Jeremy Hughes
@jeremybhughes
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Nevada News - We now have the Clark Co mail file posted.
With mail and EV counted:
Statewide First Day 2020: D+40,000
Statewide First Day 2024: D+1,721
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NV News: I just pulled the new statewide voter file and Republicans now trail Dems by only 15,831 in registrations. This is a gain of over 3,100 in 17 days.
November 2020 the gap stood at over 86,000.
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PREDICTION: Republicans will overtake Democrats today and lead statewide in mail & early voting in Nevada.
I’m not sure this has ever happened in a Presidential,
@RalstonReports
?
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The fact is you could actually do a zoom with 190 countries. I mean you’d have to contact sales, but that’s a minor inconvenience for the planet.
To all those complaining about world leaders flying to attend a mtg on climate change, you’re not saying anything original. Fact is, ya can’t do a zoom call with 190 countries, and face to face talks move the needle the most.
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Republican registrations are surging in Nevada.
Statewide gap
Current — D+ 1.87%
Last Month — D+ 2.14%
To compare
Election Day 2022 — D+ 2.82%
Election Day 2020 — D+ 4.80%
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@Josh_Finestone
I'm not sure folks wrapped their brains around how the voter reg gap shrinking was going to play out. If they didn't...they will now
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It's actually D+1675 if I take out the ballots they need to be cured, but I'll give them those
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Merrick, it’s Joe, I have information that will lead to the arrest of Hillary Clinton
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@McCourt83
@RalstonReports
Puff puff
Nevada 🏜️🎲🎰
Early + mail voting update
Total mail ballots returned: 140,627 (🔵 D+12)
Total early ballots cast: 104,729 (🔴 R+24)
🔴 Republican 39.5% | 96,858 votes
🔵 Democratic 36.3% | 88,983 votes
⚪️ Other 24.3% | 59,515 votes
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Just a thought as NV voting is about to begin.
For the first time since 2004, more Republicans will vote in the presidential election than Democrats.
Kamala will have to win Nonpartisans by at least 3% to win the state.
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Too be fair, some people leave Vegas in a lot worse shape.
NEW from me: Joe Biden Came to Vegas to Energize Latinos. He Left With COVID and Calls to Step Aside
via
@VanityFair
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New SOS update shows that Rs have taken the lead statewide in Nevada, by 8,000 votes or 3 percent.
The Clark firewall is only 4,000 votes, not nearly enough to head off rural losses.
I'll update the blog soon, but here are the numbers:
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New SOS update shows that Rs have taken the lead statewide in Nevada, by 8,000 votes or 3 percent.
The Clark firewall is only 4,000 votes, not nearly enough to head off rural losses.
I'll update the blog soon, but here are the numbers:
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Nevada Voter Reg News
Clark County did a voter roll cleanup and Republicans gained 4,458 voters, Dems advantage is now 8.57% down from 8.69% this morning.
Statewide now the Dems advantage is down to 44,813 and 2.36% (from 2.55%).
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Clark County, NV which has same day registration has netted 509 Republicans today.
Statewide registration is definitely getting under 15,000
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If only that mean Larry Hogan would just step aside and give her the Senate seat, then history could be made
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PREDICTION: Republicans will overtake Democrats today and lead statewide in mail & early voting in Nevada.
I’m not sure this has ever happened in a Presidential,
@RalstonReports
?
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The time I went to the bathroom and OJ took my seat.
I still owe OJ $100 from a bet on that game. Looks like I survived.
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My math was pretty good when we bet Sisolak :)
Republicans’ math is just as bad as it was in 2022 when they claimed Adam Laxalt was going to beat Cortez Masto. The reality is Democrats are outpacing Republicans in turnout - both in Clark and Statewide. ⤵️
Weekend early in-person + mail turnout: 68,424 (D) and 67,169 (R)
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Could totally be wrong, we’ll know shortly, but I think NOTC has a real chance of winning the GOP Primary in NV.
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Ryan is a good guy, smart, and has connections to put together and run a real race. This district has moved towards the GOP by 2% in registration since Naft won it 53-47 against an opponent with no money.
Hearing Ryan Hamilton, recently with
@VegasStronger1
and a veteran of many Nevada political races, is going to run for Clark County Commission, District A. His campaign will focus on homelessness and quality of life issues.
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Since this Thursday tweet Republicans have netted another 483 in Clark.
By the time we get to election day we might be under 14,000.
NV News: I just pulled the new statewide voter file and Republicans now trail Dems by only 15,831 in registrations. This is a gain of over 3,100 in 17 days.
November 2020 the gap stood at over 86,000.
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This tweet didn’t get much attention. Just reminding y’all of it now.
Just a thought as NV voting is about to begin.
For the first time since 2004, more Republicans will vote in the presidential election than Democrats.
Kamala will have to win Nonpartisans by at least 3% to win the state.
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None of this is true.
This person is not a strategist or a scientist, they are an ostrich.
@Brixwoof
@ForecasterEnten
Kerry led Bush until he lost. Romney led Obama until he lost. Clinton was 10+ pts up in states she lost to Trump. When us political scientists say they are not predictive, we mean it. You’d think Harry would know that.
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Nevada News:
The final voter purge before the election sees Republicans net 11,019 on the Dems in Clark County.
Clark went from D +7.42% to D +7.17%.
Dems statewide lead goes from 29k to 18k (pending the other 16 counties providing updates).
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Update, I was not wrong.
Could totally be wrong, we’ll know shortly, but I think NOTC has a real chance of winning the GOP Primary in NV.
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$14m is not the largest ad buy in Nevada history.
Catherine Cortez Masto spent over $26m on TV.
SCOOP: Sen. Jacky Rosen is making a $14 million ad buy — the largest in Nevada history — after Cook Political Report moved the Democrat's closely watched Senate race to a toss-up.
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Reminder that the same Dem dark money group that fund this entity, The Hopewell Fund, also funds the Nevada Current.
Excellent reporting by
@eric_neugeboren
on a Democratic dark money group that has put millions into Nevada.
Eye-opening.
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Amazing candidate recruitment by
@SteveYeagerNV
.
Between this candidate for an open assembly seat and having a former lobbyist for Saudi Arabia running for an open seat on the county commission, it has been amateur hour with the
@nvdems
.
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Statewide: Republicans trail by 1.57%
2022 EDAY: Republicans trail by 2.82%
2020 EDAY: Republicans trail by 4.80%
That is some trend line.
Latest voter registration stats for Nevada are out. Number of Nonpartisans increased by 0.97 percent, Republicans increased by 0.7 percent and Democrats increased by 0.46 percent.
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A reminder, it was this or Make Pope. I’ll take Mark Pope everyday and twice on Sundays compared to this clown show.
John Calipari is expected to bring all his stable of assistants from UK to Arkansas, sources told CBS Sports.
Assistants are: Orlando Antigua, Chin Coleman, Chuck Martin.
Special assistant: Bruiser Flint
Calipari will also bring on his son, Brad, in a player development role.
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If it's true that NV is her best swing states then that's a very, very, very, very bad sign for Kamala.
At 1:19, Halperin calls NV Harris's best swing state and Carlson proudly mangles the state's name, claim we changed how to pronounce it (no) and say we are "judgy" if you don't do it right (yes). I don't usually listen to this, but someone sent it to me.
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Republicans’ math is just as bad as it was in 2022 when they claimed Adam Laxalt was going to beat Cortez Masto. The reality is Democrats are outpacing Republicans in turnout - both in Clark and Statewide. ⤵️
Weekend early in-person + mail turnout: 68,424 (D) and 67,169 (R)
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@tabitha_mueller
It accuses her of that because it’s a factual statement reported by many outlets
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👀
Trump is expected to do an interview this week on the Undertaker podcast, which is hosted by retired wrestling great Mark Calaway, per person familiar
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She was too busy taking trips in Q3 paid for by special interest.
I’m curious, who paid for you (
@elainemarzola
) to go to El Salvador?
Of all the candidates for fed and NV legislative office we tried to interview for race profiles, only one repeatedly dodged us and refused to be interviewed by our team. That would be Democratic Assemblywoman
@elainemarzola
, whose race could be the key to a Dem supermajority.
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At first glance I thought those were dip cans…..which gives me an idea.
That was fast…Trump Vance merchandise already being set up inside the convention center:
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*beat...but you get the point. I'm good at math not spelling, I'll leave that to the comms guy.
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The other thing to note here - Trump at 41% in Nevada would be the highest number for a Republican this century.
🚨Let’s take a deeper look at the Equis poll of 2,010 registered Latinos, where RFK splintered Biden’s Latino support, alarming Democrats I spoke to:
Kennedy support:
- 1 in 5 Latinos age 18-29
- 1 in 5 Latinas
- 17% in Arizona
- 21% in Nevada— the highest among states polled
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People have such short memories
If he is a de facto incumbent — and he claims to be an actual incumbent — an opponent getting 40 percent is a not-nothing warning sign.
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Poor Jill, she thought she was talking to Joe.
First lady Jill Biden to reporters:
"Why are you screaming at me? You know me. Don't scream at me, just let me talk."
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All I heard leading up to this convention was how Stephanie Cutter was the absolutely best at putting one of these together.
I’m left to think that having the President speak at midnight, after kicking him to the curb, can be nothing but intentional.
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Good Lord, not even close. $35m 👀
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Has anyone asked
@SteveYeagerNV
why he supported a primary opponent of one of his colleagues?
Seems like problems in the Dem caucus, probably why Marzola is gunning for him.
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Tbh I’ve thought their ads were terrible. The strategy behind them seemed flawed and the execution substandard at best.
NEWS --> Dems are seriously second-guessing some of the strategies of the biggest pro-Harris Super PAC, Future Forward. They worry outreach to young and nonwhites is faltering and think Trump was able to rehabilitate his favorables too easily.
New piece:
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Just two Nevada Democrats firing up our
@nvdems
volunteers! We have a lot of work to do until November, but I have no doubt Nevada Dems can and will do the work to turn out voters! It was a pleasure sharing a stage with you Governor!
@SteveSisolak
💪🏼
#win2024
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Literally no one is divided. Just you, that’s it.
Vance is not the worst person Trump could have chosen. But he's the pick most calculated to divide Republicans.
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It’s this meme but in early vote blog form.
The early voting blog is updated!
Still very, very small turnout to report, and no conclusions to draw yet. But urban ballots will start coming back soon, and then we will know more.
Also, guest appearance by
@jeremybhughes
.
Enjoy:
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I can’t stop laughing at this
Quick. Track his plane. Freak his wife out. Somebody dress up like Joseph Smith and tell him to stay in Utah. Anything!
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I’m gonna bet you hear more about this in the future
Conflict of interest?
Democratic Assemblywoman
@elainemarzola
received a combined $22,500 in campaign donations from Nevada Resorts PAC and MGM Resorts Intl. while representing plaintiffs in lawsuits against their members and properties.
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Biden: “Jack you don’t know squat, I put NATO back together.”
Aide: “Sir, that was a puzzle.”
Biden a figurehead for last 3 years. Insane that we are just now learning this.
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If John Calipari isn’t fired I’ve tried to think of the most serious thing I could do to show my displeasure (and not be arrested). And I believe I’ve figured it out.
If Cal is the coach next season, I will be cheering for the University of Louisville.
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Watching
@MeetThePress
…the journalist panel really seems to be upset about NBC hiring a Republican…hold on, wait, what is this Jen Psaki promo running during the show!?!
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It’s 102,267. Not sure why you’re only saying 90,000.
HUGE WIN: 90,000 inactive voters have been removed from the rolls in Clark County, Nevada as a result of our efforts to Protect The Vote.
Election integrity starts with clean voter rolls, and that's why we've brought litigation in key states to compel outcomes just like this.
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My only question about the NV Caucus..will I need my toes to count Ryan Binkley’s total votes or can I just use my fingers?
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Dang that’s harsh. A bit of a jerk move to call out the alcoholic brother when you have a crackhead son.
Frank Biden told
@cbsnews
that his brother's health, "in my humble opinion absolutely" contributed to his decision to bow out. But source close to Biden fam says “Frank Biden suffers from alcoholism and hasn’t spoken to his brother in weeks. What he said...is completely untrue.”
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My basic view of Kentucky basketball
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And we pushed folks there by design. We couldn't get their vote but we could keep them from voting for Berkley.
And in 2012 Dean Heller got just 45.9% in Senate race, but ethically damaged Berkley got 44.7%.
The "None" vote: 4.5%
Follow
@RalstonReports
for the deep dives on this phenomenon.
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The Rick Pitino and John Calipari double turn with UK fans is rivaled only by Bret and Austin at Wrestlemania 13
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Imagine if
@La_Rue_Hatch
’s students gave her the type of BS (lying) response she gave the Indy after being called out.
What a sad, desperate politician.
NEW:
@TheNVIndy
fact checks
@La_Rue_Hatch
's false comments on Opportunity Scholarships.
"According to a 2023 Nevada Department of Education report, the average household income of a scholarship recipient was between $55,000 and $59,000. That’s less than Nevada’s median household
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Republicans still hold a statewide lead of 5,888 despite more mail ballots being dropped in Clark.
At this point in 2020 it was Democrats with a lead of 47,000 votes.
We have a nearly 53,000 vote swing.
~14,000 more Clark county mail ballots processed per
@JohnRSamuelsen
NEVADA statewide ->
Total mail ballots returned: 154,943 (D+12)
Total early ballots cast: 104,729 (R+24)
🔴 Republican 101,178 votes (39%)
🔵 Democratic 95,290 votes (37%)
⚪️ Other 63,204 votes (24%)
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Bright side of Mark Pope
1. BYU shot more 3’s than 2’s
2. He was Jeff’s roommate
3. At least we know he won’t be drunk at noon
So basically he’s the 2nd best basketball hire Mitch has made.
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Gotta think if the Biden re-elect is gonna fall apart and a replacement happens - it will start with Michigan uncommitted
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Like Tubby to Minnesota 👋🏻👋🏻
Multiple sources are telling me Arkansas has zeroed in on John Calipari. Barring any last minute issues, I expect him to be the Razorbacks new head coach.
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It did help win a senate race that year!
Good morning from The
#WeMatter
State.
On this date in 2012, the Ninth Circuit upheld NV's "None of These Candidates" option. Mitt Romney backers tried to erase the 1975 law because they worried it would hurt him. (It had no effect.)
Early voting begins: 45
Election Day: 62
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I see her more in the Edith Wilson mold
Yes, because we (the campaign AND all of us in the admin AND dems) are super proud of our
@FLOTUS
. Jane Sanders says it best, “I see her as a first lady in the Eleanor Roosevelt mold—getting out into the community, making sure those voices are getting heard in Washington."
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Oh man, no one show them the website
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BREAKING: President Trump will be at tonight’s UFC fight
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