watchlist for this month + 1~2
INFRA
$SUI , $ZRO , $SAGA
MEME
$POPCAT, , $DOGS , $CAT , $NEIRO
AI (in order that looks the best)
$TAO
Maybe ordinals if they come back with all these upcoming BTC L2
Why I think summer has finally ended and it's a good time to start paying attention to alts
1. We saw a V-shaped recovery after softer payroll data, hinting at a potential bottom for crypto, even though equities closed lower that day.
2. Equities have since rallied hard, which
I've been away from the market for the last few weeks, reflecting on why I made such mistakes, especially when I was clearly telling myself how important it was to manage risk.
I think it was ego. After nailing the bottom around July 6th
Thoughts on trading
I saw Pigeon
@0xENAS
made it to where he is now, starting with $100K.
The main difference between him and me is probably how we kept the money we made from each bull cycle.
its called 'COMPOUNDING'
Printing money is easy when the market is in easy mode
Some of you are still on the sidelines, waiting, and probably many of you will be FOMOing, looking for the next one that is gonna pop.
Here is one fact to remember
There is no second-fast horse.
The first mover after six months of chop will make every market participant focus
Why I think summer has finally ended and it's a good time to start paying attention to alts
1. We saw a V-shaped recovery after softer payroll data, hinting at a potential bottom for crypto, even though equities closed lower that day.
2. Equities have since rallied hard, which
$MEW might be the first cat coin that Koreans love.
In Korea, we have two major exchanges:
1. Upbit
2. Bithumb
The problem is,
Upbit only has major memes like Doge and SHIB, with a daily trading volume of $90M.
On the other hand, Bithumb has $MEW, which is doing as much
Thoughts on leverage trading
Statistically, over 10 years of data, only 4% of spot traders make it and keep it, whereas only 0.4% of perp traders do the same.
The main difference between spot trading and perp trading is the use of leverage and aiming for both directions, which
Looking at the current market and sensing the sentiment from everyone around CT, group chats, and normies from Korea.
I think this cycle will repeat the same pattern as the last two cycles I’ve been through.
We’ll most likely see $BTC go up first without any significant
If you're spending 12 hours a day watching the screen,
staring at the 5-minute chart all day and night, and your balance isn't changing or even if it is, it only changes small.
maybe it's time to ask yourself if you're spending too much time on the market when it's not yet
Took a worst 3h nap, account got hit massively
lost 1/3 of the balance
looks like we going 45~50k
unless macro changes from there and we start going back up, then we are still in 2020.
I'm leaning heavily towards the belief that we are very close to the pico bottom of this bearish move.
There are a few things to look at over the HTF, and I think a 1-week timeframe is good to consider
There are 3 products we need to keep a close look at
1. $BTC - The main
So $NEIRO has more volume than PEPE WIF DOGE POPCAT today and its only 60M market cap?
Find a timeless narrative, ape and work for your bags thats the crypto culture, not rotating to something new every 8 hours.
Bullish ETH? Buy Neiro
Bullish PEPE? Buy Neiro
Bullish Memes?
Many of you reading this might think
Oh my God, I missed out on a 100x with $Degen or
a 20x chance with $Wif long at 10x leverage from bottom
Remember, in trading&investing some win, some lose.
There will be times when centralized exchanges dominate liquidity and vice
The only good part about the current market condition is that there’s no strong narrative dominating everyone’s focus.
This means we have the chance to search for new narratives—potential opportunities—when something fresh emerges. (don't know when)
Since nobody is fixated
Full transparency- This is how my total capital has looked since the BTC ATH in March
Have always focused on the perp book since the beginning, trading in
@kennelcapital
,
@partyhatDAO
,
@apg_capital
Great vibes tuning out CT noise and just trading with the boys.
I think we are in the alt season, but it’s more about smaller alts than larger ones.
It's an on-chain season.
Here is why
Just from looking at the graph, you can see that USDT supply has been increasing rapidly, much better than 3 months ago.
And this has all happened in
I think for this month, it's a good time to look at things more broadly.
Don’t just focus on what everyone is talking about right now ( projects worth billions of dollars).
Instead, look for things that people might be interested in the near future
projects listed on major
Right now, all you need to do is tell yourself one thing: if we are entering an ALT SZN market, with
@HsakaTrades
coming back confirming we will likely have it soon
We will have enough time to position ourselves. We always have and we always will.
Do not FOMO. If you wait,
Each cycle
I learnt a few things about trade and learnt to trade how I trade now
And yes
Sizing matters the most
It's all about sizing
2nd is understanding where we are in the market
3rd is picking the right product
After three cycles, the above three are what I think
I've always been very clear in the process required during market movements like we've been experiencing.
It's all about position sizing and understanding you have to survive through the LTF chop by conserving your stack and only positioning in small amounts while you get
My approach to selecting investments in the market is grounded in an in-depth analysis that I don't often share publicly, mainly because I tend to be lazy about broadcasting my findings. I focus on a few key areas within sectors I'm bullish on after forming a well-considered view
some thoughts on this
China is poised for a multi-generational run, but it’s
tough to trade off China news because you never know
what’s real or how it will play out.
It’s definitely positive for risk assets and China stocks overall.
What it also does is make the crypto
while everyone is obsessed with the US right now
very few are talking about China:
- just had its first rate cut in a year (50bps) with plans for more aggressive cuts
- will inject 800 billion yuan ($114 billion) to boost its stock market
- plans to introduce over 2 trillion
$bnb has one of the cleanest high timeframe charts here imo.
consolidation under prior ATH with a sweep of both the top of the range and bottom of the range and has now reclaimed it.
these setups are T1 setups imo and weve been handed one on an extremely high timeframe.
legit
I'm sure some of you are trying to study the post BTC ETF chart so here's an easy chart for you
There's really 2 things you have to watch:
1. Inflow - interest and aggressiveness of ETF participants
2. Outflow - this is basically 95% GBTC outflows
The two big different thing
watchlist for this month + 1~2
INFRA
$SUI , $ZRO , $SAGA
MEME
$POPCAT, , $DOGS , $CAT , $NEIRO
AI (in order that looks the best)
$TAO
Maybe ordinals if they come back with all these upcoming BTC L2
나도 코인판에 들어오고 지금 코린이들이 겪고 있는것들을 왜 안 겪어보았겠나.
갓분봉매매 해보았고, 가즈아 해보았고, 사기 당해봤고, 해킹 당해봤고, 100토막 나봤고, 유료 리딩방 가입해봤고, 그 리딩만 보고 매매 해봤고, 유료 리딩방 튀는거 당해봤고 뭐.. 그냥 당신이 생각하는 그 모든거
Longed Pepe.
Reasoning
1. Pepe is the meme token for ETH, just like Bonk and Wif were for Sol. Pepe is ETH's meme.
2. For me, ETH doesn't feel like it's going to go below 34k before halving. Even if we get a denial, it will be a bullish one around May. so twap from here for
another scenario here is before going to bed
The more and more it seems, looking at price action on $ETH
In May, even if the ETH ETF gets rejected, it's going to be priced, and we will go higher without any hesitation and properly kickstart the ETH and alt season with all
Bullish Thesis on $DOGE
1. Kabosu (the Dog in the $DOGE logo) is 19 yrs old as of 2024 (close to 95 in dog years)
2. Kabosu is also suffering from leukemia and liver disease and has been sick for quite a while 😢
3. When Kabosu leaves us, Vitalik probably goes to its funeral and
If the payroll marks us at the end of red and the start yellow, then it’s the same play again:
MEME <> AI
MEME = the best proxy for L1 assets.
If you are bullish on $ETH, long $PEPE.
If you are bullish on $SOL, long $POPCAT or $WIF.
If you are
Given how the market is reacting now, I think I was wrong;
it was here, not yellow.
Even yellow will be a painful chop-chop for onions and garlic like me.
something to remind urself if you lost more than 30% last 30 days
Don't go all in with a large size
instead, scale
The market is in the 'no way zone'.
even the brightest guys in the space says no trade
@0xENAS
Why? If equities drag us down, remember that crypto is a short-term risk asset.
HTF is fine; we're going to follow gold, and we're going to the moon.
The last 3 cycles that I've
If the payroll marks us at the end of red and the start yellow, then it’s the same play again:
MEME <> AI
MEME = the best proxy for L1 assets.
If you are bullish on $ETH, long $PEPE.
If you are bullish on $SOL, long $POPCAT or $WIF.
If you are
Have a similar view on alt market
Not sure how much upside is left from now
been taking a lot of profits on levg positions
Perfect set-up for a massive bull market potentially from mid-Aug ~ to Sep
In this market, we won’t see the same type of alt season as in previous years, where everything goes up simultaneously.
Instead, the moves will be more isolated to specific narratives and coins.
I'm very bullish on AI , MEME for the next 1-2 years.
Gaming is in the late
Now that OI is wiped, I’ve looking into relative strength across multiple tokens
One that was a bit interesting is $TIA
Everyone knows I’ve been bearish $TIA since $20 but I think it’s ripe for being the next outperformer whenever we get a relief bounce (like now)
I think for this month, it's a good time to look at things more broadly.
Don’t just focus on what everyone is talking about right now ( projects worth billions of dollars).
Instead, look for things that people might be interested in the near future
projects listed on major
This is inflection point where u should be trading micro cap if ur NW is below 100k.
Becuz most of u will look at below and not trade micro cap onchain.
I think we are in the alt season, but it’s more about smaller alts than larger ones.
It's an on-chain season.
Here is why
Just from looking at the graph, you can see that USDT supply has been increasing rapidly, much better than 3 months ago.
And this has all happened in
$AR part 1 feat.
@aoTheComputer
On February 13, 2024, Sam revealed
@aoTheComputer
- a parallel computer built on top of
@ArweaveEco
.
This is a revolutionary development for $AR, as its main functionality as a storage network wasn’t getting the attention it needed from the
@mrjasonchoi
I remember $PEPE had great marketing before it did a 10x.
As u see from the tweet,
@tangent_xyz
has it in their book .... bullish study
@mrjasonchoi
OFC, that doesn’t mean it’s guaranteed to do another 10x from here, but $AR (AO runs on top of Arweave)
After we've bottomed out, here are a few sectors to keep an eye on in the market
Focus on a few potential sectors in your mind so you're not spreading your portfolio too thin with many products.
You need only a few key plays to nail the market, not hundreds.
KISS
KEEP
IT
It's been an insightful last few days with what I think has been a last-minute political maneuver.
From being certain the ETH ETF "can" would be kicked down the road, we've had what looks like a very sudden shift in narrative, most probably thanks to Mr. Trump.
The next
In this sort of a market climate, you only need to be patient.
There’s nothing wrong with having no position being flat or no view in the market.
U only needs to be patient to avoid round tripping or getting liquidated
80 hour work weeks are overkill
If you're not understanding the moment, you don't need to push to 80 hours or even 126 hours a week
A solid 40-hour work week is plenty with full sleep so your decision-making is at 10/10 with this market
Have a similar view on alt market
Not sure how much upside is left from now
been taking a lot of profits on levg positions
Perfect set-up for a massive bull market potentially from mid-Aug ~ to Sep
For
#alts
I think we see something like this
But I believe this will be the general path for the market and that at the minimum there will be a few weeks of alts catching a bid
And as usual, no charts/tickers, etc for them. I only tweet btc, eth, and sol charts
Red line isnt
with evil VC tokens like $SEI $TIA bouncing more 50% from the low
$ZRO, $TAIKO, and potentially $ZK, look like good candidates to lead the new shiny, low-float token with strong VC backing.
do not forget about this
I'm noticing a lot of evil VC tokens not much dipping around here after the initial 30~40% bounce from last Friday
Leaning towards that we gonna have VC token is good starting this month
do not forget about this
I'm noticing a lot of evil VC tokens not much dipping around here after the initial 30~40% bounce from last Friday
Leaning towards that we gonna have VC token is good starting this month
I think for this month, it's a good time to look at things more broadly.
Don’t just focus on what everyone is talking about right now ( projects worth billions of dollars).
Instead, look for things that people might be interested in the near future
projects listed on major
$MEW might be the first cat coin that Koreans love.
In Korea, we have two major exchanges:
1. Upbit
2. Bithumb
The problem is,
Upbit only has major memes like Doge and SHIB, with a daily trading volume of $90M.
On the other hand, Bithumb has $MEW, which is doing as much
looks good to load backup
reasoning
1. meme local topped and doing correction now
2. meme and AI were exchanging liquidity back and forth (meme tops out AI will be bid )
3. have done good corrections before the NVDA conference which might lead to more liquidity injection
at current altcoin prices, looks like the first resistance point based on how much sideline money was available to allocate
we are at a pivotal point in my opinion, especially with btc still arguably being spy beta + saylor's pet
$JTO - the Solana EigenLayer
In January,
@buffalu__
, the founder of
@jito_sol
, wrote an article about
#Stakenet
, potentially the EigenLayer on Solana.
The best exposure you can have is by holding $JTO, and it's already gaining traction due to the $W
wtf is stakenet?
StakeNet is a new primitive for Solana that allows one to build autonomous, decentralized programs that allocate resources across a network of node operators.
StakeNet was originally designed for Solana liquid staking protocols. Today, every Solana liquid
Chilling for few weeks now with this pvp market
Sometimes it is really important to shut ur switch off and go away from ur screen for some times to sharpen ur mind
gonna go back to my desk soon
80 hour work weeks are overkill
If you're not understanding the moment, you don't need to push to 80 hours or even 126 hours a week
A solid 40-hour work week is plenty with full sleep so your decision-making is at 10/10 with this market
I think we are in the alt season, but it’s more about smaller alts than larger ones.
It's an on-chain season.
Here is why
Just from looking at the graph, you can see that USDT supply has been increasing rapidly, much better than 3 months ago.
And this has all happened in
The AI sector is catching up MEME sector
AI in red
MEME in orange
Very sure we have a 2x market cap increase of the overall AI sector in a few weeks ~ month
1. Solana is super saturated with so many memes, including celeb memes topping Sol Casino.
2. $Sol looks like it’s going to range.
3. $ETH looks bullish; ETH/BTC looks bullish.
4. Base chain seems mostly to benefit from the above market condition
5. Coinbase Smart Wallet
Whenever flow weakens for a few days, those with big unlocks tends to underperform
This is why keeping an eye on fundamental is very important when everything looks good
There were a few we had our eyes on: $TIA $ALT $ARB
$TIA - Rode $TIA since November but its (hidden)
looks good to load backup
reasoning
1. meme local topped and doing correction now
2. meme and AI were exchanging liquidity back and forth (meme tops out AI will be bid )
3. have done good corrections before the NVDA conference which might lead to more liquidity injection
Despite being bullish in the AI sector as a whole, rotations are inevitable, and in the short-mid-term timeframe, we believe mindshare will flow from $ASI ($FET + $AGIX + $OCEAN) to other major AI projects like $RNDR and $AR
It's 🧵 time :D