James Barnett
@jh_barnett
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Researching African conflict (Nigeria, Sahel & Horn), usually in the field | Fellow @HudsonInstitute @CDDWestAfrica | PhD-ing @Politics_Oxford | views my own
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Joined July 2016
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My latest study for
@HudsonInstitute
fills the gap in our understanding of terrorist expansion in West Africa by examining the underreported movements of Nigerian jihadis toward Benin
Coauthored w/ Dr. Murtala Rufa'i and based on extensive fieldwork
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In northwestern Nigeria, vigilantes fight bandits with homemade guns called wagila that shoot used battery cartridges. Most shoot a few cartridges (like first photo)
Just saw a wagila cannon that mounts on a truck and shoots 18 rounds
Something new everyday…
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In August I traveled into the Zamfara forests for a rare interview with an army of bandits
For
@newlinesmag
I wrote about my bizarre day w/ these insurgents, who are waging a brutal war in which I'm not sure even they know what they ultimately hope to win
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I've seen some poorly informed speculation on here that ECOWAS is a proxy for France and the US and is only taking a hard line on the Niger coup at their behest (for "uranium," or w/e)
A quick thread on why ECOWAS leaders have their own reasons to want to reverse this coup
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Stuff like this is happening every week in the northwest, often multiple times a week. The victims are almost exclusively Muslim, yet many people insist Nigeria’s problem is a religious conflict. The truth is perhaps harder to digest: a nationwide collapse of order
BBC Hausa reports that terrorists have killed 54 people, all grown-up males, in Kadawa village of Zamfara last night. Residents said there are no enough people left in the village to bury the dead so they're presently being conveyed to Zurmi, the local government HQ, for funeral.
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Got off the phone with a friend in Yenagoa. What they described is terrifying: Bodies washing up, cars and houses submerged, no fuel, looting, East-West road turned into a raging river. And no clear govt plan yet for IDPs, relief etc.
Please pray and help those whom you can
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Good news that Nigeria has opened a PTSD centre for members of the Armed Forces. I hope it gets the resources it needs
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I’m thrilled to share, w/
@AbdulFagge
and Dr. Murtala Rufa’i, one of the most timely and deeply researched analyses we’ve conducted
The most detailed assessment to date of the complex relationship b/w Nigeria’s deadly bandits and “Boko Haram”
For
@CTCWP
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Tinubu says the coup poses grave risks to Nigerian security (quite valid, as I've noted: )
But I also think he wants to position himself again as a champion of democracy (esp. after messy election) and show he can unleash Nigeria's regional potential
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All the talk from politicians about finishing the bandits, “the criminals are fleeing” etc. was laughable. Ado Aleru was never a hard man to find. He’s not some thief, but a brutal warlord—and a savvy one. And those people get rewarded in this game, much as govt claims otherwise
Finally, Notorious Bandits kingpin Ado Aleru turbaned as Sarkin Fulani (The King of Fulani) of Yandoton Daji Emirate in Zamfara State. It took place around 3:30pm today Saturday 16, July 2022.
Pictures from the venue of the turbaning ceremony.
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Starting with President Tinubu, the driving force of the ECOWAS response
Tinubu is personally averse to military rule. He was close to MKO Abiola and jumpstarted his political career in the 90s, agitating against Gen. Abacha's regime from exile...
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Followed this lovely lady from Lagos to London. Excited to see where we go next.
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Some reports suggest that Prigozhin was on the way to see Putin in his Valday residence
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Never again will I pay a N50 oyibo surcharge for an apple at Bariga market
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For the coastal states, players like Benin and Togo and perhaps even Ghana (?) have reason to fear the "coup contagion" given their own volatile histories of putsches
Those presidents know their own security sectors are disgruntled and...
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I see we’ve progressed from “Westerners need to refrain from commenting on the conflict and listen to Ethiopian voices” to “Yippee Ki Yay, [entire ethnic group] can eat dirt”
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Regarding Western powers: I'll let those who know France better comment on its strategy rn, but I know what Nigerian officials think of French policy in West Africa, and I'm pretty confident Tinubu didn't take his cues from Macron...
As for US policy...
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under increasing strain from jihadists in the north, so they fear a repeat of Guinea, Mali, BF, and now Niger
It's in those leaders' interests to roll back the "coup corridor" or what have you, lest others get ideas (look at SL... 👇)
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ECOWAS leaders have strong reasons of their own for wanting to do whatever it takes to roll back the coup in Niger, for better or worse...
/fin
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Some Nigerians are speculating he's "wagging the dog," trying to distract the public from the cost-of-living crisis, NLC strike, election tribunal etc.
Who knows, but I think this is a silly way to do it. Niger would not be Gambia 2017 and...
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I get the sense from some that there is an awareness in the security sector of the risks, maybe even an initial aversion from some elements (e.g., look at DHQ leak today...)
So it's no slam dunk option for BAT. I think it's personal, political, and genuine nat sec concerns
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@MatthewTPage
My first tip was going to be "hide your cash at police checkpoints" but my experience the past few weeks has been that they'll gladly give you their account details so you can make transfer "at your convenience"
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In Las Anod, an armed uprising aims to break away from the breakaway state of Somaliland
I traveled there and wrote about the fight for clan autonomy, the challenges of that vision, and what Somalia’s newest war means for a generation inured to conflict
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I'm not positioned to speak for USG, but I think the situation is fluid and various officials are prob still weighing the benefits and risks of any ECOWAS intervention. They certainly show no sign of being the driving force behind ECOWAS's policy
In short...
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It aligns w/ that of ECOWAS, particularly in not calling this a coup yet, for reasons I note here:
Except the US hasn't clearly outlined what its position would be on a regional intervention and what tangible support, if any, it would lend
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A few photos, in addition to the ones in the article, from my time in and around Las Anod
I’ve been to a few war zones before but never seen anything quite like this
In Las Anod, an armed uprising aims to break away from the breakaway state of Somaliland
I traveled there and wrote about the fight for clan autonomy, the challenges of that vision, and what Somalia’s newest war means for a generation inured to conflict
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@moreati
@DMOberhaus
I think it’s just a used battery, sometimes bundled with other metal materials into a grapeshot-like round. The vigilantes I interview all use the term “cartridge” so I repeated it, realize now it may be unclear
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Woke up this morning to learn, to my pleasant surprise, that I am a member of the nefarious British media elite (and, by extension, a TPLF agent)
Shame I didn’t learn of this before Brexit, as I would’ve preferred to draw my first paycheck back when the pound was a bit stronger
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I once saw Kadyrov’s guys at a SOF competition in Jordan
On the hostage drill, they shot every target, grabbed the “hostage” (a flour sack), exited house in record time, then threw the “hostage” onto the getaway truck so hard it exploded and they lost points
They cheered anyway
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Adding this by
@Murtalaibin
, who summarizes it more succinctly than I
Why would anyone assume that Nigeria will take action because of American or French influence?
It clearly shows a lack of knowledge about Nigeria's history. Lastly, Nigeria and France have a frosty relationship that dates back to the Civil War
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I’m hopeful for this. It’s much preferable to a military intervention, which could end badly for everyone — including the junta, i think, which is where there may be room for some compromise (hope i’m not being naive)
ECOWAS delegation led by General Abdulsalami Abubakar (Rtd), Sultan of Sokoto, Alhaji Muhammad Sa'ad Abubakar and President of ECOWAS Commission, H.E. Omar Alieu Touray, arrive in Niamey, Niger Republic, for talks with coup leaders
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ISWAP has claimed credit for this attack, framing it as part of the just announced global campaign to target Christians and Jews “wherever you find them.” Seems ISWAP activated Nasarawa cell(s) for this op (recall Keffi explosion in May 2023)
Pray security forces do the needful
Nigerian Police Confirm Four Killed As Gunmen Invade Supermarket In Nasarawa | Sahara Reporters
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Nimeandika makala (kwa kiingereza) kuhusu tishio la ugaidi nchini
#Tanzania
na Mozambique. Nakaribisha maona yako
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Sharing some spectacular cattle photos to bless your timeline
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In this report,
@HassanIdayat
and I trace the origins and evolution of banditry in Nigeria, a crisis that is now claiming more lives than “Boko Haram”
This research involved interviews with key actors across NW Nigeria. We hope it helps improve understanding of this crisis
The Centre for Democracy and Development CDD
@cddwestafrica
has released a new report on "Northwest Nigeria’s Bandit Problem: Explaining the conflict drivers"
Read the Full report here:
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If half of this is true, it’s a serious indictment of US and French competence alike when it comes to West Africa
From a solid reporting team
@WSJ
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I’m very excited to announce the release of my report with
@HudsonInstitute
that examines the fascinating and evolving ideological dimension of China-Africa relations
A thread on my key findings, which you can also read in the executive summary /12
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My long-form dispatch from Lviv Oblast, which is mobilizing its youths for war, bracing for more missile attacks, and somehow still providing enough espresso to sustain the army of journalists that have come to town
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I'm less optimistic than I was yesterday, but I think there remains a chance for a compromise that no one will love but would avert a regional war no one should want
Not sure anyone will listen, but my thoughts here for
@HudsonInstitute
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I try to do the "detached foreign observer" stuff but it's BS. I interview survivors of one massacre this week but who cares bc then there's another massacre, and then another next week, and the TV and social media is just APC this, PDP that, blame Fulani, blame Igbo, fake news
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Happy Easter to all my brothers and sisters who celebrate!
I was received into full communion with the Catholic Church last night, and it feels pretty great (and not just because the in-laws are happy)
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I was interviewed by BBC about the regional ramifications of the coup in Niger
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Bears repeating that one of the biggest impediments to curbing banditry has been the profiling of herders as bandits, by security forces but especially by vigilantes. Bandits recruit aggrieved herders who’ve suffered harassment, extortion, or violence b/c of ethnic profiling
CLARIFICATION: Kaduna State Police authorities have clarified that the arrested people in a video which went viral on social media over the weekend, were herders mistaken for bandits who attacked Kakura community in Chikun LGA of Kaduna State. Leadership Newspaper reports
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Next Wednesday I’ll be giving a hybrid lecture
@IADS_NG
about classifying armed actors in NW Nigeria. DM me for details
If you’re not interested in the analysis then come for the anecdotes from my interviews w/ bandits, who were clearly in the market for a photographer
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A brief personal update: While my Fulbright ends in mid-November, I’ll be returning to Nigeria in the new year and continuing my research as a fellow with
@CDDWestAfrica
I’m very grateful to
@HassanIdayat
and the team for the opportunity
So… more amala for me!
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My quick take on the coup in Niger for
@HudsonInstitute
focused on explaining why military regimes don't fight terrorists very effectively and why this is bad news for neighboring states, particularly Benin and Nigeria
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MA thesis submitted, I am one step closer to becoming a veritable Master of War (studies)
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The Nigerian government recently deployed troops & imposed harsh measures in the northwest in an effort to destroy powerful bandit gangs
Unfortunately, the bandits are adapting in novel and deadly ways
I explain with Dr Murtala Rufai in
@WarOnTheRocks
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A direct attack on the Abuja-Kaduna line, bandits delivering ultimatums in Batsari, last week a massacre in Bukkuyum…
Many of us tried to be optimistic about military/containment measures taken late last year but clear that the bandits are deadly a threat as ever
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I've been very excited for this documentary to come out.
@ankaboy
and his team put a tremendous amount of work into it, and I think it will help a lot of people understand this messy conflict
(Also, I'm taking credit for coining the phrase "bandit warlords." Have at it)
#BBCAfricaEye
meets The Bandit Warlords of Zamfara 🇳🇬
Monday 25th July.
#ZamfaraBandits
📽️ Subscribe to our YouTube channel now so you don’t miss it:
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An illuminating piece on the stealthy expansion of JNIM into western Mali and its implications for Senegal and Mauritania in
@HudsonInstitute
's journal, Current Trends in Islamist Ideology
Proud to publish these deep dives from experts in the field
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A thread:
One of the biggest questions surrounding Nigeria’s bandit crisis has been the role of jihadis. Are BH/ISWAP/Ansaru supporting or recruiting bandits?
After months of fieldwork and exclusive interviews w/ bandits and senior jihadi defectors, we shed light on this... 1/
I’m thrilled to share, w/
@AbdulFagge
and Dr. Murtala Rufa’i, one of the most timely and deeply researched analyses we’ve conducted
The most detailed assessment to date of the complex relationship b/w Nigeria’s deadly bandits and “Boko Haram”
For
@CTCWP
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This is a fascinating article by
@abdsayedd
and
@AmiraJadoon
on the overlooked role that the ultra-sectarian group Lashkar-e-Janghvi has played in shaping the trajectory of jihadism in Af-Pak over the past 30 years
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Is Boko Haram attacking Niger state, a mere 2-hour drive from Abuja, as the governor claims?
I went there and found a situation that is quite complex--and very concerning
Thanks to folks
@HumAngle
esp.
@Murtalaibin
for publishing my initial findings
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I have two essays out this week for those interested:
1) The evolution of Salafi-jihadism in East Africa, incl. a look at some recent developments in Kenya and Ethiopia, for the summer volume of Current Trends in Islamist Ideology via
@HudsonInstitute
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The standby force doesn’t really exist on its own. It would take time to mobilize
I don’t think this invalidates previous claims about prioritizing diplomacy. ECOWAS claiming military option still on the table, but this is not an order for an intervention today
BREAKING: West African countries say they are deploying "the ECOWAS standby force to restore constitutional order in the republic of Niger"
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Nigeria loses an astonishing amount of its oil to theft and insecurity
In 2022, I traveled around the Niger Delta and interviewed those involved in the big business of oil bunkering--from pirates to politicians--to understand its consequences
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Oyinbo goes to friend's home state for family celebration, is given agbada, ends up giving awkward interview to local news. Many such cases
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While the government’s information blackout produced a lot of uncertainty regarding reported atrocities in Tigray, there was never anyway they could hide everything, forever
The evidence is starting to pile up, and it confirms many of the worst fears
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Not really what I was saying, but ok
Breaking News:
James Barnett
@jh_barnett
, a Researcher with Hudson Institute, confirms that majority of the
#Alshabaab
leaders are from the Isaaq clan “Somaliland!”
We have been telling the world for the past 15 years that AS is a product of Somaliland intended to keep
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Wrapping up an intense research trip with some Benue pounded yam, the real purpose of my travels
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Quick life update: I’ve just arrived in Lagos, where I’ll be spending the rest of the year on a Fulbright. Aside from the jet lag, I’m very excited to be here
View from my hotel in VI. Moving onto the lovely UNILAG campus in a week. More soon
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I'm 29 years old. I've held multiple five-figure research fellowships. I wake up at 5:00 AM, have a panic attack, and go back to bed. I spend an hour each morning clearing my inbox of newsletters I subscribe to. I spend 25% of my income on books I don't read
This is my routine
I'm 30 years old.
And I run a $200M portfolio of businesses.
This is my daily routine:
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One of the many tragic consequences of insecurity in Nigeria, school closures and the attendant learning gap, expanding to yet more states
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For
@HooverInst
I wrote about Boko Haram/ISWAP, examining evolutions within the jihadist camp and the factors that fuel a strategic stalemate b/w the insurgents and Nigerian govt
Draws on recent fieldwork in Borno*
*Updated as of two weeks ago
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These are good figures to lead this, I think. No better person to tell a junta how much military rule can muck up an army than Abdulsalami Abubakar
PMB might be another to pull out down the line if need be
Nigerian retired general and former military head of state Abdulsalami Abubakar will lead Ecowas negotiating mission with Niger junta alongside the Sultan of Sokoto. They are expected in Niamey tomorrow
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A bit late sharing this news because uhhh more important stuff has been happening, but I’m happy to announce that I’ll be joining
@HudsonInstitute
as a research fellow (non-resident) to study a variety of political and security issues in Africa
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Superb work by
@theprincelyx
for
@HumAngle_
investigating oil bunkering in the Delta and its immense environmental and health impacts
What stands out to me is how, like elsewhere in NG, gangsters fill the role of the state for many neglected communities
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Thanks to
@ankaboy
for organizing this space for Zamfarans to discuss their perspectives on insecurity
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The responses to this interview have essentially been of two sorts:
1) The junta is gaslighting and ignoring, at its own peril, the tangible CT progress the US helped provide
2) Washington misread the Niger govt's needs and condescended to them
Imho both are probably true
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In a
@washingtonpost
interview, Niger’s PM Ali Zeine detailed the extent of Niger’s frustrations with the United States and the level of disconnect between the two countries as they negotiated over the U.S. security presence, which is set to draw down in coming months
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Never done one of those “my best writing of the year” posts, but it’s not every year I have a story like this
Grateful to
@newlinesmag
for commissioning this frontline dispatch, and for including it in their year-end highlights
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Appreciate the shoutout sir, though there are some great local journalists to follow on insecurity in the northwest.
@ankaboy
@Abdulfagge
@KunleAdebajo
@jaymb000
have all done important work here
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I admittedly haven’t followed Yemen closely in a while, but this all strikes me as correct: Designating the Houthis would exacerbate the humanitarian crisis and probably push them further into Iran’s orbit
What am I missing?
THREAD: As chatter around a U.S. designation of the Huthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation grows, I'm re-upping this
@CrisisGroup
commentary from October.
[1/8]
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My
@ForeignPolicy
dispatch on the crisis in northwestern Nigeria, where “bandits” are waging ruthless attacks on civilians and military alike
One question local officials are asking, but few have clear answers to: What are their links to jihadists?
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At the checkpoint where I always get stopped for a bribe except this time my gf w/ me and she straight up gives a counteroffer
Like, Oh, you say being Naija police is tough? Have you tried being a Naija woman? In this economy? 500 Naira please
Cop was speechless, let us through
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A bit late sharing this, but this
@simonallison
obit of Mugabe is brilliant. A fair and brutal assessment of an enigmatic autocrat and his tragic legacy. Reminds me of the Miami Herald's piece on Castro's death.
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When I went to Las Anod in late June, SSC leaders were bullish and I was more skeptical. I thought they ultimately had upper hand but expected it could take many months, possibly issues w/ FGS or PL before any victory over SL
But they correctly estimated SL's weaknesses it seems
SSC forces in Yagori, some 70kms west of Lasanod. The Somaliland army is driven out of all Dhulbahante inhabited locations, it seems. Many vehicles and weapons have been taken from the Somaliland army.
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For
@HudsonInstitute
I wrote about the paradox of ISWAP’s Ramadan campaign
The group is an increasingly important IS affiliate given high # of attacks and growing reach, but its violence rarely makes headlines w/in Nigeria as insecurity of all types grows
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A random point that's neither fully here nor there, but Abuja is essentially equidistant from Khartoum and Dakar. I often fall into the trap of siloing "West" and "East" Africa, but it's worth looking at a map in detail every now and then (or reading a history book) to remember
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On a lighter note: I am on a TRAIN and there are COWS outside and this is all very exciting because I am actually six years old
Anyhow, enjoy the beauty of north-central Nigeria
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My work in NW Nigeria really wouldn't be possible w/o great friends and colleagues especially
@HassanIdayat
and the
@CDDWestAfrica
team
Also ofc Dr. Rufa'i (not on Twitter, but keep an eye out for his/our work) &
@jaymb000
@ankaboy
@Abdulfagge
among others
In August I traveled into the Zamfara forests for a rare interview with an army of bandits
For
@newlinesmag
I wrote about my bizarre day w/ these insurgents, who are waging a brutal war in which I'm not sure even they know what they ultimately hope to win
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In all seriousness, to me this is just like any other fun epithet I’ve earned from social media trolls
But it’s a sad reflection of the environment in Ethiopia, and it affects Ethiopian journalists and analysts far, far more in possibly dangerous ways
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I’m a (mostly) proud American, but as of today, I have both a Nigerian residency card *and* a membership card to the University of Lagos Senior Staff (beer drinking) Club
I think this is the closest to dual citizenship I’ll ever get
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My report for
@HudsonInstitute
examines the successes and setbacks in Somalia's offensive against al-Shabaab since 2022. I argue CT and stabilization are fundamentally political challenges in Somalia.
Based on recent fieldwork in four states of Somalia
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To be clear to anyone not aware, it's not just one state but much of Nigeria that's been roiled by the floods of late. From north to central to south, this flooding has upended over a million lives
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More upsetting news from Kogi last night. That state has been experiencing a serious upsurge in attacks and abductions of late. It seems Kogi is both incubator, transit point, and refuge for militants and criminals of various stripes
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Happy to be quoted alongside
@VincentFoucher
in
@IjaniIjasini
's expose on extortion at checkpoints in NE Nigeria for
@HumAngle_
A long and thorough investigation into a deep-rooted problem
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Details in this
@daily_trust
report on the current situation in Damari, a village that Ansaru had protected and seemingly gained some legitimacy from the local population, only to be pushed out by local bandits
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That ECOWAS delegates got the positive reception they did today is very welcome progress. Now come the tough negotiations…
Niger held a relatively high-turnout election as recently as 2021. There is no technical reason they would need three years to prepare for polls
Briefing by Nigerien Junta leader
> it's open for dialogue
> transition period "would not go beyond three years"
> Intervention will not be a walk in the park
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It’s not goodbye since I’ll be back in 🇳🇬 in the new year, but yesterday was my last day as a Fulbrighter at UNILAG. It’s been an amazing nine months thanks to some amazing people
Some random pics from this week since I don’t want to scroll through camera roll to get the best
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“Russian hostage rescue at it’s finest,” one of the American contractors standing next to me remarked
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Chinese state-owned firms pull out of Abuja-Kaduna-Kano pipeline project over massive inflation of contract costs
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The BH/JAS network in NW Nigeria is diffuse and sub-components have begun moving further afield--I've heard reports some leaving Niger/Kaduna axis to head as far away as Taraba
But Shiroro LGA in Niger seems to continue to be a hub of their activity, as it's been since 2019/2020
Nigerian Troops Kills 2 Wanted Boko Haram Commanders Abu Ubaida, Mallam Yusuf Abba In Shiroro LGA
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Quick tangential rant, but Russian troll factories and clearly fake news aside, there’s also a trend of of reframing everything bad as “disinformation”
I’ve noticed too many donors, analysts etc now reframe all jihadist propaganda in Africa as a “disinfo” problem
Except…
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I remain unconvinced that Russian disinformation has the causal impact most attribute to it on the Continent.
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I spoke w/ some contacts from Birnin Gwari area about the videos of Ansaru’s Sallah celebrations. They say Ansaru has made real progress recruiting in the last six months, winning hearts & minds thru charity/aid
But, in contrast to the original Ansaru of 2011-12…
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Dogo Gide, the bandit-terrorist whose gang (along w/ others) shot down a helicopter yesterday, has collaborated w/ jihadists. But it's unclear if that has made his gang deadlier
Worth considering what we know abt the bandit-jihadist nexus in NW Nigeria and bandits' TTPs...
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Nigeria’s Air Force spokesperson said the helicopter was “discovered to have crashed” without stating why, but HumAngle learnt terrorists operating in the region shot it down.
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