Jeremy Hughes
@jeremybhughes
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Republican Strategist - November Inc
Washington, DC
Joined March 2009
Nevada News - We now have the Clark Co mail file posted. With mail and EV counted: .Statewide First Day 2020: D+40,000 .Statewide First Day 2024: D+1,721.
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šØRepublicans have taken the statewide voter registration advantage in Nevada šØ. Current SOS Data: .GOP - 617,204.DEM - 616,863.
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NV News: I just pulled the new statewide voter file and Republicans now trail Dems by only 15,831 in registrations. This is a gain of over 3,100 in 17 days. November 2020 the gap stood at over 86,000.
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Nevada: Low Propensity Voters are getting off the couch and voting early. GOP 2 of 4 voters - 25.3% Turnout.DEM 2 of 4 voters - 20.9% Turnout. GOP 1 of 4 voters - 23.6% Turnout.DEM 1 of 4 voters - 18.6% Turnout. GOP 0 of 4 voters - 17.8% Turnout.DEM 0 of 4 voters - 13.9% Turnout.
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PREDICTION: Republicans will overtake Democrats today and lead statewide in mail & early voting in Nevada. Iām not sure this has ever happened in a Presidential, @RalstonReports?.
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The fact is you could actually do a zoom with 190 countries. I mean youād have to contact sales, but thatās a minor inconvenience for the planet.
To all those complaining about world leaders flying to attend a mtg on climate change, youāre not saying anything original. Fact is, ya canāt do a zoom call with 190 countries, and face to face talks move the needle the most.
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Good Morning Nevada! . For the first time since December 2007, the Democrats voter registration is under 10,000 statewide. Current Registration: D+ 9,523. It should go under 9,000 by the end of Wednesday.
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Republicans still hold a statewide lead of 5,888 despite more mail ballots being dropped in Clark. At this point in 2020 it was Democrats with a lead of 47,000 votes. We have a nearly 53,000 vote swing.
~14,000 more Clark county mail ballots processed per @JohnRSamuelsen . NEVADA statewide -> . Total mail ballots returned: 154,943 (D+12).Total early ballots cast: 104,729 (R+24). š“ Republican 101,178 votes (39%).šµ Democratic 95,290 votes (37%).āŖļø Other 63,204 votes (24%).
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Republican registrations are surging in Nevada. Statewide gap. Current ā D+ 1.87%.Last Month ā D+ 2.14%. To compare. Election Day 2022 ā D+ 2.82%.Election Day 2020 ā D+ 4.80%.
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If Trump is really leading with Independent votes by 7% in Nevada then the race is over. Trump wins Nevada.
.@FabrizioWard /Impact Research/@AARP Nevada 2024 Presidential Election Poll:. Head-to-Head.š“ Donald Trump 49% (+2).šµ Kamala Harris 47%. Full Field.š“ Donald Trump 47% (+1).šµ Kamala Harris 46%. October 8-15, 2024.600 likely voters.Margin of error: +/-4%.
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@Josh_Finestone I'm not sure folks wrapped their brains around how the voter reg gap shrinking was going to play out. If they didn't. they will now.
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It's actually D+1675 if I take out the ballots they need to be cured, but I'll give them those.
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Merrick, itās Joe, I have information that will lead to the arrest of Hillary Clinton
Hillary should challenge Joe at the convention.
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I went and looked at October 2020 and October 2022. Today in Clark County, Republicans netted more registrations (so far +693) than Democrats did in any day during those months.
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@McCourt83 @RalstonReports Puff puff.
Nevada šļøš²š°.Early + mail voting update.Total mail ballots returned: 140,627 (šµ D+12).Total early ballots cast: 104,729 (š“ R+24). š“ Republican 39.5% | 96,858 votes.šµ Democratic 36.3% | 88,983 votes.āŖļø Other 24.3% | 59,515 votes.
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Democrat NV Statewide Voter Registration advantage down to 8,755.
Good Morning Nevada! . For the first time since December 2007, the Democrats voter registration is under 10,000 statewide. Current Registration: D+ 9,523. It should go under 9,000 by the end of Wednesday.
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Just a thought as NV voting is about to begin. For the first time since 2004, more Republicans will vote in the presidential election than Democrats. Kamala will have to win Nonpartisans by at least 3% to win the state.
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Clark County, NV which has same day registration has netted 509 Republicans today. Statewide registration is definitely getting under 15,000.
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Too be fair, some people leave Vegas in a lot worse shape.
NEW from me: Joe Biden Came to Vegas to Energize Latinos. He Left With COVID and Calls to Step Aside. via @VanityFair.
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Additionally, that 9,200 is as of yesterday. Republicans have netted 540 in Clark County today alone. So the number more likely is under 8,500 right now.
2020: 86,000 Dem voter reg advantage . 2024: 9,200 Dem voter reg advantage.
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Nevada Statewide Voter Registration Update: . October 1: D+ 18,953.October 25: D+ 11,294.
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New SOS update shows that Rs have taken the lead statewide in Nevada, by 8,000 votes or 3 percent. The Clark firewall is only 4,000 votes, not nearly enough to head off rural losses. I'll update the blog soon, but here are the numbers:.
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New SOS update shows that Rs have taken the lead statewide in Nevada, by 8,000 votes or 3 percent. The Clark firewall is only 4,000 votes, not nearly enough to head off rural losses. I'll update the blog soon, but here are the numbers:.
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As you may have seen, I do regularish data updates on Nevada early voting. It goes to a small list of insiders and press. If youād like to get added to the list you can sign up on my fancy google form.
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Down goes the Clark firewall
The early voting blog is updated!. Out: Clark D firewall. In: Rural R firewall. It's real: 16,500 votes because of massive landslides so far and higher than urban turnout percentage. Dems need more mail, lots of indies, or big trouble in NV.
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Nevada Voter Reg News. Clark County did a voter roll cleanup and Republicans gained 4,458 voters, Dems advantage is now 8.57% down from 8.69% this morning. Statewide now the Dems advantage is down to 44,813 and 2.36% (from 2.55%).
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Very uneducated spin here. Dems didnāt have a registration problem in 2020 under the same rules.
Updated Clark County, NV voter registration. New since last week: 5,818.Dem: 1,326 (22.8%).Rep: 2,264 (38.9%).Other: 2,228 (38.3%). Reps adding more registered voters makes sense given they are also turning out more for early in-person. Can't same-day register with mail.
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If only that mean Larry Hogan would just step aside and give her the Senate seat, then history could be made
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My math was pretty good when we bet Sisolak :).
Republicansā math is just as bad as it was in 2022 when they claimed Adam Laxalt was going to beat Cortez Masto. The reality is Democrats are outpacing Republicans in turnout - both in Clark and Statewide. ā¤µļø. Weekend early in-person + mail turnout: 68,424 (D) and 67,169 (R).
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I spy Ron Desantis on the front row of the Kentucky game with Joe and Kelly Craft.
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Nevada finalized its Same Day Registration report for the 2024 election. Additions by party:. GOP - 10,566 (38.4%).Dems - 7,870 (28.6%).NPs - 9,052. The nearly 10% spread for Republicans is larger than we saw in '22 (GOP +2%) & '20 (GOP +1%). The GOP has never lost SDR in NV.
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PREDICTION: Republicans will overtake Democrats today and lead statewide in mail & early voting in Nevada. Iām not sure this has ever happened in a Presidential, @RalstonReports?.
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The time I went to the bathroom and OJ took my seat. I still owe OJ $100 from a bet on that game. Looks like I survived.
OJ Simpson, DEAD.
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2020: 86,000 Dem voter reg advantage . 2024: 9,200 Dem voter reg advantage.
Latest voter registration data from the secretary of state's office: .Nonpartisans: 33.22 percent.Democrats: 29.97 percent.Republicans: 29.52 percent
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Could totally be wrong, weāll know shortly, but I think NOTC has a real chance of winning the GOP Primary in NV.
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Before everyone goes crazy, there is always a mail backlog. Always.
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Apparently we changed the definition of the word "only".
CNN finds early voters in Nevada are only Trump +6.
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Ryan is a good guy, smart, and has connections to put together and run a real race. This district has moved towards the GOP by 2% in registration since Naft won it 53-47 against an opponent with no money.
Hearing Ryan Hamilton, recently with @VegasStronger1 and a veteran of many Nevada political races, is going to run for Clark County Commission, District A. His campaign will focus on homelessness and quality of life issues.
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Since this Thursday tweet Republicans have netted another 483 in Clark. By the time we get to election day we might be under 14,000.
NV News: I just pulled the new statewide voter file and Republicans now trail Dems by only 15,831 in registrations. This is a gain of over 3,100 in 17 days. November 2020 the gap stood at over 86,000.
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No offense, but he modeled in electorate at D+2. That's just laughable.
Nevada Public Opinion Pulse poll by @NoblePredictive shows the U.S. Senate race here with the closest margin of the entire campaign, with @RosenforNevada just two points ahead of @CaptainSamBrown. MOE=+/- 4 points. MORE:
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This tweet didnāt get much attention. Just reminding yāall of it now.
Just a thought as NV voting is about to begin. For the first time since 2004, more Republicans will vote in the presidential election than Democrats. Kamala will have to win Nonpartisans by at least 3% to win the state.
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Dems and Republicans both had 5 races without a major party opponent. In the other 32 races, Republicans won 51% of the vote, but only won 10 races (31% of the races).
I don't have precinct data for the 2024 presidential race so I can't say for sure, but Nevada Assembly Republicans likely turned in a stronger performance than Trump statewide, winning a collection of 32 contested seats by 1.88% and adjusting for the statewide margin, about 5%.
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We canāt flip the state senate. Stop getting peopleās hopes up.
Rs trail Ds by <3K voters in heavily Dem Clark County. That's the recipe for a R blowout at the top of the ticket and in legislative races. Rs should be looking to see if they can steal a state Senate seat that both sides previously thought was safely D.
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Nevada News:. The final voter purge before the election sees Republicans net 11,019 on the Dems in Clark County. Clark went from D +7.42% to D +7.17%. Dems statewide lead goes from 29k to 18k (pending the other 16 counties providing updates).
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None of this is true. This person is not a strategist or a scientist, they are an ostrich.
@Brixwoof @ForecasterEnten Kerry led Bush until he lost. Romney led Obama until he lost. Clinton was 10+ pts up in states she lost to Trump. When us political scientists say they are not predictive, we mean it. Youād think Harry would know that.
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Update, I was not wrong.
Could totally be wrong, weāll know shortly, but I think NOTC has a real chance of winning the GOP Primary in NV.
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As a reminder, I wrote this last week.
Look at those indies! They control this election, folks.
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This was some take. I guess @JohnJHarwood was telling on himself.
people who insist Biden will pardon Hunter after specifically ruling it out are telling on themselves. they can't imagine someone acting on principle and keeping his word.
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$14m is not the largest ad buy in Nevada history. Catherine Cortez Masto spent over $26m on TV.
SCOOP: Sen. Jacky Rosen is making a $14 million ad buy ā the largest in Nevada history ā after Cook Political Report moved the Democrat's closely watched Senate race to a toss-up.
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*beat. but you get the point. I'm good at math not spelling, I'll leave that to the comms guy.
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Reminder that the same Dem dark money group that fund this entity, The Hopewell Fund, also funds the Nevada Current.
Excellent reporting by @eric_neugeboren on a Democratic dark money group that has put millions into Nevada. Eye-opening.
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Lots of good info here.
Who doesn't love a little Nevada voter frequency in the afternoon?. The new Clark County voter registration file has been posted, and we can match 99.94% of all ballots to the proper voter history. Same-day registrations were added, and Republicans in Clark gained a net of 3,147
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Amazing candidate recruitment by @SteveYeagerNV. Between this candidate for an open assembly seat and having a former lobbyist for Saudi Arabia running for an open seat on the county commission, it has been amateur hour with the @nvdems.
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Statewide: Republicans trail by 1.57%.2022 EDAY: Republicans trail by 2.82%.2020 EDAY: Republicans trail by 4.80%. That is some trend line.
Latest voter registration stats for Nevada are out. Number of Nonpartisans increased by 0.97 percent, Republicans increased by 0.7 percent and Democrats increased by 0.46 percent.
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Republicansā math is just as bad as it was in 2022 when they claimed Adam Laxalt was going to beat Cortez Masto. The reality is Democrats are outpacing Republicans in turnout - both in Clark and Statewide. ā¤µļø. Weekend early in-person + mail turnout: 68,424 (D) and 67,169 (R).
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A reminder, it was this or Make Pope. Iāll take Mark Pope everyday and twice on Sundays compared to this clown show.
John Calipari is expected to bring all his stable of assistants from UK to Arkansas, sources told CBS Sports. Assistants are: Orlando Antigua, Chin Coleman, Chuck Martin. Special assistant: Bruiser Flint. Calipari will also bring on his son, Brad, in a player development role.
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If it's true that NV is her best swing states then that's a very, very, very, very bad sign for Kamala.
At 1:19, Halperin calls NV Harris's best swing state and Carlson proudly mangles the state's name, claim we changed how to pronounce it (no) and say we are "judgy" if you don't do it right (yes). I don't usually listen to this, but someone sent it to me.
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Trump is expected to do an interview this week on the Undertaker podcast, which is hosted by retired wrestling great Mark Calaway, per person familiar.
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@tabitha_mueller It accuses her of that because itās a factual statement reported by many outlets.
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Smart, measure it with a large candy cane. Letting Zombie Santa know you come in peace.
Archaeologists in TĆ¼rkiye believe they have discovered the tomb of Saint Nicholas, famously known as Santa Claus š¹š·
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At first glance I thought those were dip cansā¦. which gives me an idea.
That was fastā¦Trump Vance merchandise already being set up inside the convention center:
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šš».
More so than the GOP statewide advantage early on, I think the higher turnout among low propensity GOP voters is something to think about
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She was too busy taking trips in Q3 paid for by special interest. Iām curious, who paid for you (@elainemarzola) to go to El Salvador?.
Of all the candidates for fed and NV legislative office we tried to interview for race profiles, only one repeatedly dodged us and refused to be interviewed by our team. That would be Democratic Assemblywoman @elainemarzola, whose race could be the key to a Dem supermajority. 1/2.
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People have such short memories
If he is a de facto incumbent ā and he claims to be an actual incumbent ā an opponent getting 40 percent is a not-nothing warning sign.
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Poor Jill, she thought she was talking to Joe.
First lady Jill Biden to reporters:. "Why are you screaming at me? You know me. Don't scream at me, just let me talk."
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All I heard leading up to this convention was how Stephanie Cutter was the absolutely best at putting one of these together. Iām left to think that having the President speak at midnight, after kicking him to the curb, can be nothing but intentional.
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The other thing to note here - Trump at 41% in Nevada would be the highest number for a Republican this century.
šØLetās take a deeper look at the Equis poll of 2,010 registered Latinos, where RFK splintered Bidenās Latino support, alarming Democrats I spoke to:. Kennedy support:. - 1 in 5 Latinos age 18-29.- 1 in 5 Latinas .- 17% in Arizona .- 21% in Nevadaā the highest among states polled
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Biden: āJack you donāt know squat, I put NATO back together.ā. Aide: āSir, that was a puzzle.ā.
Biden a figurehead for last 3 years. Insane that we are just now learning this.
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Itās this meme but in early vote blog form.
The early voting blog is updated!. Still very, very small turnout to report, and no conclusions to draw yet. But urban ballots will start coming back soon, and then we will know more. Also, guest appearance by @jeremybhughes. Enjoy:.
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If John Calipari isnāt fired Iāve tried to think of the most serious thing I could do to show my displeasure (and not be arrested). And I believe Iāve figured it out. If Cal is the coach next season, I will be cheering for the University of Louisville.
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Literally no one is divided. Just you, thatās it.
Vance is not the worst person Trump could have chosen. But he's the pick most calculated to divide Republicans.
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Has anyone asked @SteveYeagerNV why he supported a primary opponent of one of his colleagues?. Seems like problems in the Dem caucus, probably why Marzola is gunning for him.
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They were always crazy, you just now get to see it.
Social media has (literally) made some people crazy.
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Just two Nevada Democrats firing up our @nvdems volunteers! We have a lot of work to do until November, but I have no doubt Nevada Dems can and will do the work to turn out voters! It was a pleasure sharing a stage with you Governor! @SteveSisolak šŖš¼ #win2024
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Good Lord, not even close. $35m š.
Setting the Trump fundraising total o/u at $10.5m.
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Hunter currently
If the pardon is through December 1, doesn't this mean Hunter Biden still has almost four hours to commit more crimes?.
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Tbh Iāve thought their ads were terrible. The strategy behind them seemed flawed and the execution substandard at best.
NEWS --> Dems are seriously second-guessing some of the strategies of the biggest pro-Harris Super PAC, Future Forward. They worry outreach to young and nonwhites is faltering and think Trump was able to rehabilitate his favorables too easily. New piece:.
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Iām gonna bet you hear more about this in the future.
Conflict of interest?. Democratic Assemblywoman @elainemarzola received a combined $22,500 in campaign donations from Nevada Resorts PAC and MGM Resorts Intl. while representing plaintiffs in lawsuits against their members and properties.
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I canāt stop laughing at this.
Quick. Track his plane. Freak his wife out. Somebody dress up like Joseph Smith and tell him to stay in Utah. Anything!.
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Imagine if @La_Rue_Hatchās students gave her the type of BS (lying) response she gave the Indy after being called out. What a sad, desperate politician.
NEW: @TheNVIndy fact checks @La_Rue_Hatch's false comments on Opportunity Scholarships. "According to a 2023 Nevada Department of Education report, the average household income of a scholarship recipient was between $55,000 and $59,000. Thatās less than Nevadaās median household.
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Itās 102,267. Not sure why youāre only saying 90,000.
HUGE WIN: 90,000 inactive voters have been removed from the rolls in Clark County, Nevada as a result of our efforts to Protect The Vote. Election integrity starts with clean voter rolls, and that's why we've brought litigation in key states to compel outcomes just like this.
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Watching @MeetThePressā¦the journalist panel really seems to be upset about NBC hiring a Republicanā¦hold on, wait, what is this Jen Psaki promo running during the show!?!.
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My only question about the NV Caucus. will I need my toes to count Ryan Binkleyās total votes or can I just use my fingers?.
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ššš».
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My basic view of Kentucky basketball
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The Rick Pitino and John Calipari double turn with UK fans is rivaled only by Bret and Austin at Wrestlemania 13.
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Dang thatās harsh. A bit of a jerk move to call out the alcoholic brother when you have a crackhead son.
Frank Biden told @cbsnews that his brother's health, "in my humble opinion absolutely" contributed to his decision to bow out. But source close to Biden fam says āFrank Biden suffers from alcoholism and hasnāt spoken to his brother in weeks. What he said. is completely untrue.ā.
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