Peter Inglesby
@inglesp
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Writing software for epidemiologists at @BennettOxford by day, doing amateur psephology by night
UK
Joined January 2009
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Morning all -- and hello new followers!
There are now twelve (and counting?) different models making seat-by-seat predictions for next Thursday's election, and while they all indicate a Labour landslide, there's a lot of disagreement in the details.
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An anonymous "student with a love of politics" has just shared this splendid spreadsheet packed with analysis -- bookmarked for Thursday night:
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Hello everyone, less than 48 hours until the polls open...
This morning I've added a "coefficient of correlation" to the aggregator, to indicate how much the models agree or disagree in each seat:
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Fellow nerds: I built a thing to compare general election predictions from different constituency models (Britain Predicts, Electoral Calculus, Economist, FT)
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Late lunchtime update: I've updated the tracker with all the latest predictions, including a new entry from
@JLPartnersPolls
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This is what happens when your little project gets mentioned in the Guardian on election night
(The y-axis is visits per minute)
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To my bafflement, and my family's amusement, I've been invited to talk about election predictions (and to share my own?!) with
@rosiewright99
on Times Radio at 5.45 tomorrow morning...
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And while there are 24 constituencies with at least one prediction of Reform winning, there are only 4 where three models agree.
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Lunchtime update: a couple of new little features to play with this evening...
Firstly, a new page that breaks seats down by predicted margin -- look how many Conservative seats are predicted to be held by less than 5%
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Just a quick update this morning: to reflect the thin margins of many of the predictions, I've made a tweak to the colours on the site.
For instance, here are all the seats where there's a prediction of the Greens winning tomorrow:
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I've just pushed an update to my aggregator of election predictions that lets you find all the constituencies where at least N models agree.
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@colinrtalbot
Right! I've got plans to evaluate the predictions, based not just on who got the most seats right, but on who was best able to model trends across the country. Watch this space!
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Users of open source: why not drop a line to a library maintainer to tell them that you're using the library and what you're using it for?
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Now on the site:
More in Common have always been the MRP that's given the Tories the biggest vote share, and even they are now only predicting 126 seats
🏁 Our final
@moreincommon_
@TheNewsAgents
MRP projects a Labour majority of 210 & worst defeat in Tory Party history
🔴LAB 430 (+228)
🔵CON 126 (-239)
🟠LD 52 (+41)
🟡SNP 16 (-32)
🟣REF UK 2 (+2)
🟢GRN 1 (-)
🟢 PLAID 2 (-2)
⚪️ OTH 2 (+2)
N 13,556 | 24/6 to 1/7
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Have a play, and let me know if you find anything interesting!
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From the department of better-late-than-never, I've added to my site some "league tables" evaluating the performance of the seat-by-seat predictions for the 2024 general election:
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Hello everyone, less than three days until the polls open...
This morning I've added a new feature to my site that aggregates seat-by-seat predictions: you can now rank constituencies by the vote share or majority for each party
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Time for a second beer!
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It's getting rather crowded
🦕 Here is our
@TheEconomist
/
@wethinkpolling
MRP!
And
@JamesFransham
has updated our Britain prediction model methodology.
This is how we're thinking about the election (with maps + charts!) 🧵
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Right, back from the pub, and everyone's in a better mood than last time:
Was in a pub last election night with lots of Labour activists who'd spent the day only knocking on doors of probable voters, and there was genuine shock when the exit poll was announced at 10pm
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system working -- need a few more results to come in before I can open that second beer though
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Also: I'm expecting several more final predictions to be released today, and will do my best to get them onto the site as quickly as I can, around family and work commitments.
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I don't really know what's going on in Exmouth and Exeter East, but it's the only seat where four different parties are predicted to win -- anyone got any local knowledge to share?
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Sitting in the back row at my parents' choral society summer concert and am not the only one who's not been paying full attention
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Walking around Stroud's canals today we saw more posters for the UK Hamster Party than for the Tories!
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I've added a page of tactical voting recommendations to the aggregator:
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Actually as much as this is a pain in the arse after coming in from the pub: hats off to Survation for acknowledging the limits of their model like this
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The seats with the greatest disagreement are all ones with local factors that are hard to model:
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I've just pulled in the latest data from several sources, including tonight's Survation MRP and the latest Electoral Calculus data, which seems to have calmed down a bit -- they're no longer claiming North Cotswolds for Reform...
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No, and Exmouth and Exeter East is the only one with four
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I haven't added this to the site yet, because they've not given a prediction for North Shropshire, and that breaks some assumptions in my code
NEW MRP: Labour 99% Certain To Win More Seats Than in 1997
Labour on Course to Win 484 seats.
The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are in a close race to form the official opposition.
Probabilistic seat count:
LAB 484
CON 64
LD 61
SNP 10
RFM 7
PC 3
GRN 3
34,558 interviews
566
1K
4K
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Is it just my screen (or my eyes?) or is Cleverly's rosette a Dairy Milk purple?
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At the other end of the spectrum, the models are all in agreement that Labour are going to do well in the North West...
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Come and work with me!
WE ARE HIRING
We need a DJANGO developer for
@EBMDataLab
We are fun, our outputs are awesome and change the world. We make and many more similar in pipeline.
TELL YOUR FRIENDS.
E: hello
@ebmdatalab
.net
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...but spending the weekend before the conference getting stuff done with people you like and respect is really enjoyable.
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Proud to have played a small part in this:
In normal circumstances, obtaining permission to look at sensitive health data would take months or years. A new team has gone from idea to publication in just 42 days
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Am not a commentator, but I would honestly be shocked to see Reform win next door in North Cotswolds
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There's still one seat outstanding, and it's a fitting one -- I wrote much of the code that supports interrogating the data in a tent on Skye only three weeks ago
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Python programmers: stop what you're doing and watch
@brandon_rhodes
show you how you ought to be doing it:
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The Datalab is hiring engineers:
Our work is important and interesting, and has a real impact. We get stuff done.
Please spread the word, and let me know if you have any questions.
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Also now up:
🚨Final MRP estimates from
@focaldataHQ
is for a 238 seat Labour majority with Labour on 444 seats, Conservatives on 108 seats, Liberal Democrats on 57 seats, SNP on 15, Reform on 2 seats
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As it happens I hope to add a "coefficient of agreement" to the table this evening, all being well
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Oh no, I missed one. Now on the site:
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I'm also going to be co-ordinating the John Pinner Award, where we'll recognise contributions to the UK Python Community in memory of John, who founded PyCon UK. More details on this very soon.
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You can see the still-undeclared seats here:
We've past the halfway point on results ��� 351 down, 299 to go.
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My first company made firewalls for telecom systems. I was a load tester. I kicked off a long-running load test and went off to get married. Returned from honeymoon to discover that I'd routed all traffic through company's own corporate firewall. Oops.
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@JonnElledge
Down to 13 (JLP had NE Hampshire as a tie which I was showing incorrectly), and by one measure, Brentwood and Ongar is the most comfortable -- it's got the highest smallest predicted Tory majority of 3.7%, if that makes any sense
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I made this!
Using a combination of
@SlackHQ
, an RSS feed from
@PSNCNews
and our very own ebmbot (built by
@EBMDataLab
) we can get personalised price concession alerts to you within 7 minutes - if we ask ebmbot nicely. Sign up for yours at
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North Shropshire had the massive swing to the LDs in the 2021 by-election; North Herefordshire and Waveney Valley are both Green target seats; Ashfield had a strong independent candidate in 2019 and has Lee Anderson's defection to Reform; and Islington North has Corbyn
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Excellent and clear and well two minutes
Beware people brandishing data they say "proves" only we can win here.
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Was in a pub last election night with lots of Labour activists who'd spent the day only knocking on doors of probable voters, and there was genuine shock when the exit poll was announced at 10pm
If you watch back the 1997 election night broadcast you will see much discussion that looks exactly like this - “feeling on the doorstep much more positive than the polls.” Then the results come.
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It's not a coincidence that I'm retweeting this after midnight...
"Give someone a program, you frustrate them for a day; teach them how to program, you frustrate them for a lifetime." - David Leinweber
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It's been a lot of fun watching this all come together
OUR NEW PAPER.
Factors associated with COVID-19-related hospital death in the linked electronic health records of 17 MILLION adult NHS patients.
Largest study of its kind ever, anywhere.
The power of UK / NHS data, realised.
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Plausible explanation for high disagreement about Exmouth and Exeter East
@inglesp
@fascinatorfun
They cannot agree a model for the Claire Wright supporters from the East Devon part of the constituency. She polled very highly in 2019. Her supporters are almost certainly going to be LD/Labour leaning.
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An important point in a good thread from somebody who knows a thing or two about MRPs
However, the increase in no. of MRPs makes me a bit uncomfortable, because they’re so open to misinterpretation (as is basically any form of modelling).
Differences in vote share by fractions of % point could make a big diff to seat outcomes, as many pollsters have already said.
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Evening all! I've been away from my desk for the day and so I've only just fixed a couple of bugs with how I was showing the results: two seats were incorrectly marked as being won by "oth" candidates, and three close races were marked as ties. Thanks to all who let me know!
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As always, please do let me know if you've got any questions or suggestions!
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@JonnElledge
Hah, yes. Quite a bit of disagreement between different models though. See this from a couple of days ago:
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I've not got around to presenting trends on my site but
@sib313
has been pulling in my data and has some some pretty charts where you can see changes in predictions over time
Looks like the latest prediction from the Economist has decided to join the pack on its prediction of conservative seats:
...
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Drumbeat of mortality: the first release of Python (20th February, 1991) was as close to the date that the first COBOL spec was approved (8th January 1960) as the present day...
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Come work with me...
WE ARE HIRING AGAIN.
We're building openpathology and more features on openprescribing, so we need another RESEARCHER, and another SOFTWARE ENGINEER. We produce fabulous tools, services, papers, and policy shouts.
Fun team, epic mission.
JOIN US.
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I'm looking forward to speaking at
@djugl
on 25/10. I'll be talking about mental models and leaky abstractions, and about how if we are to get the most out of the Djano ORM, we need to understand what's going on under the surface. Londoners: see you there?
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I've just received an email from a user of a little HTTP crawling library I wrote, and it's given me the warm fuzzies.
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This is now on the aggregator:
🚨New MRP poll with
@FindoutnowUK
for
@DailyMirror
and
@GBNEWS
shows
#Conservatives
behind the
#LibDems
in seats:
CON: 60
LAB: 450
LIB: 71
REF: 18
GRN: 4
SNP: 24
PC: 4
OTH: 1
NI: 18
Details at:
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For comparison in 2019 (with notional figures) no candidate won with less than 31%
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And a couple of houses on our road who had Green signs in their garden for the locals in May now have Labour signs up
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Hello world, I've been away from the internet for a week, climbing and dodging the rain on Skye. Many thanks to
@themadwort
for keeping the election prediction aggregator updated.
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Also, you can now show the vote share and majority of the predicted winner (rather than the vote share and majority of a given party) -- click on the column heading to sort
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Of the 123 seats (outside NI) left to declare, only 4 have any models predicting Reform winning (and I'm still baffled by North Cotswolds on this list)
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I'll follow this up with a write-up evaluating how the models performed, and whether there's anything we can learn from the proliferation of predictions
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Throwing toy eels is harder than you might think... Had a great day at the
#elyeelfestival
.
The last throw of the championship of 2016. An amazing
#elyeelfestival
and it continues tomorrow!
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@p_surridge
Here's something I've been fiddling with for my aggregator of predictions: the majority predicted by each model. In this case, the red shows predicted winner (Labour), and the large negative number shows how far behind the selected party (the LDs) are
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