Mich “Don Bacon Democrat” 🥥🥓 (inactive)
@hochulmandered
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Since I’ve made several threads about congressional districts, I have decided to link them all here from now on.
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It’s interesting how the Tony Evers coalition was so different in 2018 than it was in 2022.
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Me if Tim Walz becomes Harris’s VP
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Arizona’s legislative maps are interesting ngl—look at how Trump did in the districts in 2016 vs 2020
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@TXFirst45
I def don’t agree with Brown policy wise but I think it’s awful that people won’t vote for him because of his disability.
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@Billy33121290
I used to edit Wikipedia so I can answer this
It’s bc of copyright laws. I’m guessing McClelland uploaded her own portrait (yes candidates do that) but they pulled the Garrity image from a non copyrighted source.
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Okay, I do not care if ET sh!ts on me for this, but I draw the damn line at people’s remarks about Sam Brown’s face. This is UNACCEPTABLE. Criticize him on the positions, not what he looks like. This is just a new low for ET.
Enough is enough.
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There’s been a lot of discussion lately about Virginia’s 7th Congressional District and the candidates. So let’s talk about it some more. (Thread)
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Anyone want to join a Josh Shapiro supporter gc?
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@CA_Commissioner
Consequences of a right trending state 101 sadly
Hagan delivers for her state and is rewarded by being ousted.
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Can somebody from Kansas explain how she expanded her margin in 2022 while her district was made more Republican
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Prayer circle for Josh Shapiro becoming VP 🙏
🕯 🕯
🕯 🕯️
🕯 🕯
🕯 🕯
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Hot take: Gardner being conservative wasn’t why he lost. He lost because demographic changes in Colorado were very unfavorable to republicans and he was outspent by 52%
This guy was so based; such a shame that he isn't in the Senate anymore
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No Patrick, Colorado and Virginia are not in play for Republicans
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Some universal truths of this election that I think we ought to remember:
• Harris nor Trump are likely to break 300 EVs
• Neither one is going to win every swing state (not even LBJ could do this lol)
• This will not be a landslide for either party lol
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2024 Pennsylvania Senate Prediction
Bob Casey: 51.91% ✅
David McCormick: 46.77%
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@CTDemocrat8
It’s not just that tbh.
Omaha’s suburbs are pretty Republican leaning tbh. Hell, even the city proper of Omaha has a Republican mayor
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Can somebody explain how tf these Wisconsin presidential coalitions changed drastically between 2008 and 2020?
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Hot take: Brian Kemp won the 2018 GA gubernatorial race fairly
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Current House prediction (222 Republicans and 213 Democrats)
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Got bored and drew another fair congressional map…this time I chose Illinois
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Oh she’s cooking
MARY PELTOLA IS NRA ENDORSED, FIRST NRA ENDORSED DEMOCRAT SINCE COLIN PETERSON
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Mom: 💀
Dad: Likely 🟥
Uncle: Safe 🟥
Aunt: Safe 🟥
Paternal grandma: 💀
BF: Lean 🟦
Friend group: Likely 🟦
Mom: Safe 🟦
Dad: Safe 🟦
Sibling: Safe 🟦
Uncle: Likely 🟥
Aunt: Safe 🟦
Paternal grandma: Safe 🟦
Maternal grandpa: Safe 🟥
Maternal grandma: Safe Not Voting
GF: Lol I wish
Friend group: Lean 🟦
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POV: you’re a good candidate running in unwinnable races for your party.
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My 78 year old grandfather has more hair than you bro 💀
Muslims were not given citizenship until FDR stacked the SCOTUS, America's very first immigration law limited citizenship exclusively to Christians.
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Per the request of
@_H3ath
, this was Tammy Baldwin’s coalition by senate district in 2018.
You can definitely see how her strength was in the Obama coalition’s ashes and some suburbanites.
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@CheneyStan
I think Bush’s unpopularity was going to be his downfall tbh.
Obama was way too charismatic and the Obama coalition would’ve walloped any chance he had.
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Favorite Gerrymanders:
1) Massachusetts
2) Illinois
3) Connecticut
Reply with 🐈 for a topic
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2024 Arizona Senate Prediction
Ruben Gallego: 52.80% ✅
Kari Lake: 45.10%
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The people have spoken!
So let’s talk about Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district, and especially Don Bacon in particular. (Thread)
What congressional district should I make a thread on next?
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I actually was bored enough to calculate how the state legislature would’ve gone in 2018 under the new maps
In the Assembly, there would’ve been 52 Republicans 47 Democrats
In the Senate, there would’ve been 18 Republicans and 15 Democrats
How many times I got to tell y'all the
#s
here are WAY unrepresentative due to Republicans leaving so many D seats uncontested, goddamn
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Alright ET, one of these duos has to go.
Which one do you pick?
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2024 Michigan Senate Prediction
Elissa Slotkin: 48.68% ✅
Mike Rogers: 46.34%
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How well does Kamala Harris do in Johnson County, Kansas? How much does she win by?
2016 Pres: R+2.59
2016 Senate: R+16.5
2018 House: D+6.00
2020 Pres: D+8.20
2020 House: D+7.00
2020 Senate: D+7.80
2022 House: D+16.00
2022 Senate: D+1.3
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I may be a Kamala Harris Democrat….
But I am also a Don Bacon Democrat.
If we lose more republicans like him NOTHING will ever get done in Congress again—unless you guys want more Kari Lakes in the house.
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Will Kamala Harris break 70% in Douglas County, Kansas, this year?
2008 Pres: 64.13%
2012 Pres: 60.39%
2016 Pres: 61.13%
2020 Pres: 68.02%
2020 Senate: 68.55%
2022 House: 69.81%
2022 Senate: 60.59%
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However, in 2021, Glenn Youngkin won the 7th by 5.24%. This is largely due to performing well in the rural areas, keeping the City of Fredericksburg under 60%, and winning Stafford County by 11%. (Continued)
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Nobody likes the truth but here it is
The Harris-Trump debate didn’t change minds (even though Harris won) and the Vance-Walz debate won’t change minds either imo (even though Vance is clearly winning)
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2024 Wisconsin Senate Prediction
Tammy Baldwin: 52.09% ✅
Eric Hovde: 47.73%
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In 2020, Joe Biden won Virginia’s 7th by 6.72%. Looks can be deceiving—the reason it is blue is because of two “ballot dump” spots: the Eastern Prince William County portion—Biden won it by 34.56%—and Stafford County, which Biden won by 3.27%). (Continued)
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My final prediction as of now is that Vindman probably wins by about 3-4%. I think the map will look something like this in the end.
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Despite Anderson being a quality candidate, I don’t think he will win. Why? First of all, Vindman has already outraised and outspent Anderson by massive margins. Not to mention Vindman has a massive cash on hand advantage compared to Anderson. (Continued)
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The old version of Georgia’s 6th Congressional District has a very unique history. How it went from voting for John McCain by nearly 26% to Biden by nearly 12% is quite the story.
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She’s quaking rn:
MARY PELTOLA IS NRA ENDORSED, FIRST NRA ENDORSED DEMOCRAT SINCE COLIN PETERSON
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Hot take:
I think Georgia is more likely to vote for Harris than Arizona.
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Ok I gotta admit even as a dem, rigging a race just to help Dems is seriously antidemocratic.
Two things I unironically believe:
1. ActBlue is a laundering scheme
2. Katie Hobbs rigged the 2022 governor race
And I support both of these things.
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@dayoconnor1930
Def but tbf **most** of ET (regardless of partisan line) tends to be upper middle class or rich
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This isn’t happening and we both know it
Two months out, here's my full predictions (<1, 1-5, 5-15, >15)
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@AdmiralChickyFA
@TheAleksee
I mean tbf GA has extremely racially polarized voting and there are a ton of white people there, so not surprised tbh.
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Honestly I agree tbh
I think Youngkin’s popularity will carry Sears over the finish line tbh
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Who is gonna be Harris’s VP
Beshear
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Cooper
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Kelly
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Shapiro
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In a similar case of events, Attorney General Jason Miyares won the district by just 3.84%. This was due to the fact that he won Stafford County and performed strongly in the rural areas of the district. (Continued)
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I should’ve mentioned this above, but Spanberger is retiring to run for Governor of Virginia in 2025.
Anyhow, Vindman has been rather busy at trying to lose. One example of this is his sister-in-law’s very controversial comments on Twitter. (Continued)
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So this was the big announcement?
We spoke hard truths on the campaign trail. It’s time to speak hard truths about the future of America. No spin. Just facts and straight talk in a way that everyone can understand. We have a country to save. Let’s do this. ❤️🇺🇸
@SIRIUSXM
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Choose three members of Congress (can include past and present) who best represent your political views.
Mine:
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North Carolina Gubernatorial Race Prediction
Josh Stein: 47.22% ✅
Mark Robinson: 44.51%
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Guys I’m not going to lie. I wish I hadn’t said “Martha McSally is the worst AZ Republican ever” the night after she lost in 2020.
Because look what fucking happened next.
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@AriannaStaan
I still think Lawler is favored to win
Remember that NY-17 has a massive Jewish population (especially in Rockland County) and Lawler courts those voters VERY well. Jones not so much.
This race will be close but I still think Lawler will narrowly win
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@Faj873
Asian voters will also be crucial in one swing state:
Georgia.
One of the biggest reasons Northern ATL started shifting blue was because of the influx of Asian-Americans to north ATL (especially North Fulton, South Forsyth, etc.)
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What is the wildest campaign logo you’ve seen that ended up in one of the worst losses? I’ll go first:
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In addition, it is a presidential year. This matters due in large part to the decline of split ticket voting in recent years. However, I think a lot of people will split ticket for Harris and Anderson, but not enough for Anderson to win. (Continued)
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This brings up a good discussion about VA-2. What should be one of the most competitive congressional races in the country really isn’t shaping up to be. In 2020, Joe Biden won the district by 2.04%. But in 2022, Republican Jen Kiggans flipped it by 3.40%. (Continued-)
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@sithbuilder1
As someone who used to edit on Wikipedia…it’s super biased to left wing positions and doesn’t want to give platforms to right wing politics
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@NicoDelgadoAZ
@tylerbowyer
@kelliwardaz
@jimmythemole001
@jim_lamon
@JakeHoffmanAZ
@NancyCottle1
She’s still ur AG 🤣 guess ur guy shouldn’t have been so MAGA??
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Another “got bored” congressional map. This time I chose California. The new map is just…not it.
This one respects county lines more while also focusing on VRA compliance
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Got bored so I drew a fair New Jersey congressional map
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Post a random photo otherwise everything goes wrong in October
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Hot take:
A ton of young men were already going to vote for Trump to protest vote against women their same age, and this only adds fuel to that fire.
I don’t think it helps him overall though
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