Peter Brandt
@PeterLBrandt
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Chart trader since 1975. Author. Featured in Market Wizard. Also on X @plb_opinions Prem Membership Scam warning
MN and AZ
Joined February 2011
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Pinned Tweet
My goal is to help members understand the process of market speculation + challenges to overcome to be successful. For details on The Factor visit / Bitcoin Live visit
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Big picture $BTC
Bitcoin is undergoing its third parabolic advance in the past decade. A parabolic advance on an arithmetic scale is extremely rare - three on a log scale is historic
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Bitcoin takes aim at $100,000 target. $btcusd is experiencing its fourth parabolic phase dating back to 2010. No other market in my 45 years of trading has gone parabolic on a log chart in this manner. Bitcoin is a market like no other.
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Full disclosure
-I am NOT a $BTC maximalist
-In 46 yrs trading, I've never seen a more exciting market with a similar narrative
3. My largest current single non-real estate holding is Bitcoin.
Yet, for me, BTC is just another market to be traded, like Beans or T-Notes or Sugar
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I find it fascinating that many (not all) on social media who wore laser eyes in Mar/Apr and predicted a rocket shot 🚀for $BTC in Nov now are predicting that the $30k level will be violated
When bulls wear laser eyes -- time to SELL
When bulls become bears -- time to BUY????
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I sincerely apologize for any disrespect shown to those who climbed aboard the alt-coin train early and have the gains to show for it. Congrats on a job really well done. You exemplify the best of a new generation of market speculators. I am a dinosaur in a new game.
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This is the type of news that comes at or near a major market bottom $BTC $ETH
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For the record, I completely understand how ppl feel disenfranchised by the Upper 1% ers, the Fed, government, Wall Street, banks, et al. I get it.
And, I completely understand how ppl see $BTC and cryptos as something that can level the playing field.
I am cheering you on 🙂🙌
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Stages of a Bubble as seen by a 45 year trading veteran
Stage 1. A neighbor asks me what I know about $BTC
Stage 2. A friend ask if $BTC is a good buy
Stage 3. A relative asks if he/she should buy $BTC
Stage 4. A person I've not seen in 30 yrs, calls, bragging he/she bought $BTC
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On a personal note, I want to be a good sport. Congratulations to all who are fully engaged in Bitcoin $BTC and other coins and see them as the bottom layer of the world's future monetary systems. I believe there is a chance for this to occur, with Bitcoin becoming an important
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Either from Dec '18 low or from retest of same (circa analog dbl bottom in 2015) it would not surprise me if $BTC enters a new parabolic phase. $btcusd
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Millennials embrace $BTC et al, in part, as reaction to $217 Tril of global debt and massive wealth inequality forced upon them by Gen X and B-Boomer parents and grandparents. Cryptos are statement: "There must be a better way"
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Two interesting things happened to me today.
Got a haircut. Barber told me to buy Gold -- said the Fed is printing too much money.
Got a tire fixed. Owner of shop told me to buy Silver -- said the Fed is printing too much money.
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I'm taking a break from Tweeting about cryptos $BTC
Will focus comments on such markets as T-Notes, Wheat, Silver, equities
It's time for me to spend more time in an audience with adult manners and thoughts
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Realities of a trader
1. Losing money makes us feel inadequate
2. Making money (but never enough) makes us feel inadequate
3. Being on the sidelines makes us feel inadequate
A purpose of the market is to make us feel inadequate
Welcome to the life I've lived for 45 years
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The completion of a bear channel typically results in a decline equal to the width of the channel, or in this case a hard test of 32,000 or so -- my guess is 28,000
This does NOT make me a hater $BTC
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I have made my living since 1975 trading futures markets using charts
My conclusion on chart trading:
1. Charts do NOT predict prices
2. Most chart patterns fail
3. Charts simply tell us where a market
has been
4. The only value in charts is for trade/risk management
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$BTC is entering the stage of its life cycle when stale and weak money capitulates and strong hands accumulate strategically
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I need to express my greatest respect and awe for the Ys and Zs who are embracing investing, trading and cryptos in a remarkable way. I welcome you to the world of trading and am learning a lot from you. I hope $BTC $XRP et al go to the Moon and beyond.
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Please all be aware that Bitcoin $BTC is developing the infamous "three blind mice" chart construction.
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Bitcoin $BTC is redefining the concept of "overbought." Bull markets become and remain overbought. Major bull markets become overbought majorly. Historic bull markets become historically overbought. Red arrows mark midpoints of parabolic advances
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The best advice I can offer newbies:
1. Limit loss per trade to 1% of capital (2% max)
2. Learn that 80% of trades are throw-aways. Play for the 20%.
3. Don't worry about catching tops/bottoms. The money is made between the 30-yard lines
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For the record, from my inception trading cryptos I have stated my belief there is a 50% chance $BTC goes to $100k, $500K, $1MM, you name it; and, a 50% chance it becomes basically worthless.
My opinion has not changed
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People ask me why I trade Bitcoin $BTC
Ask no more!
In my 45-year trading career there has never been another market like Bitcoin.
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The last time Factor's benchmark weekly MA was in the current profile of turning from down to up was in Nov 2015 just as $BTC began its move from $340 to $19,800.
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There is talk about Boeing☂️✈️bail out. Totally opposed👎. I’d let Boeing go into chapter 11. Let companies restructure & comes back with clean balance sheet. That's capitalism. Bail outs socialize losses, privatize gains. Retirees/savers are going to get totally stiffed again.
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Nifty
#India
is breaking into new highs on expanded volume. This appears as if India could lead the next bull trend for global equities. $IN_F
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My advise to Gen Zers is
-Get degree in a field with jobs
-Avoid student debt as possible
-Secure good job, think about mkts as hobby
-Buy a home/get married/be frugal
-Contribute mo. savings to $BTC & stks of solid companies - & HOLD
-Keep buying/hope for cheaper prices
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Inflation? What inflation?
This graph shows the destruction of the purchasing power of the U.S. Dollar in the years since my birth.
$1 in 1947 is now worth 7.4 cents $USD
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Bitcoin -- the trade of a lifetime
There has never been and never again will be another asset like Bitcoin $BTC
Here is the perspective from my 50-year career as a professional trader
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Us old-timers have learned that whenever
@GoldmanSachs
enters a market niche it is time to guard your money. $BTC
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Charts of interest to me
I am interested in buying $BTC around $53,000 and $ETH around $4,030
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44 years as a trader have led me to one conclusion -- I may think I know what a given market is going to do (and be opinionated about it) but in the final analysis I do not have a clue.
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Wow!!! $BTC challenging upper resistance line of parabolic advance. This is biggest bull market of my 43 years of as a trader.
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Fellow crypto traders -- enjoy this experience. Spend your profits wisely (pay off student loans, don't buy a Ferrari). There has never been a market like this, and won't be another in your lifetime. $LTC $BTC $ETH
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Note to my trolls (assuming you can read)
Let me type this really slow so that you might understand -- I have only shorted cryptos once in my life (Nov 14, 2018)
I have been continually long $BTC since early Apr 2019. I want Bitcoin price to go UP (spelled U P)
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IMO,
#Bitcoin
maximalists should oppose spot $BTC ETFs in U.S. Bitcoin's store of value story depends on its scarcity and even some difficulty to purchase. Let's not encourage greedy grub-hungry Wall Street to convert BTC into a vending machine asset.
Say NO to ETFs
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Over the years my most profitable trades have been produced by HOLDING, not by active trading.
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My advice to young traders who want long trading careers:
Stop being obsessed with catching tops and bottoms and become willing to accept large chunks in the middle.
Or, because I am a boomer, forget what I just said.
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The $BTC pattern is called an ascending triangle (right). Read about Asc Tris in Schabacker, Study III, pgs 93-
Also, compare present pattern to similar structure in 2019 (left)
#Bitcoin
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As trader for 45 years I've seen the same theme again and again
The demise of amateur traders is too much size. Their greed motivates them to over-size trades.
The reality is that adopting smaller sizing will improve long-term profitability. Seems contradictory, but it is not.
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Absolutely amazing. My nod for best chart I have seen today.
You're looking at the first breakout of
#Bitcoin
against M1 money supply since March 2017 when it went historically parabolic for 9 months.
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If Bitcoin can hold these lows and move higher the chart will qualify as a very common bull market continuation chart construction. $BTC
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Any idiot can make wild guesses about markets, so here is my dunce-hat prediction. In reality, nobody has a clue what any given market will do. $BTC
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If you want to really know yourself -- I mean REALLY know yourself, the good, the bad and the ugly, just become a trader. You will discover character flaws you never knew existed.
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General TA rule -- violation of parabolic advance leads to 80%+ decline in value. If general rule is followed, BTC should retrace to <$4,000. Note: This Tweet does not make me a hater.
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If I had a chance to relive my entire 44 year trading career I would divert my trading profits into:
1. Income producing real estate - 33%
2. Blue chips with no debt - 33%
3. Growth companies - 33%
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A great technical analyst cannot always be a good trader. A good trader is always a good risk manager -- it is what makes him/her a good trader. Trading and analysis are two different skill sets. A tiny percentage of traders possess both capabilities.
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If Dec 2017 to Feb 2019 is an analog to Dec 2013 to Jan 15, do you have a tactica plan to become fully invested in $BTC? I do.
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Blowing through resistance on a log graph -- in 42 years of trading I have NEVER seen anything like this. $BTC $btcusd
#Bitcoin
Pay attention folks, you may never see something like this again.
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Charts do NOT predict prices. No form of TA predicts prices.
Charts suggest the path of least resistance
Charts provide a means to determine the risk of a trade
Charts offer help in timing
Charts offer POSSIBILITIES, not probabilities and certainly not certainties
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Now officially the largest correction since the Mar 2020 low.
But, how can this be????? There is supposed to be institutional support. $BTC. This was not supposed to happen!!!!!
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Redux from Nov 15
Charts of interest to me
I am interested in buying $BTC around $53,000 and $ETH around $4,030
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True story about
@CNBCFastMoney
I was scheduled to appear on Dec 14. I was planning to say $BTC was topping & time to bail out. I was bumped for some "expert" that predicted $50,000. That is my
@CNBC
story.
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The biggest lesson I have learned in 43 yrs of trading: No matter how sure I am about where a market will go, in reality I have no clue
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Trading advice
It's difficult to longer-term invest (hodl) and actively trade with the same account. Attempting to do so can mess up one's head space.
Best always to separate capital and strategy into completely different accounts, accessed separately.
What has worked for you?
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The markets and trading have a magnificent way of making me feel like a genius one day and a complete idiot the next day. 🎢
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This is a monthly closing price chart of
#Silver
$SI_F $SLV that might get you excited.
#WSB
@wallstreetbets
The target is $102 on arithmetic scale
Pump It
I love to see Gen XYZ taking it to my fellow Boomers PDQ
That's
#XYZPDQ
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Historically, 15% of my trades produce 85% of net annual profits (bottom-liners)
Guess what? -- if I knew which ones were going to be the bottom-liners I would have not taken the others
Losing trades are an inevitable part of the process of finding the really good trades
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The fill prices received in $BTC by
@BinanceUS
clients (sell stops filled as low as $9,000) were criminal IMO. The
@SECGov
@CFTC
must investigate. IMO, if Binance was on buy side of low ball trades CEO
@BrianShroder
should receive jail time and Binance should be shut down
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For the record
I'm long-term $BTC bull, believe narrative
From beginning I've thought laser-eyed Hodl-forever love affair is lunatic
Any mkt that's had four 80%-plus DDs in 12 years is NOT an investment, but pure speculation
Marry a spouse, not a coin
Crypto is a bad religion
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Big picture perspective on owning $BTC in appropriate size with money you can afford to lose
Market topped $64,7kf
Market corrected to $30,0k
Worst I can envision is $21,0k
Why would someone bail out of non-leveraged longs when the market already had 80% of worst case drop?
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When it looks like a pennant and acts like a pennant it is often a pennant $BTC
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Bitcoin Update
With the thrust above the upper boundary of the 15-month channel, the target for the current bull market cycle scheduled to end in Aug/Sep 2025 is being raised from $120,000 to $200,000. $BTC
A close below last week's low will nullify this interpretation
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I attempt to alert Members to 10 big trends a year. More importantly my goal is to help members understand process of market speculation + challenges to overcome to be successful. For details on The Factor visit / Bitcoin Live visit
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Possibility that $BTC has entered fourth parabolic phase
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I am not proud to call myself a baby-boomer. I am ashamed of my generation. Boomers have selfishly sold out the future of their children and grand children.
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I am so jealous. So many novices to crypto trading have become such all encompassing experts on trading in such a short time when it took me 5 years to gain self-sufficiency in futures and forex back in the 1970s. You're all geniuses.
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Implications of volume
Key bottoms in $BTC have occurred with high volume panic capitulation
That has (yet???) to happen
Thoughts???
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Renko charts, originating in Japan, are probably the most useful for staying with a trend and not getting whipped around by shorter-term volatility. As shown for $BTC
#Bitcoin
, the trend from $6,000s to $60,000s was steady. So has been the decline since April
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Many altcoins benefited from the last bull run in $BTC
Cryptomaniancs expect alts to do so again - they may be very disappointed
2000 .com bubble is analog
Following 2001-02 tech collapse, dotcoms with real value exploded
The "alt" .coms went bankrupt
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Bitcoin $BTC - major highs and length to exceed them
Cheerleaders who constantly beat the drums of "to the moon" are doing a huge disservice to $BTC investors
Corrections can be lengthy
Long endurance, not constant hype, should be the message
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Whether it be from $50,000, $100,000 or $1 million, the greed of
#cryptomaniacs
will eventually be their demise.
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The purpose of market corrections is to punish the stubborn.
Severe corrections come to an end when enough ppl who earlier claimed they would never capitulate finally end up capitulating.
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Do not chase breakouts. If you miss a breakout, just count it as a missed trade. Dogs that chase cars end up under the wheels.
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Is Bitcoin a form of money?
U.S. Dollars in circulation = $2.1 Trillion
Market cap of $BTC = $1.1 Trillion
Officially Held Gold Reserves (35,000 tonnes) = $2.2 Trillion
Looks to me as if Bitcoin has joined the big leagues
Is $BTC a world currency? You decide.
Thoughts?
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In case you trade this (I don't)
Coin is enjoying SEC ruling and the madness of crowds
Weekly chart H&S patterns are too often not to believed. But sometimes they come true.
This possible inverted H&S with stunted RS would indicate prices a boat load higher (new ATHs). $XRP
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Funny thing about mass adoption of new technology. The more laptop and handheld computers became adopted the cheaper the prices became.
$BTC
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For Millennials I certainly see putting 25%+ of your investment assets into cryptos (once your living expenses are covered). If you right you are set for life. If you are wrong you have time to replenish your pile of chips.
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Sleep well tonight. We are all so lucky to be living in an age when Fed will bail us out.😉😉
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Laser eyes.🤖
The single most bearish factor I am presently considering for Bitcoin.
Unbridled enthusiasm + FOMO buying usually =s deep and/or long correction
Not only is it obnoxious, it is stupid
If you want the world to take $BTC seriously, then stop acting like children
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A retest of $20,000 and 2017 high could provide relief rally in $btc. But remember — relief rally only
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The chart suggests a target of $300. Targets are not sacred -- sometimes they are hit, sometimes not, sometimes exceeded. But for now I would not buy $ETH with my enemy's money $ETH
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$67,193
This is what one $BTC will be worth if the the composite value of Bitcoin (at 21 MM mined) equals the value of the 33k tonnes of Gold $GC_F
#GOLD
held by the world's central banks.
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When I grew up a LONG LONG time ago, my parents emphasized the following
-Be kind and polite
-Let common sense rule your decisions
-Respect your elders
-Work hard & be reliable
-Be independent (don't depend upon others)
Are these considered important values anymore?
Thoughts?
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One thing I have learned from 45 years of trading:
Markets have a tendency to do what the most number of market participants least expect and don't want to happen.
Descending triangles are most often bearish.
$BTC
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#Bear_Trap
I have a strong suspicion that recent weakness, especially overnight, successfully washed out weak longs and might have trapped some bears. Of course subsequent price action would need to confirm this. $ETH
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Will one of you tree-huggers out there explain to me why it is better to import oil from OPEC, Russia and Iran rather than to be energy independent as the U.S. was less than two years ago??? Please, share your wisdom.
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I get tired of saying it, but $ETH is a junk coin despite mindless devotion of Etheridiots.
As a store of value it is junk - a $BTC pretender
Its functionality is also junk - difficult to deal with L2s and outrageous gas fees
Of course it will always attract "investors"
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Wanting to ditch day job to trade full time? My advice
1. Entire account capitalization should be from trading profits
2. Don't expect >50% annual RORs
3. Don' risk >2% of capital per trade
4. Have 18 months of living expenses saved separately
5. Expect Yr
#1
to be a loser
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Someday - maybe not this month, this year, this decade - $BTC & cryptos will have a "come to Jesus" correction.
Fortunes/inheritances/life savings will be lost
Losers will be:
-Those that really don't understand cryptocurrencies & cannot stand the pain
-Those that are leveraged
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I receive a ton of criticism, sarcasm and trolling because I change my mind on markets.
Just to let you trolls know, I take my willingness and ability to change my mind quickly as a point of survival and pride as a trader.
So, feel free to compliment me by your rudeness.
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I love it how the crypto market has created so many instant geniuses who after a year or so of trading now know everything that will happen in the future to global finance/banking
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Should note that huge monthly bars are usually "starting" or "take-off" candles or "ending" or "blow-off" candles.
My bet is that this is a "starting" candle. Note the bars in late 2020. $BTC
Oct 2021 was blow off candle for example
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I have shown this chart many times in the past in slightly different iterations and it remains my preferred interpretation $BTC
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