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Crypto Prop Trader | Run a Software Development Agency @proxiusxyz
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A quote that I believe will resonate with many in this market:
"There are three ingredients for success - aggressiveness, timing and skill - and if you have enough aggressiveness at the right time, you don’t need that much skill.”
- Howard Marks
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Starting Mental Models I Have Found Useful in Crypto Trading
1. Reflexivity
- Concept: Popularised by George Soros, Reflexivity is the idea that market participants' perceptions and actions influence the market itself, creating a feedback loop. In markets, traders' beliefs
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$MYRO 🧲 0.5
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Number one rule of Crypto Trading. Nobody... and I don't care if you're White GCR or if you're Black GCR. Nobody knows if a coin is gonna go up, down, sideways or in fucking circles. Least of all, CT...
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When everything seems to be going up, stay grounded - avoid getting swept up in the euphoria.
My advice for trading alts in these conditions:
1) Focus on coins in trending sectors (AI, Memes, 'VC' Coins, L1s, etc.).
2) Look for those that have previously dominated mindshare in
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First part of my general tips for more favourable market conditions got a lot of love, so here’s part 2 as promised:
1) Size in when you’re early; otherwise, you might find yourself chasing "missed" profits by entering too late.
2) Pay close attention to traders who have been
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Probabilistic Thinking in Trading
Trading is all about making decisions in the face of uncertainty. Like poker, you’re placing bets without complete information, which is why many successful traders have backgrounds in poker or are well-versed in game theory. Both disciplines
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Being Early to the Game.
I was chatting with a few people about the recent surge in TRON activity and how many feel they "missed" yet another life-changing opportunity. In crypto, being early is everything - that’s the beauty of this industry. If you’re switched on at the right
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The market behaves like a pendulum, swinging between extremes of optimism and pessimism. Investors often overreact, either celebrating good news or fixating on bad news, leading to assets being either overpriced or underpriced. This cycle is a constant in markets, with more time
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Few Things that Concern Me about the Current Market:
1) Tie to Bankers: BTC and ETH have lost their self-sustaining narratives and are now at the mercy of the TradFi bid. We’re no longer in control, which isn’t necessarily bad, but it means we must account for this external
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There is a game:
- Not Yet listed on Binance or Bybit
- Listed recently on Epic Games
- Still under 20 mil mcap (Up 6x on my entry about 1.5m ago)
- Has the partners below
Interesting...
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Main reasons why I am (have been) bullish $SEI:
1) New L1, we like shiny coins, history has proven this. No old bagholders, good looking chart, price discovery.
2) Easy comparison, ppl already comparing it to $SOL - simple thesis, Sol playbook.
3) Social power + Strong
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Lack of Narratives -> Create New Narratives
We're currently in a phase where there’s a noticeable lack of compelling narratives driving the crypto market. This isn’t new - after riding a few big narratives for months (like the ETF and AI "bubble"), the market often hits a point
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I was chatting with a younger family member today about some of the higher-level principles I follow in positioning, for most of you this is basic stuff but since I don't want to repeat myself to him (and he will for sure ask again) thought I'd share here.
Timing
Entering too
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The Power of Probabilistic Thinking in Markets and Life
Probabilistic thinking helps make better decisions in uncertain situations, something that has really helped me tremendously in both trading and life.
I’ll draw on ideas from some favourite reads: Gigerenzer’s research on
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We getting chopped meanwhile his Excellency has accumulated over half a billi worth of $ETH this month.
I tend not to bet against him..
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One simple piece of advice for the traders left here: don’t boredom trade. It's one of the most silent drains on PnL I’ve seen.
Work like a lion, not like a cow.
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Some (personal) exciting news!
I'm launching my new software agency, Proxius, specifically focused on custom trading tooling for crypto.
With over 10 years of experience in software development and 2+ years specifically developing in crypto both for private traders &
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GCR not even active but the whiff of him shorting sends shivers down CTs weak spine.
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Wondering why $TIA did so well?
Too complicated for most to understand what it does + no earnings -> no threadors to confuse/deter us + no comps around P/E, just Buy/Sell -> good market with + new coin with no fud -> Buy -> Higher Price -> Price is the narrative.
KISS.
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You don't just get lucky; you create the opportunities for luck to find you.
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Boredom Trading: The Downside of a 24/7 Crypto Market
I've noticed this especially on weekends when the market slows down and traders find themselves with too much time and not enough action.
We often joke about the market never sleeping, being open 24/7, 365 days a year. While
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Study how frontrunning narratives work.
I kept highlighting SPEC and IO.
Their strength was evident even before the market shifted, and once it did, it only added fuel to the fire. These are the kinds of trades that are the bread and butter for a narrative-driven trader.
If we finally hold here this is something to look forward to.
AI coins have been on the down low, may resurrect soon.
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$FLOKI 🫡
@0xRunnerRunner
Yeah the burn next week + the mcap compared to other giants makes it interesting
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Top 10 common Investing/Trading Traps to Avoid:
1) Trying to time the market perfectly instead of focusing on time in the market
2) Letting short-term losses shake long-term convictions
3) Believing what you want/need to be true vs. what is actually true
4) Blindly trusting
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From recent episode of
@0xSteadyLads
with
@Husslin_
"People see the price going down and try to grasp at any straw they can to justify why it’s happening, instead of looking in the mirror and saying, ‘Hey, I put my money in a piece of shit asset.’"
Cracked me up - but spot on.
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It's quite remarkable how many unfavorable factors have converged simultaneously:
- War Escalation: In both Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine.
- Economic Concerns: Weak U.S. economic figures and mounting fears of a recession.
- U.S. Politics: Trump associating himself with
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Had the best PnL day in my trading journey yesterday, some may say its luck. I would strongly argue for myself and the rest of the great crypto friends who nailed the $XRP trade that it was not.
Below are my 8 points for this particular trade:
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A friend recently asked how I’m positioning myself in this phase of the market cycle. My response was straightforward: I’m not committing to long-term positions right now. If you bought during the recent drawdown, I believe that was the local bottom. Events like that are rare -
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"A bull market is very much like being in love. You don't realise its value till it's gone."
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This man literally won in life because he didn't know how to sell.
Lessons in there.
Retardio.
A trader bought 5.1M $WIF with only a cost of $1,749 on Nov 30 and has held it to now, which is now worth $10.9M!
This trader tried to limit sell $WIF on
#Jupiter
, but the order was not filled due to the high limit price.
So he canceled the limit order and transferred $WIF to
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Listened a recent All-In podcast episode where Chamath tells that his "prediction" that Buffett was selling Apple, came form the observation that when Buffett stops mentioning a company in his letters, he's selling.
The rest of the pod was surprised, I found it funny - its a
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Mental Models I Have Found Useful in Crypto Trading (Part 2)
1) Second-Order Thinking
- Concept: Second-order thinking involves looking beyond the immediate effects of a decision and considering its longer-term consequences. While first-order thinking is straightforward and
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Had a few people ask why I’ve held such strong conviction in $FWOG for all this time, so I decided to compile a list for future reference:
- Unique Art: The coin features catchy, highly memeable art created by
@groowut
, which enhances community engagement on X, great for the
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The worst pain in trading comes from the plays you saw but didn’t capitalize on properly.
This usually happens in two ways:
1. Not getting in with enough size.
2. Not holding the trade long enough.
I've struggled with this myself, and what has helped me is identifying the root
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$APU Looks pretty cheap here. If we resume then I’m taking that bet.
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Uptober, a short story.
Price up on a random October, due to seasonality effects, this repeats 1-2 times (one of these may just be a random coincidence), market participants learn a pattern and get programmed to believe up prices during the period.
Due to lower market
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A question I see often overlooked, one that costs many in this market dearly, is: who’s the buyer or seller before and after me, and in what timeframe?
It’s easy to talk about market flows, but it really comes down to this: who are you trading against, and does their timeframe
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@JoshuaDeuk
At some point it’s time to realise it’s an addiction. No system no goal, just the dopamine of being in a trade, doing "something". I know the feeling, been there years ago. It’s important to step back and reassess.
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It’s no secret that AI has propped up the stock market for the past 15-18 months, especially with the MAG7 (Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla) leading the charge. Nvidia alone, riding the AI wave, has surged over 200% this year. These companies have
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All of CT talking about logging off and doing nothing.
But even in a choppy market opportunities exits:
1) $SPEC went up over 3x in a week
2) $TON almost back at ATH with wealth flowing into all of the TON shitcoins
3) $GMX run up from the 10th of May after the proposal
Pay
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A rule that has helped me outperform from May to October is favouring asset selection over market timing. Summer’s low liquidity means the right pick can get pushed more, and with fewer narratives, remaining participants often go all in, driving significant price moves.
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It Ain't What You Don't Know: The Perils of Overconfidence
In the world of investing and trading, there’s no shortage of armchair commentators armed with strong opinions. But as John Kenneth Galbraith wisely pointed out, "There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don't
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The downfall of many in this market comes from the mentality of rushing to make a quick profit and then exit.
The endless stream of posts on your timeline only adds to the pressure to "make it," pushing you toward impulsive decisions. But remember, the market doesn’t care about
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Trading Paradoxes: Parrondo’s Paradox
Been doing some reading over the weekend and fell into a rabbit hole around "paradoxes." A few really caught my eye, so I might turn this into a series of posts. I'll start with one called Parrondo’s Paradox. It’s one of those
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Clear where the bid is.
It’s no secret that AI has propped up the stock market for the past 15-18 months, especially with the MAG7 (Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla) leading the charge. Nvidia alone, riding the AI wave, has surged over 200% this year. These companies have
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Picked up a new DeFi coin on Bybit, seems severely undervalued based on the TVL compared to its competitors.
And highly under the radar on the timeline.
Lets play.
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Notice, every time they sell we care less and less. Soon the jeets will run out of coins and ...
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@0xRacerAlt
@friendtech
My guys and I at
@proxiusxyz
spend last few days heavy testing the proj, found a few issues and have a few suggestions on how to improve both from BE, and FE + can help with DevOps presume you are hosting on a cloud provider we have experience with.
Would
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Picked up some $SPX at .0145 with the meme coins on ETH running @ 15m mcap it seems as good R/R
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People claiming this sentiment is reminiscent of a bottom haven’t been around long enough. There’s still too much doom-posting, humor, and sarcasm on the timeline, which suggests that not many have capitulated yet.
In a real breakdown, the timeline will go dead silent, and
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5 mil mcap $SUI beta backed by Jump and Mysten Labs, interesting..
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Isn't ETH just doing what BTC did after its ETF launch?
Isn't SOLETH doing the same thing ETHBTC did after the BTC ETF launch?
and do we remember what happened after...
Or am I just coping...
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First sign that we are in a good regime:
You are comfortable leaving your longs and going to bed?
Ask yourself that.
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Top Daily performers. Only memes. Literally.
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Everyone wants a pullback but no one wants to slam the buy button when they get one.
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Remember, there are three types of positions you can take:
1) Long
2) Short
3) Flat
In uncertain conditions, where you don’t have a clear edge, there’s only one option you should be in 90% of the time.
Don’t kid yourself about it.
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Heard the phrase, "He was just too early," in a chat today. It's something I’ve been hearing more often in uncertain markets, where people tend to seek validation in others' views. In traditional markets, being "too early" for a fund manager can often feel the same as being wrong
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@0xENAS
I bet this will attract plenty of hate from the bulls, which is ironic since we got the same kind of hate from the bears just before this mini alt run a little over a week ago.
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When people tell you to "touch grass", it's a distraction from your trading focus. It's a subtle psyop.
Instead, here’s what you should do:
- Sharpen your edge: Refine your strategies, your analysis.
- Build on your system: Optimise your tools, routines, and decision-making
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Trading Paradox: The Minsky Moment
An overlooked but counterintuitive truth in financial markets is that prolonged periods of stability often set the stage for sudden, violent collapses. This concept, is known as a Minsky Moment, developed by the economist Hyman Minsky, who
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Get rich and make your friends rich in the process - that's the way.
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Seeing too many indirect attacks on the timeline directed at people who were publicly long the last few days.
You may not agree with their outlook, but give them respect for their transparency and conviction.
I’d rather express my disagreement in the order books.
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Shared these ideas about the general market before a few weeks back, but after catching the end of
@0xSteadyLads
with
@Husslin_
, I felt it was worth reiterating.
Our market has been consolidating within its current range for the past six months. During this period, a significant
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Front running the sell the news event, market participants becoming sharper.
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Bid SEI, SUI, SCA, EDU, and CAT (Bybit Perps) on the dip.
Now we watch it play out.
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Quick post on how I approach trading large risk/reward headlines. I’ve mentioned the idea around trading Durov's release earlier, think its a good example for the post.
First, assess the price action for the day. Ideally, you want to isolate factors around the general majors and
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One thing I don’t see people talk about much, but it’s a common trap many players in this market fall into, is tunnel vision.
You know the feeling - you get tied to a few positions, maybe they’re a bit in the red, and suddenly all your focus narrows in on them. You’re hoping
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The Role of Luck in Decision-Making
Had a message recently asking me how much luck is involved in my decision-making, in the context of markets. It got me thinking about the significant role that luck and randomness play in the outcomes we experience and see during periods of
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Be Prepared, Be Smart, Play Long-Term
Success in new ecosystems comes from preparation. Don't wait until the moment arrives - have a plan in place. Spread your funds across the chains you believe in, keep a set of bookmarks and quick guides for ease of use, and ensure your bots
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Another interesting / under the radar coin I got into today, spot and perp longer time swing, too small cap to drop the ticker but there are ways to guess.
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"Only 2 people can buy at the bottom and sell at the top - One is God and the other is a liar."
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Remember, at the end of the day, the name of the game is moving the money from the market's pocket to your pocket.
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Building positions in CZ related coins, if we resume up here think the market buys the clearest narrative ahead.
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