hari
@haridigresses
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CEO @AutographHR , founded @AbstractOpsCo . Prev founding team & COO @Forge_Global .
Miami, FL
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YC's investment in Airbnb is likely the single best angel investment in history. $20K for 6%, which is ~$2,200,000,000 at today's close.
That is 110,000x MoM, a ~275% IRR compounded over ~11.5 years.
(I know YC <> other "angel" investments but the point holds.)
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So, here we go. I’m moving out of the Bay Area.
This is obviously not a fresh opinion; but the framing may be slightly controversial. My biggest reason is that I believe the Bay Area is no longer the best crucible for the American Dream. 🧵
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Carta’s Conundrum
The current events aren't exactly a masterclass in PR ninja moves. But public statements aside... this conflict of interest was inevitable, and has been brewing for years. If you dig deeper, there’s almost no other way for their strategy to have played out,
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This is broadly stemming from the fact that we traded definitions of “equity”. From “let’s create opportunity for everyone” to “if everyone can’t have it, no one can have it.” We’ve adopted the socioeconomic philosophy of a grade-school bully. And as a result:
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I've been a Huberman detractor in the past, so I've been asked what I think about the article. (J/k -- zero people have asked what I think.)
Huberman's moral and professional shortcomings are both rooted in the same problem: a loose relationship with facts. How can you trust a
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7. Virtue signaling over virtue seeking; neuroticism over optimism.
A well-intentioned person can step one foot out of line and is instantly met with a “how dare you.”
When did we stop being optimistic, and so steeped in our own neuroticism?
When did we trade hope for guilt?
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4. Privilege and success, instead of something to be mindful, have become something to be ashamed of. I have thought for a long time that Atlas Shrugged is an unrealistic straw man full of contradictions. I never thought I’d live in a society that actually approximated it.
merry christmas to everyone except
@garrytan
, who is using his immense wealth to build a false narrative that San Francisco is an apocalyptic wasteland that can only be saved by more cops and harsher sentencing
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In summary: the Bay Area, instead of harvesting the golden eggs, bled the magical goose dry.
Instead of taking that boundless spirit of optimism, tax windfall, abundance of resources, and channeling it into the greatest city-state the world has ever known… we fucked it up.
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2. The political animus. There is a social contract between a govt + citizens. We pay taxes / abide by the law, and the govt provides social services and governs by the will of its people. SFBay has broken this social contract, over and over and over.
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1. It’s hard to feel safe. We’ve experienced 4 home breakins; 1 car breakin; other thefts and near-assaults. I desperately want this fixed but it’s *not possible* for a private citizen to. Which brings us to…
Almost every single one of my female friends in SF has been assaulted.
Spit on, pushed, chased, ponytail yanked (while pregnant, on the train), pulled off a bike, etc.
Yet it seems to be mostly men shouting "crime is down".
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Lot of focus on “worse politics”. My bad, should have framed better. I’m moderate:
- FL politics isn’t perfect. Nowhere is!
- I didn’t vote far left in CA; I reject that blame.
- Far right + left both suck.
- I won’t “vote blue” in FL. I vote for specific candidates, not a party.
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AN ODE TO EARLY EMPLOYEES
I once had someone tell me:
“Hari, you’re essential to this company, and we might have died if not for you. But we’re founders and you’re not, and nothing you do can change that."
That single sentence shapes the entire way I think about the people at a
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3. Environment is hostile to small biz.
You can’t pull yourself up by your bootstraps if you have to wet sign, snail mail 2 forms, pay 7x the cost of straps in filing fees, wait months to find out that your “lace permit” has been declined.
Meanwhile, San Francisco won't let law-abiding citizens open an ice cream store even after they invested $200,000 on rent, fees, and lawyers...
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6. I consider paying taxes a privilege and honor, but you have to agree with the philosophy of where it’s being spent.
In the US, every state is undertaking its own experiment.
The CA experiment was audacious. But when experiments failed, we didn’t pull the plug… we kept going
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Rescinded offers are very painful, just not a good idea.
But key fact getting glossed over in
@coinbase
decision: Severance for *candidates*.
Incredibly classy move, but unheard of. They created precedent.
B/w rock & hard place, this is a bar-raising decision on people policy.
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@litcapital
Customer acquisition and service costs are a meaningful portion of a checking account’s cost structure. With Apple customers, Goldman isn’t incurring either, and can pay out a higher rate.
Apple has basically zero CAC, and is probably eating the customer service costs.
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8. Merit, achievement, and success are becoming a lost cause.
As SF schools remain closed, the School Board:
(a) renamed 44 schools with an embarrassingly bad process;
(b) ended merit-based admissions at Lowell HS w no process;
(c) rejected a very qualified gay man for a parent committee w numerous vacancies.
😳
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@timnitGebru
So many thoughts...
1. It's not "tech bros"' job to fix public transit or homelessness; they just have to be law-abiding taxpayers
2. CA and bay area have had a windfall of property & income tax revenue... and Supes have spent it to worsen outcomes
3. You are a "tech gal"
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Building a startup means feeling bad constantly. When you don’t have PMF, you feel bad. When you do have PMF, everything breaks and your customers might get angry at you and you feel bad. There is no feeling good. (h/t Michael Seibel).
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This is such a cliché, but we’re moving to Miami.
I know there’s plenty to be apprehensive about. Worse politics (from our perspective), its own superficiality, weather issues, critters, guns… but lots to love about food, warmth, service industry, vibrancy.
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@DeanPreston
Dean, you’re impressive.
I didn’t think it was possible for someone to be the Jim Cramer of common sense.
Surely stock picking is hard, but common sense is a bit easier.
But here you are.
How are you literally always on the wrong side of every issue.
A 6-yo could do better.
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How to be an elite startup employee
The "social contract" that helps you become a rockstar employee at (most) high-autonomy, early-stage startups. Distilled from my (imperfect and incomplete) experience serving as an early employee & COO, then a founder.
Practice the subtle art
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Okay, enough is enough.
I’m taking a stand. We need to stop the fear-mongering and bank-running. We need to stop yelling fire in a crowded theater.
- I’m keeping money where it is
- I’m not unduly swayed by “big banks = safer”
- I’m supporting FRB & other ecosystem players by
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5. While uncertainty on the upslope can be an excellent crucible for opportunity, a shining city devolving into bureacracy is the opposite: a symbol of decline.
I think it’s more inconvenient to live in San Francisco or Oakland than when I lived in Chennai or Bombay growing up.
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I wish it was possible to short a university.
Recalled ex-
@SFDAOffice
& former
@sfdefender
@chesaboudin
named founding executive director of new Criminal Law & Justice Center at
@BerkeleyLaw
@UCBerkeley
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Then the pandemic arrived. As everything went online, the mirage was stripped away.
Ideas now stream over the web as freely as movies. And so, the idea of living somwhere for purely professional reasons feels as quaint and nostalgic as my DVD shelf.
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@Molson_Hart
Either you’re baiting or had a brain fart.
In ~3 year groupings:
<=2009, 6 companies
2010-12, 12 companies
2013-15, 17 companies
2016-18, 14 companies
2019-21, 6 companies
Exactly what you’d expect; it takes 5+ years to hit absolute revenue thresholds to become a top company.
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@historyinmemes
“How ‘bout I head back and tell the FTC, oops, Steve let it slip that he’s happy to use big bad Apple anti-competitive tactics to bully Andy’s little ads into an off-market M&A deal.”
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@lessin
I originally thought this (shorted Nvidia last year) then flipped and went long recently.
Just a function of growth. Reasonable to think Nvidia gets to $200B in revenue with increased ebitda to 55%+ in 18mos? Growing 2x+ while Apple is flat EOY25?
I think so.
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I’m sure we’ll find plenty to complain about (or maybe not, because hopefully we’ll become less neurotic 😉). But we’re eager for a new chapter, and mint a new identity for ourselves.
Here’s to the newest corner of the world where upstarts are gathering.
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This is common knowledge in the secondary markets, but less-widely known.
SpaceX has been doing employee tender offers every 6-12 months for the last ~10 years. Their approach solves for the downsides in staying private (fundraising, employee liquidity), while retaining the
@MarioNawfal
SpaceX has no need for additional capital and will actually be buying back shares.
We do liquidity rounds for employees and investors every ~6 months.
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This is not a “fuck SF” post. This is a saddened recap of what could have been. I’ve had a tremendous time here, which had nothing to do with “tech” or “startups”. It had to do with my family, the people, the food, the culture, the debates, the nature.
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Psychosomatic stress indicators I’ve struggled with over the last 8 years as a founder or founding team member:
- Excruciating back pain 2015 (went away after 3-4 months of chiropractor sessions)
- Asthma 2017 (went away after 6 months)
- Panic attacks 1-2x / day 2018 (alleviated
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The tweets doing numbers on Airtable's revenue and "capital inefficiency" are exceptionally frustrating.
Below, I break down:
1. Ground truths in analyzing private companies
2. An example of how to actually think about late-stage companies, by triangulating Airtable's revenue &
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"Microsoft launches Notion competitor!"
"SEC investigates Coinbase!"
This is all noise. Based on 8 yrs as an angel investor (100+ checks), late-stage broker (1,000+ pre-IPO deals / ~$1B), benefiting from my wife picking exceptional companies to work for (Airtable, Coinbase)...
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A couple of friends and I tried out
@Haje
's tool, but the weirdest thing kept happening.
No matter the user or the pitch deck, it only provided one form of feedback. It just kept telling us to "fuck all the way off."
I've moved on from
@TechCrunch
, focusing on helping early-stage startup founders raise money.
If you're raising <$1.5m, check out the AI tool I built to give feedback on your deck: and my guide to all things fundraising:
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@paulg
I've struggled with this in scaling up to just 40 people, and subsequently found my happy path:
1. Only delegate things outside your zone of genius
2. Within your zone of genius, hire excellent executors who can add leverage without having ego about you stepping in
3. Work
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@DeanPreston
Dude, stop.
The war on drugs was not good, but your policies are provably worse:
- coddling of drug dealers (including "safe injection sites" which are just abject nonsense) affected drug addiction 10x as much, and
- establishing SF as a "destination site" for drugs you've made
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~2,500 SPVs each paid
@assureco
$8-15k, for 10 yrs of svc in advance.
They just “reevaluated” the biz & abruptly shut down with ~30 days’ notice. They just… spent (or kept) the $$, rugging customers.
The abdication of moral responsibility / duty of care is absolutely stunning.
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@unpopularvc
Curious how it squares with the European point (also very chemically advanced) but this theory has stuck with me every since I’ve read it: that nutrition is messed up because of chemical runoff that has made its way into our water table and food sources:
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I admire the people who are fighting to fix things. This city and the surrounding region still brim with potential. But that’s not me. I’ve always been a midwesterner, and always felt like a transplant on the west coast.
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@ChrisJBakke
Real talk though, I have this sitting in my bar right now — I can’t tell the difference between this and a Dalwhinnie 15 or a Highland Park 12.
My dad got it gifted to him like 8 years ago and he’s been nursing it since. I try a half ounce sip of it every couple years.
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@nivi
When Jobs did this, it was called a “reality distortion field,” and it was considered to be (mostly) a good thing.
Honestly, isn’t persuading people to see things your way a trait of some of the best entrepreneurs?
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I'm glad someone is willing to call out
@DeanPreston
for his grandstanding, virtue-signaling, empty BS.
At today's
@sfbos
meeting, San Francisco Mayor
@LondonBreed
had some spicy words for Supervisor
@DeanPreston
, a progressive lawmaker who criticized her handling of the city's drug crisis.
See clips of their exchange below. ⬇️
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@bigblackjacobin
@Slate
Artfully written, well-argued, with many sound criticisms of VCs.
Undercut by 80% of it being disconnected from reality; based on a horribly misguided understanding of a) VC and startups, b) behavioral incentives, and c) the fundamental structure of our economic system.
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I think someone should start Coleslaw Ventures… and watch the confusion pour in, as they keep getting confused with Khosla Ventures.
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“FTX Discovers $7.3 Billion in Assets After Bankruptcy”
What.
“FTX's attorney said in a statement, ‘The situation has stabilized, and the dumpster fire is out.’”
WHAT.
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@HarryStebbings
Harry, I respect you but this is a bad take.
I really really dislike the "you're a founder or you're not" dichotomy. There's nothing special about being a founder -- speaking as someone who's been founding team and then founder multiple times.
Any success story has a "founding
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@stephsmithio
• COB to signal 5 pm
• “Tonight” to signal midnight
• EOD / “today” to signal ready for the next morning
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After years of research and building, incredibly excited to publicly launch
@AbstractOpsCo
.
When I was COO at a hypergrowth startup, I spent 100s of hours / yr on admin busywork.
With AO, founders/operators/execs can spend a fraction of the time, but build their company right.
Excited to unveil AbstractOps: the Scaling System for Companies.
We unify data & workflows across Legal, HR, Finance, Compliance, so that founders and execs focus on what matters: product & customers.
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@EricRichards22
Wait — let me get this straight.
You’re throwing shade on the responses, and your stance is that the *$500 is better*??
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@blader
@uenodotco
@iamharaldur
That’s incredible. Not for everyone, but to live ones’ principles that way… damn.
And yeah. One would hope the karmic cycle here treats him right.
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Sent an ACH from the wrong account by mistake.
Was about to ping
@mercury
support when I saw "Urgent? Call 415-###-####."
Called, got a human in <30s, verified account, they pulled back the ACH.
From problem to solution, <3 minutes. This is how it's supposed to work.
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Very excited to share something that has been ~3 years in the works: The PCG Multiple and Calculator.
P/E has never worked for startups, and P/S is highly unreliable too. This is our contribution: a method that prioritizes unit economics & growth.
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For fellow angels, a couple of free
@airtable
templates to track investments.
1. Simple: Add holding, enter entry/exit transactions, add marks-to-market:
2. Partnership: 1 + add bank activity, track capital calls/distributions:
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It's launch day!
At
@AbstractOpsCo
we've we've gotten repeatedly pulled by customers in the direction of a) unblocking HR and b) easing bureaucracy and compliance.
Why? Every time you hire someone in a new state, you have to register with 2-7 different agencies!
(1/6)
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@1Marc
Try building a DCF at some point, and it'll be clear why high growth is an absolutely monstrous lever in higher NPV.
$100m business that is flat is worth $500m
$100m business growing 30% -> $800m-1b
$100m business growing 75% -> $1.5-2b
$100m business growing 100% -> $3-4b easy
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Decoding the Black Box of Compensation, Part II
Introducing , a tool to algorithmically estimate fair compensation — for any title, at any stage of company, anywhere in the world.
After thousands of regressions, analyses and backtests, we’ve determined
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is the worst "market standard" product I have ever seen, and I will fight its usage and adoption with every fiber of my being.
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There have been moments where tech grind founders tried to lecture me on "every great company should be working 6 days a week 12 hours a day in the office."
I was one of the 5 consultants at my office at bcg who was at the top of the "red zone" burnout list. I averaged 80-100
for founders who say they grind but don’t work weekends
you wouldn’t last an hour in the asylum where they raised me
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Shutting down a company is hard.
It's going to be happening a lot in late 2023 / 2024.
There are almost no resources on how to navigate this.
We hope to make this process a little easier today, with Epilogue - how to dissolve a company.
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Sharing a draft SVB crisis playbook for founders to respond in this situation.
Additional contributors plugged into finance / regulation welcome -- shoot me a DM, I'll add you. Goal is to make this a collaborative, living resource.
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@nikillinit
"I can't do that, but how about $5m at $25m post?"
"Post what? Like the cereal?"
"Damn, hard bargain. OK we can do $25m pre."
[Confused silence]
"Can I tell you about our platform team?"
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@jeff82874662
These are classic signs of lots of nervous energy.
I look exactly like this sometimes:
- an extrovert
- in the spotlight doing a podcast
- discussing a topic I'm passionate about
- if I had a couple of coffees that day
- add in a bit of ADHD & OCD
(I've never done hard drugs.)
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Very excited to share more about an angel fund I've been working on with
@aspec00
.
: investing in startups that put work on autopilot. We've worked to make it possible for any accredited investor to participate. ✨👇
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@ChristinaPushaw
Private citizen: “I’m disappointed my employer is supporting X policy”
Public official: “Lol know what we did to the last one? We directed our elected power to single them them out for punishment. Your co knows not to incur our wrath.”
Do you not see the issue
@ChristinaPushaw
?
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@BrianLaManna_
Did pants (and suits, shirts) tailored 2010, TSA pre / Global Entry in 2011, standing desk in 2019, good water bottle in 2023. Lasik not applicable; but should consider a good pillow.
2010 - quality suitcase (Briggs & Riley)
2017 - Vitamix blender
2018 - getting a dog
2018 -
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@adamkovac
This is what he means by "spent time in the US startup world". What an utter fucking joke.
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@emilyinvc
No insider info on Harvey (and only good wishes).
But I don't know how one can get adoption in the legal tech space fast enough to earn that valuation that quickly.
The way you win in legal tech is like DocuSign / Ironclad — long, slow, war of attrition.
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@just_watt
@TrungTPhan
You’re giving EY too much credit, it should be something more amusingly off-base like “at a rate of 5 oranges for 7 children who have chairs, buy 35 more oranges and submit your receipts.”
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If you're a startup founder / leader, you should be nailing but not innovating on Finance, HR, or Legal.
They are critical to scaling, but they're mostly solved problems... but based on the sheer breadth, unfamiliarity, and complexity, it doesn't seem like it.
1. These best
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Unpopular opinion…
I’m def not a doctor or researcher, but I ignore Huberman for a simple reason: speaking of nutrition / mood in black & white is often deeply mistaken.
The body is an insanely complex system. We don’t understand the gut or brain yet. There are no 100% rules.
It feels like
@hubermanlab
has crossed the rubicon and if he suddenly goes all Dave Asprey a large subset of Huberman’s listeners will just go along with whatever he says. Here’s hoping he continues to use his powers for good
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Correction, this was 12 years ago (end of 2008) so the IRR is *only* ~260%.
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@anothercohen
For the first few people, Gusto small group health insurance works great.
After 10-20, a PEO is almost certainly the right way to go. Rippling is usually the best, followed by Justworks, Insperity, Sequoia, etc.
After 100-150, you'll usually get back on standard payroll (UKG,
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How many steps do you think it takes to incorporate a startup? Three? Seven?
Try 30+ 🤯.
So many of these are easy to miss. Many of them are one-way decisions.
So we spent 2+ years building the definitive checklist for incorporation and beyond: Origin.
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@quantian1
Unless they're a specialist surgeon or elite in a field (head of dept), most doctors are kind of useless given info we can now find for ourselves.
I've been misdiagnosed many times and had PCPs parrot uninformed drivel.
As always, 95% of every profession are bad at their jobs.
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@kathrynfiona
@GQMagazine
Some people call focusing on a single object for an extended period of time "meditating," but whatever.
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@nntaleb
@DavidSacks
@DavidSacks
has forgotten more about how a business works than you’ll ever know. Because, you know, he’s actually built things.
And you know what they say: “those who can’t do, write… one-hit wonders and then ride the coattails of that one book for the next several decades
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Everyone's different (some need recharge breaks vs. pull all-nighters vs. 7-day wks). Do what works for you!
But damn, people who operate at a superhuman level for years are fascinating.
I still recall scheduling with
@balajis
in 2017. His opening suggestion was 9 PM on Dec 31.
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@wafoli
“If it doesn’t have enough affordable housing units, it doesn’t help housing affordability.”
🤦♂️
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We've been quiet at
@AbstractOpsCo
until we had a clear identity.
We tear away the curtain of obscure HR / Finance / Legal, to make entrepreneurship — starting, running, scaling a company — accessible to anyone.
Part of that: making our raise accessible.
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My wife has repeatedly informed me that my aptitude in managing our complex finances is the main reason she can’t divorce me 😈.
Me in my twenties: dating a masseuse would be the dream. Free massages!
Me in my thirties: does anyone know any single accountants or tax advisors?
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@awwstn
@atlas
@useStable
Check out if you want a fuller checklist! Pretty much all the stuff you listed is our recommended list :).
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@theashleyray
This is the weirdest takeaway from this thread but… I recognize that intersection! I used to work 2 blocks from that Chase in Chicago River North.
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@mengxilu
In all seriousness though, it depends on your view of the market’s competitive dynamics but if you believe the market is recovering to “standard” multiples, $65b is fair for a $4b revenue company that is reasonably sticky and growing at 35%.
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A couple of friends and I tried out
@Haje
's tool, but the weirdest thing kept happening.
No matter the user or the pitch deck, it only provided one form of feedback. It just kept telling us to "fuck all the way off."
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YOUR STARTUP IS NOT YOUR HORCRUX
A list of 40+ guidelines I've learned about being a founder, while serving as an (imperfect) 2-time founder & CEO, early-employee-COO, advisor, and investor.
CURATE YOUR TRIBE
“Founder-friendly” often means “we’ll do whatever it takes to win a
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Helen Toner and the other authors of this paper can’t even figure out cell alignment in a table, how are they going to figure out AI alignment
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I don’t manage any Assure SPVs now, but those left holding the bag should strongly consider
@AngelList
, especially for SPVs holding primary shares (bought directly from issuing company).
If secondary shares, AL may still be able to help; if not check out
@sydecario
.
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@kavehcyrus
I'm a founder not a VC but I moved to Miami 3 years ago, so I have some thoughts here.
1. I'm not really sure why you're singling out VCs in any way. They're a tiny minority of the exodus.
2. Should the South Bay get mad at SF for "stealing" VCs from Sand Hill Road in the early
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