers yet.
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Putin doesn't need Maduro to hold on to power forever. Just long enough to execute the greatest bank robbery in history.
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Polls are closed in Venezuela. I have enough information to say with confidence that the opposition turned out more voters today but not enough data to give a specific number. Be doubtful of those sharing early exit polls showing huge margins of victory for either side.
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Maduro is likely to steal the election. Venezuelans are voting in huge numbers to try to force him to accept defeat. As I wrote back in February: "Oppositions don't defeat dictatorships by dropping out when the odds and rules don't favor them."
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It's not just that Venezuela has a new president in Juan Guaido. Venezuela's Armed Forces have a new commander-in-chief and the intel agencies have a new boss. The question now is whether they follow Guaido or do they commit a coup against him?
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"The president cancelled his trip to the Summit of the Americas because prosecutors seized new evidence related to his corruption." See, there's a press release many Latin American presidents could understand and empathize with.
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If any of the Central American migrant caravans makes it all the way to DC, invades the Capitol building and threatens to kill elected officials, I promise I'll change my opinion and admit they are a security threat.
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I know it's hard for Twitter pundits who demand instant gratification & analysis, but try to imagine a scenario where this week's Venezuela talks are the start of a 2 or 3 year process with an uncertain outcome rather than a single event where all the results are instantly known.
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It's not about more military or less military. It's about a strategic and appropriate use of the military balanced with civilian police, better prosecutors and an effective prison system. None of Mexico's political parties seem to get that.
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AMLO has stuck with budget austerity amid an economic downturn, increased the role of the military, attacked feminists and seriously backtracked on the environment. [Insert sarcastic comment about left-right political spectrum here]
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When the IMF tells you that you're being too austere, it's perhaps a sign to spend more.
The IMF calls on Mexico to implement short-term fiscal and monetary support to “limit the damage from the pandemic” and secure a faster economic recovery
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Maduro somehow paid off $300 million to Rosneft last quarter while people in Venezuela still go hungry. Anyone angry about IMF agreements in Argentina and Ecuador should probably add this "economic hitman" move by Russia to their list.
Rosneft said
#Venezuela
’s PDVSA reduced its principal debt owed to the Russian company to $800m in 3Q19 vs $1.1b prior. At that rate, PDVSA could finish paying off its Rosneft dues by 2Q20. More on
@TheTerminal
.
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If my count is correct, 16 out of the 28 people who are speaking on stage during the two day
@The_Dialogue
CAF conference are women. The rest of the DC think tank community will hopefully take note that this is possible and creates a better & more inclusive event.
#Di
álogoCAF2019
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This is fantastic. I'm very happy that Lula is on board with demanding Venezuela release all the election results transparently.
Readout of
@POTUS
Call with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil:
"The two leaders agreed on the need for immediate release of full, transparent, and detailed voting data at the polling station level by the Venezuelan electoral authorities."
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Lula has always wanted a Nobel Peace Prize. The Venezuela election crisis next door has given him the perfect opportunity to win one. Can he live up to the moment and deliver? Or do past political alliances and a desire to appear "anti-imperialist" hold him back?
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My prediction for Bolivia's next elected president is that he or she will be forced out of office before their term is up.
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This is a solid op-ed about the position the US Democratic Party should take in regards to Venezuela
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Francisco Sagasti was the ideal interim president. He understood the moment and maintained stability amid a difficult and rocky election cycle. He never tried to use his position for personal gain or hold on to power a day longer than necessary. It was great.
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Headline: Will 2024 be the year that Uruguay becomes the hotspot of Latin American political risk capturing every analyst's attention?
Article: No.
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If at any point in recent decades you've seen the US military bombing some country and wished they would try sending lots of food and aid instead, today you sort of got your wish.
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A short cyclical story: A candidate runs for election every few years, getting slightly closer every time against increasingly absurd opponents but falling just short. Her own losses make her bitter, so she attacks the political system, which is why a majority vote against her.
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Reasons I care about Venezuela:
1) Massive suffering by population
2) Major human rights abuses by Maduro & security forces
3) Threat of criminal-controlled state
...
87) Can the Washington Nationals get a better catcher out of the local farm system?
88) Hezbollah ties to Maduro
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