jack schwager
@jackschwager
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Author of Market Wizard series and Schwager on Futures series. Partner and Cofounder of
Boca Raton, FL
Joined March 2012
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Publishing date set for new book: Unknown Market Wizards
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Just received my advance copies of
#UnknownMarketWizards
. High quality, beautifully designed print job. Kudos to the publisher Harriman House--best publisher I have ever worked with.
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I was saddened to learn that Michael Marcus died 3 months ago. He was one of the greatest traders I ever knew. His brutally honest interview, which was first chapter of the first Market Wizards book, is my favorite.
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These observations are spot on.
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Good traders get out of their position when they change their mind. Great traders reverse their position. Fools (and novices) will stay loyal to their position regardless of market action or changing facts.
@PeterLBrandt
I receive a ton of criticism, sarcasm and trolling because I change my mind on markets.
Just to let you trolls know, I take my willingness and ability to change my mind quickly as a point of survival and pride as a trader.
So, feel free to compliment me by your rudeness.
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I don’t object to some people being richer, even much richer, than others. I object to gain of wealth through political connections rather than earning it by merit.
Edward O. Thorp
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Novices think successful trading is about forecasting when it's really about process.
An acquaintance once asked me to give him a heads up if I saw a winning trade coming. Good luck with that idea. I've never known what trades would be my big winners. Winning trades come from the process of taking small losses.
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UMW Quote 48/155
Trading to earn a consistent amount steadily may be an admirable goal, but it is not a realistic one. Market opportunities are sporadic. Sometimes, the market will provide great opportunities; other times, months will pass without a good trading opportunity.
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May seem like an odd comment from a veteran chart trader, but his point is that the prime usefulness of charts is not forecasting but rather identifying points at which meaningful stop-loss points imply risk that is only a fraction of the potential gain.
To those of you that say charts don't work, I will tell you, you're absolutely right. Price charts fail much more often than they're correct. And price charts, in my opinion, do not provide a great tool for price forecasting.
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Publication Date Today!
Unknow Market Wizards now available.
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The larger the position, the greater the role fear will play, increasing the odds of being shaken out by a meaningless temporary adverse price move.
Many novice market speculators believe that the bigger the position size, the more the profits can occur
Actually, the opposite it true
Smaller position sizes can navigate market volatility more effectively, potentially leading to greater profits, in contrast to the burdensome
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Chris Camillo is one of the traders profiled in upcoming book: Unknown Market Wizards
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@PeterLBrandt
Wow Twitter is way out of line banning the President just because he incited a mob attack on the US Capitol resulting in multiple deaths (including a police officer), endangering the lives of the US Congress (it could have been so much worse) and trashing a symbol of US Democracy
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If you haven't seen this animated video of Ray Dalio's explanation of broad world cycles, it is well worth watching. I think it is a brilliant in explaining historical patterns in such a succinct manner. You will recognize the current state of the U.S.
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Are you a Market Wizard or do you know one? I'm working on a new Market Wizards book and seeking potential interview candidates. For more detail:
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Unknown MW 63/170
It is amazing how many traders are highly proficient in applying a specific methodology, yet fall prey to taking other types of trades, which usually end up with net losses and interfere with the efficient execution of the trades they are skilled at.
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Life is a mixture of chance and choice. Chance can be thought of as the cards you are dealt in life. Choice is how you play them.
Edward O. Thorp
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Betting only at a level at which I was emotionally comfortable and not advancing till I was ready, enabled me to play my system with a calm and disciplined accuracy. This lesson from the blackjack tables would prove invaluable in my investment lifetime.
Edward O. Thorp
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I still remember decades ago when Ed Seykota and I were speakers at the same conference and he gave a talk consisting entirely of magazine covers and the associated charts, which all showed major highs and lows in same time vicinity as magazine cover articles.
The journalists finally caught on... Doesn't this look familiar? Last time we saw one of these, the Dollar peaked a week later...
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UMW Quote 85/155
I succeeded because I have failed so many times, and I had an open mind about failure and was able to learn from it. I failed because I sucked, not because the market was wrong or because someone screwed me, or any of the other excuses you hear.
Jason Shapiro
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Marcus was Chapter 1 in first Market Wizards book. The excerpts in thread contain timeless advice.
Michael Marcus turned $30,000 into $80,000,000 over a 20 year trading career.
That's not a typo.
He was featured in
@jackschwager
's original Market Wizards book as one of the best traders to ever do it.
Here are three of his most important lessons ... 🧵
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Great chart and excellent point. Another classic example of buy the rumor, sell the news
Everybody gets this WRONG.
In the past 50 years, the
#StockMarket
has rallied higher BEFORE the Federal Reserve pivots and starts cutting rates. So AFTER the
#Fed
pivots, the market is already topping (or topped) and about to DROP much lower. Remember this if Fed pivots in 2023
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#UnknownMarketWizards
63/155
It is amazing how many traders are highly proficient in applying a specific methodology, yet fall prey to taking other types of trades, which usually end up with net losses and interfere with the efficient execution of the trades they are skilled at.
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Unknown Market Wizards 166/170
I accept that being in a drawdown is the natural state of a trader. You spend most of your time underwater just like a shark; you’re an apex predator coming up occasionally for a big meal.
@SallAmrit
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#UnknownMarketWizards
#Trading
#Quote
111/170
Trading is going against standard human emotions. As a trader, you are continually going up against your own emotional limitations. That is why so few people succeed in trading.
@SallAmrit
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UMWQuote114/155
A lot of losing traders I have known thought they had to make money consistently. They had a paycheck mentality. The reality is that you may go through long periods when you don’t make anything, or even have a drawdown, and then have a substantial gain.
@SallAmrit
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Amazon currently appears to be running a pre-order promotional discount on my new book Unknown Market Wizards scheduled for Nov 3 publication.
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True success is exiting some rat race to modulate one’s activities for peace of mind.
Nassim Taleb
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Article on the lessons of Paul Tudor Jones (includes excerpts from the original Market Wizards chapter)
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The best trading track record ever given the combination of return, return/risk, length, and AUM—a stark empirical refutation of EMH. I tried twice to get Simons to agree to a MW interview, obviously, unsuccessfully.
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An article featuring the current market views of some notable Market Wizards
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#UnknownMarketWizards
#Trading
#Quote
19/170
I don't sit and speculate with a loss. I learned a long time ago that if you speculate with a loss to get less of a loss, you end up with more of a loss.
.
@peterlbrandt
#trader
#traders
#equities
#futures
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Unknown Market Wizards will be coming out in a paperback edition (pub date: Nov 7). I have done something I have never done before in any Market Wizards book: revisit all the traders for interview updates.
…
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UMW12/155
It used to bother me to be wrong on a trade.I would take it personally. Whereas now,I take pride in the fact that I can be wrong 10 times in a row.I understand my edge comes from the fact that I have become so good at taking losses.
@PeterLBrandt
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“What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end.”
Howard Marks
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First print review of Unknown Market Wizards I have seen.
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Some insights into Renaissance
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#UnknownMarketWizards
#Trading
#Quote
15/170
When you have a big move down, the first rally never holds. If there is ever a case where I want to sell into strength, it would be the first rally after a straight-line drop.
@peterlbrandt
#trader
#traders
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Unknown MW 107/170
There will be periods in the markets where opportunities dry up, and there will be nothing to do. In those nothing periods, if you are looking for something to do, that is when you can create real damage to your account.
@SallAmrit
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UMW 20/155
My philosophy is strong opinions, weakly held. The minute a trade reaches into my pocket, it becomes a weakly held position, and I'll drop it like a hot potato. I can go from a strong opinion to being out of the market in one day.
@PeterLBrandt
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#UnknownMarketWizards
#Trading
#Quote
148/155
I'm not trying to predict the future; I am trying to accurately and quickly depict the present. I'm not trying to predict what people will do, but rather identify what they are doing right now.
@ChrisCamillo
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UnknownMarketWizards 51/170
You don't have to exit a profitable trade all at once. Even if a trade reaches your target, it may make sense to keep a small portion of the position, so you get some additional profit if the market keeps moving in the direction of the original trade.
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To which I would add:
3. Trendlines often may look like they work because they are drawn with hindsight, whereas in real time they would have had to be redrawn multiple times.
My two cents on trend-lines
1. All trendlines are made to be broken
2. Give a gorilla a chart book, a ruler and an ink pen and sooner or later the gorilla will draw a trendline worthy of a Twitter post
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"If you're not getting the results you want, change what you're doing."
"But isn't that what people do?"
"Not at all, they do more of the same. They spend more time. They try harder. They double-down on whatever it is they are already doing."
Adam Robinson
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Jason Shapiro, the contrarian trader interviewed in Unknown Market Wizards, has been releasing short videos where he talks about his views on various market/trading topics. These videos are about 10 minutes long and are well worth sampling.
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Unknown MW 64/170
Protective stops should be placed at a point that disproves your trade hypothesis. Using a closer stop because it represents the maximum amount of money you are willing to risk is an indication that your position is too large.
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This reminds me of when Ed Seykota was a fellow speaker at a San Francisco conference about 30 years ago and he gave a speech using only magazine covers and charts with arrows marking the magazine dates. It was memorable.
Magazine covers are often contrarian signals. Why? Because markets are often thoroughly discounted by the time narratives reach saturation, the point of maximum value for enterprising editors.
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1 of 2
The world always makes sense. So when you think that it doesn't, it's your model of the world that doesn't make sense. And something seeming not to make sense is always a hint of something hidden. Something you haven't considered.Something exceedingly powerful...
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Good illustration of how these type of charts can be cherry-picked to show any conclusion. Hindsight bias is the culprit.
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UMW 119/155
[Successful traders] embrace failure as feedback. They understand that failure is a necessity on the path to success in any endeavor. They realize that something is a failure only if they miss the opportunity to learn from it.
@SallAmrit
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#UnknownMarketWizards
#Trading
#Quote
162/170
The three most important things to succeed in trading are patience—the ability to wait for the right trade rather than feeling you have to trade all the time—discipline, and risk management.
Jason Shapiro
@Crowded_Mkt_Rpt
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Unknown Market Wizards 120/170
I’m not looking for instant gratification; I put in the work and then wait patiently for the right trade. I can stay in a state of readiness, so when the big trade comes, I don’t hesitate. I can go from zero to a hundred instantaneously.
@SallAmrit
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UMW14/155
The hard part about trading is that you can do the right thing and still lose money.A year from now will I be able to see in the chart the day and the price at which I took a position?" If [I can],then it is a good trade, regardless of whether it wins or loses.
P.Brandt
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UMW Quote 40/155
Many traders fail to comprehend the critical distinction between bad trades and losing trades—the two are definitely not the same. The determinant of a good trade is whether you followed your methodology, not whether the trade made money.
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UMW 106/155
I learned the importance of being patient. Market opportunities are always going to be there. With the benefit of hindsight and experience,I can now say the big trades are pretty simple. You don't have to go looking for them,but you do have to wait for them
@SallAmrit
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#UnknownMarketWizards
#Trading
#Quote
42/170
The worst drawdowns often follow periods when everything seems to be working perfectly…One possible explanation is that winning streaks lead to complacency, and complacency leads to sloppy trading.
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Audible format of new book Undiscovered Market Wizards now in pre-sale. Same great narrator (DJ Holte) who did the audio for New Market Wizards and the new audio version for Market Wizards.
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Unknown Market Wizards 55/170
Many traders erroneously evaluate their trading based solely on outcomes, whereas meaningful evaluation should be based on whether trading decisions were consistent with their methodology and risk control rules.
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#UnknownMarketWizards
120/155
I’m not looking for instant gratification; I put in the work and then wait patiently for the right trade. I can stay in a state of readiness, so when the big trade comes, I don’t hesitate. I can go from zero to a hundred instantaneously.
@SallAmrit
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If you ever wanted to know the true story of Jesse Livermore, check out this podcast. Patrick Boyle does his usual excellent job in both presenting the facts and drawing the lessons to be learned.
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#UnknownMarketWizards
#Trading
#Quote
23/155
All my profits come from 10%–15% of my trades; all the other trades are throwaways…The problem, of course, is that I never know which trades are going to be in that 10%–15%
@PeterLBrandt
#trader
#traders
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#UnknownMarketWizards
#Trading
#Quote
6/155
A popcorn trade is what I call a trade that you have a profit on and then ride it all way back down to where you got in. I try to avoid popcorn trades.
@PeterLBrandt
#trading
#trader
#traders
#equities
#futures
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UMW Quote 9/155
Whenever I take a trade, I limit my risk to about 1/2% of my equity from the point of entry. I want to have my stops at breakeven or better within two or three days of entry. My average loss last year was 23 basis points.
@PeterLBrandt
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Unknown MW 100/170
Opportunities are dispersed. You might have an opportunity today and then have to wait three months for the next opportunity. That reality is hard to accept because you want to make a steady income from trading, but it doesn't work that way.
Richard Bargh
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Unknown Market Wizards, which is scheduled for Nov 3 release, has reached
#3
on kindle best-seller Investment book list.
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#UnknownMarketWizards
#Trading
#Quote
62/155
The one question every trader needs to be able to answer is: What is your edge? If you don't have a clear answer, you won't know which trades to focus on or which trades merit a larger position size.
#Traders
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UMW 110/155
The ocean surface is covered with waves and turbulence, but if you dive down, it is calm. We all have the ability in us to dive down into that calm region…You need to pull away from all those primitive reactions to a higher self—a calm and centered person.
@SallAmrit
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Amrit Sall, the "Unicorn Sniper" featured in Unknown Market Wizards has started posting on Twitter. In his email making me aware of this step he said, " I am at a point in my career where I feel compelled to give back by sharing my thoughts and ideas with others."
@SallAmrit
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Unknown MW 124/170
My style has often been referred to that of a sniper. I am in a constant state of readiness waiting for that perfect shot. I don’t want to waste my bullets doing anything else because it will jeopardize my ability to take that perfect shot.
@SallAmrit
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Unknown MW 115/170
Losing traders will get locked into a state of negativity. They will let their losses affect them. It is a snowball effect. They will have a loss, and another loss, and another loss, and then, all of a sudden, they are in this really dark place.
@SallAmrit
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UMW Quote 83/155
The most powerful word in the markets is “despite.” If you hear or see a comment like, “Despite the increase in oil inventories being much higher than expected, oil prices closed higher,” that is the tape telling you what is going to happen.
Jason Shapiro
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#UnknownMarketWizards
#Trading
#Quote
93/155
The problem is that you only remember the times you got out, and the trade then went to the target; you don't remember all the times when you got out, and it saved you money.
@richbargh
#trader
#traders
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The secret [to success] is to find something you’re good at. The rewards and recognition that stem from being great at something will make you passionate about whatever that something is.
Scott Galloway
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Got to love this.
No big deal; just a guy playing fetch with a beluga whale... 😮
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UMW 159/170
It is harder dealing with a winning trade than a losing trade. The recipe for handling a losing trade is simple. I don’t want to be in it... But in a winning trade that is not near my target, I sometimes may get spooked out of the trade for some reason.
@peterlbrandt
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#UnknownMarketWizards
#Trading
#Quote
13/155
A trader's job is to take losses. A losing trade doesn’t imply you did anything wrong.
@PeterLBrandt
#trader
#traders
#equities
#futures
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@Freedomtrader77
@PeterLBrandt
Being anti Trump (who is an anti-democratic, pathological liar and con man who cares only about himself) does not imply being pro radical left. FYI when I lived is Seattle I worked to defeat left-wing council members. Yes the anarchist left suck but so does Trump.
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Unknown Market Wizards
#3
on Amazon's Investing New Releases. Book will release in hardback, ebook and audio formats on Nov 3.
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Market Wizards Search: If you have suggestions for interview candidates for new book email me directly at jschwager
@fundseeder
.com
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UMW Quote 77/155
Winning traders understand they are responsible for their outcomes. Losing traders, on the other hand, will always have some excuse for why they lost. They followed someone else's bad advice; the market was wrong; high-frequency traders distorted prices, etc.
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#UnknownMarketWizards
#Trading
#Quote
141/155
What are the characteristics of bad traders? They have no process.They make their decisions emotionally and are incredibly impulsive, which is why they are swayed by panic and end up buying near highs and selling near lows.
@JohnNetto
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UMW 114/170
A lot of losing traders I have known thought they had to make money consistently. They had a paycheck mentality. The reality is that you may go through long periods when you don’t make anything, or even have a drawdown, and then have a substantial gain.
@SallAmrit
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#UnknownMarketWizards
92/170
People have difficulty in cutting losses because they are afraid of getting out of the trade and then seeing it go in their direction. It's an ego thing. I was making the same mistake for years.
Richard Bargh
…
#trader
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#UnknownMarketWizards
#Trading
#Quote
90/155
If you feel uncomfortable, you have to explore that feeling because there is a reason why you are uncomfortable, and you have to find out why.
@richbargh
#trader
#traders
#equities
#futures
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